COVID-19/Coronavirus Information and Support Thread (see OP for useful links)

[Barra333]

Neither did Australia for the AZ vaccine. I had my first shot last Thursday and my next one isn't until 17th June... 12 weeks later

Crazy. Our 'official' timeline on Pfizer and Moderna is 16 weeks now (not sure about AZ, probably the same).

 

[Danoff]

My former colleague Pablo (and my friend Daniel) published a paper last week that showed that human rhinovirus (a common cold virus) can block SARS-CoV-2 replication, and this was reported worldwide, including on the BBC...

https://academic.oup.com/jid/advance-article/doi/10.1093/infdis/jiab147/6179975

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-56483445

But while, at first glance, it might seem like a good news story, it got me wondering about whether this was a good thing or a bad thing. Pablo and other authors on the paper study virus-virus interactions, and it is well known that lockdown restrictions aimed at reducing SARS-CoV-2 transmission have also resulted in dramatic drops in infections of other viruses, including influenza and common cold viruses... indeed, I don't think I've ever gone this long without a bout of the cold...

This had me wondering if this might partly explain the lack of transmission of SARS-CoV-2 associated with school children. Indeed, other coronaviruses are already in circulation and can, in theory anyway, possibly result in people developing antibodies that also protect against SARS-CoV-2. This study suggests that rhinoviruses can protect against a severe SARS-CoV-2 infection by a different method, but the point is that the lack of other viruses circulating could actually end up being a bad thing, esp. if, like rhinoviruses, they only result in mild illness (but confer strong protection against a much more dangerous virus).

I must admit, I don't understand the topic well enough to know, and indeed, I don't think it is even that well understood even by those whose careers are based on answering such questions... but it does at least make some logical sense to me to be slightly concerned at the prospect of schools going back while SARS-CoV-2 levels remain quite high, but other viruses, such as common cold viruses, have been taken out of circulation.

I expect, however, that most kids didn't/don't have such protection from other viruses to start with, so the effect may be (and probably is) almost negligible... but I would not like to be wrong about that.

Obviously I have no training in this field whatsoever, but maybe we can make reasoned guesses about what it might mean. Mine would be that the timing of the initial wave back in spring goes somewhat against it making a huge difference, since colds are more common in winter so many people would've had recent exposure. That said, I think it's logical that cross-immunity could have mitigated the severity of that wave and it could have been even worse otherwise. Either way, it's good to see a study publishing some results on it.

I was sceptical that allowing children back to school in September was wise, and noisily critical of them staying in school during the November lockdown. The data shows that cases rose in school children far more than in other age groups during the term, peaking at 3% prevalence for teenagers (ONS). So hardly a lack of transmission amongst them. The question mark is over how much that transmission spilled outward - my hunch is that it spread to parents and then onward, and the only counter to that was a study that found firstly that it hadn't particularly spread to teachers and secondly that schools rates weren't that different to 'locality' rates (which IMO didn't really answer the question).

With this return to school, I dunno. It's certainly not obvious that it's a bad idea, even though cases have almost doubled amongst the 11-16 year olds (or will have; the data lags). I can see the logic in having a few weeks back followed by the easter hols as a 'firebreak', just to see how things go. The important result of this experiment will be to see how cases amongst parents are affected. Then we ask does that matter as much with all over 50s soon having had a jab? Since an infection path from child to a hospitalised case would in most cases take a few steps, and hence some time, could this prove to have been a well-timed gamble?

I would guess that a lot of school age children have had the most up-to-date versions of the "cold" viruses that circulate compared to the adult population. My kids usually get sick about 5 times over the winter. I get every single one of those as well, so with just a few years of school it's easy for 10 or more viruses (or virus versions) to roll through our house. So if some kinds of recent colds can block covid, kids are probably some of the best prepared demographic to have up-to-date antivirus software. Adults without children, on the otherhand, may have gone years with only a couple of viruses, and may be more susceptible.

