Europe - The Official Thread

Touring Mars
I can't see how it can work in its present form - it either fully integrates or it will disintegrate, and right now I can't see 'full integration' happening...

This is an interesting article about the role that Germany has played in the current Eurozone debt crisis - in short, Germany is acting in its own self interest and steadfastly refusing to take steps that might help alleviate problems in other EU member states. It is hardly surprising, since German politicians are voted in by German people to do look after German interests first and not, say, Greece's interests... this being the case, it is hard to see how 'full integration' can ever happen while maintaining a political and financial system that enables individual member states to behave in the way that their voters expect them to.
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Prior to the financial crash in '08, the EU had invested significantly in Southern European infrastructure over a number of years. Since the crash, it's only really benefited the Germans.

The EU's expansion strategy has saddled it with too many countries with fundamentally weak economies - it's impossible to have a common economic policy across nations with such diverse economies and for that policy to work for all the countries... and Germany's strength means it's fundamentally running EU economic policy to suit itself.

So, if you're German, you're super happy. You have a currency that's massively undervalued, you're exporting massive volumes of high value cars (for example), and those cars are cheaper than they should be - if Germany had it's win currency it would be (minimum) 20% higher vs USD.

But if you're Greek/Spanish/Portugese/Italian, it's too high - these countries would ideally like to devalue if they weren't tied in to the currency.

Personally, I'm struggling to see how the Euro survives as a currency. If Penn gets elected in France, it may well be the final catalyst.

The worry is if the Euro does collapse, it will likely have a cataclysmic impact on the Global economy given Europe is the largest trading block in the World.
 
I personally don't think the Euro will collapse entirely, but the Eurozone as it currently stands very well may. Basically, Germany and a few other Eurozone 'champions' could keep the Euro and the rest should leave - they could even form their own lower value common currency, a 'Europa league' as it were.

I don't think that Le Pen will win the elections in France, but if she does then it really is game over for the Euro. The trouble is, however, that for the Euro to survive long term, then France, Holland, Italy, Spain etc. will always have to vote in favour of keeping the currency, no matter what happens. To quote an old Irish saying, nationalists 'only have to be lucky once', whereas Europhiles need to be 'lucky' forever. Of course, that is pretty unlikely, hence the only way to ensure that their luck never runs out is to ensure that the decision to maintain membership of the Euro cannot be continually up for question - sooner or later it will have to be put beyond the influence of individual member state governments...
 
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Touring Mars
German politicians are voted in by German people to do look after German interests first and not, say, Greece's interests... this being the case, it is hard to see how 'full integration' can ever happen while maintaining a political and financial system that enables individual member states to behave in the way that their voters expect them to.
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Is democracy in the guise of populism and nationalism becoming a barrier to the more universal, global concept of democracy?
 
We need names and numbers of the people who knowingly let these countries with dodgy economies and credit ratings into the club.

They are at fault for a big part. Sure, PIGS have blame for not helping themselves but give an alcoholic a bar tab and don't be surprised that he drinks it away. Whoever gives the tab, the enabler, they need one hell of a bollocking.
 
Liquid
We need names and numbers of the people who knowingly let these countries with dodgy economies and credit ratings into the club.

They are at fault for a big part. Sure, PIGS have blame for not helping themselves but give an alcoholic a bar tab and don't be surprised that he drinks it away. Whoever gives the tab, the enabler, they need one hell of a bollocking.
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http://allbusinessnumbers.com/bundestag-address-phone-number-28656
 
Touring Mars
This is an interesting article about the role that Germany has played in the current Eurozone debt crisis
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So Germany's economy didn't suffer so much during the crisis and that's enough to imply Germany is responsible for the crisis? Wow, just wow. And the tighter fiscal rules (guess the author means the Fiscal Stability Treaty) proposed by Germany and discussed and ratified by most other members is just an enforcement of the rules of the Stability and Growth Pact that have been in place since the beginning of the Euro and were broken many times since then by many countries including Germany without consequences. And if the alleged german influence on the ECB would be real why do we have record low interest rates now?
Touring Mars
Germany is acting in its own self interest and steadfastly refusing to take steps that might help alleviate problems in other EU member states.
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And what might these steps be? A debt cut for Greece -- don't you think Spain, Italy, Ireland and others will want debt cuts too when this route is chosen?
Stotty
Since the crash, it's only really benefited the Germans.
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Maybe german companies, but not german people -- for example and as mentioned in the article wages in Germany haven't increased much over the past years, interest rates are on a record low so pensions and savings crumble and as Germany is a land of savers they suffer directly. Can you point out other benefits?
Stotty
So, if you're German, you're super happy. You have a currency that's massively undervalued, you're exporting massive volumes of high value cars (for example), and those cars are cheaper than they should be - if Germany had it's win currency it would be (minimum) 20% higher vs USD.
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As i said already companies might profit from higher export rates but all in all Germans suffer from undervalued wages and shrinking savings -- can't see the logic how Germany can profit from the Eurozone debt crisis or even actively caused it to profit.

