COVID-19/Coronavirus Information and Support Thread (see OP for useful links)

[Blitz24]

I'm still not getting it. How can we accurately estimate the spread of the virus based on confirmed cases, which is already flawed data to begin with? I know the US test data is crap, but if what posters in this thread are saying is true, then the UK's testing data is bad as well (as are many other countries). I honestly don't know how other countries are doing because they're not part of the dashboard that I look at daily.



I still have a hard time believing there's exponential growth. Say we go back to March 1st, at that time there were 84 confirmed cases in the US. If we assume doubling every day, that means today we should be at 88 million or about a quarter of the US. As it stands today, we're at 14,332 confirmed cases. If my math is right (and lord knows it might not be) that's about a 30% per day increase.

I'm really trying to accept the scientific explanation, but the data just seems so incomplete that I'm not sure how they're making any determination.



I think the big problem is that every model, study, graph, etc. is being presented like it's the truth when really it's someone's best, educated guess based on the data we currently have. I think the average person probably doesn't understand the science isn't an exact art and there are a ton of variables that can move the number any which way. I think it was Vox or Slate or The Hill (one of those questionable media outlets) that had an article with graphics that said something like the "the math spells catastrophic consequences for the US". While some math certainly does, it seems like that article did a really good job cherry-picking facts to fit their story's narrative.

Not telling the whole story and skewing the facts is just making people more frightened and panicky. It's also having a devastating impact on the economy (which could last longer than the virus's impact).

Honestly, past the local health department and the university I work for, the best coverage I've found about COVID-19 is on SirusXM's Coronavirus Radio (yes they have a station, Channel 121). They're not afraid to say "we don't know" and they almost always present stuff with caveats that whatever outcome they're talking about is based on x, y, z data set. I can appreciate any media outlet that simply goes we're not sure because in my mind that's better than giving incorrect or incomplete data.

* I know tone sometimes gets lost in written form, so please don't think I'm being combative here. I legit don't understand and I'm trying to do so.

This is the correct take. Way too many politicians are sounding like they are experts when they could know as much, or possibly less, than the people they are representing. I'd rather people say "I don't know" than lie to my face.

 

[baldgye]

This is the correct take.

Or; This is the take I like the most.

 

[Joey D]

Or; This is the take I like the most.

No, it's the actual correct take. Saying "I don't know" is perfectly acceptable and how these things should be addressed if, in fact, we don't know.

 

[Dotini]

It seems to me that what is required going forward is the application of much vaunted human adaptability - a whole variety of measures to control & minimize the spread of the virus & control & minimize the impact on the economy & people's lives. Ultimately that will include treatment & vaccines.

I think this is a pretty good thesis. The adaptability of the present generation(s) of humans will be reality tested as never before. What comes after treatments and vaccines? Will the world be the same old place?

 

[baldgye]

No, it's the actual correct take

I think the big problem is that every model, study, graph, etc. is being presented like it's the truth when really it's someone's best, educated guess based on the data we currently have.

I'm not sure in the UK this is true (the US Gov with Trump isn't something I begin to understand so I've given up trying). The (UK) government has expressed that it isn't sure and refers to what its model suggests without saying this or that empirically.
I think shrugging and saying "i duknow mate" isn't true either, because they can make educated assumptions/assessments and come to formulate some sort of plan, which I think most countries around the world are doing.

But, if you don't know, how can, you know the 'correct take'?

I've been critical of the UK Government for their approach, but I don't know if it's the best thing or not. All I can do is look at the ever changing situation and come to my own conclusions as best I can. Which is what most governments are doing, with far more evidence and experience. That said, the UK Gov also havn't shown us their modelling, so how can we know what data they are using, or assumptions they are using to create that model?

 

[Famine]

That said, the UK Gov also havn't shown us their modelling, so how can we know what data they are using, or assumptions they are using to create that model?

https://www.gov.uk/government/group...mergencies-sage-coronavirus-covid-19-response

 

[mustafur]

Over a month? What I read about is that the first man with unknown kind of pneumonia was hospitalized on December, 1st, 2019. On December, 26th, the virus was indentified, and they found out that it's not a random influenza or anything, it's a new disease never seen before. And on December, 31th, China alerted the WHO about the outbreak. Where did you count "over a month" here? Where can I read your story?


"If so many people died of CoViD-19 in democratic Italy, then it can't be that communist China with denser population has fewer deaths!" - is this your way of thinking?


Li Wenliang? Arrested?
He was called to the police and given a warned against spreading false rumors, that's all. Please learn more about the subject before accusing a country of 'arresting the doctor'.

My line of thinking is the country with no rule of law(if they want to charge you with something they can make up anything and give you a fake yes man judge) and only approved media is allowed in the country because it breaks "Social harmony" means the country cant be trusted with anything.

I guess it takes someone from a country with fake elections to take dictators at their word.

 

[baldgye]

https://www.gov.uk/government/group...mergencies-sage-coronavirus-covid-19-response

only posted today no wonder I missed it!

