GT6: potential savior of the franchise?

[Scaff]

Yes, GT5 has been the lowest seller based on figures from PDI, but that is soon to change as it has most likely passed GT1. Plus, let me ask you this; how long has GT4 (for example) been out as compared to GT5? This is important because I remember when PDI updated it's figures GT4 had some more sales just a short time ago.

Given that the vast majority of sales for GT have always been in the first year and the tail (while long) drops off rapidly and becomes significantly less profitable.

I acknowledge that it may pass GT2 and maybe GT1's figures, that still puts it way behind being a strong selling GT title and still shows a decline in sales since GT3.

Considering that GT5 is the PS3's highest selling exclusive title, that comment should be reserved for titles such as SOCOM and Twisted Metal.

No it should also apply to them, but be reserved for them? No as that would imply it could never happen to any other titles and never happen to GT.

The game isn't over yet, Scaff. As I said, we don't know what the final totals of GT5 are going to be. Let us see where it is at in two years.

No, of course it won't. GT3's sales totals are mountain that no game in the racing genre will ever reach. You know this, but continue to hold it as an Ace up your sleeve. My point was that comparing the PS2 totals to the PS3 isn't quite a fair comparison since the PS2 has two full games.

I disagree, generational sales are what shareholders and the Sony board will look at, that PD have to date only managed one full title this gen is an issue of their own making. Two titles per gen have the advantage of pooling development cost and maximising your return on investment, that PD have failed to do that so far this gen and produced a title that has sold less than the last two full titles are a mark against PD.

The comparison may well be unfair, but that unfortunately is how the world of business works.

But if you were to do the math on the initial 5+ million in sales at $60 per unit, GT5 is looking good as far as revenue is concerned. Eventually, GT5 will hit $10 like all previous titles and sell some more.

OK lets do it


5.5 million at $60 = $330 million, 15% of which is $49.5 million

3.5 million at $20 = $70 million, 15% of which is $10.5 million

Total = $60 million.

So they manage to cover development, still not going to tide them over without a launch for the decades that were claimed, hell they can't even keep paying people at that rate.

GT5 was a financially break even product for PD (Sony would as the publisher have made from it as the advertising costs would have been significantly lower than development and they would retain roughly 20%).

As such with a single full title this gen had PD been an 3rd party studio they would have struggled to stay in business having spent six years developing a product, a $60 million cost and breaking even. Which would then leave nothing for development of the next title.

One could look at the sales of GT5 (while lower then others) in another perspective. GT5 has sold the most units this generation when it comes to a single title racing game.

As critical of GT5's "failure" as you are, think about this.. can you imagine being another developer and having PDI's problem? I am sure SMS and Turn 10 would love the problem of ONLY selling 9 million copies in competitive environment.

OK lets take a look at them.

SMS - 6 million units across two titles
T10 - 14 million units across four titles.

Now I know you are going to cry foul about multiple titles, and to be honest I don't care. What investors would see is two companies minimizing development costs and getting full value sales across multiple launches.

Now it failed for SMS as sales for Shift 2 tanked dropping for 5 million to 1 million (maybe a lesson in that - don't assume you will always get the customer). T10 however have used a core development across four separate title in one generation, spreading the development cost and ensuring a maximum return for it.

So in answer to you question from a pure business point of view I would rather have 14 million sales across four launches (because full price launch sales make me far more than tail end sales) than 9 million across one title. Its a better return on each launch and a better use of the development costs, which reduce for each title.

Edited to add - sorry forgot to add in - its four times the DLC sales opportunities as well.

 

[Zer0]

Are you actually aware of how much GT5 cost to develop?

Rough estimates are that it cost a minimum of $60 million dollar.

Now they have sold 9 million units, at lets say an average of $40 each (that's being generous considering how quickly it went to a budget release), which would give $360 million. Great if PD got all of that, but they get around 15%, which would return around $54 million.

In other words its quite likely that DLC is the only thing that returned PD to profit with regard to GT5 and they would have only got around 15% of that as well, meaning they are most likely still having to be part funded by Sony and certainly could not survive for decades.

That's an awful of speculation!

You don't know what % get PD. You have read an article with a rather vague "typical $60 videogame" dissection chart:

So in the above example there is a common third party multiplatform game. PD is a first party developer from Sony and GT5 an exclusive platform game. The most important for SCE. Do you know what % get a typical SCEJ first party studio? and do you know what % get the most important SCE studio or how it gets financed? or what other revenues they get aside of videogame sales? No, you don't.

Also you forgot to add the % of the other GT sales (GT4, GT5P, GTPSP...) that keeping selling during the same generation. Same with the DLC sales that worked very well.

Sales are not declining. GT5 at its end life will probably surpass the GT4 total numbers. That along with GT5P, GTPSP and the DLC sales will close a generation very positively for PD, even without the need to release a GT6 in the actual platform.

12/2010 - 5.5 million
2/2011 - 6.37 million
12/2011 - 7.3 million
9/2012 - 9 million
2013 - ?
2014 - ?+?
2015 - ?+?+?

Can't be arsed to look up figures right now, but I suspect the biggest competition GT has would be Forza. I think we'd probably want to look at (x) amount of GT titles sold within a specific timeframe, as compared against (y) units of Forza sold, for the same timeframe.

I do realize it's two entirely different consoles, but that I'm aware of, there aren't any other PS racing titles (that aren't just arcade racers) that have sold nearly as well as GT.

