Global Warming/Climate Change Discussion Thread

[Sander 001]

Rewatching Interstellar and I forgot how good the first 30 minutes are, how restrained the message of devastation is.

What generation are we?

 

[Dotini]

From spaceweather.com:

SOLAR CYCLE 25 HAS BEGUN: Solar Cycle 25 is officially underway. NASA and NOAA made the announcement during a media teleconference earlier today. According to an international panel of experts, the sunspot number hit rock bottom in Dec. 2019, bringing an end to old Solar Cycle 24. Since then, sunspot counts have been slowly increasing, heralding new Solar Cycle 25.


Click here to view NOAA's interactive sunspot plotter

"How quickly solar activity rises is an indicator on how strong the next solar cycle will be," says Doug Biesecker of NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center, co-chair of the Solar Cycle 25 Prediction Panel. "Although we've seen a steady increase in sunspot activity this year, it is slow."

The panel believes that new Solar Cycle 25 will be a weak one, peaking in 2025 at levels similar to old Solar Cycle 24. If their prediction is correct, Solar Cycle 25 (like Solar Cycle 24 before it) will be one of the weakest since record-keeping began in 1755.

"While we are not predicting a particularly active Solar Cycle 25, violent eruptions from the sun can occur at any time," warns Biesecker. Indeed, even Solar Minimum can produce a superstorm, so Solar Cycle 25 should not be taken lightly despite the panel's low expectations. Radio blackouts, power outages and severe geomagnetic storms are possible in the years ahead.

Comment:
Other factors being equal, my understanding is that weaker solar cycles will result in cooler, wetter weather.

 

[Touring Mars]

Other factors being equal, my understanding is that weaker solar cycles will result in cooler, wetter weather.

... though other factors are not equal.

We're currently at a minimum, so we should expect hotter and drier weather over the next decade... even if, paradoxically, that is 'cooler and wetter' than it would otherwise be if the next solar maximum were higher.

The last decade has seen the warmest weather on record, and yet the peak of Cycle 24 was substantially lower than most previous peaks.

 

[Dotini]

... though other factors are not equal.

We're currently at a minimum, so we should expect hotter and drier weather over the next decade... even if, paradoxically, that is 'cooler and wetter' than it would otherwise be if the next solar maximum were higher.

The last decade has seen the warmest weather on record, and yet the peak of Cycle 24 was substantially lower than most previous peaks.

Absolutely, yes, other factors are not equal. Reduced economic activity, especially airline travel, may produce an interesting affect upon weather, as would increased volcanism and forest fires. When Seattle was (and still is) blanketed by dense smoke, maximum surface temperatures dropped dramatically from forecasts.

 

[Danoff]

Absolutely, yes, other factors are not equal. Reduced economic activity, especially airline travel, may produce an interesting affect upon weather, as would increased volcanism and forest fires. When Seattle was (and still is) blanketed by dense smoke, maximum surface temperatures dropped dramatically from forecasts.

Sounds like forest fires are the answer to climate change.

 

[Dotini]

Sounds like forest fires are the answer to climate change.

Nope. Nobody thinks forest fires are an answer to climate change. Forest fires are an answer to what happens when trees are allowed to grow up into powerlines. Locals like the trees, and power company budgets as well as state forestry budgets are in distress, as they are here in Washington.

Climate change itself is not even in question, because it is always happening. Weather also happens, and it is important to distinguish between the two.

Smoke from fires as well as ordinary atmospheric clouds reflect or block the Sun's light, and lower surface temperatures during the daylight hours.

 

[Danoff]

When Seattle was (and still is) blanketed by dense smoke, maximum surface temperatures dropped dramatically from forecasts.

Smoke from fires as well as ordinary atmospheric clouds reflect or block the Sun's light, and lower surface temperatures during the daylight hours.

Can you elaborate on why this is is a statement you're considering important to make?

 

[Dotini]

Can you elaborate on why this is is a statement you're considering important to make?

Solar cycles have under appreciated effects upon Earth, its weather and climate. Perhaps you've seen a recent post I made in the Recent Earthquakes thread? I am motivated to gradually introduce greater discussion of the Sun and its cycles into the forum, especially as research advances as it is rapidly doing in the current 5 year plan and budget of NASA's exploration of the solar system. My remarks in the previous few posts began and hopefully remain in keeping with a reference to solar cycle 25.

