Europe - The Official Thread

[TRGTspecialist]

And the winner of the British media source that has told the most fibs about EU laws is.....








....The Daily Mail (not a shock at all).


http://www.economist.com/blogs/graphicdetail/2016/06/daily-chart-15

http://blogs.ec.europa.eu/ECintheUK/euromyths-a-z-index/

I don't doubt the idea that the DM and friends are peddling lies, but I'm having a very hard time taking that Economist article seriously.

For a start, their source for debunking claims made against the European Commission is..........the European Commission? Really? Probably one of the last places I'd use as a starting point for examing claims against any political organisation would be the organisation itself! If, say, the British government - or better yet, Donald Trump - set up websites to "debunk" allegations about them, I wouldn't at face value take those seriously either. I wonder if the Economist would react differently........

Maybe I'm being harsh, and they haven't taken that page at face value - that they've independently verified at least the majority of the articles and judged it to be reputable.........though they don't indicate they've done so in their article. And I worry it would be difficult for individuals like myself to verify them - I've only glanced at a small number of the claims but not only do some of them not provide any sources for their rebuttals, some of the older ones don't even source the original claim!

Then for good measure they add this at the end:

"Sadly, for all the commission’s hard work, it is unlikely to be heard. The average rebuttal is read about 1,000 times. The Daily Mail’s website, by contrast, garners 225m visitors each month."

I have no idea what this tells me. The traffic for individual articles on an EU website (definitely not the only way to read about EU myths, and almost certainly not the most popular outlet for it), versus the traffic of the entire DM website? Stories about which gym the Kardashians go to and all? What?

I sympathise with the Economist's arguments, it's just that article strikes me as a terrible way of making them.

 

[Touring Mars]

France goes to the polls today in the first round of the Presidential elections, with 11 candidates vying to make it into the top 2, who will then face a second vote in May to decide the winner. Of the 11 candidates, 4 have a realistic chance of finishing in the top 2 today:

Macron remains the favourite to win overall, and polls suggest that while Marine Le Pen (the far right candidate who wants a referendum on the terms of France's EU/Eurozone membership) is likely to make it to the run-off vote but unlikely to beat whoever she may face in that vote.

 

[Touring Mars]

Polls have just closed in France and the first exit poll(s) suggest that Macron ('En Marche!'; centre) and Marine Le Pen (Front National; far-right) may have made it through to the run-off vote next month. Two early polls both put Macron and Le Pen on 23% each, with Fillon and Melenchon on around 19% each and Hamon on 7%.

edit: Beniot Hamon has said that voters should support Macron in the second round.

edit 2: Francois Fillion urges his supporters to vote for Macron as well.

 

[Sanji Himura]

Macron and Le Pen are officially in the second round. Current results have Le Pen trailing Macron by a little over 2 points.

 

[Dennisch]

The EU parliament voted today about having the spending of their allowance checked by independent accountants, to make sure it's being used as it should be.

The result?

Nope!

These crooks don't want us to know where our money really is going.

 

[Touring Mars]

Oeuf!

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/w...retagne-brittany-front-national-a7718056.html

 

[UKMikey]

Oeuf!

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/w...retagne-brittany-front-national-a7718056.html

They're lucky she didn't retaliate Prezza-style.

 

[Liquid]

Oeuf!

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/w...retagne-brittany-front-national-a7718056.html

Up the Celts.

That Prescott punch is still one of the most amazing things I have ever seen.

 

[TRGTspecialist]

Remember how it was impossible for Trump to become President, according to the polls?

This just isn't in the same ballpark right now. Error in the Brexit polls (~4 points) and the US election polls (~2 points) combined still doesn't get Le Pen level. A massive Macron scandal being uncovered in the next few days would make me think twice about her chances. (and okay, since this is France, that definitely isn't impossible........)

Possible 'welp' incoming........

'Emmanuel Macron campaign hacked on eve of French election'

Whatever is in the leak, as far as I understand it's release has been timed so Macron cannot respond to it, due to France's campaign blackout rules.

 

[Dennisch]

Ah, tres bien!*





*Ah, very good, for all you monolingualists.

 

[prisonermonkeys]

Whatever is in the leak

If the French have their way, we won't know about it.

 

[Milouse]

And to add to @TRGTspecialist about polls, it's worth noting that first round polls have been of surgical accuracy for the 11 candidates.
Last Ifop poll published Friday evening from the morning polling (it's a rolling poll with 1/3 of the whole sample refreshed per day):

Le Pen didn't end the campaign on a good trend, and several officials from the party said Friday that to set a 40% score sunday would be a victory for them...

As for the leak, french online media publish a lot about it, but not leaked content. Anyway, so far nothing of interest emerged (i mean other than Pizzagate-like stuff, which won't surprise anyone since the spreading involved the same accounts).