As part of Polyphony Digital’s periodic update on its official sales site, the studio revealed the latest sales uptake since the last update. According to the latest figures It appears that Gran Turismo 5 has sold a whopping 1.7 million more copies since last December.

While Gran Turismo 5 was released near the end of 2010, the game seems to continue to sell impressively to this day as the sales of the game recently crossed 9 million units. To put things into perspective, GT5 has sold fairly close to what Forza 4 (a 2011 release) sold during the same time period (December 2011 – September 2012). Forza 4 is estimated to have sold a little over 2 million during the 10 month period of its release 12 months ago.

Total franchise numbers for Gran Turismo now top 67.8 million units as of September. With sales for Gran Turismo 5 surpassing 9 million units, the single iteration is now closing in on the lifetime sales of the entire Forza franchise which is estimated to be at 12 million which includes Forza Motorsport (original Xbox), Forza 2, Forza 3 and Forza 4.

http://gamer.blorge.com/2012/11/05/...-million-encroaching-on-forza-lifetime-sales/

 

[BoneSawTX]

I think it could be a redeemer or the start of a downward trend. It will sale good because the name but if it's just a cleaned up GT5 with the same boring AI and gameplay i could see it turning off many users.

As for myself I think I've already made the decision to move to FM after buying an xbox a few days after last christmas just for FM4. If GT6 is on PS3 I'm going to give it a few months if i do get it to hear reviews. If it's on PS4 I'm out, I'm not buying a Sony product again for one game and it turn out to be an incomplete mess after 5 years.

 

[Tenacious D]

Scaff, you still debate this matter as if GT5 Prologue never existed. This is why discussing things with you is often problematic. You sometimes frame matters in a way that isn't entirely accurate or fair.

Prologue production costs were likely small, perhaps a few hundred thousand. But even if it cost a million or two in US dollars, it sold more than 5.3 million units. If half sold for $40 and half for $20, that's still an amount of money you're writing off.

And on Forza, Microsoft has never admitted how much the series cost them. We have no idea how much the Porsche license cost, no idea how much the outsourcing cost, and how much they had to pony up to hire that Hollywood graphics studio to develop the new lighting engine for Forza 4. There were up to 400 people working on Forza 4:



This is likely something that only a company as rich as Microsoft would consider doing.

 

[shadynader]

Sooooo many things you have failed to take into consideration Scaff, intentionally or not I don't know but I honestly would not know where to start as some of your points are contradicting each other. Also there is quite a lot of guesswork mixed with facts that I do not agree with. Obviously the facts are not the problem but the context in which they are used is.

I don't know if you are intentionally trying to blur the line between the two, if so then congratulations, if not then you need to read your own posts back to see if they make good sense or not. I am not saying I disagree with the main point your trying to get across but some of your posts are misleading to the point of confusion. Hence why I suspect so many people are questioning them.

 

[Blank_Redge]

Total franchise numbers for Gran Turismo now top 67.8 million units as of September. With sales for Gran Turismo 5 surpassing 9 million units, the single iteration is now closing in on the lifetime sales of the entire Forza franchise which is estimated to be at 12 million which includes Forza Motorsport (original Xbox), Forza 2, Forza 3 and Forza 4.

http://gamer.blorge.com/2012/11/05/...-million-encroaching-on-forza-lifetime-sales/

NICE.

While I suspect there would be a few disgruntled folks who would consider jumping both platforms *and* titles, if GT6 didn't live up to expectations, it's nice to know that GT is still king of the hill.

Not that they should rest on their laurels, of course. *nods*

Grazie for bringing the data to the thread, sir!

 

[Scaff]

That's an awful of speculation!

You don't know what % get PD. You have read an article with a rather vague "typical $60 videogame" dissection chart:

So in the above example there is a common third party multiplatform game. PD is a first party developer from Sony and GT5 an exclusive platform game. The most important for SCE. Do you know what % get a typical SCEJ first party studio? and do you know what % get the most important SCE studio or how it gets financed? or what other revenues they get aside of videogame sales? No, you don't.

Which is why I quite clearly stated they were rough figures and provided a link to the source of them.

Its also why I stated quite clearly that PD will have support from Sony as well.

So your point is?

Also you forgot to add the % of the other GT sales (GT4, GT5P, GTPSP...) that keeping selling during the same generation. Same with the DLC sales that worked very well.

No I haven't forgotten them at all, I was using a single example.

Dig up the development costs for each of them and we can keep going if you wish, GT4 will certainly have made money, being as the bulk of the development was covered in GT3 (a point I made about multiple release per gen). GT PSP most likely didn't, etc.

DLC wise, it will have helped, but not as much as it could have done if delivered in a structured manner.

Sales are not declining. GT5 at its end life will probably surpass the GT4 total numbers. That along with GT5P, GTPSP and the DLC sales will close a generation very positively for PD, even without the need to release a GT6 in the actual platform.

12/2010 - 5.5 million
2/2011 - 6.37 million
12/2011 - 7.3 million
9/2012 - 9 million
2013 - ?
2014 - ?+?
2015 - ?+?+?

Any chance of a source for that.

As part of Polyphony Digital’s periodic update on its official sales site, the studio revealed the latest sales uptake since the last update. According to the latest figures It appears that Gran Turismo 5 has sold a whopping 1.7 million more copies since last December.

