Magic,
Thanks for jumping in. When I'm going back and forth with someone like a6m5 and I are doing now, I'm often wanting someone else to chime in to keep the discussion fresh.
The Real Estate market is one through out history has had it ups and downs. This result is the product of serveral different factors any of which are usually pretty obvisous at the time its happening.
That's a good point. I'm glad you pointed that out because it helps make my point that the real estate market is very much like the commodities market on which the price of oil is set.
But is it fair to put a natural resource and real estate in the same barrel?
Real estate is a natural resource right?
What happens when real estate falls, the home sellers take less profit. Are you saying that oil companies will do the same.
They're taking record profits right now right? That means that earlier, when the price of oil was lower, they were taking less profits. Not only am I saying that oil companies will do the same, I have proof, and it's logically required.
How do we as a mass convince to oil companies there product is being sold less?
That's not necessary to drive down the price of oil. All that's really necessary is the prospect of oil supply in the future. Since the price is largely set by investors gambling on the price of oil going up, as soon as they think the price will go down in the future, they'll pull their investments out and the price will go down. That can happen for one of two reasons
1) As you say, people could consume less
2) Oil supplies stay bloated
Stop driving? Run to automobile compaines and demand nothing else but a hybrid? Demand our government to force auto companies to offer an alternative?
Auto companies offer an alternative now, no need for government action. All people have to do is start buying them, and buying less oil, and they'll effectively shift the supply/demand curve and potentially start making oil look like a worse investment.
The fact is, the amount of people it would take to cause such a reaction that would change things in an instant isn't going to happen.
There's nothing like punching people in their wallet to drive millions to change thier behavior. That is, as long as they don't think they can get the best of both worlds by getting the government to intervene.
Oil is a resource, something that is depended on for survival in todays world. Like Electric bills, the only thing you can do to save money is use less.
Like anything. Take any particular product available on the market. The less you purchase of that product, the less money you lose. There's nothing special about oil in this regard.
Otherwise, you are forced to pay. For this reason, the governments job do anything it can to make sure the consumer is not getting taken advantage of.
Define "getting taken advantage of". And by whom? Oil companies? Are you getting taken advantage of when you buy a house for $400,000 more than it was worth 2 years ago? Who is taking advantage of you? The seller? The seller didn't make prices go up. The seller didn't force you to buy his house, he's just offering it at the going rate and you're buying voluntarily. The same thing is happening with oil companies. They offer oil at the going rate (not something they set), and people are still voluntarily purchasing it.
Yes that's right, voluntarily purchasing it. I probably consume 1/4th the gasoline as the average consumer, and I did that by choice. All people have a choice. They have a choice of what car they buy, where they live, where they work, whether they carpool. There are a multitude of options for the average person to reduce his oil consumption.
I have the ability to reduce my oil consumption by half from what I'm currently using. I'll excersize that option if oil prices double again. But I don't think I'll need to. I'd bet most Americans could reduce their oil consumption by half without really feeling it. Many could reduce their oil consumption by 3/4 if they really wanted to. But screaming for government action is easier than changing your lifestyle.
And I think that feeling is justified when the american public sees there gas spending double, sometimes more, then sees the oil companies report record profits.
I saw the price of houses in the area I wanted to buy double in the last two years. I see homeowners making record profits from those sales. But I don't blame them for fluctuations in the market.
Going back to the analogy, real estate is a give and take industry. If you eye a house that seems perfect, but its 400,000, you can always give up something that seems a little less important and find another house cheaper.
This is a good analogy to our oil situation. Perhaps your gas guzzling SUV and your 100mi/day commute seem like the perfect situation to you, but you can always double, possibly even triple your fuel efficiency by selling your SUV and getting a more efficient car, and then you can cut your commute in half or more by moving closer to work.
You also can fiance your dream house, and get payments locked in over the time of the morgage with the option to refinace later. This allows bugeting. Something a person can depend on, know its there and plan for it.
Likewise you can plan ahead for the cost of gasoline when you purchase a car. Many people just don't factor that in to their decision.
Everyone pays for the price of gas whatever it is when they pull up for it. There is no give and take.
There is a huge give and take, but consumers first have to face high prices before they'll be willing to give a little.