My kids have been quarantined twice due to exposure to a positive covid case in their classroom. In neither case did anyone else in the classroom get a positive test, despite a covid positive kid being present in the classroom for some portion of the day. The elementary school has had half a dozen classes quarantined over the last month. No student-to-student transmission, though perhaps some staff-to-staff. The daycare we use has had classrooms down for quarantine a number of times, one time included what appeared to be a teacher-to-teacher transmission inside the classroom (despite masks). In no cases that I'm aware of was there a student-to-student or student-to-staff transmission, or even a staff-to-student transmission.

The elementary school has concluded that their safety precautions are sufficient to be effective at preventing transmission at the school, and that the students appear to be bringing it to school from home. I think they're right. The kids who test positive are getting a heavy dose at home, but seem to be less likely to provide that heavy dose to others at school. School is probably the best circumstance for keeping the kids masked and distanced. The parents seem to be more lax when it comes to mask wearing and distancing with others. Keeping the kids home seems to be likely to result in increased transmission. That was our governor's conclusion, and it seems to be holding up.

 

[Outspacer]

My kids have been quarantined twice due to exposure to a positive covid case in their classroom. In neither case did anyone else in the classroom get a positive test, despite a covid positive kid being present in the classroom for some portion of the day. The elementary school has had half a dozen classes quarantined over the last month. No student-to-student transmission, though perhaps some staff-to-staff. The daycare we use has had classrooms down for quarantine a number of times, one time included what appeared to be a teacher-to-teacher transmission inside the classroom (despite masks). In no cases that I'm aware of was there a student-to-student or student-to-staff transmission, or even a staff-to-student transmission.

The elementary school has concluded that their safety precautions are sufficient to be effective at preventing transmission at the school, and that the students appear to be bringing it to school from home. I think they're right. The kids who test positive are getting a heavy dose at home, but seem to be less likely to provide that heavy dose to others at school. School is probably the best circumstance for keeping the kids masked and distanced. The parents seem to be more lax when it comes to mask wearing and distancing with others. Keeping the kids home seems to be likely to result in increased transmission. That was our governor's conclusion, and it seems to be holding up.

What I've been saying about schools applies mainly to what we'd call secondary school, 11 to 16 year olds plus a 'sixth form' of 16 to 18 year olds. For primary school (6-11) it certainly looked very different to the older group during September last year (ONS) - case numbers appeared to be lagging behind the cases in parent age groups - but then in October they picked up and by the end of term were about double. Secondary school case rates ended up about triple the 35-49 year age group. I just can't see any way to explain that amount of disparity unless there was transmission within the school age groups, whether at school or out of school, and I think the opportunities for direct spread from kid to kid outside school would be more limited (might explain some of the difference between teenagers and younger kids though).

With this return to school in the UK there has been massively increased testing, and I think better and firmer advice on precautions, both of which should hopefully make a difference. So far primary school ages look fine, but secondary are ticking upwards (ONS) - possibly leading a rise in cases amongst 35-49 year olds, but it's too early to tell.

(The ONS surveys are based on randomised testing, so should not be affected by the increased testing of schoolchildren).

 

[Danoff]

What I've been saying about schools applies mainly to what we'd call secondary school, 11 to 16 year olds plus a 'sixth form' of 16 to 18 year olds. For primary school (6-11) it certainly looked very different to the older group during September last year (ONS) - case numbers appeared to be lagging behind the cases in parent age groups - but then in October they picked up and by the end of term were about double. Secondary school case rates ended up about triple the 35-49 year age group. I just can't see any way to explain that amount of disparity unless there was transmission within the school age groups, whether at school or out of school, and I think the opportunities for direct spread from kid to kid outside school would be more limited (might explain some of the difference between teenagers and younger kids though).

With this return to school in the UK there has been massively increased testing, and I think better and firmer advice on precautions, both of which should hopefully make a difference. So far primary school ages look fine, but secondary are ticking upwards (ONS) - possibly leading a rise in cases amongst 35-49 year olds, but it's too early to tell.

(The ONS surveys are based on randomised testing, so should not be affected by the increased testing of schoolchildren).

