COVID-19/Coronavirus Information and Support Thread (see OP for useful links)

[McLaren]

When containment fails and the virus is in the wider population, you seek to "delay" the spread. While knowing that it will eventually reach a large number of the population, you reduce the rate of spread of the virus by limiting movement and activity among all people in an affected area, so that those who have the virus are less able to pass it to others, reducing the number of people who become ill and thus also those who become seriously ill and those who die - the "flattening the curve" process of kicking several cans down the road so you only have to deal with a few cans at a time. Containment is moot at that point because there's simply too many moving parts to contain it.

I get all that. But Danoff seems to be suggesting ending that and getting people back to work when most of the US, as far as reported, has yet to contract the virus. That plan still seems to allow the virus just spread again as it’s becoming aware to me we could just as easily “over-tax” our healthcare with the young and able as much as the old & prone.

 

[DesertPenguin]

They’re probably at little risk of spreading it as long as precautions like cleaning equipment after use are taken.

Which let's be honest, I doubt they're doing.

 

[TexRex]

...the US is magically creating $2 trillion out of thin air...

Spoiler

Of course they're not, but that's what Kate said as Elizabeth Warren in the sketch.

She also mentioned "butt stuff", and I'd have donated a considerable sum to her campaign--despite a Warren presidency not being particularly appealing--had the real Elizabeth Warren mentioned "butt stuff" in an actual town hall.

 

[Famine]

Not apropos of any of the below, but by some of the behaviour in the UK right now, you can literally spot the exact moment that Eyam was removed from the National Curriculum.

The UK (and presumably the US also) decided a long time ago that containment was not going to work - it is the first choice strategy for an outbreak, but by the time an outbreak becomes a pandemic, it is arguably not going to work unless every country on Earth independently succeeds at containment simultaneously...

It wasn't in principle a losing battle, but the long asymptomatic infectious period of this particular strain made it a much harder one.

With something that has people symptomatic and contagious, containment is easier even if it's quite virulent and approaching epidemic levels elsewhere. You just isolate anyone symptomatic and either directly connected to the known hotzones or one step removed.

SARS-CoV-2 was making people infectious up to two weeks before they start coughing or running a temperature. By the time the world decided to ban flights from China, there'd been two weeks of infected people flying back from there - students returning after Christmas break, people working in industry (Wuhan is big on steel, supplying to many of the Chinese car manufacturers), even tourists - without showing any symptoms but capable of infecting anyone they came into contact with. And not just from the hotzone, but people who'd mingled with them at the international hubs (though Wuhan has direct flights to New York, Rome and London, so... eh).

Ultimately containment could have worked if it was SARS-CoV. But it wasn't, and nobody really knew that when working through the initial steps.

I get all that. But Danoff seems to be suggesting ending that and getting people back to work when most of the US, as far as reported, has yet to contract the virus. That plan still seems to allow the virus just spread again as it’s becoming aware to me we could just as easily “over-tax” our healthcare with the young and able as much as the old & prone.

There's a big problem with the delay phase and the quarantine we have right now, which is that at some point it will all end - not in stages, but all at once, just like it started. That basically turns the delay phase into a second containment phase - you're hoping that by containing everyone, you can treat the much smaller number of infected people and any new infections arising from family units being quarantined with each other. Then it's all over and everyone goes back to normal...

... and anyone who was asymptomatic infectious now infects everyone all over again, we get a second spike - smaller than the undelayed first one, but still significant and overwhelming - and we have to do the same thing all over again in July.

What would be better is a managed relaxation of quarantine. We know the virus has an asymptomatic infectious period of up to two weeks, so let's add 50% for outliers and call it three weeks (which would be April 13 in the UK). After three weeks, everyone who has not showed symptoms or been quarantined with someone who has shown symptoms, is not in an at-risk age group (risk doubles in 50+ compared to any age group under 50), and is not in an at-risk health group, can be assumed non-infectious and return to normal life. After another week we can begin to isolate any further pockets that spring up, and if the case load continues to fall we can start to dequarantine the at-risk groups - again in stages, with gradually older age groups first, and the at-risk health groups last.

We won't have herd immunity - that won't arrive until a vaccine does - and we will have to continue to monitor for any pockets of disease, and keep the possibility of implementing wider quarantine measures again open, in case of renewed epidemic spread.