 

[Milouse]

Ah ah...

 

[jake2013guy]

I can't be the only one realising similarities between the US Presidential election and this.
Media have an obvious preference.
Media's preference has an email scandal of some sorts.
Media's preference loses.

I could be wrong but these are some similarities between the 2 and i'm sure there are others.

 

[Milouse]

Media have an obvious preference.

That's your first but only similarity.

Media's preference has an email scandal of some sorts.

Dissimilarity: there's no email scandal, there are two last minute failed fakes, debunked in two hours for the first, and a bit more than 24 hours for the second.

Media's preference loses.

That's not a similarity but a fantasy.

Other Dissimilarity:
- Popular Vote decides in France.
- Recent polls about this type of election in France has proven to be reliable.
- An other famous country elected a populist clown that shown is incompetency to the people who will vote today.

 

[prisonermonkeys]

An other famous country elected a populist clown that shown is incompetency to the people who will vote today.

We went through something like this a while ago. The federal Liberal government was deeply unpopular, and they lost three straight state elections from commanding positions. Despite warnings from the Prime Minister that populist and protest votes would ultimately be detrimental, there was talk that they could have lost a fourth until thet got the message and changed (they have since lost two more, but those losses were down to state issues). Not by much, but just enough to stave off defeat.

I suspect the wave of ultra-conservatism has broken. Brexit went through and Trump got elected, but despite having a similarly populist platform, Wilders lost the Dutch elections. If Le Pen loses, it could be a sign that populism and ultra-conservatism is losing momentum, especially since Macron is a centrist and not someone as equally removed from the centre as and diametrically opposed to Le Pen.

 

[Touring Mars]

Initial projections predict a decisive win for Macron in the French election, with a projected 65.5% of the vote.

 

[Famine]

Initial projections predict a decisive win for Macron in the French election, with a projected 65.5% of the vote.

There's a lot of satisfied sighing and relief all over Twitter from the usual suspects at this result. There's so many comments that refer to how nice and smart and sensible the people of France are for choosing Macron over the far-right maniac, and lots of sticking the boot into the USA and the UK for not having the same nice, smart, sensible people and electing Trump and voting for Brexit...

... but not one of them seems to have realised that the far-right maniac was, by a comfortable margin, the French people's second most popular choice. Millions voted for her - in fact more than ten million voted for her - to do the job and she came second.

It's not like she lost 99.3% of her previous support in a single night (like UKIP did) and it is in no way an indication that 'far-right extremism' (they mean racism) and 'anti-intellectualism' (they mean stupid people voting) are on the decline, as they're currently crowing. In fact the UK local election results were a far greater indicator of that (except that the blue Tories won instead of the red Tories, who are far less racist) compared to the National Front coming second in a national election.

 

[Robin]

It's now official. Macron has won the French presidental election.

 

[Biggles]

There's a lot of satisfied sighing and relief all over Twitter from the usual suspects at this result. There's so many comments that refer to how nice and smart and sensible the people of France are for choosing Macron over the far-right maniac, and lots of sticking the boot into the USA and the UK for not having the same nice, smart, sensible people and electing Trump and voting for Brexit...

... but not one of them seems to have realised that the far-right maniac was, by a comfortable margin, the French people's second most popular choice. Millions voted for her - in fact more than ten million voted for her - to do the job and she came second.

It's not like she lost 99.3% of her previous support in a single night (like UKIP did) and it is in no way an indication that 'far-right extremism' (they mean racism) and 'anti-intellectualism' (they mean stupid people voting) are on the decline, as they're currently crowing. In fact the UK local election results were a far greater indicator of that (except that the blue Tories won instead of the red Tories, who are far less racist) compared to the National Front coming second in a national election.

Sadly, that's all very true. However, it is worth bearing in mind that there are a lot of complicating factors. I can't help feeling that the difference between the French election & the US is that, in the end, more French voters who were not necessarily enthusiastic about Macron voted to prevent a Le Pen win, whereas in the US a lot of "liberal" voters stayed home rather than vote for HRC. I think French voters were wary of creating a Trump scenario in their own country after watching events in the US.

 

[ryzno]

I wonder why we always hear the whole, "the racist and uneducated voted for the right", during elections...

And everyone on the left always agrees. Even in other countries. You can't possibly tell me the left and right have swapped agendas two centuries later, in coordination world wide...

Edit: I'm asking for permission(preferably from a mod) to post a video of a reporter over the pond who has no problem telling it how it is VERY bluntly. It has a good bit of language.

 

[andrea]

Good for you, France.