Yea the age of school children plays a big factor in their susceptibility to it. I don't have a lot of experience with the local middle and high schools here, so I couldn't tell you whether what I said holds there. I can tell you that those schools have not been so quick to return to in-person learning. Also it's not as critical for them to do so.

 

[TB]

I think a lot of people have no side effects after the 1st dose of pfizer. The 2nd dose is a different matter, because your immune system responds to the virus. If you've had covid, or another coronavirus, you might have more of a response to the 1st dose.

Since I had absolutely zero reaction to my first shot, I'm mentally preparing myself to be laid out next Tuesday night and Wednesday.

 

[Rossell2]

First shot of the AZ vaccine had me completely wiped out - shivers, heat flares, massive aches, and couldn't manage a bite to eat. My arm kept aching more and more until I couldn't so much as grip with it and just had to hold it in place.

Took 2 paracetamol and went to bed at 9pm. Thankfully I've woken up feeling like myself.

Whew - I knew I was fine, but man I felt weird. My advice is cancel any plans to be a normal human directly post jab.

Same gig as me mate. My recommendation to people is to clear your schedule for 24 hours after your jab.

 

[Blitz24]

Since I had absolutely zero reaction to my first shot, I'm mentally preparing myself to be laid out next Tuesday night and Wednesday.

Drama queen.

 

[UKMikey]

Speaking of drama queens...

 

[Jezza819]

Speaking of drama queens...

Good, then I hope mine is #666.

 

[CodeRedR51]

In line to get my first of two doses. Can confirm it is Moderna. Scheduled for dose 2 on April 27.

 

[UKMikey]

A friend of mine had his jab on Friday and is complaining of tiredness and really bad headaches quite unlike anyone else I know who's been inoculated. I hope he takes my advice to contact his doctor.

 

[McLaren]

Speaking of drama queens...

Biden's? LOL, it's supposed to be Bill Gate's.

God, get it right Marjorie.

 

[Joey D]

A passport? Lame. I wanted a 5G microchip so I could get better mobile service at my house. I could be a walking signal booster.

 

[Barra333]

The tracking would be nice so that you could retrace your steps after going out on a bender.

 

[McLaren]

A passport? Lame. I wanted a 5G microchip so I could get better mobile service at my house. I could be a walking signal booster.

My buddy says Gates sings him to sleep every night after his 2nd shot. It's nice.

My appts. are set for 4/2 & 4/23 with Pfizer in my town.

 

[CodeRedR51]

In line to get my first of two doses. Can confirm it is Moderna. Scheduled for dose 2 on April 27.

2.5 hours later: sore arm, feeling a bit down on energy. That's about it. Some cramps from time to time here or there but that's probably me just getting old.

 

[Dotini]

Some pretty wild swings recently in this Covid chart. It doesn't look overly reassuring.

 

[Joey D]

Some pretty wild swings recently in this Covid chart. It doesn't look overly reassuring.

New variants, fewer restrictions, and more people/governments no longer taking this seriously. It's not really wild to see, in fact, it was expected.

 

[Dotini]

New variants, fewer restrictions, and more people/governments no longer taking this seriously. It's not really wild to see, in fact, it was expected.

Okay then. Do you think this roughly parallels the Spanish Flu pandemic? It was all over in what, 3 years? Or is this a totally unlike situation?

 

[Nexus]

https://www.theguardian.com/austral...hort-of-4m-vaccination-target-by-end-of-march

Have to hand it to our government, at least they're consistent about failing to meet their own targets.

 

[CodeRedR51]

2.5 hours later: sore arm, feeling a bit down on energy. That's about it. Some cramps from time to time here or there but that's probably me just getting old.

6 hour update: Arm is super sore now. Energy is a bit better after I had some PIZZA! Might have trouble sleeping tonight since I am a left side sleeper and I got the shot in my left arm. I am right handed and didn't want my right arm dead. Should be interesting.

 

[Tornado]

Scheduled my appointment this morning. Go in on the 19th for Pfizer #1.