Of course, it would be even better if some of what's happening now is "the new normal". This has shown so many employers (including my old one) that there are technological solutions for being in the office and - if supplemented with some occasional meatspace meetings - they can even replace the office atmosphere. Saves on renting business premises too!

 

[baldgye]

This has shown so many employers (including my old one) that there are technological solutions for being in the office and - if supplemented with some occasional meatspace meetings - they can even replace the office atmosphere. Saves on renting business premises too!

Whatever happens, I hope this doesn't. While I can work from home and don't have to travel 4 hours a day to and from the office, I greatly miss the interaction and feel that part of being able to function as an effective team is constant communication, something you can't do when everyone is split up all over the place, no matter how many skype calls you have.

 

[Dennisch]

Ah yes, the logic of religion.

Large gatherings aren't allowed in the Netherlands, expect religious gatherings like church weddings, burial ceremonies and other fairytale powered shenanigans.

Pray the Corona away!

 

[Exorcet]

Whatever happens, I hope this doesn't. While I can work from home and don't have to travel 4 hours a day to and from the office, I greatly miss the interaction and feel that part of being able to function as an effective team is constant communication, something you can't do when everyone is split up all over the place, no matter how many skype calls you have.

I have to say that I'm missing the office as well, though coordination doesn't appear to be suffering. I suppose that will depend a lot on one's particular job, but for the moment IM's are covering for quick personal meetings and calls for larger organized meetings. One definite perk is that everything is in text and on record, which is going to be great when I need to dig things up in the future.

 

[Swagger897]

I just spotted (and heard) my first landscaping crew of the year. Seriously? Is that essential to our well-being? They're not gonna get residents sick but what about each other?

So long as they’re not holding hands and exhibiting symptoms, what difference does it make? They are probably more likely to be sick from a pollen allergy...

 

[DesertPenguin]

They're loud and wake me up earlier than I'd like when I have nothing to do but sit around the house all day

 

[Jezza819]

They're loud and wake me up earlier than I'd like when I have nothing to do but sit around the house all day

I usually end up with a few vacation days per year where I'm at home and the crew that does our apartment complex will always wake me up too. At least they finally finished building those houses at the back of the subdivision next to us. I got pretty fed up listening to bulldozers scraping dirt and beeping when backing up all day.

 

[Biggles]

Italy, the canary in the coronavirus coal mine, continues to show a decline in new cases for the 4th day in a row. However, it's not as yet a steep drop off, but a gradual decline. This is at 17 days into lockdown mode. This would continue to suggest about a 3 week time frame to get a handle on the spread of the virus, perhaps 4 weeks to really contain it. That is assuming a pretty comprehensive shutdown & I'm not sure many countries have yet reached that point yet.

 

[Danoff]

I have 10 minutes before I have to watch 3 kids again... quick! to GTPlanet!

https://nypost.com/2020/03/26/coron...ited-if-the-healthy-volunteer-to-be-infected/

This is awesome. Inject live virus into vaccinated test subjects to see if the vaccine works (saves months of vaccine development, breaks ethics rules). Yes we should do this (to volunteers only, not like... criminals or an oppressed class).

Wait, we’ve gone from “we’re flattening the curve” to “we failed to contain the virus, send everyone back to work”?

As @Famine pointed out, we are flattening the curve, and it is a failure of containment of the virus. And I did not say everyone.

We’re currently at 70,000 cases in the US. That’s nowhere even near a significant portion to have “caught the virus and been treated” of the population with a death toll still rising. Dallas County was at 2 deaths Sunday. It jumped to 6 Wednesday. They are expecting more. This quarantine needs to continue, we are still early into this to make such decisions to abandon it and get back to work.

Those are the cases we know of. I think we should start relaxing quarantine toward the end of April. I picked April 20th (not entirely but somewhat arbitrarily).

Do we know for sure that the people who have already been treated won't be reinfected again if they come into contact with the virus? Because if they do, then surely they'd contribute to a subsequent peak.

That would be a big problem. So far I believe the assumption is no re-infection.

Manageable. The aim is to make sure we have enough space, staff, and equipment to effectively treat those who need it.

Yes. More manageable is the goal.