Shipped not sold.

While Gran Turismo 5 was released near the end of 2010, the game seems to continue to sell impressively to this day as the sales of the game recently crossed 9 million units. To put things into perspective, GT5 has sold fairly close to what Forza 4 (a 2011 release) sold during the same time period (December 2011 – September 2012). Forza 4 is estimated to have sold a little over 2 million during the 10 month period of its release 12 months ago.

Total franchise numbers for Gran Turismo now top 67.8 million units as of September. With sales for Gran Turismo 5 surpassing 9 million units, the single iteration is now closing in on the lifetime sales of the entire Forza franchise which is estimated to be at 12 million which includes Forza Motorsport (original Xbox), Forza 2, Forza 3 and Forza 4.

http://gamer.blorge.com/2012/11/05/...-million-encroaching-on-forza-lifetime-sales/

The Forza series is far closer to 15 million not 12 and it would be rather unlikely for GT5 to hit that (which would make it better selling than GT3). I do like how you use up to date GT5 figures, but six month old Forza ones and miss an entire title (Horizon does exist you know).

All of which is however a moot point, from a Sony/PD point of view GT5 cost more than any previous title to develop and has returned less in revenue that just about any release in the series.

The odd point is that I'm the one who said that sales were not a key point in this topic, but some people like to throw numbers around with very little understanding of what they mean from a financial point of view. GM sell more cars than just about any manufacturer on the planet, yet they don't make a dime. You can go bust on turnover.

Oh and Zero, any chance at all you are ever going to answer the dozen or so questions you have walked away from in other threads?

 

[maxpontiac]

I acknowledge that it may pass GT2 and maybe GT1's figures, that still puts it way behind being a strong selling GT title and still shows a decline in sales since GT3.

LOL. Compared to GT3 and GT4 which games anywhere are? Sure sales have declined, but I have provided excellent examples of why.

No it should also apply to them, but be reserved for them? No as that would imply it could never happen to any other titles and never happen to GT.

I see your point, but really, you act as if GT as a series is in trouble..

Two titles per gen have the advantage of pooling development cost and maximising your return on investment, that PD have failed to do that so far this gen and produced a title that has sold less than the last two full titles are a mark against PD.

Read what you just said here...

Now I know you are going to cry foul about multiple titles, and to be honest I don't care. What investors would see is two companies minimizing development costs and getting full value sales across multiple launches.

And yet you posted this? You acknowledge multiple titles providing an advantage, yet don't care if I bring it up? Nice.

So they manage to cover development, still not going to tide them over without a launch for the decades that were claimed, hell they can't even keep paying people at that rate.

GT5 was a financially break even product for PD (Sony would as the publisher have made from it as the advertising costs would have been significantly lower than development and they would retain roughly 20%).

By all means, provide some type of proof of you aware of PDI's profit and loss margins, percentages, etc...

As such with a single full title this gen had PD been an 3rd party studio they would have struggled to stay in business having spent six years developing a product, a $60 million cost and breaking even. Which would then leave nothing for development of the next title.

Yes, the hypothetical disaster scenario. Why even bring that up when Sony and PDI are joined at the hip?

Take a look at this as it may help you understand why Sony has internal studios (such as PDI) and why these sky is falling "what if's" are a waste of time to even bring up.

http://www.eurogamer.net/articles/2...n-to-make-and-made-sony-more-than-100-million

SMS - 6 million units across two titles
T10 - 14 million units across four titles.

PDI - Roughly 56,000,000 across 5 Gran Turismo games.

So in answer to you question from a pure business point of view I would rather have 14 million sales across four launches (because full price launch sales make me far more than tail end sales) than 9 million across one title. Its a better return on each launch and a better use of the development costs, which reduce for each title.

Ok, allow me to take the route you have defined and apply to PDI and the Gran Turismo series as all of these occured during or around (for the nitpicky) the aforementioned T10 and SMS game launches.

GT5P - 5,350,000
GTPSP - 3,860,000
GT5 - 9,190,000

18,400,000 across three launches which trumps ANYTHING out there by T10, SMS, yeah, you get the point.

Both GTPSP and GT5 used assets from GT4 so from a business standpoint, I say PDI is doing just fine...

 

[kjb]

Personally like someone else said I don't think this a savior or franchise breaking title. GT6 could be the best game ever and then GT7 could be terrible and start a downturn or 6 could be bad and then a GT7 could knock it out the park. Anyway I hoping PD follows their history with the even numbered GTs being really good. That said this will probably be the first time since GT1 I won't get a GT game first day

 

[Scaff]

LOL. Compared to GT3 and GT4 which games anywhere are? Sure sales have declined, but I have provided excellent examples of why.

I see your point, but really, you act as if GT as a series is in trouble..

Actually no I haven't. Which is why I originally said sales were not relevant to he discussion. What I have said is that should GT6 continue this trend it may be an issue for GT as a series.

Read what you just said here...

And yet you posted this? You acknowledge multiple titles providing an advantage, yet don't care if I bring it up? Nice.

And?

By all means, provide some type of proof of you aware of PDI's profit and loss margins, percentages, etc...

I've not claimed that I have them, which is why I said they were rough figures, that was quite clear.

Yes, the hypothetical disaster scenario. Why even bring that up when Sony and PDI are joined at the hip?

