COVID-19/Coronavirus Information and Support Thread (see OP for useful links)

[novcze]

There's quite a large period between you being infected and contagious and knowing you're in that situation. Unless everyone starts wearing a mask just in case, but then we'll have an even larger shortage of masks everywhere.

yes and that's why we can't go to public without wearing a mask and people are dealing with it, they cover their nose and mouth with what's available to reduce spread of infection. People even making diy masks.

some pictures:
https://www.rferl.org/a/prague-lock...virus-fears-face-masks-covid-19/30492794.html

 

[McLaren]

What's the deal with Japan?

Seeing first hand, it’s the culture. They’re very clean and mindful of each other as well as the virus.

Only concerns I saw overseas were when they let the citizens off the ship back into the public without an additional quarantine, but that was it.

 

[DDastardly00]

No they won't. Your local chain franchises are owned by "mom and pop" too in many cases. And even if they aren't, they're not doing great.

Dance with the one that brought you. If you want to buy something, buy from the ones you did before. They're your business relationship.

The Mom and pop expression extends to franchises that are independently owned. I was referencing corporate owned chains who will have a much easier time rebounding from this because their pockets are far deeper than the average small business owner.

 

[Touring Mars]

I'm meeting my friend in Glasgow after work* tomorrow night for a couple of beers.

We've both downloaded Zoom and are going to meet at 5pm and use a picture of the interior of our favourite pub.

Ironically, given that we could virtually meet anywhere in the world, we've chosen to virtually meet in a pub we always go to

Perhaps next week we can have a few beers in the shadow of the Sydney Opera House or something a bit more exciting.

 

[Blitz24]

I'm meeting my friend in Glasgow after work* tomorrow night for a couple of beers.

We've both downloaded Zoom and are going to meet at 5pm and use a picture of the interior of our favourite pub.

Ironically, given that we could virtually meet anywhere in the world, we've chosen to virtually meet in a pub we always go to

Perhaps next week we can have a few beers in the shadow of the Sydney Opera House or something a bit more exciting.

Please bring back a souvenir! Or @Small_Fryz

 

[MaxAttack]

I had to giggle on my way through Schiphol and Gatwick today.

White folks in masks everywhere, latex gloves galore. Some people have spent a lot of money on masks that i'm pretty sure are designed for painters and decorators...

...they glove and mask up and brave the airport. It's very empty. I had a four man team all to myself for bag check, stood at passport control for maybe 3 minutes, longest queue of the day.

3 minutes and these antsy people get uncomfy enough to take their facemasks off. I'm not exaggerating, at least half of the masked people when I was in that queue took it off whilst stood there. Literally the only part of their entire journey where they're forced into close contact with people, and that's when they choose to drop the paranoia mask.

I couldn't stop giggling. I know they're just being safe, but Jesus, it's one big comedy of errors out there.

The security, passport staff, airport staff, airline crews, none of them are wearing masks. They look befuddled and slightly amused by hoards of European holiday makers doing their best Chinese tourist impression.

One of the strangest journeys I have ever taken, and good timing too, since I believe the Dutch borders will soon be closed if they aren't already.

 

[Liquid]

The Press Association are saying that Italy now has more reported deaths from covid than China.

 

[Blitz24]

The Press Association are saying that Italy now has more reported deaths from covid than China.

Not the only one. Johns Hopkins has it down at 3,405 deaths for Italy as of 20 minutes ago.

 

[Eunos_Cosmo]

I've heard (I don't have anything to back it up) that deaths in Iran are well beyond 10,000.

 

[TenEightyOne]

So which is it?

Is it the case that once the FDA approves a drug for use on humans (and this one's been approved since 1955) it can be prescribed by a qualified physician for absolutely anything they see fit? That's how it works here although there are funding questions for certain things - the NHS won't pay for some things for some uses, but in the US I guess it's down to if the customer will pay.

 

[sirjim73]

Not the only one. Johns Hopkins has it down at 3,405 deaths for Italy as of 20 minutes ago.

What is the percentage increase in increase in new cases compared to yesterday? (Not the percentage increase in cases)
Yesterday the increase in daily cases was 12.5% higher than the day before.

(Hope that makes sense)

When the increase in increase reaches 0, the curve stops being exponential and suggests the start of a downward trend.

 

[Dennisch]

The Press Association are saying that Italy now has more reported deaths from covid than China.

I'm not buying China's reported numbers at all.

 

[Liquid]

I'm not buying China's reported numbers at all.