You haven't. We may well already be on course for crippling the health service due to the spread before the the restrictions. Sending people back to work too early could result in a second peak and a protracted period between the peaks during which the health service is overcrowded, understaffed, and under-equipped.

I did, and what you posted there is not a response to it.

They're absolutely confused. They're not prepared for this. They're waiting to see how this strategy plays out and they can't force it to hurry up. This is the strategy until it works or they change it. They won't tell us they're changing it until they think this strategy has failed. If that happens it won't be for a number of days at least.

Yea, in the meantime we should be doing more...

... and anyone who was asymptomatic infectious now infects everyone all over again, we get a second spike - smaller than the undelayed first one, but still significant and overwhelming - and we have to do the same thing all over again in July.

What would be better is a managed relaxation of quarantine.

Totally agree. I think we know already that even if we were magically able to get to this point where we were back in containment that it would not stay that we and we would be dealing with another curve flattening exercise to deal with a new outbreak. It seems like pure fantasy land to try to get back to containment, but also it's not particularly helpful. What we need to be working toward is immunity, especially among the people that are likely to survive getting immunity.

Of course, it would be even better if some of what's happening now is "the new normal". This has shown so many employers (including my old one) that there are technological solutions for being in the office and - if supplemented with some occasional meatspace meetings - they can even replace the office atmosphere. Saves on renting business premises too!

I think there is no getting the telework thing back in the back. Some of this is absolutely the new normal.

 

[McLaren]

I have 10 minutes before I have to watch 3 kids again... quick! to GTPlanet!

https://nypost.com/2020/03/26/coron...ited-if-the-healthy-volunteer-to-be-infected/

This is awesome. Inject live virus into vaccinated test subjects to see if the vaccine works (saves months of vaccine development, breaks ethics rules). Yes we should do this (to volunteers only, not like... criminals or an oppressed class).



As @Famine pointed out, we are flattening the curve, and it is a failure of containment of the virus. And I did not say everyone.



Those are the cases we know of. I think we should start relaxing quarantine toward the end of April. I picked April 20th (not entirely but somewhat arbitrarily).



That would be a big problem. So far I believe the assumption is no re-infection.



Yes.



I did, and what you posted there is not a response to it.



Yea, in the meantime we should be doing more...

Totally agree. I think we know already that even if we were magically able to get to this point where we were back in containment that it would not stay that we and we would be dealing with another curve flattening exercise to deal with a new outbreak. It seems like pure fantasy land to try to get back to containment, but also it's not particularly helpful. What we need to be working toward is immunity, especially among the people that are likely to survive getting immunity.



I think there is no getting the telework thing back in the back. Some of this is absolutely the new normal.

Apologizing beforehand for quoting your whole post as it’s rather difficult to snip and reply to your parts directed towards me.

I will concede with you and Famine then. I must have missed where you already had a date beforehand that you believe we can start relaxing the lockdowns. End of April should be enough time to see how we’re doing. I was merely going off most reports that imply trying to get back to normal so soon or by Trump’s desired deadline would worsen the spread.

I’ll add that I do enjoy this thread being so open and civil to any point brought up. I managed to entangle myself in a debate elsewhere with a man who posted a Daily Wire article calling the UK man who created a model outlining the est. number of deaths a liar and “majorly backtracked” his original numbers as a fear spreader. Even though on a second article, it explained he decreased his numbers in part to a growing U.K. hospital capacity and social distancing having effect.

 

[sirjim73]

Italy, the canary in the coronavirus coal mine, continues to show a decline in new cases for the 4th day in a row. However, it's not as yet a steep drop off, but a gradual decline. This is at 17 days into lockdown mode. This would continue to suggest about a 3 week time frame to get a handle on the spread of the virus, perhaps 4 weeks to really contain it. That is assuming a pretty comprehensive shutdown & I'm not sure many countries have yet reached that point yet.

All that is consistent with what we know and would have expected at this point. The good part of that statement is that the forecasts/models seem to have been reasonably accurate. So hopefully the plan is working there (fingers crossed).

The closure of parks in Italy only happened earlier this week. That wont be reflected in the current figures, but you would expect logically that would help, even if only in a small way. The fewer communal areas in use, the less the spread.

I do think UK should have closed parks immediately when we went into lockdown on Monday, but having said that the figures are not growing as exponentially currently as would have been expected. I imagine that is being kept in reserve for now.