 

[Darla Starch]

Scheduled my appointment this morning. Go in on the 19th for Pfizer #1.

Ironically, that's the day I get my second. Got the first one (also Pfizer) today, no symptoms yet.

 

[Joey D]

Has anyone read the study from the WHO that says SARS-CoV-2 originated in animals? While it's certainly plausible that the virus does have zoological origins, I have some serious issues with how the investigation was conducted. They didn't even bother to investigate the lab. There was also data withheld from the investigating team as well.

I don't want to play into conspiracy theories, but even CNN reported that it's likely the Chinese scientists who helped author the report were on the government payroll. CNN has also reported that they had to get their findings approved by the government before releasing them. I don't know how true that is since it seems to be a theory at the moment instead of actual proven facts. There are also claims that in the weeks leading up to the outbreak that many workers at the lab had a mysterious illness. I want to stress this isn't proven at the moment, or if it is, I can't find it. But it is being reported by more than one media outlet.

The real question that needs answering though is why would China feel the need to hide anything? Shouldn't they want to get to the bottom of this? If it was a leak from the lab, which does happen, then it should be a wake-up call to all labs to reevaluate their protocols. I'm sure it's a combination of not wanting to appear weak or face any sort of consequences, but by withholding that information they could be doing far more damage.

If it was a lab leak, then it's likely the researchers have a great deal of information that could be vital to learning about the virus. The more we learn, the better chance we have at developing effective treatments and potentially figuring out mutations.

I don't really want to accuse China of anything, but they're certainly not helping their case any by withholding information. Also, shame on the WHO for not doing proper science and investigating all hypotheses. If you want an effective study you need to rule out all variables and they seemingly left a gigantic variable by not investigating the lab. I get it that China may not have allowed them access, but that's something you report, not ignore.

I've been wary of the WHO through this whole thing, especially how they bought into China's BS at the start of the outbreak but I was hopeful things were turning around. Now, I'm not so sure I can trust them again and this time it seems less like being duped and more like willfully ignoring things.

 

[Blitz24]

Has anyone read the study from the WHO that says SARS-CoV-2 originated in animals? While it's certainly plausible that the virus does have zoological origins, I have some serious issues with how the investigation was conducted. They didn't even bother to investigate the lab. There was also data withheld from the investigating team as well.

I don't want to play into conspiracy theories, but even CNN reported that it's likely the Chinese scientists who helped author the report were on the government payroll. CNN has also reported that they had to get their findings approved by the government before releasing them. I don't know how true that is since it seems to be a theory at the moment instead of actual proven facts. There are also claims that in the weeks leading up to the outbreak that many workers at the lab had a mysterious illness. I want to stress this isn't proven at the moment, or if it is, I can't find it. But it is being reported by more than one media outlet.

The real question that needs answering though is why would China feel the need to hide anything? Shouldn't they want to get to the bottom of this? If it was a leak from the lab, which does happen, then it should be a wake-up call to all labs to reevaluate their protocols. I'm sure it's a combination of not wanting to appear weak or face any sort of consequences, but by withholding that information they could be doing far more damage.

If it was a lab leak, then it's likely the researchers have a great deal of information that could be vital to learning about the virus. The more we learn, the better chance we have at developing effective treatments and potentially figuring out mutations.

I don't really want to accuse China of anything, but they're certainly not helping their case any by withholding information. Also, shame on the WHO for not doing proper science and investigating all hypotheses. If you want an effective study you need to rule out all variables and they seemingly left a gigantic variable by not investigating the lab. I get it that China may not have allowed them access, but that's something you report, not ignore.

I've been wary of the WHO through this whole thing, especially how they bought into China's BS at the start of the outbreak but I was hopeful things were turning around. Now, I'm not so sure I can trust them again and this time it seems less like being duped and more like willfully ignoring things.

I don't think they were allowed to report that because then they will be accused of being anti-Chinese and probably be blackmailed or something.

 

[RacingGrandpa]

Speaking of drama queens...

