COVID-19/Coronavirus Information and Support Thread (see OP for useful links)

[Danoff]

Until we can proceed with some confidence that flattening the curve has worked, is working, or is not going to work.

Define "worked" or "working". We are flattening it now. Do you mean flattening it enough that we have sufficient healthcare resources for everyone?

That's what's happening currently. Doing what we can involves staying in our homes to try and stop the spread. It's too early to call if it's going to work. On the 17th you go back to work... unless they set a different date.

If I had any confidence that my government would stick to the 17th, it would help a lot. They've so far only indicated that they won't. In fact, what seems to be happening, is they pick a time period where they're certain that they'll need to go longer. They're saying "well it's at least this long", and then they put that date knowing that they can and will extend it. What this does is panic residents and businesses alike.

The whole country is experiencing this panic, and it is a failure of leadership.

So we're now being told the peak of the virus will arrive in Utah on May 18th, which seems really specific. But due to that, the government is considering putting everyone in lockdown for the next three months, which seems like a horrible idea. While I can certainly work from home, most of the state can't. We have extremely high rent and housing prices too which will hit a wall if no one can afford to pay. If we really are going to have to stay in our homes until July, we're going to need something from the government who's forcing us to do this, otherwise, we're all going to be in a world of crap. I'm guessing other states are in a similar situation too.

With this I'm having a harder and harder time accepting we're doing the right thing here. I can probably make everything work financially, but that's only if there are no unforeseen circumstances.

It is as though we collectively have no appreciation for the importance of economic fundamentals. When that hits, it'll hit hard.

 

[Michael88]

Apparently people in Italy have attacked transports of infected with stones and even improved explosive devices (!).

What gives, Italy? This is still the beginning of a crisis and people go nuts already?

 

[Mr P]

Dyson to the rescue!!

https://www.aol.co.uk/news/2020/03/25/james-dyson-unveils-design-for-coronavirus-ventilator/

If the crazy priced fans he sells are anything to go by these suckers will cost about 3 grand a pop after the initial 5000 have been donated... way to go Dyson you fill ya boots even more son.. Cha ching!!! 👍

 

[Boston77]

Some random thoughts on Washington States essential businesses.
1. Weed stores (all the ones around me, and there are many) are open. This is good for me as I’d rather use CBDs than take pills for my pain. No looking at the weed, no sniffing the jars. No inspecting of the product.
Order, pay, receive at 6 foot distance. I ordered online. Thankfully they have always had this option. It was perfect.

2. Fred Meyer is a large retail chain that focuses on one stop shopping. You can buy groceries, fertilizer, lego’s and cloths all in one stop. They also have a separate jewelry store.
The jewelry area was open with 2 bored looking ladies running it. I don’t understand why that section of store isn’t lock down. Since when is buying earrings or a ring an essential part of this?

3. I can still fill my growlers at the 3 bottle shops I use. I’ve got that going for me.

4. I’m a veterinarian technician. Things are getting really tough for us. Fluffy and Fido are not coming in during this. I completely understand. Why risk it for a vaccine update, nail trim, etc? Today was the first time in 18 years that I was told to be “on call“ rather than come in.

Good luck everyone

 

[nostradavor2]

Apparently people in Italy have attacked transports of infected with stones and even improved explosive devices (!).

What gives, Italy? This is still the beginning of a crisis and people go nuts already?

What did you expect? Croatia is 3 weeks behind Italy and there will be even worst stuff here soon. Quarantines and isolations are not natural and are offensive to intelligent people because you can't just destroy states economics because of medium or even mild respiratory infection.
If Trump stops safety measures we should buy american $.
Also on side I was on phone with a girl who's mom is doctor in Bari (Italy) and they think there is more like 2 million of infected people than showed numbers. Also there is study from Oxford University which says that probably almost 50% of GB popolation was (~30mil) were in contact with this virus which seems more logical than anything else.

 

[McLaren]

My understanding of 'flattening the curve' is a sustained drop in the daily growth rate of new cases.