Nor me. Hence I stressed it was reported numbers; the PA themselves only said "Italy has more covid deaths than China".

Yeah, sure it does.

 

[Joey D]

Is it the case that once the FDA approves a drug for use on humans (and this one's been approved since 1955) it can be prescribed by a qualified physician for absolutely anything they see fit? That's how it works here although there are funding questions for certain things - the NHS won't pay for some things for some uses, but in the US I guess it's down to if the customer will pay.

I think some formulations were approved and they're getting other slightly varied formulations approved now. My guess is Trump was talking about Resochin, which is a product made by Bayer and isn't/wasn't approved in the US. Also, if it was approved in 1955 (I'm not doubting you) then my hunch is it needs to go through another approval process since I can't imagine the FDA was exactly brimming with good science back then.

 

[EngieDiesel]

White folks in masks everywhere, latex gloves galore. Some people have spent a lot of money on masks that i'm pretty sure are designed for painters and decorators...

People were wearing those dust masks back when everyone was all paranoid about being mailed anthrax too, even though multiple sources were saying they wouldn't do anything. There's a lot to be said for the placebo effect.

 

[Biggles]

The Press Association are saying that Italy now has more reported deaths from covid than China.

I think the significant thing is there is still no indication that new infections are going down yet in Italy. This is after a nationwide lockdown instituted on March 9th. What does this mean for the US where there hasn't been even any serious attempt at controlling the spread of the virus? Why would anyone think that in another two weeks the US won't be in the same position as Italy, but on a much bigger scale?

 

[Blitz24]

What is the percentage increase in increase in new cases compared to yesterday? (Not the percentage increase in cases)
Yesterday the increase in daily cases was 12.5% higher than the day before.

(Hope that makes sense)

When the increase in increase reaches 0, the curve stops being exponential and suggests the start of a downward trend.

From about 48 hours ago (or the last time I recall checking the total number), there has been about 46k new cases or an increase of 24%. Almost all of the increase has been from outside of China and that growth is still going up. (Raw increase from the 17th to the 18th was 17.7k, yesterday to today was 22k [these are approximate]).

 

[Danoff]

The Mom and pop expression extends to franchises that are independently owned. I was referencing corporate owned chains who will have a much easier time rebounding from this because their pockets are far deeper than the average small business owner.

Their pockets are deeper, but so is their investment and the degree to which they are impacted.

 

[sirjim73]

What is the percentage increase in increase in new cases compared to yesterday? (Not the percentage increase in cases)
Yesterday the increase in daily cases was 12.5% higher than the day before.

(Hope that makes sense)

When the increase in increase reaches 0, the curve stops being exponential and suggests the start of a downward trend.

I think the significant thing is there is still no indication that new infections are going down yet in Italy. This is after a nationwide lockdown instituted on March 9th. What does this mean for the US where there hasn't been even any serious attempt at controlling the spread of the virus? Why would anyone think that in another two weeks the US won't be in the same position as Italy, but on a much bigger scale?

I found the figures. Increase in cases today was 14.9% versus 12.5% yesterday. So Italy is still going in the wrong direction as you say. Which means 4 weeks could easily end up being longer than 4 weeks.

Depends on the reasons for the increase though. I read last week that at one point 10% of cases in Italy were health staff due to the overload of the system.

Also testing everywhere in the world is imprecise. So it could just be a hiccup (maybe some cases were missed yesterday and picked up by testing today or something). There will be outliers in any pattern or trend.

I guess what they need is a trend over a number of days in the right direction.

Well, we all need that.

I don't think so many people around the known world have been keeping an eye on Italy since Caesar was assassinated (we've just passed the Ides of March too!)

EDIT Thanks @Blitz24 helpful to know, I was referring specifically to italy in this case though as the results of their lockdown may set a precedent for what happens elsewhere in Europe and elsewhere.

 

[Rage Racer]

I'm not buying China's reported numbers at all.

Why?

 

[Dennisch]

Why?

Really? We're in the middle of a global pandemic, caused by Winnie and friends who tried to hide the initial outbreak, silencing those who tried to warn the rest of the world, and then silenced all outgoing media about Wuhan and surroundings and you need to ask why?

 

[Touring Mars]

I think the significant thing is there is still no indication that new infections are going down yet in Italy. This is after a nationwide lockdown instituted on March 9th. What does this mean for the US where there hasn't been even any serious attempt at controlling the spread of the virus? Why would anyone think that in another two weeks the US won't be in the same position as Italy, but on a much bigger scale?

One might expect a lag of 10-14 days between any intervention and the number of recorded cases.