Take a look at this as it may help you understand why Sony has internal studios (such as PDI) and why these sky is falling "what if's" are a waste of time to even bring up.

http://www.eurogamer.net/articles/2...n-to-make-and-made-sony-more-than-100-million

This entire topic title is based around hypothetical situations, shall we stop all threads that are?

As for Heavy Rain, yes that had exactly the same outlay as GT5 didn't it. Oh wait 16.7 and 60 are a bit different.

PDI - Roughly 56,000,000 across 5 Gran Tursimo games.

So they shared the exact same development cost did they?

No, which is the point. Shared development across a gen is advantageous.

Ok, allow me to take the route you have defined and apply to PDI and the Gran Turismo series as all of these occured during the aforementioned T10 and SMS game launches.

GT5P - 5,350,000
GTPSP - 3,860,000
GT5 - 9,190,000

18,400,000 across three launches.

All three of these titles used assets from GT4 so from a business standpoint, I say PDI is doing just fine... no matter what small percentage of internet users may have to say.

Assets, not core development and both T10 and SMS supported all releases via DLC to improve the return.

All of which I still maintain is a massively irrelevant to the topic at hand.

I can boil it down to three rather basic points.

1. Has the gen been the worst for GT in terms of sales? Yes
2. Has this gen been the most expensive for development? Most likely
3. Are the above ideal for PD? No.

 

[Zer0]

Which is why I quite clearly stated they were rough figures and provided a link to the source of them.

Its also why I stated quite clearly that PD will have support from Sony as well.

So your point is?

My point is that this is not a point:

Keep in mind that these long tail sales will not return anything close to the same amount to PD as early sales (15% of $20 is a lot different to 15% of $60 dollars)

Any chance of a source for that.

Were at the GTP main page!

https://www.gtplanet.net/tag/gt5-sales/

Shipped not sold.

Do you know how videogame sales are recorded?

Shipped = sold to retailers

Oh and Zero, any chance at all you are ever going to answer the dozen or so questions you have walked away from in other threads?

I have answered that many times, I don't live here 24/7 or have the time to reply to all that don't agree with me or put words in my mouth for its convenience. I prefer to leave some discussions when become hostile to me or non fair. You know that "GT sucks" attitude is well received here but GT is awesome is bullied.

 

[Blank_Redge]

The Forza series is far closer to 15 million not 12 and it would be rather unlikely for GT5 to hit that (which would make it better selling than GT3). I do like how you use up to date GT5 figures, but six month old Forza ones and miss an entire title (Horizon does exist you know).

Well... again, not to niggle with semantics, but Horizon strikes me as being more "arcade-y" than the other Forza titles, or any of the GT titles. Though, your other points are well-taken.

 

[Tornado]

I have answered that many times, I don't live here 24/7 or have the time to reply to all that don't agree with me or put words in my mouth for its convenience. I prefer to leave some discussions when become hostile to me or non fair.

You mean when someone asks you to back up your statements when it's clear you're talking from ignorance. Like, say, using a video of a glitched car to show how GT5 engine sounds are setup dependent when in reality the sound differences were entirely because the video was of a glitched car. Got it.

👍

 

[Scaff]

My point is that this is not a point:

That the percentage may change doesn't change that point at all, if the unit cost you sell something for reduces (no matter to whom) the amount you make off it as a percentage drops, that's rather basic maths.

Were at the GTP main page!

https://www.gtplanet.net/tag/gt5-sales/

Nope don't see the exact fiugures and dates you posted.

Edited to add - ahh I see what you did now. Problem is we have no idea how the dates PD chose to update the site relate to the actual numbers sold/shipped.

Do you know how videogame sales are recorded?

Shipped = sold to retailers

So you can assure me that none of those were sale or return can you.

I have answered that many times, I don't live here 24/7 or have the time to reply to all that don't agree with me or put words in my mouth for its convenience. I prefer to leave some discussions when become hostile to me or non fair. You know that "GT sucks" attitude is well received here but GT is awesome is bullied.

No actually the pattern I see is that when you make a claim you can't back up or are plain wrong on you disappear from the thread. It has nothing to do with being hostile, it has to do with you making claims you can't actually support. Such as claiming a video show how amazing GT5 sounds in LPCM audio via 5.1, when the video actually shows 2.0 audio output via phono cables being remixed to fake 5.1 via an £80 Logitech PC speaker system.

Well... again, not to niggle with semantics, but Horizon strikes me as being more "arcade-y" than the other Forza titles, or any of the GT titles. Though, your other points are well-taken.

Its still a title in the Forza series however, GT PSP was certainly dumbed down sim wise to allow it to work on the PSP, those figures still count.

 

[maxpontiac]

Actually no I haven't. Which is why I originally said sales were not relevant to he discussion. What I have said is that should GT6 continue this trend it may be an issue for GT as a series.

Actually it is. You can come up with whatever reason you want to as why sales of the GT franchise aren't relevant to this discussion and it won't change my thought process to why I believe they are.

And?

And.. it shows that logic that you apply and expect me to accept should work the other way.

I've not claimed that I have them, which is why I said they were rough figures, that was quite clear.

Rough.. indeed.

This entire topic title is based around hypothetical situations, shall we stop all threads that are?

Scaff, you know as well as I do that wasn't my point and it was that PDI won't have to face existence without Sony.

As for Heavy Rain, yes that had exactly the same outlay as GT5 didn't it. Oh wait 16.7 and 60 are a bit different.

