COVID-19/Coronavirus Information and Support Thread (see OP for useful links)

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Joey D
How are we even determining exponential growth? I've actively tried researching it but everything is based on confirmed cases and that seems like a terrible data set to determine anything. I fully believe the number of confirmed cases will rise at an exponential rate up to some plateau, but in terms of actual cases? I have no idea. We could very well be at a slow growth curve or we could be at a growth curve that sees all of the US infected by the end of the month.

So while I think it's important Trump is aware of this, I'm not sure he should be making decisions off of incomplete data. If he does, it could end up being more damaging to the country than the virus itself.
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I think that we'll see a huge number of increases once we get more in.
Because right now my state has 1,000 tests frozen waiting to be tested and it's already overwhelming the health system.

With that I think we'll still have more into next month and then there is the fear of "secondary" spread once things start to return back to normal.
Is what China is fearing right now that because they don't have no "new" cases their being prepared for an increase of "new" cases once they start lifting it's restrictions.
 
Dennisch
Really? We're in the middle of a global pandemic, caused by Winnie and friends who tried to hide the initial outbreak, silencing those who tried to warn the rest of the world, and then silenced all outgoing media about Wuhan and surroundings and you need to ask why?
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What's the reason for China to report >3,000 deaths but not report 30,000, 300,000 or 3 million, or whatever numbers you believe in?

I think people who say so just can't accept the idea that those 'wild Asian commies' might be handling the situation better than the white Europeans.
The Chinese quarantine measures were harsh, but they helped. Facts say that. China used to recieve aid from the rest of the world a month ago, but not PRC itself provides aid for Japan, Italy and others. Hainan prepares to open for tourists again. Why would China lie about the situation getting better if it's not? They already have experience with epidemics, they mobilized all their healthcare resources when things turned serious, and sent the army to isolate the infected areas (despite of some sensible people whining "how dare they? It violates their freedoms, human rights, blah blah").

Compare this to how Italy (and other European states) reacted. When first cases were discovered, they didn't take it seriously enough (it's just another flu, innit?) and lost the precious time. At last, Italy, Spain and others started locking down their cities like China, but it was so late...

If you say "Winnie caused the pandemic", then it's OK to say that Conte spread it all over Europe.
 
Joey D
How are we even determining exponential growth? I've actively tried researching it but everything is based on confirmed cases and that seems like a terrible data set to determine anything. I fully believe the number of confirmed cases will rise at an exponential rate up to some plateau, but in terms of actual cases? I have no idea. We could very well be at a slow growth curve or we could be at a growth curve that sees all of the US infected by the end of the month.

So while I think it's important Trump is aware of this, I'm not sure he should be making decisions off of incomplete data. If he does, it could end up being more damaging to the country than the virus itself.
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One of the biggest testers per capita outside China has been Italy. Never enough resources for "adequate" testing of course, but other European countries have been testing comparatively highly per capita.

One of the biggest indicators is, unsurprisingly, geography.

Viruses spread easiest in populous cities. London is apparently 3 weeks ahead of the rest of the UK in spread of the virus (which is unnerving frankly). America is chock full of populous cities. New York is a good indicator of where the US is going. The thing about exponential curves is that unless the circumstances change significantly, they keep getting more and more exponential. It's a balancing act, sure, but no-one in Europe has got that right early enough, with every country having reacted too slowly (easy to say with hindsight of course). Please don't copy us!
 
Rage Racer
What's the reason for China to report >3,000 deaths but not report 30,000, 300,000 or 3 million, or whatever numbers you believe in?

I think people who say so just can't accept the idea that those 'wild Asian commies' might be handling the situation better than the white Europeans.
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I don't think anyone thinks of the Chinese commies as "wild". The advantage they have is an authoritarian political & social structure which gives them an advantage in controlling the activities of their citizens.
 
Biggles
I don't think anyone thinks of the Chinese commies as "wild". The advantage they have is an authoritarian political & social structure which gives them an advantage in controlling the activities of their citizens.
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This. It's a well known fact that the Chinese government controls the media to some extent. It's kind of funny that the guy asking these questions is from Russia :sly:
 
Rage Racer
Compare this to how Italy (and other European states) reacted. When first cases were discovered, they didn't take it seriously enough (it's just another flu, innit?) and lost the precious time. At last, Italy, Spain and others started locking down their cities like China, but it was so late...
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It doesn't matter how European states responded.* What matters it that the ****ing Chinese government did what it normally does: Trying to cover up the situation and silencing people. That is what brought us here. If you can't see that, our propagandamachine isn't working in Mother Russia.


*it does, but not in this discussion about China ****ing over the world.
 