I am hoping this is the case, and as such that would mean than the rate of new cases appearing in Italy could hopefully start to decrease from early next week - but it might be a fair bit longer than that for a number of reasons.

The lockdown in Italy is probably not going to be as successful as China (though as has been mooted in here already, the figures coming out of China are nigh on unbelievable) but if the lockdown is having any positive effect, it should start to become apparent soon.

-

As for the implications for the US... Italy locked down when they hit ca. 9000 cases. Proportionally, the US could register around 50000 cases before being in a similar position - unfortunately, with cases in the US already over 11000 and doubling in under 3 days, that number could easily be reached by Tuesday next week...

Let's hope Trump understands that exponential growth applies to more than his ego.

 

[zzz_pt]

Let's hope Trump understands that exponential growth applies to more than his ego.

This is the part governments seem to be failing to understand.

Germany had 14 cases in the 19th of February.

Today, 1 month later, the number is over 15.300.

 

[sirjim73]

It's a good job I'm not a conspiracy theorist ...?

 

[Biggles]

One might expect a lag of 10-14 days between any intervention and the number of recorded cases.

I am hoping this is the case, and as such that would mean than the rate of new cases appearing in Italy could hopefully start to decrease from early next week - but it might be a fair bit longer than that for a number of reasons.

The lockdown in Italy is probably not going to be as successful as China (though as has been mooted in here already, the figures coming out of China are nigh on unbelievable) but if the lockdown is having any positive effect, it should start to become apparent soon.

-

As for the implications for the US... Italy locked down when they hit ca. 9000 cases. Proportionally, the US could register around 50000 cases before being in a similar position - unfortunately, with cases in the US already over 11000 and doubling in under 3 days, that number could easily be reached by Tuesday next week...
Let's hope Trump understands that exponential growth applies to more than his ego.

I know people in northern Italy - young people - who have been taking the lockdown very seriously since March 9th. They all know people who have died. On the other hand, my daughter, who is in the Netherlands, tells me there are still a lot of people wandering around the streets, so it seems likely that the cases will continue to climb there for a long time to come.

It seems likely that in the US there will be centres of contagion where the infection rates will be concentrated, but judging by what I'm seeing on the news, there are people moving around the states carrying infection to every corner of the country. This suggests that it's going to be weeks before there is any chance to control the increase in cases.

 

[TJ13]

US just issued a Level 4 global travel alert.
Passports are now being only done in life for death situations.
Urging all Americans that are internationally abroad to return home or be prepared to remain overseas for an indefinite period of time.

 

[DesertPenguin]

I'm glad I'm in New York where we are already taking major precautions.

 

[Zychotic1]

I was quoting exactly that episode of Xfiles on facebook earlier...

here in Kentucky nobody is taking it very seriously...
panic buying is becoming a serious issue here.

many populated work places are shut down but virtually everything else is buisness as usual except the bars are closed... no body seems willing to stay in their homes for more than an hour...

 

[Joey D]

Let's hope Trump understands that exponential growth applies to more than his ego.

How are we even determining exponential growth? I've actively tried researching it but everything is based on confirmed cases and that seems like a terrible data set to determine anything. I fully believe the number of confirmed cases will rise at an exponential rate up to some plateau, but in terms of actual cases? I have no idea. We could very well be at a slow growth curve or we could be at a growth curve that sees all of the US infected by the end of the month.

So while I think it's important Trump is aware of this, I'm not sure he should be making decisions off of incomplete data. If he does, it could end up being more damaging to the country than the virus itself.

 

[Touring Mars]

How are we even determining exponential growth? I've actively tried researching it but everything is based on confirmed cases and that seems like a terrible data set to determine anything. I fully believe the number of confirmed cases will rise at an exponential rate up to some plateau, but in terms of actual cases? I have no idea. We could very well be at a slow growth curve or we could be at a growth curve that sees all of the US infected by the end of the month.

So while I think it's important Trump is aware of this, I'm not sure he should be making decisions off of incomplete data. If he does, it could end up being more damaging to the country than the virus itself.

Although the actual number of infections is impossible to know - and will be far higher than the confirmed cases - I'm not sure why there would be much difference in the growth rate between the two.

Clearly, how badly one is afflicted with COVID-19 depends on one's age and pre-existing health condition... but in terms of likelihood of contracting the virus in the first place, I'm not sure that this is dependent on anything other than social contact, and thus I would except that the difference in growth rate between confirmed cases and all (mostly undiagnosed) cases is minimal.