Of course they are, but it goes to show that Sony and it's first party developers are a profitable venture.

Assets, not core development and both T10 and SMS supported all releases via DLC to improve the return.

As if GT5 didn't offer DLC (although limited). Plus, you missed my point, PDI was able to use assests from GT4 for core development in GT5 and GTPSP. As GTPlanet can vouch for, the standards carried over from GT4 to GT5 undoubtedly saved PDI some money.

1. Has the gen been the worst for GT in terms of sales? Yes
2. Has this gen been the most expensive for development? Most likely
3. Are the above ideal for PD? No.

We seem to coming full circle here Scaff.
1 - Yes, but GT5 has been out for barely over two years, while the others have had several more years to sell.
2- Agreed.
3 - Is the above ideal for anyone? No. But does PDI have the benefit of selling more copies then everyone? Yes. Does PDI have the most well known brand of video game racing? Yes.

As bad as you try to make it sound for PDI, you MUST realize that every developer in the business has a tough road to face and that is WITHOUT the benefit of the sales that GT has enjoyed.

 

[Scaff]

Actually it is. You can come up with whatever reason you want to as why sales of the GT franchise aren't relevant to this discussion and it won't change my thought process to why I believe they are.

No I have not said that GT is in serious trouble at all.

And.. it shows that logic that you apply and expect me to accept should work the other way.

No it means that what ever way you look at it, by single title or by generation, this is a harder time for PD that at any previous point.

Rough.. indeed.

Do you have better ones?

Scaff, you know as well as I do that wasn't my point and it was that PDI won't have to face existence without Sony.

Quite true, but its also doesn't ensure that they will always get what they want and/or the support the need.

Of course they are, but it goes to show that Sony and it's first party developers are a profitable venture.

No it shows that developer is a profitable venture, it doesn't automatically apply to all first part devs.

As if GT5 didn't offer DLC (although limited). Plus, you missed my point, PDI was able to use assests from GT4 for core development in GT5 and GTPSP. As GTPlanet can vouch for, the standards carried over from GT4 to GT5 undoubtedly saved PDI some money.

I don't believe I said that PD didn't offer DLC with GT5, I've stated quite the opposite in this very thread, however I've found it to have been limited and of mixed quality and frequency.

The development savings they may have made were still limited to assets and didn't stop GT5 costing $60 million, one of the largest dev budgets ever. Now if GT6 comes to the PS3 that will be a real use of he development costs incurred to date.

We seem to coming full circle here Scaff.
1 - Yes, but GT5 has been out for barely over two years, while the others have had several more years to sell.
2- Agreed.
3 - Is the above ideal for anyone? No. But does PDI have the benefit of selling more copies then everyone? Yes. Does PDI have the most well known brand of video game racing? Yes.

1 - And the first 1 -2 years has always drawn the bulk of GT's sales, and as covered its where the most profit lies, once you hit budget release that profit drops sharply.
2 - Ta
3 - Sales units =/= profit as the Heavy Rain examples shows, had that had dev cost close to GT5's it would have not made a penny. If PD had been able to reduce dev costs by 20% they would have made more money. All with the exact same sales volumes. Simply shifting units brings in cash, but it alone doesn;t mean you will be making a profit.

Oh and once NfS was king of the racing titles and the best known kid on the block, same with PES and football/soccer titles. Todays fame is no assurance of always having it.

As bad as you try to make it sound for PDI, you MUST realize that every developer in the business has a tough road to face and that is WITHOUT the benefit of the sales that GT has enjoyed.

And once again sales without profit is a risk and that's why I still believe that PD need GT6 on the PS3 and need it to turn around some of the perception problems that GT5 brought to the series. Otherwise they risk that brand image they spent so long building up.

 

[Zer0]

That the percentage may change doesn't change that point at all, if the unit cost you sell something for reduces (no matter to whom) the amount you make off it as a percentage drops, that's rather basic maths.

You are inducing a false claim using those numbers again. If they are not required to make a point there is no reason to use them.

Anyway read this before using the 15% again:
http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/entertainmentnewsbuzz/2010/02/anatomy-of-a-60-dollar-video-game.html

Nope don't see the exact fiugures and dates you posted.

I don't know what to said... you only need to click at the sales links and search for the numbers and date from every period.

"Edited to add - ahh I see what you did now. Problem is we have no idea how the dates PD chose to update the site relate to the actual numbers sold/shipped."

When PD update the sales there is always a note at the back with the date (now is *as of Sep 2012), anyway the GTP article noted every time this date.

So you can assure me that none of those were sale or return can you.

The same as you can't assure me that none of other games were sale or return. I don't see the point of discuss this or point to GT5 specifically except not liking the reality.

No actually the pattern I see is that when you make a claim you can't back up or are plain wrong on you disappear from the thread. It has nothing to do with being hostile, it has to do with you making claims you can't actually support. Such as claiming a video show how amazing GT5 sounds in LPCM audio via 5.1, when the video actually shows 2.0 audio output via phono cables being remixed to fake 5.1 via an £80 Logitech PC speaker system.

Are you sure that my point was "how amazing the GT5 sound was" and not that it sounds close to what others demand?, see? "or put words in my mouth for its convenience".

About my pattern, you would prefer that I say: -oh I will try when I found the time and will post later... and never bring back the subject as an excuse to leave?