 

[Dotini]

World's 5th largest economy locked down until further notice.
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/19/cal...-stay-at-home-effective-thursday-evening.html

• California Gov. Gavin Newsom on Thursday issued a statewide order for all residents to ‘stay at home’ amid a coronavirus outbreak. The stay home order is in place till further notice.
• Essential services will stay open, however, such as pharmacies, grocery stores, takeout and delivery restaurants, and banks.
• According to the order, Californians in 16 critical sectors are to continue working despite the order. Those include emergency services, energy and food and agriculture.

California estimates that more than half of the state — 25.5 million people — will get the new coronavirus over the next eight weeks, according to a letter sent by Gov. Gavin Newsom to U.S. President Donald Trump.

 

[Joey D]

But, if you don't know, how can, you know the 'correct take'?

Because the correct take on a situation can be "I don't know" if you truly don't know, which I don't think anyone actually does right now. At this point, COVID-19 is still new and the number of people that have it is relatively low, there's just not enough data to make anything other than the best guess at it.

 

[Claudio 81]

Because 'China'. They have been withholding the truth, and some care about virtu signalling and making themselves believe people say certain things because they're white. No, its because China is a commie country that arrested the Doctor that broke the story of this virus.

That's because "White people" are moronic and too concerned about falsely being called racist by the virtu signalling lefty MSM and puppet celebrities who have too much time on their hands.

https://voiceofeurope.com/2020/03/i...orence-mayor-urged-italians-to-hug-a-chinese/

I absolutely agree with the article you posted. You must understand that in Italy left-wing parties see racism in every corner of the country. The mayor of Milan (obviously left-wing) said: "Milan, millions of inhabitants. We do miracles every day. We have unthinkable rhythms every day. We bring important results home every day because we are not afraid every day. Milan does not stop". And the governor of the Lazio region (guess he too from the left) went to Milan to have an aperitif and returned infected with coronavirus (at least this excellent news). When this story ends here in Italy there will be deal with these infamous ...

 

[novcze]

....the virus was indentified, and they found out that it's not a random influenza or anything, it's a new disease never seen before...

maybe they've seen it before because some molecular geneticist suggested that virus escaped from Wuhan laboratory, because part of its code doesn't look like natural variant

 

[Touring Mars]

@Joey D Short answer because I'm expecting a call, but...

A 30% increase every day IS exponential growth - so is a 5% day-to-day increase (it's just a different exponent).

The day-to-day significance is in how fast that growth rate will start leading to serious problems - and in the case of the US and UK, we are maybe only a week or at best 2-3 weeks away from a very serious problem indeed. As such, the time to act is now - the only way to bring down that exponential rate is to physically separate people and prevent transmission. As Italy is showing, that exponential rate can still stay the same until well after a lockdown is imposed.

On modelling: Ironically, when real data is impossible to gather, modelling is not merely a 'best guess', but is probably closer to the truth than the actual data (i.e. modelling/theory is likely to be more accurate than 'confirmed cases', which we know for a fact are a huge underestimate of true numbers of infections).

 

[DesertPenguin]

I'm doing my part by staying home and being unemployed

 

[Danoff]

Again with the agism?!

I don't doubt that there are many older people who have been & continue to be dismissive of the coronavirus. But to put it in perspective take a look at these not old people:

Those not old people are not the ones who are going to take down our hospitals when they start getting sick. This is not ageism.

 

[Touring Mars]

Those not old people are not the ones who are going to take down our hospitals when they start getting sick. This is not ageism.

These guys should be more worried than they are though.

The fact is that someone in their 20s is very unlikely (around 1/500) to die from COVID-19... but... around 1 in 20 of those infected will end up requiring critical care. Requiring critical care is not in itself a terrible thing... but it is if there isn't any critical care available.

If enough people get ill, then everyone who requires hospital care for anything is in dire trouble. The hospitalisation and critical care requirements of younger people is a lot scarier than the mere death rate, which is ironically giving younger people a false sense of security.

Add into this that the more irresponsible young people are with their own health, the more likely they are to infect others and exacerbate these issues for everyone else too.

In other words, it would be good if everyone did their bit and took as few chances as possible.

 

[Danoff]

These guys should be more worried than they are though.

The fact is that someone in their 20s is very unlikely (around 1/500) to die from COVID-19... but... around 1 in 20 of those infected will end up requiring critical care. Requiring critical care is not in itself a terrible thing... but it is if there isn't any critical care available.

If enough people get ill, then everyone who requires hospital care for anything is in dire trouble. The hospitalisation and critical care requirements of younger people is a lot scarier than the mere death rate, which is ironically giving younger people a false sense of security.

Add into this that the more irresponsible young people are with their own health, the more likely they are to infect others and exacerbate these issues for everyone else too.

In other words, it would be good if everyone did their bit and took as few chances as possible.

My guess is that there is a strong negative correlation between the people on the beach and the portion of people in their 20s who would require critical care for COVID-19. I'm hazarding that the party-goers are going to contribute quite little to hospitalization. We need them to stop partying because we need them not to transmit it to people who would require critical care. And those are the very same people that seem to refuse to isolate themselves.

I'm literally throwing away thousands of dollars, weeks of vacation, and upending everything, isolating my children from their schoolmates, trying to home school 3 kids and keep a full time job... and for what, so that I don't get sick? No. If anything I'd like to get this thing and get over it.