"Let's analyse that.." then does no analysis but declared it fascism or communism. But I would really love to hear how she not only made that jump but also decided that fascism and communism is apparently the same thing...

Is it also fascism or communism when a store wants people to wear shoes and shirts to enter?

 

[Dotini]

Has anyone read the study from the WHO that says SARS-CoV-2 originated in animals? While it's certainly plausible that the virus does have zoological origins, I have some serious issues with how the investigation was conducted. They didn't even bother to investigate the lab. There was also data withheld from the investigating team as well.

I don't want to play into conspiracy theories, but even CNN reported that it's likely the Chinese scientists who helped author the report were on the government payroll. CNN has also reported that they had to get their findings approved by the government before releasing them. I don't know how true that is since it seems to be a theory at the moment instead of actual proven facts. There are also claims that in the weeks leading up to the outbreak that many workers at the lab had a mysterious illness. I want to stress this isn't proven at the moment, or if it is, I can't find it. But it is being reported by more than one media outlet.

The real question that needs answering though is why would China feel the need to hide anything? Shouldn't they want to get to the bottom of this? If it was a leak from the lab, which does happen, then it should be a wake-up call to all labs to reevaluate their protocols. I'm sure it's a combination of not wanting to appear weak or face any sort of consequences, but by withholding that information they could be doing far more damage.

If it was a lab leak, then it's likely the researchers have a great deal of information that could be vital to learning about the virus. The more we learn, the better chance we have at developing effective treatments and potentially figuring out mutations.

I don't really want to accuse China of anything, but they're certainly not helping their case any by withholding information. Also, shame on the WHO for not doing proper science and investigating all hypotheses. If you want an effective study you need to rule out all variables and they seemingly left a gigantic variable by not investigating the lab. I get it that China may not have allowed them access, but that's something you report, not ignore.

I've been wary of the WHO through this whole thing, especially how they bought into China's BS at the start of the outbreak but I was hopeful things were turning around. Now, I'm not so sure I can trust them again and this time it seems less like being duped and more like willfully ignoring things.

Sometimes, for the greater good, it's better that the public not be subjected to an ugly truth.

 

[Touring Mars]

The real question that needs answering though is why would China feel the need to hide anything? Shouldn't they want to get to the bottom of this? If it was a leak from the lab, which does happen, then it should be a wake-up call to all labs to reevaluate their protocols. I'm sure it's a combination of not wanting to appear weak or face any sort of consequences, but by withholding that information they could be doing far more damage.

Simple - because if they admitted to it (and hence would also be tacitly admitting that they covered it up too), then they will be on the hook for a ridiculous amount of compensation, which they wouldn't (and likely couldn't) ever pay, which in itself could end up in international sanctions against China and a trade war of epic proportions ensuing. The trouble with that is that the global economy relies on China for a whole lot of things, and a full scale economic war between China and any parties seeking compensation (e.g. US, Brazil, UK, the EU for starters) would probably end very, very badly.

The world may never know if the pandemic originated through not-entirely-natural means, but on the other hand, it would face a massive problem if it were established to be the case that there was human error, misadventure or even malice involved.

The fact is, though, that it is largely a moot point. Even if it were established to be the case that the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic would not have happened but for some shady goings-on in a Category 4 virus lab in Wuhan, nature is still more than capable of sending equally dangerous viruses at us. The task for mankind is to figure out how to most effectively deal with viruses, and, ironically, that means more Cat. 4 virus labs and virus research...

 

[Joey D]

Simple - because if they admitted to it (and hence would also be tacitly admitting that they covered it up too), then they will be on the hook for a ridiculous amount of compensation, which they wouldn't (and likely couldn't) ever pay, which in itself could end up in international sanctions against China and a trade war of epic proportions ensuing. The trouble with that is that the global economy relies on China for a whole lot of things, and a full scale economic war between China and any parties seeking compensation (e.g. US, Brazil, UK, the EU for starters) would probably end very, very badly.

The world may never know if the pandemic originated through not-entirely-natural means, but on the other hand, it would face a massive problem if it were established to be the case that there was human error, misadventure or even malice involved.