I'm still waiting a lot of claims to be proven from you and the only I see is the same cobra vid posted again and again. Would need to ask in every post I see you posting?

 

[Scaff]

You are inducing a false claim using those numbers again. If they are not required to make a point there is no reason to use them.

Anyway read this before using the 15% again:
http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/entertainmentnewsbuzz/2010/02/anatomy-of-a-60-dollar-video-game.html

What false claim?

X% of $60 is always going to be a greater value than X% of $20, it doesn't matter what value X is, so I have made no false claim at all, you simply don't seem to be able to grasp the maths.

As for the link, you are aware that doesn't actual break down the publishers cost to show the amount the developer gets? As such it it next to useless, the only thing it tells us is that the publisher gets just under 48% of the value, some of which (and you can be sure its not 48%) goes to the developer. My example actually has 60% in publishing, development and advertising combined, which would make the 15% to the developer a high split in comparison to the figure you have just used)

So feel free to take X as a value between 1 and 48 and plug it into the above, you will see the value you get from $60 is greater than the value you get from $20, so the next time you accuse someone of making a false claim it would be a good idea to actual know what the hell you are on about.

I don't know what to said... you only need to click at the sales links and search for the numbers and date from every period.

"Edited to add - ahh I see what you did now. Problem is we have no idea how the dates PD chose to update the site relate to the actual numbers sold/shipped."

When PD update the sales there is always a note at the back with the date (now is *as of Sep 2012), anyway the GTP article noted every time this date.

And you can assure us that the dates PD updated the figures directly relate to the exact periods they were sold it, because its not like any industry deliberately plays with figures in that way is it.

Are you sure that my point was "how amazing the GT5 sound was" and not that it sounds close to what others demand?, see? "or put words in my mouth for its convenience".

About my pattern, you would prefer that I say: -oh I will try when I found the time and will post later... and never bring back the subject as an excuse to leave?

You said:

I'm discussing the GT5 sound not the samples, you have not access to the raw data that the game is using to generate the sounds so the only we have is the PS3 mixed output, and that output changes greatly depending of the game sound settings, game views and car distances from the replay cameras. The audiophile part was just another variable that can change dramatically how the sound is recorded, remixed an played throught a YT 2ch stereo vid referring to the Gallardo comparisson.

Here is and attempt to compare the sound in both games in a real multichannel environment, not a good one but preferable than the typical direct sound recordings.

When asked to clarify audiophile you said:

GT5 audiophile sound: High frequency rate and detail (clarity), 7.1 uncompressed output, full dynamic range and detailed multichannel sound position.

You directly stated that the video was recorded from a real multichannel environment, and its not. You used that video to support GT5 needing to be listened to as a 5.1 (or greater) uncompressed output to get the best from it and used that video are an exaple. When its was pointed out to you that it was none of those things you disapeared and have not posted in that thread since.

Feel free to head over to it and continue the discussion, you were not harassed, threatened or bullied in that thread, you were corrected.

I'm still waiting a lot of claims to be proven from you and the only I see is the same cobra vid posted again and again. Would need to ask in every post I see you posting?

Citation required, I don't believe I has a track record of failing to answer you at all.

Feel free to bring up any point that I did in the correct thread and I will be more than happy to reply (and I've used the Cobra vid when appropriate and have posted a large number of video tests from both GT and Forza - you have done neither).

 

[Zer0]

3 - Sales units =/= profit as the Heavy Rain examples shows, had that had dev cost close to GT5's it would have not made a penny.

You know that in the Heavy Rain example they made 100M € with just 2M sales?

Heavy Rain
Cost = $21,8M (16.7M €)
Sales = 2M
Revenues = $130M (+100M €)

GT5
Cost = $60M
Sales = 9M
Revenues = $585M


I will answer the rest tomorrow if I have time.

 

[Alex2700]

This link may be of interest to both of you Scaff, and Zer0:

Heavy Rain grossed 100 million: http://www.gamespot.com/news/heavy-rain-grossed-100-million-report-6407271

GT5
Cost = $60M
Sales = 9M
Revenues = $585M

How exactly did you calculate this? Something doesn't add up.

 

[Scaff]

You know that in the Heavy Rain example they made 100M € with just 2M sales?

Heavy Rain
Cost = $21,8M (16.7M &#8364
Sales = 2M
Revenues = $130M (+100M &#8364

GT5
Cost = $60M
Sales = 9M
Revenues = $585M


I will answer the rest tomorrow if I have time.

Not a great day for maths is it.

Heavy Rain sold 2m and has a stated revenue of $100m;, which would mean each and every copy made $50;. Which sounds a lot like projected sales figures at retail, because unless the supply chain did the job for free Sony certainly didn't see all that money (and with one chargeable DLC that was free on most release copies they didn't get much revenue that way).

What is more odd are your GT5 figures, which would have every single copy of GT5 making Sony $65, which is more that the release value of the title. So once again the supply chain would have had to work for free and even give Sony extra money for the privilege of selling the budget release when it came out (to the tune of $40) and every owner spend $5 on DLC.

Sorry but those figures just do not add up at all.

 

[tube chaser]

Good question Blank_Redge. Its a complicated discussion because we're divided on which console GT6 will be on - and that's a very important factor. Assuming that this will be a PS3 release, I feel its a wildcard entry to secure Gran Turismo's future as a viable PS4 IP.