 

[Danoff]

Solar cycles have under appreciated effects upon Earth, its weather and climate. Perhaps you've seen a recent post I made in the Recent Earthquakes thread? I am motivated to gradually introduce greater discussion of the Sun and its cycles into the forum, especially as research advances as it is rapidly doing in the current 5 year plan and budget of NASA's exploration of the solar system. My remarks in the previous few posts began and hopefully remain in keeping with a reference to solar cycle 25.

What's that got to do with forest fires?

 

[Sander 001]

An increasingly hostile environment is becoming normalized.

 

[Sander 001]

Some good news



"The project that resulted has helped slash the district’s annual energy consumption by 1.6 million kilowatts and in three years generated enough savings to transform the district’s $250,000 budget deficit into a $1.8 million surplus."

 

[Imari]

Some good news



"The project that resulted has helped slash the district’s annual energy consumption by 1.6 million kilowatts and in three years generated enough savings to transform the district’s $250,000 budget deficit into a $1.8 million surplus."

That's cool. I've been involved for doing the math for a similar project at work a few times now and it's never been financially viable so it sounded off to me until I got to the part where they describe how they're essentially leasing out the opportunity to build solar arrays on their site in exchange for discounted power. That's a really good idea. I wonder if anything similar exists in Australia?

Edit: There is. I guess I know what I'm proposing on Monday.

 

[PeterJB]

That's cool. I've been involved for doing the math for a similar project at work a few times now and it's never been financially viable so it sounded off to me until I got to the part where they describe how they're essentially leasing out the opportunity to build solar arrays on their site in exchange for discounted power. That's a really good idea. I wonder if anything similar exists in Australia?

Edit: There is. I guess I know what I'm proposing on Monday.

I saw somewhere that most of Australia's power comes from coal. Obviously there are some but wouldn't the logical thing to do to be to build a gargantuan solar power plant the size of a large city somewhere in that enormous, open, empty space in your country's interior, possibly within the vicinity of Alice Springs so it's not completely off the beaten track? Sunshine is consistent throughout the year and there is more than enough space to build a plant that could power the entire country potentially.

 

[mika haka]

How can anyone not see humans are causing global warming?

I didnt even think that was up for debate.

Regardless humans are the only species that can reverse it and we need to act fast.

 

[Barra333]

Problem is the loss of electricity when it is transported long distances.

 

[PeterJB]

Problem is the loss of electricity when it is transported long distances.

Does electricity dissipate along powerlines, which in this case would have to be hundreds of miles long to reach all the major cities?

 

[TexRex]

How can anyone not see humans are causing global warming?

I didnt even think that was up for debate.

Regardless humans are the only species that can reverse it and we need to act fast.

People debate the notion of anthropogenic climate change because it being a problem caused by man suggests that it is man's responsibility to curb it. People don't want to take on that burden, either through daily inconvenience or financial strain, so they place the blame on something else.

Does electricity dissipate along powerlines, which in this case would have to be hundreds of miles long to reach all the major cities?

Yes, electricity dissipates over distance, I gather due primarily to resistance expressed as heat lost to the environment immediately surrounding transmission lines.

 

[Famine]

Does electricity dissipate along powerlines, which in this case would have to be hundreds of miles long to reach all the major cities?

It does, but they run much higher potentials to mitigate the losses. Long-distance lines of 150 miles or more run at up to 800kV.

There's a new breed of lines starting to enter service now, above 800kV (UHV) - with theoretically global spans available. Several in Brazil are over 1,000 miles, with one from the 11GW Belo Monte hydroelectric facility to Rio de Janeiro coming in over 1,500 miles.

 

[PeterJB]

It does, but they run much higher potentials to mitigate the losses. Long-distance lines of 150 miles or more run at up to 800kV.

There's a new breed of lines starting to enter service now, above 800kV (UHV) - with theoretically global spans available. Several in Brazil are over 1,000 miles, with one from the 11GW Belo Monte hydroelectric facility to Rio de Janeiro coming in over 1,500 miles.

So theoretically my idea could be feasible. Of course the Outback is not completely devoid of civilisation, so you won't necessarily need to run uninterrupted from Alice Springs; almost perfectly in Australia's geographical centre, to all the major cities on the coast. Windorah for example is roughly halfway from Alice Springs to Brisbane, so you could build some kind of power station that extends the range of the power supply there (can you tell I'm not an electrical engineer?) so what would've been 1,200 miles of uninterrupted power lines becomes 600 miles.