All in all that's the narrative that always worked: put the blame on someone else and carry on as if nothing happened -- on to the next crisis.
 
tarnheld
So Germany's economy didn't suffer so much during the crisis and that's enough to imply Germany is responsible for the crisis?
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You inferred that, I didn't see a clear implication from @Liquid. I think he was referring to Merkel's "defining" role in the crisis negotiations and plan rather than trying to say that Germany was responsible. Just my take on it, of course :)
 
TenEightyOne
You inferred that, I didn't see a clear implication from @Liquid. I think he was referring to Merkel's "defining" role in the crisis negotiations and plan rather than trying to say that Germany was responsible. Just my take on it, of course :)
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I was referring to the linked article. Incidently i read up on a few different articles from the author Simon Wren-Lewis, and he has made some good points about the crisis (mis)management that i have to wonder if he had just a bad day writing the article in case. Especially the accusation of german employees and employers working together to cut down wages (of the employees) to get a competitive edge over the rest of Europe -- that's just hilarious.
Nevertheless i understand that Merkel's course isn't well appreciated because for those insisting on contracts too much rules were broken and for those with a sympathy for the greek people the sanctions are too hard. Now that the greek debt is mostly in the hand of the ECB there would be more leeway to loosen the strict saving policy for Greece. But i don't get the focusing on Germany when EU policy is discussed outside of Germany -- after all the Troika are the EU institutions (and IWF) and all members had a word in this. The strict inflation control is german policy of the German Central Bank (an institution independent from the government) for many years even before the Euro and getting rid of german sovereign debt is a central promise of CDU, the party Merkel is heading, so how can Merkel promise strict savings at home and not push for savings in Greece? If it's wise to do so is a another question, but the position is understandable at least.
Maybe EU member states could take heed of the practice of equalization payments between federal states in Germany -- a topic of heated debate here as there are debtor and lender states, and some have shifted from one to the other over the years: for example Bavaria was a debtor for most of the time but became lender only after the late eighties. But solidarising credits doesn't seem to be en-vogue to discuss nowadays, even if it happens all the time -- sadly it's mostly private credits solidarized by the tax-payers.
 
tarnheld
And what might these steps be? A debt cut for Greece -- don't you think Spain, Italy, Ireland and others will want debt cuts too when this route is chosen?
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There are no easy steps that anyone can take to address the situation in Greece, but a common view is that Germany could be doing more to help alleviate Greece's current pressing problems, such as allowing inflation to rise or to support quantitative easing, but most of all it really comes down to agreeing with the IMF that Greece needs massive debt relief - none of those options work well for Germany, but they could relieve the pressure on Greece.

Clearly, a debt cut is largely out of the question for the reason you point out - one cannot write off any Greek debt without also writing off the debts of others, and that wouldn't end well. What may have to happen, however, is debt pooling or issuing Euro bonds - rich Eurozone countries paying off the debt of poorer countries - debt relief by another name - but again, Germany and others (understandably) don't like this either. But, sooner or later, in order to have a fully integrated EU, there will need to be something resembling that (as if it doesn't exist already) but clearly the current situation is not working.

The current 'solution' seems to be 'keep Greece on a tight leash until such a time as the Eurozone economy as a whole has grown so much that the debt becomes payable'... that is all well and good until one looks at what that actually means for the people of Greece, which is that no matter who they vote for in their domestic elections, it matters more what the German finance minister says than whoever the Greeks decide to vote for - unless, of course, they vote to quit the EU. The 'tight leash' scenario might have had a chance of working if not for the ridiculously long terms of the current 'bailouts' (loans) which basically mean Greece will be in this situation for decades, even if it did everything that is being asked of it (and that is a big if).
 