I'm doing it so that we can keep my neighbor and her husband, who believe God protects them from everything, and are ready to ascend to the pearly gates whenever they're called, can stay out of the ER.

I'm sacrificing to protect people who don't care to protect themselves. I'm not happy about it.

 

[Ether]

I'm sacrificing to protect people who don't care to protect themselves. I'm not happy about it.

If I could add to this sentiment, I fear we're also going to lose a few liberties in the process. The phrase "never let a crisis go to waste" comes to mind as my home state (NY) was essentially just put on full lockdown. And not just NYC, the whole damn state.

 

[Dotini]

I'm sacrificing to protect people who don't care to protect themselves. I'm not happy about it.

Do you think this is a character-building experience? Perhaps it should, because you have an opportunity to demonstrate your adaptability, leadership, humanity and other virtuous qualities that you possess in abundance.

 

[Blitz24]

I am staying home as well as I was doing self-quarantine but was told today that the person who I was potentially exposed to tested positive. So far the person and I are asymptomatic. I am on day 11 since exposure.

 

[Danoff]

Do you think this is a character-building experience? Perhaps it should, because you have an opportunity to demonstrate your adaptability, leadership, humanity and other virtuous qualities that you possess in abundance.

I try to learn and improve from everything I experience in life. It has nothing to do with the situation, this is a typical strategy used to dismiss the hardships that young people face. "It's good for you". "Builds character". "You'll be better for it". In other words, suck it up and deal with it.

Actually the group that needs to build character, and suck it up and deal with it, is the group that is actually in danger of killing themselves and many others by flooding hospitals. That's the group that needs to suck it up, be better for it, demonstrate leadership, demonstrate humanity, demonstrate virtuous qualities.

Instead, that group is taking a very casual approach with their lives. Which would be perfectly fine if they would stay home from the hospital when they're dying.

 

[Biggles]

I try to learn and improve from everything I experience in life. It has nothing to do with the situation, this is a typical strategy used to dismiss the hardships that young people face. "It's good for you". "Builds character". "You'll be better for it". In other words, suck it up and deal with it.

Actually the group that needs to build character, and suck it up and deal with it, is the group that is actually in danger of killing themselves and many others by flooding hospitals. That's the group that needs to suck it up, be better for it, demonstrate leadership, demonstrate humanity, demonstrate virtuous qualities.

Instead, that group is taking a very casual approach with their lives. Which would be perfectly fine if they would stay home from the hospital when they're dying.

Do you have some actual evidence of this other than the anecdotal story about one of your neighbours?

 

[Danoff]

Do you have some actual evidence of this other than the anecdotal story about one of your neighbours?

Mostly anecdotal stories and the stories of others. I have more stories if you want, I've posted some of them. The guy with the breathing tube in bustling checkout line at costco, the old lady that put her keys in her mouth after using the touchscreen checkout...

It's purely my observation (and the observations of others). My neighbor is the one who is deeply religious. She believes in the healing properties of prayer. I'm sure she believes that prayer can protect her from coronavirus.

 

[Biggles]

Mostly anecdotal stories and the stories of others. I have more stories if you want, I've posted some of them. The guy with the breathing tube in bustling checkout line at costco, the old lady that put her keys in her mouth after using the touchscreen checkout...

It's purely my observation (and the observations of others). My neighbor is the one who is deeply religious. She believes in the healing properties of prayer. I'm sure she believes that prayer can protect her from coronavirus.

So it's a lot like the racist attitudes propagated by people who have lots of anecdotal evidence of lazy African Americans or rapist Mexicans? You should be ashamed of yourself.

 

[Danoff]

So it's a lot like the racist attitudes propagated by people who have lots of anecdotal evidence of lazy African Americans or rapist Mexicans? You should be ashamed of yourself.

Oh? Old people are being careful? I guess I'll send my kids to school then, and we can get back to work. Silly society, making a fuss over nothing. Old people will be just fine since they'll take care of themselves.

You're trying to build a strawman.

 

[Michael88]

600 people died today, just in Italy and that mostly in one province. That's a lot.

I am staying home as well as I was doing self-quarantine but was told today that the person who I was potentially exposed to tested positive. So far the person and I are asymptomatic. I am on day 11 since exposure.

Thank you! 👍 Hope you'll stay asymptomatic.

 

[carsfeverguy]

Covid19 forced me to stay home.

Dug up my Wingman Formula Force GP.
Tried it with my dusty ps3 and GT6 and it doesn’t seem to work...
Can I do anything???
I am bored out of my mind.

 

[RUI]

Oh? Old people are being careful? I guess I'll send my kids to school then, and we can get back to work. Silly society, making a fuss over nothing. Old people will be just fine since they'll take care of themselves.

You're trying to build a strawman.

Many older people go out because they have to, not by choice...

 

[Dotini]

US unemployment claims from certain states have gone up 1000%.

 

[Danoff]

Many older people go out because they have to, not by choice...

Yea, and I think this is the main thing that we should be focused on right now. Not shutting everything down, but better enabling them to isolate. It would help if they seemed to actually want to do it.