All I can say is ROFLMFAO!
Here's my reply,.. not very original considering it's copied from this web-site <
http://www.hero.ac.uk/inside_he/odds_on_apocalypse5051.cfm>
But I've heared a lot of news about this new book,.. on NPR, BBC, and MSNBC. I guess this guy has some decent credibility on his side
Odds on apocalypse
Our final century:
make or break time
for humanity
APOCALYPTIC CONTENDERS are coming thick and fast these days. From SARS to Weapons of Mass Destruction and North Korean nukes, the twenty-first century looks like a perfect place for pessimists.
Martin Rees, the eminent cosmologist and Fellow of the Royal Society, has now provided the essential handbook for prophets of doom. Our Final Century, published by Heinemann, takes a broad look at our prospective Armageddons and concludes that the human race has only a 50/50 chance of making it through the next hundred years.
Reess argument, outlined in accessible pop science style, is familiar enough. While the threat of nuclear apocalypse remains with us, the new century will throw up a terrifying array of new global threats anything from bio-terrorism and dirty bombs to killer robots: we may even one day be threatened by rogue nanomachines that replicate catastrophically, or by superintelligent computers.
This is not even the worst that could happen. Atom-crashing experiments could start a chain reaction that erodes everything on Earth; the experiments could even tear the fabric of space itself, an ultimate Doomsday catastrophe whose fallout spreads at the speed of light to engulf the entire universe. Strewth
!
While Cold War apocalypse was held at bay by the deterrent principle of Mutually Assured Destruction, technological advances will put terrifying destructive power in the hands of fanatical individuals. Long before individuals acquire a Doomsday potential indeed, perhaps within a decade some will acquire the power to trigger, at unpredictable times, events on the scale of the worst present-day terrorist outrages. Rees calculates that a nuclear explosion at the World Trade Center, involving two grapefruit-sized lumps of enriched uranium which may already be in the possession of terrorist groups would have devastated three square miles of southern Manhattan, killing hundreds of thousands of people.
Our Final Century is, as the portentous title suggests, somewhat broad in its terms of reference. Reess nightmare vision takes in both the very real the threat of bioterrorism or nuclear accident and the completely wacky superintelligent robots which invent ever more complex machines leading to a spiralling technological Armageddon.
Cataloguing the various ways in the world could end is, however, just part of Reess ambitious scheme. The book includes accounts of the nuclear proliferation treaties and the Pugwash conferences, as well as a potted history of the Cuban Missile Crisis. This author is clearly not shy of offering his ten cents worth on the great events of modern history. On the Cold War, he concludes: I personally would not have chosen to risk a one in six chance of a disaster that would have killed hundreds of millions and shattered the physical fabric of all our cities, even if the alternative was a certainty of a Soviet takeover of Western Europe.
One in six? The odds, it turns out, a just a recap of the Russian roulette metaphor he used on the previous page. The book, aiming at a general readership, reads all too often like pub philosophy: lots of opinion, precious little hard evidence. On travel, for example: Much travel will, however, become superfluous, superseded by telecommunication and virtual reality. This is a startling assertion, given that most experts predict a massive growth in air travel, and ever more congested roads. No evidence is offered to back up the claim.
On nuclear materials, Rees pronounces: Chechen rebels and other subnational groups may already have appropriated some weapons. This terrifying prospect is left unsubstantiated, while the author moves breezily on to the next grave subject on his list.
For an author of Reess eminence, this is a poorly researched and sketchily written excursion into subjects of acute and immediate importance. Attempting to cover everything including two whole paragraphs on the future of energy, and a feeble chapter about the future of space exploration the book manages to be superficial about the most profound issues facing the human race. How much better it would have been if Rees had simply edited the book, with the chapters written by specialists in each field.
The future of mankind may well be uncertain and precarious. To simplify the issues to a 50/50 chance over hundred years of history seems more like a marketing ploy than a scientific thesis.
TM Satterthwaite
Our Final Century, Will the human race survive the twenty-first century? by Martin Rees, is published by Heinemann