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tarnheld
So Germany's economy didn't suffer so much during the crisis and that's enough to imply Germany is responsible for the crisis? Wow, just wow. And the tighter fiscal rules (guess the author means the Fiscal Stability Treaty) proposed by Germany and discussed and ratified by most other members is just an enforcement of the rules of the Stability and Growth Pact that have been in place since the beginning of the Euro and were broken many times since then by many countries including Germany without consequences. And if the alleged german influence on the ECB would be real why do we have record low interest rates now?

And what might these steps be? A debt cut for Greece -- don't you think Spain, Italy, Ireland and others will want debt cuts too when this route is chosen?

Maybe german companies, but not german people -- for example and as mentioned in the article wages in Germany haven't increased much over the past years, interest rates are on a record low so pensions and savings crumble and as Germany is a land of savers they suffer directly. Can you point out other benefits?

As i said already companies might profit from higher export rates but all in all Germans suffer from undervalued wages and shrinking savings -- can't see the logic how Germany can profit from the Eurozone debt crisis or even actively caused it to profit.

All in all that's the narrative that always worked: put the blame on someone else and carry on as if nothing happened -- on to the next crisis.
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In relation to those parts of your post quoting mine...

There's no blame assigned to Germany for the crash.. that was greedy bankers trying to create money from nothing (as usual).

I have massive respect for Germany and its people (I have known and worked with many of them over the years, and like them enormously).

If German companies don't make profits, German workers don't have jobs, the German Government doesn't have tax income, and services/social support would get slaughtered as a consequence... so complaining that wages haven't risen much doesn't make me feel particularly sorry for Germans when you look at how bad things are for some other countries populations.

The fact is, if Germany hadn't had the Euro as a currency, and that currency hadn't been massively undervalued due to the weaker economies in the Union pulling it down, Germany would have been in a far worse position. Germany would have had a currency a minimum 25% more expensive (likely more), which would have its killed exports, ruined its trade surplus, led to negative interest rates, and significant job losses.

Of course you mostly deserve to be significantly better off than the European average- Germany has a great work culture, and has built a phenomenally strong manufacturing based economy. You're the strongest economy in Europe, and you use that power to politically influence EU economic direction... rather this than the generally lazy, tax avoiding, black market led Southern European economies (I started off trying to be diplomatic, but sometimes you have to say it like it is).

Do you think Germany would be better off outside the European Union?
 
As for the perception that Germany is benefiting from the Euro and its place in the EU while other countries are going to hell in a hand cart, that perception is not exactly helped when you have influential people in Germany saying stuff like this:

The rest of that documentary is sobering viewing for anyone who thinks that the EU is in good shape, with Guy Verhofstadt appearing (around the 29 minute mark) to have a very different view of what the concept of 'reforming the EU' means.
 
Touring Mars
Clearly, a debt cut is largely out of the question for the reason you point out - one cannot write off any Greek debt without also writing off the debts of others, and that wouldn't end well. What may have to happen, however, is debt pooling or issuing Euro bonds - rich Eurozone countries paying off the debt of poorer countries - debt relief by another name - but again, Germany and others (understandably) don't like this either. But, sooner or later, in order to have a fully integrated EU, there will need to be something resembling that (as if it doesn't exist already) but clearly the current situation is not working.

The current 'solution' seems to be 'keep Greece on a tight leash until such a time as the Eurozone economy as a whole has grown so much that the debt becomes payable'... that is all well and good until one looks at what that actually means for the people of Greece, which is that no matter who they vote for in their domestic elections, it matters more what the German finance minister says than whoever the Greeks decide to vote for - unless, of course, they vote to quit the EU. The 'tight leash' scenario might have had a chance of working if not for the ridiculously long terms of the current 'bailouts' (loans) which basically mean Greece will be in this situation for decades, even if it did everything that is being asked of it (and that is a big if).
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I don't have enough insight in these complex debt matters to be able to judge what might be the best solution to get Greece back on track. I don't know if they would be better off outside the Eurozone -- they could have shrinked their debt by devaluation of their currency but i can't think how this would have helped the greek people, looking at some historic cases of runaway inflation. I guess the debt crisis is solved as most of the debt is now in ECB or collective Eurozone hands and can't cause a collapse of banks relevant to the financial system, so 'loosen the tight leash' would be possible, by debt cuts (there were several hidden debt cuts already) or giving out more credits for greek state investments, but i wouldn't wait for Merkel or Schäuble to step forward -- after all they are as conservative as you can be. But if Germany would profit from Euro undervaluation, just why do they insist on no debt cuts -- i guess it would send the Euro further down...