The fact is, though, that it is largely a moot point. Even if it were established to be the case that the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic would not have happened but for some shady goings-on in a Category 4 virus lab in Wuhan, nature is still more than capable of sending equally dangerous viruses at us. The task for mankind is to figure out how to most effectively deal with viruses, and, ironically, that means more Cat. 4 virus labs and virus research...

It seems like horrible science though. The WHO, who supposedly conducted a scientific study, blatantly ignored a plausible hypothesis. If the WHO didn't categorize it as a study or categorized it as a study as to whether SARS-CoV-2 had zoological origins, then it would be different. But here is the World Health Organization saying that it's very likely that the pandemic started because a virus jumped from animals to humans. I can't accept that because they didn't even bother to look at a glaring variable that's also plausible. If it'd looked at the lab and determined that no it didn't start there, backed it with evidence (even if the evidence was bad), and then released the report it might be more acceptable, but all things point to the WHO just not investigating.

I don't believe the virus was engineered since the current evidence suggests it wasn't or even that it was purposely released, but I do believe it very well could've been leaked due to poor lab protocols.

Honestly, the whole thing just reeks of the WHO pandering to China and that's not good. The WHO should be impartial and look out for the great good of the world's health and not do whatever a government tells them to do. Honestly, if it turns out to be true that the WHO is purposely withholding information to please Beijing, it could have just as devastating of an impact on the world as a full-blown trade war. If enough countries agree what the WHO is doing is bunk, then they will pull out of the organization and potentially create their own partnership. This leaves us with two competing organizations that are based on politics and not science. This opens the door to a greater number of future world health problems since whatever the political situation is at the time will dictate what does and doesn't get reported.

I know it's wishful thinking, but I want the human race to take all the steps it can to prevent, or rather delay, something like this happening again. I know pandemics are unstoppable and so are viruses, but there are actions we can take that limit their impacts or, at the very least, allows us to develop treatments so these pandemics aren't as serious. In the grand scheme of things, SARS-CoV-2 isn't as serious as other pandemics that have swept the globe in terms of health effects, but it's still something that's left a huge impact on the world's population in terms of disruption.

I know politicizing science is nothing new, but it really is going to cause massive problems in the very near future. Climate change is a perfect example of this since instead of figuring out solutions, you have the people who control the purse strings debating about whether it's real, even though there are mountains of evidence that shows that it is.

The best comparison I can think of with all this is Chernobyl. The Soviets did their best to cover it up, but in the end, it didn't work. However, once the trust came out it led the globe to develop better, safer, and more robust nuclear power plants while reducing the chance of a catastrophic accident. If the outbreak did start in the Wuhan lab, then we can use that as a case study to develop better lab protocols that led to better, safer research. I fully agree that research will increase as a result of the pandemic since right now we're not only trying to figure out how to contain this pandemic but hopefully prevent future ones. Due to this, it's important that safety protocols are revised so there's not an unintentional leak somewhere else that causes global havoc.

In the end, China is going to be on the hook regardless of whatever the WHO reports. Many of the world powers are already blaming them and the fallout is going to happen.

 

[Outspacer]

Has anyone read the study from the WHO that says SARS-CoV-2 originated in animals? While it's certainly plausible that the virus does have zoological origins, I have some serious issues with how the investigation was conducted. They didn't even bother to investigate the lab. There was also data withheld from the investigating team as well.

I don't want to play into conspiracy theories, but even CNN reported that it's likely the Chinese scientists who helped author the report were on the government payroll. CNN has also reported that they had to get their findings approved by the government before releasing them. I don't know how true that is since it seems to be a theory at the moment instead of actual proven facts. There are also claims that in the weeks leading up to the outbreak that many workers at the lab had a mysterious illness. I want to stress this isn't proven at the moment, or if it is, I can't find it. But it is being reported by more than one media outlet.