For example, the daily growth rate of infections without intervention is anywhere between 20 and 50%, with a global average somewhere around 33%, and Italy (where the virus is now most widespread) had a daily growth rate averaging at around 25% (which means a doubling rate of 3 days).

Italy is now looking at 8% growth in new cases day on day, and has seen a sustained drop in that growth rate for several days now... you can see from the timeline in the Wiki page (a great reference for all countries, by the way) that the curve is indeed flattening... but it takes several days for that trend to become apparent.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_in_Italy

That was my interpretation as well. We're being preventative by social distancing, but the charts I've seen still showcase an increase every day.

I thought I addressed that with Colorado as an example.

That's not addressing the severity of 2 governors whose excuse to not shut down is "We're not going to be China" & "people just go elsewhere". That can completely undo any current slowdown we may be working towards as a nation b/c Mississippi & Florida's numbers could push the confirmed/death rates back up.

 

[TB]

With a stop for all elective surgeries, my wife just came home and said they're pulling nurses from various departments and training them for ER and ICU. Others are being let go. Here's hoping that doesn't happen to her.

 

[Michael88]

What did you expect? Croatia is 3 weeks behind Italy and there will be even worst stuff here soon. Quarantines and isolations are not natural and are offensive to intelligent people because you can't just destroy states economics because of medium or even mild respiratory infection.
If Trump stops safety measures we should buy american $.
Also on side I was on phone with a girl who's mom is doctor in Bari (Italy) and they think there is more like 2 million of infected people than showed numbers. Also there is study from Oxford University which says that probably almost 50% of GB popolation was (~30mil) were in contact with this virus which seems more logical than anything else.

Yeah I don't know if it counts as a mild respiratory infection if so many people die in such short time that cities have to use their city halls to store the dead, and have to use military convoys to get the dead to the graveyards. In Italy 780 people died in one day, mostly in one state and the days before it was 500-600 every day.

And that WITH severe containment procedures and the health system beyond its limits.

I don't think the economy would be awesome as if nothing happened if droves of people died every day, for months, without containment procedures.

Also I don't think throwing rocks is the reaction of an intelligent person under any circumstances. Except in a rock throwing contest.

 

[nostradavor2]

Yeah I don't know if it counts as a mild respiratory infection if so many people die in such short time that cities have to use their city halls to store the dead, and have to use military convoys to get the dead to the graveyards. In Italy 780 people died in one day, mostly in one state and the days before it was 500-600 every day.

And that WITH severe containment procedures and the health system beyond its limits.

I don't think the economy would be awesome as if nothing happened if droves of people died every day, for months, without containment procedures.

Its because is spreading very easy. It doesn't really do big problems for healthy people. If you add that up with numbers of infected that scientists think they are ( study I mentioned you can find online, doctor from Bari is 1st hand information to me). Also average person has 5-15 mild respiratory infections during 1 year that is not aware of. So pure logic makes me think that since this is very fast spreading thing plus number of deaths is that numbers predicted by Oxford team are close to true numbers.

 

[Danoff]

That was my interpretation as well. We're being preventative by social distancing, but the charts I've seen still showcase an increase every day.

It's going to at this stage, even with distancing and even if we were flattening the curve enough. "Enough" is going to be highly variable in the US.

That's not addressing the severity of 2 governors whose excuse to not shut down is "We're not going to be China" & "people just go elsewhere". That can completely undo any current slowdown we may be working towards as a nation b/c Mississippi & Florida's numbers could push the confirmed/death rates back up.

I agree that some states are going to push the numbers in a bad direction. I actually think the US response is going to look a bit weird, since we seem to be trying a lot of techniques in a lot of places. I've stopped looking at US numbers and started tracking just Colorado to see how my state is doing and assess how bad it is locally for me. Florida and New York are not going to look like Washington State and Utah. New York is on a rough trajectory right now.

I suppose you could argue that Florida could make numbers look bad in other states as well, because people can come from Florida (or NY or whatever) to a state that is not overrun (and overrun it). I'm not sure if there is a plan to tackle that problem, or even if it's legit to do so.