I loved Driver, Metal Gear Solid & Gran Turismo on PSX and thought they were untouchable. PS2 arrived and GTA3 destroyed Driver for me, Metal Gear Solid 2 had me concerned about the series, but Gran Turismo was safe as houses. PS3 arrives very late in my household (December 2009) and I'm now starting to worry about the serious/realistic path GTA4 is following - but TLAD and TBOGT expansions showed a correction of that blunder. Metal Gear GOTP killed the series for me but thankfully Skyrim provided a worthy stealth combat replacement. GT5, well if it wasn't for the Spec II update I'd be very nervous. The game is competent and will always be in my rotation; and GT6 will be a day-one purchase. But, going forward to PS4, if GT6 didn't nail it - then I'm open to a more contemporary successor.

Fool me once . Fool me twice .

 

[eran0004]

I think it's safe to say that the majority of you reading this are, or were, Gran Turismo fanatics. The biggest fans also tend to be the harshest critics. Anyone that's spent any kind of significant time on this site is aware of the various complaints about GT5.

Do you expect Kaz and PD to address those complaints in GT6? Do you expect GT6 to be "everything GT5 is not?" (however you'd like to qualify that statement.)

It's even more safe to say that people who has complaints to make are more likely to voice their opinion than people who are satisfied. Going only on the feedback from sites like this gives a distorted view on the product. It can tell you that there are people who are unhappy about something, but not how many they are and certainly not how many who are happy about it. The variation of topics that "needs to be fixed" is huge, some are supported by a lot of people, some are supported only by a few. A fix that will please a thousand people and annoy a million is probably not a very good idea, if the goal is to satisfy the customer.

A lot of the topics are also contradicting each other, so it's impossible for GT6 to be everything GT5 is not, unless it's a quantum physics Shroedinger's cat simulator which can have several different states at the same time.

So the answer will have to be that PD needs to use their professional judgement and artistic vision when taking advices from consumer feedback.

 

[Tenacious D]

^ Very true.

Because of the nature of the nets and all, a lot of criticism is overblown. Like Scaff insisting that GT5 "only" shipped/sold 9 million copies plus in two years as some kind of warning sign. This was the most heavily critiqued Gran Turismo ever, and for good reason clearly, because some things just didn't work, or in the case of Standard cars - for some, Standard tracks too - a number of fans disliked them vehemently. And critics, be honest, most gamers were aware of this in this net age where even cellphones have browsers.

And GT5 still enjoyed explosive sales, so obviously a lot of things are still right. Many of us are still playing it. I'm about to get back to it myself.

Criticism is fine, suggestions are fine, especially on a board like this with members who are both knowledgeable and creative, insightful thinkers. We do want to see GT6 advance the series like Kaz tried to do in GT5. The holdouts who insist that they're done with the series or will have to be convinced to buy GT6, that probably represents a substantial number of gamers, perhaps a few hundred thousand, maybe a million or so, it's hard to say. Just as it's hard to say what they really will do when that game goes on sale. But with every bit of GT6 news sending the net buzzing about it, it's pretty clear to me that the series isn't in any trouble, either with the fanbase or gamers in general. I expect GT6 to be a platinum seller just on pre-orders again, even on PS4, and if a Prologue is offered, a good chance of that too.

 

[cassiusclay99]

Blank_Redge-> Good question... but I think the best one is: do you think a non-GTfan is going to be as hooked with GT5 as one who discovered it with GT1, or 3, or any of them actually?

How are "casual" players considering a game that misses avery step that makes it a game (which is why 90% people bought it: to have fun... not to feel a true driving simulator on the Dualshock)?

When I look at my friend list on PSN, I can't find many of them getting more than level 20 in A-Spec...not even speaking of B-Spec that basically did not touch.
That, combined with the "poor" rates in gaming sites (in GT standards)... If I were a producer, i would be more than worried that I am taking my game into the right direction.

If I were Kaz, I would start to find a vision...at last.

Emptyness has never been so obvious than in GT5.

 

[cassiusclay99]

Tenacious D-> Of course GT6 will sell fantastically! Noone denies that. Just like PES 2009, PES 2010 and 2011 did... But that does not say anything about the quality. Where is PES now compared to Fifa?

GT as no competition on Sony systems. Basically: if you are a sim fan and you have a PS3, just wait for GT.

If someone releases a great sim, with fantastic graphics, great physics, great sounds, (like Pcars for instance)etc......and with a year-by-year model (like FIFA) where they would make their game better and better, who knows where GT will be in 5 years from now?

GT business model works thanks to GT popularity (raised standards at every opus...until GT5) and thanks to the lack of opposition.
We know GT5 disappointed big time... now what if a new comer gets into play?

Things change very fast nowadays.

 

[Tenacious D]

cassius, your questions are raised a lot these days. I think the difference between Polyphony and other developers is that they have a lot of emotional investment in their game, more so than many game companies. Especially with Kazunori, who has mentioned in a few interviews that when he releases a new Gran Turismo, he feels a crushing burden because he worries a lot about the reception of the fans. He has to have been cut pretty deeply by criticism of GT5 from just about every corner.

And the thing is, if the game was lame, if things weren't better overall than in GT4, it would have sold more like Forza or Shift. As much as it must irk a number of people here, fans in general didn't have a cow over the Standard cars and tracks, or the XP system, or only having time of day and weather options on a few tracks, or the glitchy graphics, or even the goofy paint chip issue. Even the gimpy online structure didn't drive them away, because the essence of the game is really good, which is running your cars around those tracks.