The real question that needs answering though is why would China feel the need to hide anything? Shouldn't they want to get to the bottom of this? If it was a leak from the lab, which does happen, then it should be a wake-up call to all labs to reevaluate their protocols. I'm sure it's a combination of not wanting to appear weak or face any sort of consequences, but by withholding that information they could be doing far more damage.

If it was a lab leak, then it's likely the researchers have a great deal of information that could be vital to learning about the virus. The more we learn, the better chance we have at developing effective treatments and potentially figuring out mutations.

I don't really want to accuse China of anything, but they're certainly not helping their case any by withholding information. Also, shame on the WHO for not doing proper science and investigating all hypotheses. If you want an effective study you need to rule out all variables and they seemingly left a gigantic variable by not investigating the lab. I get it that China may not have allowed them access, but that's something you report, not ignore.

I've been wary of the WHO through this whole thing, especially how they bought into China's BS at the start of the outbreak but I was hopeful things were turning around. Now, I'm not so sure I can trust them again and this time it seems less like being duped and more like willfully ignoring things.

That pretty much sums up how I feel about it, aside from I tend to be harsher on China - it is simply the nature of the authorities there to prevent loss of face, even over things that other countries wouldn't find embarrassing at all. And the way it's done is often to obfuscate just enough so a precise accusation can't be made.

We're not alone of course, with 14 countries including US and UK expressing concerns over the report, and Tedros responding to a query about the lab investigtion by saying that he did “not believe that this assessment was extensive enough.”

I couldn't spot any particular reason in the report to rank a lab incident as "extrememly unlikely", or rather, as a far lower likelihood than intermediate host, let alone lower than the "possible" cold chain route.

Cold chain seems the least likely to me, simply because nothing has been found at the other end of any chain. It's unclear in the later finding, when someone did get infected by that route, exactly how or when the virus got onto the package. The likelihood of a distant worker being infected enough to contaminate a package without also causing infections in coworkers, friends and family, or such a cluster going unnoticed has to be very small. Not impossible, but the chain of unlikely events needed is clearly longer than other possibilities.

For the intermediate host possibility, I found this paragraph interesting:

Although the role of civets as intermediate hosts in the outbreak of severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) in 2002-2004 had been favoured and a role for pangolins in the outbreak of COVID-19 was initially posited, subsequent epidemiological and epizootic studies have not substantiated the contribution of these animals in transmission to humans. The possible intermediate host of SARS-CoV-2 remains elusive.

Now that may be technically true, however I thought there was considerable circumstantial evidence for the civet route for SARS and that they remain considered very likely to have been the intermediate host involved. Clearly the same kind of circumstantial evidence does not exist for pangolins and SARS-CoV-2. So I'm wondering whether that is a deliberate downplaying of the civet likelihood or just an acknowledgement that we may never get proof of the source.

Simple - because if they admitted to it (and hence would also be tacitly admitting that they covered it up too), then they will be on the hook for a ridiculous amount of compensation, which they wouldn't (and likely couldn't) ever pay, which in itself could end up in international sanctions against China and a trade war of epic proportions ensuing. The trouble with that is that the global economy relies on China for a whole lot of things, and a full scale economic war between China and any parties seeking compensation (e.g. US, Brazil, UK, the EU for starters) would probably end very, very badly.

The world may never know if the pandemic originated through not-entirely-natural means, but on the other hand, it would face a massive problem if it were established to be the case that there was human error, misadventure or even malice involved.

The fact is, though, that it is largely a moot point. Even if it were established to be the case that the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic would not have happened but for some shady goings-on in a Category 4 virus lab in Wuhan, nature is still more than capable of sending equally dangerous viruses at us. The task for mankind is to figure out how to most effectively deal with viruses, and, ironically, that means more Cat. 4 virus labs and virus research...

Fair comment, and I'd agree it's largely moot in that sense. There isn't any real possibility of proving that it came from the lab (or elsewhere).

In practice, a good outcome would be to improve procedures in relevant labs (with continual audit) and to improve monitoring of transported animals, specifically for any virus that binds to ACE2.

So diplomatically, it's a fine line between pushing for those things to happen and creating the best environment for them to be done openly.