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Zychotic1
I was quoting exactly that episode of Xfiles on facebook earlier...

here in Kentucky nobody is taking it very seriously...
panic buying is becoming a serious issue here.

many populated work places are shut down but virtually everything else is buisness as usual except the bars are closed... no body seems willing to stay in their homes for more than an hour...
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Great. Can't wait to drive home from upstate NY to KY this weekend
 
The US economy can rebound just as quickly as it dropped according to analysts. The stimulus checks will help based on recent history and the 2008 recession. Hope people will consider spending the majority of it at independently-owned businesses. Amazon and Walmart do not need the money nearly as bad as your favorite deli/coffee shop or local service-based business. Let's kick this thing in the bud as quickly as possible by taking personal responsibility now. As a side note, I just saw some interviews from idiot spring breakers in FL, selfishness and idiocy are alive and well.
 
Netflix to throttle streaming quality in Europe by 25%

Ostensibly due to a surge in usage due to those stuck at home because of covid.

Me, with no Netflix account but an abundance of DVDs and ripped files on a hard drive:

source.gif
 
Touring Mars
Although the actual number of infections is impossible to know - and will be far higher than the confirmed cases - I'm not sure why there would be much difference in the growth rate between the two.

Clearly, how badly one is afflicted with COVID-19 depends on one's age and pre-existing health condition... but in terms of likelihood of contracting the virus in the first place, I'm not sure that this is dependent on anything other than social contact, and thus I would except that the difference in growth rate between confirmed cases and all (mostly undiagnosed) cases is minimal.
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The growth rate of the confirmed cases is solely reliant on how many tests are being performed, the growth rate for the actual spread of the virus is completely unknown. That's the difference I see between the two and why I'm having such a hard time accepting that people are being infected at an exponential rate. Also, what point are people starting the exponential growth curve at? If it's January 20th when the first case was confirmed, that's a period of 59 days and the curve ends up larger than the population of the planet. To hit everyone in the US, it takes just about 29 days. If it's doubling once every two days, we should be at roughly a 66% infection rate for the entire country right now and I'm having a hard time accepting that.

While I do believe the virus is spreading and will infect many people, I don't think it's spreading as quickly as predictions are making it seems. To me, this just plays into the panic that's already present in society and it's not doing anyone any good. The horrible data, articles, "studies", etc. floating around is almost as bad as the virus itself, if not worse.
 
DDastardly00
The US economy can rebound just as quickly as it dropped according to analysts. The stimulus checks will help based on recent history and the 2008 recession. Hope people will consider spending the majority of it at independently-owned businesses. Amazon and Walmart do not need the money nearly as bad as your favorite deli/coffee shop or local service-based business. Let's kick this thing in the bud as quickly as possible by taking personal responsibility now. As a side note, I just saw some interviews from idiot spring breakers in FL, selfishness and idiocy are alive and well.
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Now granted yes that would be ideal.
But think of having oh say 1,000.
You have bills to pay and I bet 75% of that would go for that.
Now granted if those situations can be forgiven based on that you got let go for an unknown time then you have to then put that into what you can try to do.

Since lets see.
For me for one month my expense is around 750-800.
Without getting any food.
So if I get the proposed "1,000" that leaves me with 200 or so for food for the next 2 weeks or how ever long it goes.

As of right now we're trying to shut everything down for "2 weeks" and everyone is saying oh this will help curve the spread but once it's done there is that chance of a "secondary" wave and then having it impact us one year from now.

So if we can actually all be smart and do all this the way it should be and not be those idiots having spring break and ignoring their orders to self-quarantine then it would be more logical and better. But we always have that one person (or few) that ignore it.
 
Joey D
The growth rate of the confirmed cases is solely reliant on how many tests are being performed, the growth rate for the actual spread of the virus is completely unknown. That's the difference I see between the two and why I'm having such a hard time accepting that people are being infected at an exponential rate. Also, what point are people starting the exponential growth curve at? If it's January 20th when the first case was confirmed, that's a period of 59 days and the curve ends up larger than the population of the planet. To hit everyone in the US, it takes just about 29 days. If it's doubling once every two days, we should be at roughly a 66% infection rate for the entire country right now and I'm having a hard time accepting that.

While I do believe the virus is spreading and will infect many people, I don't think it's spreading as quickly as predictions are making it seems. To me, this just plays into the panic that's already present in society and it's not doing anyone any good. The horrible data, articles, "studies", etc. floating around is almost as bad as the virus itself, if not worse.
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My coworker was watching that Insider Access (or whatever it is with Billy Bush). He had a Dr. on there literally saying, "You're most likely gonna get this, and you're going to be hospitalized" in response to younger people who may feel immune. Hold up, aren't most cases mild and it's likely you can get through the virus without being in the hospital? This message from him sounded like it went completely against one of the biggest dangers of the disease, over-taxing the healthcare system, like if you get it, you need to be in a hospital. Didn't seem to actually make much of an effort to promote social distancing to avoid that, but I tuned out after that until they showed a bunch of celebrities being "bored" at home.

Granted, it's garbage TV, but hearing a proclaimed Dr. say you're going to be hospitalized if you get this just creates unnecessary fear, that it's a death sentence.
 