Stotty
The fact is, if Germany hadn't had the Euro as a currency, and that currency hadn't been massively undervalued due to the weaker economies in the Union pulling it down, Germany would have been in a far worse position. Germany would have had a currency a minimum 25% more expensive (likely more), which would have its killed exports, ruined its trade surplus, led to negative interest rates, and significant job losses.
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It might sound like a convincing argument, but why should only Germany profit from the undervalued currency and not other European members? Since Germany is not only a big exporter but a big importer too, Intraeuropean export/imports shouldn't depend on the Euro exchange rate. German exports to the USA didn't suffer much when you got more than 1,50 USD for a Euro 7 or 8 years ago. So i think these currency whoulda shoulda coulda games are a little too synthetic and real economy is a lot more complex than that.

Stotty
Do you think Germany would be better off outside the European Union?
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No, and not for economic reasons. I think the EU is the biggest stabilizer in European history and brought their member states and people prosperity and freedom. It's a shame that selfish national interests win over unifying compromises.

Touring Mars
As for the perception that Germany is benefiting from the Euro and its place in the EU while other countries are going to hell in a hand cart, that perception is not exactly helped when you have influential people in Germany saying stuff like this
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It's a shame that european people don't see how they all are profiting from the EU. But it's the same in Germany as all over Europe -- interest of people in participating in EU politics and in the fate of other Euro countries is nonexistent, the skeptics rise and instead of working on improving the EU it will be canceled and in ten years all will be back to zero again. :indiff:
 
tarnheld
I guess the debt crisis is solved as most of the debt is now in ECB or collective Eurozone hands
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This is how the Greeks may wish to see it, but the view from elsewhere (notably Germany) is very different. Germany say that Greek debt is not the shared responsibility of the Eurozone and is steadfastly opposed to debt pooling, even though that appears to contradict the very reason behind the Eurozone i.e. to make it impossible for one member state to go under by being supported by the other members. But Germany view the situation differently to Greece insomuch as they believe that the ECB can act as a lender of last resort, but not write off debts or bail out stricken nations unconditionally - Germany may agree that Greece needs money, but they (rightly) insist that Greece do something in return and, crucially, that Greece ends up paying back what she owes - Greece, on the other hand, seem to think that their debt should be written off and/or that the ECB (and by extension, the other EU member states) pay the debt for them while life in Greece carries on much as it did before i.e without the oversight of and the reforms demanded by Germany, the IMF, the ECB etc. etc.

tarnheld
It's a shame that european people don't see how they all are profiting from the EU.
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While I would like to agree with you and I can see many benefits of European integration, the problem is that not all people are 'profiting' from the EU - indeed, youth unemployment in Greece, Italy and Spain is unacceptably high - and there is little doubt that this is a direct result of these countries being in the Eurozone. Greece is something of a special case, but the situation in Italy and Spain - two of Europe's biggest economies - is increasingly dire. Meanwhile, in Germany, youth employment is lower than anywhere else in the Eurozone, at a very healthy 7%. As evinced by the comments in the video I posted above, Germany considers itself (and is) in very good shape compared to Greece, Spain and Italy - but not only is the imbalance particularly massive, it is also widely perceived in the affected countries to be a case of Germany 'profiting' while they are losing out, largely because of the imbalances created by all being part of a common currency.

It is not without a massive dose of irony that Germany is being perceived by so many as the bad guy in a situation where they have pretty much done nothing wrong, and, if anything, are bending over backwards to make the EU work. But there is not much Germany can do when there are serious 'structural' issues with the way the Euro was designed to work, with the net result that strong economies (such as Germany) reap a massive benefit from membership of the Euro, while weaker economies (such as Italy and Greece) are going under.

--

Jean-Claude Juncker has set out his '5 pathways' to a better EU today...