Edit:

New York currently has 6.5% of worldwide COVID-19 cases.

Edit 2:

This also looks somewhat legit.

https://electrek.co/2020/03/25/tesla-reopen-gigafactory-new-york-covid19-ventilators/

Tesla to manufacture ventilators by working with a ventilator heavyweight.

 

[CodeRedR51]

Sorry if this has been talked about already, but something I am curious about is if this virus can get into the water system? Have we figured that out yet?

 

[Biggles]

It's going to at this stage, even with distancing and even if we were flattening the curve enough. "Enough" is going to be highly variable in the US.



I agree that some states are going to push the numbers in a bad direction. I actually think the US response is going to look a bit weird, since we seem to be trying a lot of techniques in a lot of places. I've stopped looking at US numbers and started tracking just Colorado to see how my state is doing and assess how bad it is locally for me. Florida and New York are not going to look like Washington State and Utah. New York is on a rough trajectory right now.

I suppose you could argue that Florida could make numbers look bad in other states as well, because people can come from Florida (or NY or whatever) to a state that is not overrun (and overrun it). I'm not sure if there is a plan to tackle that problem, or even if it's legit to do so.

Edit:

New York currently has 6.5% of worldwide COVID-19 cases.

Edit 2:

This also looks somewhat legit.

https://electrek.co/2020/03/25/tesla-reopen-gigafactory-new-york-covid19-ventilators/

Tesla to manufacture ventilators by working with a ventilator heavyweight.

One of the (many) weirdly stupid themes cropping up on the Fox website public comments section is criticism of European countries for not having "enforced their borders", thereby allowing the virus to spread unchecked from country to country (ties in to the popular Fox theme of immigration & border walls). This is ignoring the fact that this situation in the European Union is pretty much the same as in the United States, where citizens have the right to travel from state to state & so may carry the virus with them from one part of the country to another.

I think one of the problems the US will encounter going forward is the piecemeal approach to containing the virus, with differing regulations in different states & lack of a strong centralized response. The sheer geographical scale of the US is going to add to the problem. It's going to mean that even after a given city, or state may have more or less successfully contained the growth of the virus locally, there is always going to be the risk of introducing new infections via individuals arriving from another part of the US that may still have a virus situation that is at an earlier point on the curve.

 

[Woodybobs]

Define "worked" or "working". We are flattening it now. Do you mean flattening it enough that we have sufficient healthcare resources for everyone?

In this case flattening the curve is considered a process to an end goal. If we don't reach the target we will not have flattened the curve.

My understanding of it is that it means reducing the spread until the hospitals can manage. I won't be the one to call it. That'll be people who actually have experience in the necessary disciplines. We might need to go into lock-down more than once. Currently flattening is a useless concept if we don't go far enough. Whether we actually continue as we are is up to the politicians. We've elected them to do that job. We expect them to listen to all the experts, study all the evidence, and make a decision. So far every government has opted for a similar strategy. Some have had promising results. The rest of us are waiting.

If I had any confidence that my government would stick to the 17th, it would help a lot.

I don't think they have a clue. As soon as they think the current strategy won't work they'll change it. They can't make a decision yet because they don't know what the strategy will be on April 17th.

they put that date knowing that they can and will extend it.

They haven't a clue what to say. They're hopeful.

The whole country is experiencing this panic, and it is a failure of leadership.

It's a similar story in most countries. A pandemic always has the potential to create a panic regardless of the leadership. We haven't planned well enough for this situation but previous governments are just as responsible for that. I'm not sure setting dates to stick to and then changing them would do anything to reduce panic or help business.

 

[Earth]

My biggest annoyance right now is people who wear gloves yet still egregiously rub their nose, mouth, and eyes. Its beyond infuriating.

Everyone needs to be forced to watch a video about hygiene. At work, school, or wherever they are. I bet most people still dont wash their hands before eating. It feels like a lost cause.

 

[Danoff]

My understanding of it is that it means reducing the spread until the hospitals can manage.