McLaren
Granted, it's garbage TV, but hearing a proclaimed Dr. say you're going to be hospitalized if you get this just creates unnecessary fear, that it's a death sentence.
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That has been the go-to, scare people into acting the way you want them to. This is partly why we should be coming down so much harder on the elderly and otherwise vulnerable. Because they are the ones we need to be scared and holed up. We can't convince 20 year olds that they're going to die if they go to spring break, because they're not going to.

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I have seen some numbers that suggest that a lot of people who are young are being hospitalized, but the numbers were presented in a way that wasn't helpful yet. I'm willing to be convinced otherwise - that young people are indeed being hospitalized at a high rate. So far I've not seen it.
 
Eunos_Cosmo
Fatality rate in Wuhan has been revised down to 1.4%

What explains the high mortality rate in Italy? I'm guessing far, far more people have it than have been tested - probably on the order of 100,000+ cases.
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The average age of the population of Italy is higher than most countries as well, so a larger proportion of people are in the high risk age groups. I've heard estimates that about 20% of the country's population is over 50 years old. That may be a bit much, but it is known that a lit of younger people have left the country over the last decade.
 
Danoff
That has been the go-to, scare people into acting the way you want them to. This is partly why we should be coming down so much harder on the elderly and otherwise vulnerable. Because they are the ones we need to be scared and holed up. We can't convince 20 year olds that they're going to die if they go to spring break, because they're not going to.

-----------------------------

I have seen some numbers that suggest that a lot of people who are young are being hospitalized, but the numbers were presented in a way that wasn't helpful yet. I'm willing to be convinced otherwise - that young people are indeed being hospitalized at a high rate. So far I've not seen it.
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I went for a bike ride today (didn't stop, didn't touch anything) and noticed that at least half of the people out and about (and there were many, many people out and about) were older than 60. Granted, about 1 in 4 Marin County residents is older than 65, so that isn't too surprising....
 
EngieDiesel
The average age of the population of Italy is higher than most countries as well, so a larger proportion of people are in the high risk age groups. I've heard estimates that about 20% of the country's population is over 50 years old. That may be a bit much, but it is known that a lit of younger people have left the country over the last decade.
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Danoff
...and smoke.
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EngieDiesel
And also may live in remote villages where large hospitals are several hours away, now that I think of it.
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Have heard this is what contributed to much of China losing many; lots of their men love to smoke heavily, even into old age.

Edit*
Los Angeles, quickly followed by all of California, is now under a 1-month, 24-hour quarantine. They believe a national one is coming according to TMZ.
L.A. County officials have issued a “safer at home” order for the county. Just moments after the announcement was made, Gov. Gavin Newsom followed the county’s lead and issued a statewide stay-at-home order.

Both orders go into effect Thursday night.
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https://losangeles.cbslocal.com/202...ials-issue-safer-at-home-order-for-residents/
 
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Liquid
Me, with no Netflix account but an abundance of DVDs and ripped files on a hard drive:
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At least my Netflix will go back up to 4K when the throttling ends. Your DVDs are stuck at HD forever.

ROAD_DOGG33J
25% discount?
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I'd be happy if they just charged me the HD rate during the throttle period. Unlikely as I still get four slots instead of two though.
 
Eunos_Cosmo
I went for a bike ride today (didn't stop, didn't touch anything) and noticed that at least half of the people out and about (and there were many, many people out and about) were older than 60. Granted, about 1 in 4 Marin County residents is older than 65, so that isn't too surprising....
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Seriously. This is mostly for them, and as far as I can tell, they're out in force.
 
R1600Turbo
Hoping this doesn't happen here. I would likely be off without pay and there is absolutely no way I could afford that.
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Could you possible file for unemployment for the duration of this mess and get your job back when it's all over? I know that's ideal and not likely but something like that?
 
DesertPenguin
Could you possible file for unemployment for the duration of this mess and get your job back when it's all over? I know that's ideal and not likely but something like that?
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Most states are fast-tracking unemployment claims right now, but if a national quarantine goes into effect I reckon every system is going to get overloaded extremely fast. Plus, y'know, there probably won't be anyone working to process those claims.
 
R1600Turbo
Hoping this doesn't happen here. I would likely be off without pay and there is absolutely no way I could afford that.
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Do you work for a company with more than 500 employees?
EngieDiesel
Most states are fast-tracking unemployment claims right now, but if a national quarantine goes into effect I reckon every system is going to get overloaded extremely fast. Plus, y'know, there probably won't be anyone working to process those claims.
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It will take a few weeks, but it will be done. I'm quite positive the Unemployment office will be considered an essential business under the govt.
 
R1600Turbo
Yes
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Then I share your concern as well. A year or so ago, my company merged Sick Days into our PTO structure so you can use a PTO for whatever you want. Problem is, I just took a 2-week vacation and have only 2 days PTO left that can be seen as "sick days".
 
McLaren
Then I share your concern as well. A year or so ago, my company merged Sick Days into our PTO structure so you can use a PTO for whatever you want. Problem is, I just took a 2-week vacation and have only 2 days PTO left that can be seen as "sick days".
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We recently had two mandatory days off, unpaid, and were not allowed to use PTO to make up for it. I assume this would be the same.
 

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