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/201...claude-junckers-five-scenarios-future-europe/

... some of these have me thinking that the EU could, if it wanted to, implement reforms that so many people in the UK who voted to leave the EU might have liked to see, like increasing restrictions on the free movement of people - how ironic would it be for Brexit to trigger a wave of reforms in the EU that would make the average Leave voter wish we hadn't left. That said, I think that it is considerably more likely that the EU will not go down that road, and will double down on the path toward full union, ignoring the current alarm bells that are sounding across the continent and ignoring the portents of the Brexit vote.
 
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Touring Mars
This is how the Greeks may wish to see it, but the view from elsewhere (notably Germany) is very different. Germany say that Greek debt is not the shared responsibility of the Eurozone and is steadfastly opposed to debt pooling, even though that appears to contradict the very reason behind the Eurozone i.e. to make it impossible for one member state to go under by being supported by the other members. But Germany view the situation differently to Greece insomuch as they believe that the ECB can act as a lender of last resort, but not write off debts or bail out stricken nations unconditionally - Germany may agree that Greece needs money, but they (rightly) insist that Greece do something in return and, crucially, that Greece ends up paying back what she owes - Greece, on the other hand, seem to think that their debt should be written off and/or that the ECB (and by extension, the other EU member states) pay the debt for them while life in Greece carries on much as it did before i.e without the oversight of and the reforms demanded by Germany, the IMF, the ECB etc. etc.
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What you describe is politics at it's best -- differing views clashing and compromises have to be found. Of course cutting the debt would help Greece but the Euro would tumble as fears of private and public lenders of further capital losses would rise again. OTOH reforms of the hopelessly inefficient greek governmental apparatus is direly needed, i guess even the greek people would agree. So both have to meet halfway. Of course Greece is seen and sees itself in a underpriviledged position but in reality it can and does leverage it's Grexit joker -- after all debt cuts are being done behind the scene and the low interest rates and Euro undervaluation makes the debtor position less dire. Regarding the high enemployment rate in Greece and elsewhere:

Touring Mars
youth unemployment in Greece, Italy and Spain is unacceptably high - and there is little doubt that this is a direct result of these countries being in the Eurozone
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I can't see a direct cause of high unemployment -- in Spain they had long times of high unemployment before joinning the Eurozone and in fact it was at it's lowest in the years when they introduced the Euro until the 2007 banking crisis. Why do you think these countries would be better off employmentwise when not in the Eurozone? Of course the high unemployment is a big factor of EU discontent in these countries but how a government can influence the economy and create jobs isn't clear at all -- just look at the different views of economists on these things: some promote big government investments to get the job done, others think it's better for the government to cut social security laws and flexibilise the job market to make it easier for companies to hire and fire employees. In Germany the unemployment rate was higher than in Spain in 2004 so the government before Merkel introduced such a reform which wasn't met with much enthusiasm in the populace (some say it got Merkel in the saddle) but which was praised by companies and a lot of economists. But now many economists say the recent job miracle isn't a cause of this reform but Germany profiting from the Eurozone. All this makes me cautious of simple explanations of economic reasons and causations -- it's like predicting the weather or who wins the next elections.
 
The court of justice of the European Union has ruled that if it's written in the company policies, the employer can forbid his minions to wear a headscarf, or any other religious, political or philosophical sign.

Link to pdf.
 
Dennisch
The court of justice of the European Union has ruled that if it's written in the company policies, the employer can forbid his minions to wear a headscarf, or any other religious, political or philosophical sign.

Link to pdf.
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Reminds me of the case where a BA cabin crew member took the airline to court over wearing a cross necklace, and won.
 
Not sure if I agree with this. If anything forcing women not to wear headscarves is just as bad as countries that do force them. I can understand with something like a burqa which actually covers the face, but a hijab doesn't conceal one's identity, let alone a cross on a chain.
 
I don't think it's quite the same as a country (like France) banning headscarves outright - just that employers (presumably not including the government) can demand that their employees do not wear such items to work. I think that is fair enough, but I personally wouldn't want to work for a company that would not hire someone simply because they wear a cross pendant or a hijab.
 
Election day in the Dutchielands!

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28 parties and almost 900 candidates to choose from.

DEMOCRACY!!!
 
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