Currently flattening is a useless concept if we don't go far enough.

You don't seem to understand what we're doing or why.

It does not mean reducing the spread until hospitals can manage. And it is not useless if we don't go far enough. Flattening the curve simply means spreading out the number of infected so that hospitals see (the same) patients over a longer period of time, and can thus cope better. It does not mean that they must "manage". "Better" is what is hoped for. Spreading out the hospitalizations is good for healthcare facilities. It does not have to be spread out so much that they can manage. Perhaps they still cannot manage, but they do less triage if they have an unmanageable load spread out more than it otherwise would have been.

To get concrete. Let's say that a hospital can handle 10 intubated patients on a ventilator at a given time. And let's say that because we let the infection grow at its own "natural" rate, they receive 50 at once that need such care. They might lose 40. Now let's say that we had "flattened" the curve a bit, but not enough for them to "manage". So for example, let's say that they have 40 patients at once that need such care, and they lose 30 (I know, this is simplistic, but it's just to illustrate a point). So now they've still not managed to avoid triage, and they've still lost a lot of patients, but we did not have to flatten all the way down to 10 in order to save lives. Any flattening helps. Which is why it is not a "useless" concept if we don't go far enough. Even if those saved 10 come in a week later and still die, eventually it shifts some off the end and they get a ventilator that they otherwise would not have.

Every patient that you can time-shift off of the peak is potentially a saved life.

Whether we actually continue as we are is up to the politicians. We've elected them to do that job. We expect them to listen to all the experts, study all the evidence, and make a decision. So far every government has opted for a similar strategy. Some have had promising results. The rest of us are waiting.

I don't think they have a clue. As soon as they think the current strategy won't work they'll change it. They can't make a decision yet because they don't know what the strategy will be on April 17th.

They haven't a clue what to say. They're hopeful.

We elected them to do a job, and we're waiting for the results... and they haven't got a clue...

I'm not sure setting dates to stick to and then changing them would do anything to reduce panic or help business.

I'm sure it wouldn't. Having a plan and carrying it out would though.

 

[ROAD_DOGG33J]

Illinois is at 19 deaths now. About 1,900 cases have been reported. There's a chart of the number of cases by day:
https://www.nbcchicago.com/news/loc...-isnt-flattening-its-getting-steeper/2244612/

 

[Woodybobs]

You don't seem to understand what we're doing or why.

It does not mean reducing the spread until hospitals can manage. And it is not useless if we don't go far enough. Flattening the curve simply means spreading out the number of infected so that hospitals see (the same) patients over a longer period of time, and can thus cope better. It does not mean that they must "manage". "Better" is what is hoped for. Spreading out the hospitalizations is good for healthcare facilities. It does not have to be spread out so much that they can manage. Perhaps they still cannot manage, but they do less triage if they have an unmanageable load spread out more than it otherwise would have been.

To get concrete. Let's say that a hospital can handle 10 intubated patients on a ventilator at a given time. And let's say that because we let the infection grow at its own "natural" rate, they receive 50 at once that need such care. They might lose 40. Now let's say that we had "flattened" the curve a bit, but not enough for them to "manage". So for example, let's say that they have 40 patients at once that need such care, and they lose 30 (I know, this is simplistic, but it's just to illustrate a point). So now they've still not managed to avoid triage, and they've still lost a lot of patients, but we did not have to flatten all the way down to 10 in order to save lives. Any flattening helps. Which is why it is not a "useless" concept if we don't go far enough. Even if those saved 10 come in a week later and still die, eventually it shifts some off the end and they get a ventilator that they otherwise would not have.

Every patient that you can time-shift off of the peak is potentially a saved life.

This is what you asked.

Define "worked" or "working". We are flattening it now. Do you mean flattening it enough that we have sufficient healthcare resources for everyone?

The point of flattening the curve is to reduce the number of people admitted to hospital at the peak of the spread of the virus to a number that is manageable for the health service. Our efforts so far would be useless if we lifted the lock down tomorrow. An extreme example maybe, but it proves that flattening the curve only works if we continue until the benefits can be felt. Otherwise the peak starts to rise again.