I feel like the whole world is watching Italy right now and praying/crossing fingers.

Please remember everyone in the UK (and elsewhere), open your windows and clap at 8pm... As we are an hour behind CET, if anyone on the forum is from France and hears a lot of noise across the Channel at 7pm, you'll know why . Salut!

 

[Famine]

Please remember everyone in the UK (and elsewhere), open your windows and clap at 8pm... As we are an hour behind CET, if anyone on the forum is from France and hears a lot of noise across the Channel at 7pm, you'll know why . Salut!

Is this some hokey COVID cure, like "the virus hates loud noises"?

 

[Biggles]

All that is consistent with what we know and would have expected at this point. The good part of that statement is that the forecasts/models seem to have been reasonably accurate. So hopefully the plan is working there (fingers crossed).

The closure of parks in Italy only happened earlier this week. That wont be reflected in the current figures, but you would expect logically that would help, even if only in a small way. The fewer communal areas in use, the less the spread.

I do think UK should have closed parks immediately when we went into lockdown on Monday, but having said that the figures are not growing as exponentially currently as would have been expected. I imagine that is being kept in reserve for now.

I feel like the whole world is watching Italy right now and praying/crossing fingers.

Please remember everyone in the UK (and elsewhere), open your windows and clap at 8pm... As we are an hour behind CET, if anyone on the forum is from France and hears a lot of noise across the Channel at 7pm, you'll know why . Salut!

Although Italy seems to be the focus of attention, the figures there don't seem to correspond necessarily with what is happening elsewhere. Germany, for instance has a very different progression - a far less consistent rise in infections & a way lower mortality rate. Does anyone understand why that is? I don't hear anything on the news about what is happening in Germany - only the worst case scenarios, which are Italy & Spain. Are the differences social/cultural rather than medical?

 

[FPV MIC]

Although Italy seems to be the focus of attention, the figures there don't seem to correspond necessarily with what is happening elsewhere. Germany, for instance has a very different progression - a far less consistent rise in infections & a way lower mortality rate. Does anyone understand why that is? I don't hear anything on the news about what is happening in Germany - only the worst case scenarios, which are Italy & Spain. Are the differences social/cultural rather than medical?

It's been suggested that it's due to the high amount of testing in Germany. I have no idea whether this is actually the case though but it does make sense if they're also picking up a lot of the asymptomatic cases as well.

The disparity between Germany’s confirmed cases and death rate has left experts trying to explain why some countries have lower case numbers but higher deaths than the country, including France and the US.

Some have attributed the low death rate to the high level of testing in the country, with Lothar Wieler, president of the Robert Koch Institute, revealing that German laboratories are undertaking approximately 160,000 test per week.

That is well above the number of tests being carried out in other countries in Europe and around the world. The high level of testing allows for the identification of individuals who have little to no symptoms, and hence have a higher chance of survival.

https://www.pmlive.com/pharma_news/german_coronavirus_infections_climb_but_deaths_remain_low_1329617

 

[Biggles]

It's been suggested that it's due to the high amount of testing in Germany. I have no idea whether this is actually the case though but it does make sense if they're also picking up a lot of the asymptomatic cases as well.


https://www.pmlive.com/pharma_news/german_coronavirus_infections_climb_but_deaths_remain_low_1329617

You would think high testing would result in high recorded infection rates.

So far, the majority of those confirmed to have the contracted the virus in Germany are under the age of 60 – over 80% – which may also explain the low death rate.

“Especially at the beginning of the outbreak in Germany, we saw many cases connected to people returning from skiing trips and similar holidays,” said Matthias Stoll, a professor of medicine at the University of Hanover, in the Financial Times.

“These are predominantly people who are younger than 80 and who are fit enough to ski or engage in similar activities. Their risk of dying is comparatively low,” he added.

I'm sure that the majority of people skiing in Italy were also younger, but the spread into the older population obviously happened very quickly & by the time it was understood what was happening it was too late. I'm wondering if the social & intergenerational contacts in Italy (& Spain) are just that much greater than they are in northern European countries. It is one of the things that has always made Italy such a uniquely appealing country to visit or live in.

 

[Milouse]

Please remember everyone in the UK (and elsewhere), open your windows and clap at 8pm... As we are an hour behind CET, if anyone on the forum is from France and hears a lot of noise across the Channel at 7pm, you'll know why . Salut!