 

[Milouse]

Le Pen high score reflect a shift in dominent ideology in France. The far right ideas used to be ostracized, but since Sarkozy planted the seed of what he call the "uninhibited right" during his campaign in 2007, far right intellectuals put the suits of the rebels and get a strong momentum over the years (books sales records, popular youtube channels...). Le Pen is the political layer above that.

I saw a slight crack in their road to power though: during this campaign, sociology details indicates that the younger generation has been less incline to vote for Le Pen than the older one (the younger one from previous election that's now older). Joining Le Pen young movement may seems less "cool" than before.

@ryzno, if by right you mean far-right, this idea about uneducated is not pregnant in France, the Le Pen vote match a mix of geographical (away from city) and sociological (poverty) map. As for the republican right vote, well, you immediatly see where money is when you see Republican's candidate high score map

@Famine Agree, but to be accurate: Le Pen didn't came second by a confortable margin (she, as 2nd in first round, ended separated by just 400k and 600k gap from 3th and 4th). Also, beyond supporters, she have to face a strong opposition (called "Front Republicain") that do not want her no matter what and would vote for a goat if it was her only opponent.

 

[Famine]

@Famine Agree, but to be accurate: Le Pen didn't came second by a confortable margin (she, as 2nd in first round, ended separated by just 400k and 600k gap from 3th and 4th).

Or 5.5% ahead of the next person. A 5 point gap is huge - Brexit was decided on less! She was also first choice in 216 constituencies, behind Macron by 24, but ahead of third-place Melenchon by 149.


I'm not entirely sure that this is the resounding defeat of the 'far-right' it's being made out to be. In fact it may turn out to be one of its biggest successes - Le Pen by far outstripped her father's efforts, and Macron doesn't exactly have the most straightforward job ahead of him, considering the zero national assembly members that En Marche have ever had.

 

[PeterJB]

It's the same as the Dutch elections, that was not a defeat of the far-right, Rutte lost seats and Wilders gained them, just not enough to win outright but still to become the main opposition in the country.

 

[Milouse]

Or 5.5% ahead of the next person. A 5 point gap is huge - Brexit was decided on less!

Apples and oranges: 5% of all voters is not the same than 5% of a given candidate that made 20%. That a kind of gap than we saw filled in less than a week during the the last three month in polls. Plus, in the political spectrum, the other voters are more fragmented across multiple candidates.

I'm not entirely sure that this is the resounding defeat of the 'far-right' it's being made out to be. In fact it may turn out to be one of its biggest successes

You're looking at two distant points, but they are other points in between that shows a slight decline in the last months. As results arrives, we see several cities won by Front National a few years ago that voted for Macron, not her.

Still, we're basically agree, i remember being frightened to know than 10% of people i cross* in the street were voting for his father, 25 years ago, see where we are now...

(*): Le Pen voters used to hide their vote then, so this increased the suspicion towards every one.

 

[Famine]

5% of all voters is not the same than 5% of a given candidate that made 20%.

No, the gap from first to second was about 2% of all voters and from second to third about 0.85% of all voters, but she had a 5.5 point gap to the third place - that is, the total of her votes was 5.5% greater than his.

Still, we're basically agree, i remember being frightened to know than 10% of people i cross* in the street were voting for his father, 25 years ago, see where we are now...

Yeah, she's pretty much doubled his tally. It was 16.5% outright of all votes (Macron 18.5%) that had her in first, and 20% of all votes (Macron 25%) that had her in first or second.

But people are saying how great a victory this is against fascists in Europe

 

[Biggles]

No, the gap from first to second was about 2% of all voters and from second to third about 0.85% of all voters, but she had a 5.5 point gap to the third place - that is, the total of her votes was 5.5% greater than his.

Yeah, she's pretty much doubled his tally. It was 16.5% outright of all votes (Macron 18.5%) that had her in first, and 20% of all votes (Macron 25%) that had her in first or second.

But people are saying how great a victory this is against fascists in Europe

Well, just as everyone who voted for Trump was not sexist, racist, & xenophobic, not everyone who voted for Le Pen is a fascist. I think it did show that, when push comes to shove, a significant majority of the French people (what I'm reading is 66% to 34%) rejected nationalism in favour of an expansive, liberal, pro-European outlook.

 

[Imari]

I can't help feeling that the difference between the French election & the US is that, in the end, more French voters who were not necessarily enthusiastic about Macron voted to prevent a Le Pen win, whereas in the US a lot of "liberal" voters stayed home rather than vote for HRC.

The US election was a cluster:censored:. Even with hindsight of Trumps craziness being president, I still have reservations that Clinton would have been any better. I think it's the difference between having two objectionable candidates versus one that's objectionable and one that is just uninspiring.

 

[FoRiZon]

Macron is like Bernie Sanders of France. That's why he won.