Having a plan and carrying it out would though.

But your plan allows for not carrying it out. That's literally what's happening now.

 

[McLaren]

I agree that some states are going to push the numbers in a bad direction. I actually think the US response is going to look a bit weird, since we seem to be trying a lot of techniques in a lot of places. I've stopped looking at US numbers and started tracking just Colorado to see how my state is doing and assess how bad it is locally for me. Florida and New York are not going to look like Washington State and Utah. New York is on a rough trajectory right now.


I suppose you could argue that Florida could make numbers look bad in other states as well, because people can come from Florida (or NY or whatever) to a state that is not overrun (and overrun it). I'm not sure if there is a plan to tackle that problem, or even if it's legit to do so.

Edit:

New York currently has 6.5% of worldwide COVID-19 cases.

I'm concerned Florida could because the governor said people could just leave if he puts a state lockdown into effect, citing that when New York went into its lockdown, people just left.

“In New York (City), when they did the stay-at-home order, what did people do? A lot of people fled the city and they are going to stay with their parents or fly (out),” DeSantis said during a press conference at The Villages, a retirement community of 80,000 residents north of Orlando. “We are getting huge amounts of people flying in. We are looking at how to address those flights.” He said he talked to President Donald Trump on Sunday night about that issue.

My issue with this statement is that less than a week ago, what did Florida just have? Spring Break college kids. And what did Gov. DeSantis not do? Close the beaches they go to. This claim that they have nowhere to go because he shut down the bars & what not doesn't mean much b/c college kids spend a lot of time on Florida's beaches.

DeSantis did not, however, close the beaches, arguing the choice on what to do about beaches "probably needs to be taken on a case-by-case basis."

Some, like the heads of Miami Beach, Fort Lauderdale and Tampa have issued mandates to close some of the state's most popular beaches.

But local officials in other parts of the state have allowed them to stay open, and videos of young spring breakers on some of Florida's beaches over the last week have gone viral as they flout guidance from the federal government and, in some cases, outright tell reporters that they couldn't care less about the spread of the coronavirus.

I give credit to Gov. DeSantis for quarantining all incoming flights from NY, NJ, & Conn. for 14 days, but these are sadly, the morons who now that Spring Break is done, will have flown out to parts of the US to their homes or dorms.

 

[zzz_pt]

Interesting podcast, especially the part after 40:34



Both Heather and Bret speak about serology / antibody testing, which tests for prior exposure to the virus. In other words, the test tells us if we're (potentially) already immune to the virus.

Having these tests available to the public would be essential in going back to normal life asap.

 

[CSLACR]

The following is a quote from a "friend" of mine, this is the basic rhetoric going around from every Trump supporter I know.

"Exactly. I wonder how many people had the virus but didnt know it and recovered. Hiw many people thought they had the flu or something when it wasnt and had absolutely no idea at all. I would honestly love to know. I was sick as all hell in beginning of January with the same symptoms and took weeks to recover"

Basically in a nutshell, this is all fake and a worldwide coordinated attempt to bring down the the great one. Oh ye Donald.
Also we all had this already. Yeah yeah yeah.

 

[McLaren]

The following is a quote from a "friend" of mine, this is the basic rhetoric going around from every Trump supporter I know.

"Exactly. I wonder how many people had the virus but didnt know it and recovered. Hiw many people thought they had the flu or something when it wasnt and had absolutely no idea at all. I would honestly love to know. I was sick as all hell in beginning of January with the same symptoms and took weeks to recover"

Basically in a nutshell, this is all fake and a worldwide coordinated attempt to bring down the the great one. Oh ye Donald.
Also we all had this already. Yeah yeah yeah.

I've seen several people have that train of thought with no attachment to Trump; it can be dated as far back as when China was the lone epicenter. It's a legitimate concern for many considering the virus has flu-like symptoms & there's been multiple reports that a lot of people diagnosed had mild symptoms that could easily be seen as just having the flu at first glance. The goal however, should be to assume you have yet to catch the virus until you've had a Dr. confirm or give assumption you have it.