That would be 9 PM here, not 7. Or, to be correct, 21h00.
Our clapping is at 20h00, so 7 PM in UK, I bet you didn't hear us !
At least that breaks the lovely small Provence village sound of Paris these past days.

Germany, for instance has a very different progression - a far less consistent rise in infections & a way lower mortality rate. Does anyone understand why that is?

Germany not only does more tests, but they also don't limit them to hospital arrivals at is now the case in southern Europe.

 

[PzR Slim]

Italy, the canary in the coronavirus coal mine, continues to show a decline in new cases for the 4th day in a row. However, it's not as yet a steep drop off, but a gradual decline. This is at 17 days into lockdown mode. This would continue to suggest about a 3 week time frame to get a handle on the spread of the virus, perhaps 4 weeks to really contain it. That is assuming a pretty comprehensive shutdown & I'm not sure many countries have yet reached that point yet.

However, they are becoming increasingly concerned that the virus has spread to Rome and the south. They are fearful of a repeat of what has happened in the north.

 

[FPV MIC]

You would think high testing would result in high recorded infection rates.

It could also be because they're picking up the asymptomatic cases as well (that are not being picked up in other countries) they're doing a much better job of containment.

 

[Biggles]

Came across this on CNN regarding Germany:

https://www.cnn.com/videos/world/20...hnk-vpx.cnn/video/playlists/coronavirus-intl/

Also I notice that the US has now passed China with the number of reported Covid-19 cases.

 

[Dennisch]

Also I notice that the US has now passed China with the number of reported Covid-19 cases.

Only if you think that the "official" numbers coming from China are legitimate.

 

[Jezza819]

23 sailors aboard the air craft carrier USS Theodore Roosevelt have now tested positive. up from 3 just two days prior.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/26/politics/coronavirus-cases-us-aircraft-carrier/index.html

 

[Biggles]

Only if you think that the "official" numbers coming from China are legitimate.

True, but do you really think the number of recorded cases in the US is an accurate indication of actual infections?

 

[Dennisch]

True, but do you really think the number of recorded cases in the US is an accurate indication of actual infections?

No, but that's only logical. According to everyone who knows their stuff about this, the amount of infections is much greater than the actual number of known cases. But as China quarantined cities with a combined population of Italy, Germany and several other European countries, their numbers aren't even close to truthful, but what else can you expect from such a corrupt bunch?

 

[McLaren]

Germany not only does more tests, but they also don't limit them to hospital arrivals at is now the case in southern Europe.

Does the recent news that Bosch has a test that can be done in 2.5 hours and doesn’t need a lab factor into Germany’s results or is it yet to be actually used on the German public?

 

[Dotini]

Although Italy seems to be the focus of attention, the figures there don't seem to correspond necessarily with what is happening elsewhere. Germany, for instance has a very different progression - a far less consistent rise in infections & a way lower mortality rate. Does anyone understand why that is? I don't hear anything on the news about what is happening in Germany - only the worst case scenarios, which are Italy & Spain. Are the differences social/cultural rather than medical?

I am toying with an hypothesis that suggests geography plays a role in the prevalence of this virus infection. It suggests areas on the lee side of mountains and areas exposed to onshore winds will have higher rates of infection than those places which do not have these geographical characteristics.

I'm also working on another theory that explains why there is an increasing regime of virus epidemics of ever greater infectivity, and why this regime will persist for a number of additional years and perhaps decades. The new normal.

 

[Milouse]

Does the recent news that Bosch has a test that can be done in 2.5 hours and doesn’t need a lab factor into Germany’s results or is it yet to be actually used on the German public?

I don't know that specifically but I could have written my message days ago, so the Bosh test could only make Germany numbers even more odd compared to other countries.

 

[Biggles]

I don't know that specifically but I could have written my message days ago, so the Bosh test could only make Germany numbers even more odd compared to other countries.

Looking through the coronavirus statistics there are definitely some hard to explain anomalies. Differing death rates, differing proportions of serious/critical to mild cases etc. I've got to believe that some of the extreme discrepancies are due to different ways of collecting &/or tabulating results. The most basic statistic - the infection rate - is to start with a pretty approximate figure, as without accurately testing everyone it can only be an estimate.