 

[Imari]

I saw somewhere that most of Australia's power comes from coal. Obviously there are some but wouldn't the logical thing to do to be to build a gargantuan solar power plant the size of a large city somewhere in that enormous, open, empty space in your country's interior, possibly within the vicinity of Alice Springs so it's not completely off the beaten track? Sunshine is consistent throughout the year and there is more than enough space to build a plant that could power the entire country potentially.

You'd think so, wouldn't you? What you're failing to take into consideration is the tremendous amounts of money the coal industry spends on politics.

https://www.theguardian.com/environ...off-climate-action-australia-ex-pm-kevin-rudd

 

[TexRex]

I'm shocked by Murdoch's involvement. Also by water's wetness.

 

[Morgoth_666]

But... but... think of the birds!

 

[Imari]

But... but... think of the birds!

They're called sheilas down here mate.

 

[Sander 001]

More good news



"the statistics“20 to 50 percent cheaper” is based on a calculus of companies building solar projects, not something that has throughput for consumers or even solar homeowners. But it’s still a big deal, because the cost to build power plants is a major part of why so much of the world has stuck with coal and gas power."

 

[Dotini]

More potentially interesting news...the release of long-frozen methane deposits in the arctic has begun, and may even be unstoppable.

Scientists have found evidence that frozen methane deposits in the ArcticOcean – known as the “sleeping giants of the carbon cycle” – have started to be released over a large area of the continental slope off the East Siberian coast, the Guardian can reveal.

High levels of the potent greenhouse gas have been detected down to a depth of 350 metres in the Laptev Sea near Russia, prompting concern among researchers that a new climate feedback loop may have been triggered that could accelerate the pace of global heating.

The slope sediments in the Arctic contain a huge quantity of frozen methane and other gases – known as hydrates. Methane has a warming effect 80 times stronger than carbon dioxide over 20 years. The United States Geological Survey has previously listed Arctic hydrate destabilisation as one of four most serious scenarios for abrupt climate change.

The international team onboard the Russian research ship R/V Akademik Keldysh said most of the bubbles were currently dissolving in the water but methane levels at the surface were four to eight times what would normally be expected and this was venting into the atmosphere.

“At this moment, there is unlikely to be any major impact on global warming, but the point is that this process has now been triggered. This East Siberian slope methane hydrate system has been perturbed and the process will be ongoing,” said the Swedish scientist Örjan Gustafsson, of Stockholm University, in a satellite call from the vessel.

https://www.theguardian.com/science...se-scientists-find?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Other

 

[Dotini]

Have Doctors Frankenstein and Mengele have entered the operating theater? Are mad scientists now on a quest to thwart global warming by injecting aerosols into the atmosphere to dim the skies? I can barely wait to find out!

WASHINGTON — As the effects of climate change become more devastating, prominent research institutions and government agencies are focusing new money and attention on an idea once dismissed as science fiction: Artificially cooling the planet, in the hopes of buying humanity more time to cut greenhouse gas emissions.

That strategy, called solar climate intervention or solar geoengineering, entails reflecting more of the sun’s energy back into space — abruptly reducing global temperatures in a way that mimics the effects of ash clouds spewed by volcanic eruptions. The idea has been derided as a dangerous and illusory fix, one that would encourage people to keep burning fossil fuels while exposing the planet to unexpected and potentially menacing side effects.

https://dnyuz.com/2020/10/28/as-climate-disasters-pile-up-a-radical-proposal-gains-traction/

 

[BobK]

Have Doctors Frankenstein and Mengele have entered the operating theater? Are mad scientists now on a quest to thwart global warming by injecting aerosols into the atmosphere to dim the skies?

I rather doubt it.

 

[VBR]

Here are a couple of interesting debates I found. Both have good Q&A's afterwards as well.

Idso vs Bennett.


Mann & Titley vs Moore & Curry

 

[UKMikey]

BBC: a Montana mining town which staked its hopes on a Republican win faces a bleak future

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-us-2020-55050347

EDIT: Totally tree'd by @TenEightyOne

 

[polysmut]

No-kill, lab-grown meat to go on sale for first time.
https://www.theguardian.com/environ...l-lab-grown-meat-to-go-on-sale-for-first-time

If my understanding is correct, this could have a massive positive impact for the continuing survival of humans on earth.