Beyond your quote however, is another level of ignorance many do have.

 

[baldgye]

Basically in a nutshell, this is all fake and a worldwide coordinated attempt to bring down the the great one. Oh ye Donald.

Strange, Trump supporters are usually so rational

 

[Claudio 81]

Apparently people in Italy have attacked transports of infected with stones and even improved explosive devices (!).

What gives, Italy? This is still the beginning of a crisis and people go nuts already?

But where did you read this news? Can you put a link or did you invent the news?

 

[queleuleu]

My big brother (36 years old father and husband) is now in induced coma. Ten days ago, everything was ok. Please, be careful This is like a never ending nightmare.

 

[PzR Slim]

The following is a quote from a "friend" of mine, this is the basic rhetoric going around from every Trump supporter I know.

"Exactly. I wonder how many people had the virus but didnt know it and recovered. Hiw many people thought they had the flu or something when it wasnt and had absolutely no idea at all. I would honestly love to know. I was sick as all hell in beginning of January with the same symptoms and took weeks to recover"

Basically in a nutshell, this is all fake and a worldwide coordinated attempt to bring down the the great one. Oh ye Donald.
Also we all had this already. Yeah yeah yeah.

The UK is hoping to have 3.5 million of these antibody tests by the weekend. Initially for health workers to use so they can be sure they are safe to return to work and help save lives and then for the rest of the population to see if there is a continued need to keep locked down.

 

[PzR Slim]

My big brother (36 years old father and husband) is now in induced coma. Ten days ago, everything was ok. Please, be careful This is like a never ending nightmare.

So sorry to hear this mate. I pray that they come through this. My thoughts are with you and your family.

 

[Touring Mars]

My big brother (36 years old father and husband) is now in induced coma. Ten days ago, everything was ok. Please, be careful This is like a never ending nightmare.

Very sorry to hear that. Thank you for keeping us posted and for the warning, and of course I hope for all the best for you and your family.

 

[PeterJB]

If we take the official numbers of cases and deaths, then you end up with eerily high (and also wildly inconsistent) fatality rates. i.e. for China 81,285 cases and 3,287 deaths makes a fatality rate of 4%. In Italy 74,386 cases and 7,503 deaths makes 10%. In the US it's 1.5%, Spain 7.5%, Germany 0.6%, the UK 5%, and in South Korea it's 1.4%. Worldwide is 4.5%.

Obviously a lot of cases will be unrecorded, but pretty much all deaths are gonna be recorded because if you're dying from it you'll probably end up hospitalised and tested. If we take Germany's fatality rate of 0.6% for each country, then you get 550,000 cases in China, 1.25 million in Italy, 175,000 in the US, 600,000 in Spain, 37,000 in Germany, 77,500 in the UK, and 22,000 in South Korea, for a worldwide total of 3.67 million.

Spanish Flu was notoriously deadly and had an estimated fatality rate of anywhere from 3-10%. I'm reticent to ascribe a similar fatality rate to this virus, unless people start reporting cytokine storms. Plus, the 10% fatality rate in Italy applied worldwide would give total cases of just over 220,000, which is less than half the confirmed cases we already have.

 

[ryzno]

Anyone else thinks this was Kim Jungs Christmas present he promised us?

 

[baldgye]

If we take the official numbers of cases and deaths, then you end up with eerily high (and also wildly inconsistent) fatality rates. i.e. for China 81,285 cases and 3,287 deaths makes a fatality rate of 4%. In Italy 74,386 cases and 7,503 deaths makes 10%. In the US it's 1.5%, Spain 7.5%, Germany 0.6%, the UK 5%, and in South Korea it's 1.4%. Worldwide is 4.5%.

I think, to get a meaningful conclusion from death rates, you need to look at the age group rates. Italy has a large population % of elderly, which will make it stats worse as a whole