So, between knowing how to deliver good racing essence and working like mad to please fans, I expect a GT6 with more solid racing elements and very few weird experiments. Such as no car bowling or soccer, thank God.

 

[dr_slump]

If you're only talking about sales, we shouldn't forget that only about half as many PS3s got sold compared to PS2s.

PS2 over 150 million units, I've read 154 million on several sources.
PS3 soon 80 million units (or already)

Source? PS2 should be know. In case of the PS3 I could give you the link to a IDC report about console sales from december 2012, but that report would cost you 4500$ to view.

 

[cassiusclay99]

cassius, your questions are raised a lot these days. I think the difference between Polyphony and other developers is that they have a lot of emotional investment in their game, more so than many game companies. Especially with Kazunori, who has mentioned in a few interviews that when he releases a new Gran Turismo, he feels a crushing burden because he worries a lot about the reception of the fans. He has to have been cut pretty deeply by criticism of GT5 from just about every corner.

And the thing is, if the game was lame, if things weren't better overall than in GT4, it would have sold more like Forza or Shift. As much as it must irk a number of people here, fans in general didn't have a cow over the Standard cars and tracks, or the XP system, or only having time of day and weather options on a few tracks, or the glitchy graphics, or even the goofy paint chip issue. Even the gimpy online structure didn't drive them away, because the essence of the game is really good, which is running your cars around those tracks.

So, between knowing how to deliver good racing essence and working like mad to please fans, I expect a GT6 with more solid racing elements and very few weird experiments. Such as no car bowling or soccer, thank God.

Seriously man, this is pure PR communication. Can you imagine him say: "I don't care about my game..."?
Do you still believe what Kaz says? Seriously? Come on man... the man says absolutly anything for years ! Anything !

Now, about the sales for GT5...i explained why -imho- it sold so well (GT reputation basically) and I also explained why I think it disappointed a lot of people (scores in magazines, most people not reaching level 20, fans gringes...). Why ignore my arguments and quote Kaz's PR speeches as the undeniable truth ?

 

[Scaff]

^ Very true.

Because of the nature of the nets and all, a lot of criticism is overblown. Like Scaff insisting that GT5 "only" shipped/sold 9 million copies plus in two years as some kind of warning sign. This was the most heavily critiqued Gran Turismo ever, and for good reason clearly, because some things just didn't work, or in the case of Standard cars - for some, Standard tracks too - a number of fans disliked them vehemently. And critics, be honest, most gamers were aware of this in this net age where even cellphones have browsers.

And GT5 still enjoyed explosive sales, so obviously a lot of things are still right. Many of us are still playing it. I'm about to get back to it myself.

Criticism is fine, suggestions are fine, especially on a board like this with members who are both knowledgeable and creative, insightful thinkers. We do want to see GT6 advance the series like Kaz tried to do in GT5. The holdouts who insist that they're done with the series or will have to be convinced to buy GT6, that probably represents a substantial number of gamers, perhaps a few hundred thousand, maybe a million or so, it's hard to say. Just as it's hard to say what they really will do when that game goes on sale. But with every bit of GT6 news sending the net buzzing about it, it's pretty clear to me that the series isn't in any trouble, either with the fanbase or gamers in general. I expect GT6 to be a platinum seller just on pre-orders again, even on PS4, and if a Prologue is offered, a good chance of that too.

So you don't address the fact that you utterly missed the point of one of my posts and and then do it again.

Great stuff 👍

No one (and certainly not me) has said that 9 million sales is an 'only', rather that it points to a slow, but observable decline in sales from GT3, which combined with the drop in review scores, could if repeated, indicate a issue for the series.

You also once again fail to note that it wasn't me that brought sales up, rather I wanted the thread to discuss actual aspects of the series. Others insisted that sales were relevant and then teddies left prams when they didn't show what people wanted.

But you keep pointing that finger firmly at me, its not after all as if I haven't answered most of this already.

cassius, your questions are raised a lot these days. I think the difference between Polyphony and other developers is that they have a lot of emotional investment in their game, more so than many game companies. Especially with Kazunori, who has mentioned in a few interviews that when he releases a new Gran Turismo, he feels a crushing burden because he worries a lot about the reception of the fans. He has to have been cut pretty deeply by criticism of GT5 from just about every corner.

And the thing is, if the game was lame, if things weren't better overall than in GT4, it would have sold more like Forza or Shift. As much as it must irk a number of people here, fans in general didn't have a cow over the Standard cars and tracks, or the XP system, or only having time of day and weather options on a few tracks, or the glitchy graphics, or even the goofy paint chip issue. Even the gimpy online structure didn't drive them away, because the essence of the game is really good, which is running your cars around those tracks.

So, between knowing how to deliver good racing essence and working like mad to please fans, I expect a GT6 with more solid racing elements and very few weird experiments. Such as no car bowling or soccer, thank God.

Not the "Kaz cares so much so it will all be OK" with the sly dig at Forza thrown in for good measure defense.

Wrong thread for that I'm afraid.

If you're only talking about sales, we shouldn't forget that only about half as many PS3s got sold compared to PS2s.

PS2 over 150 million units, I've read 154 million on several sources.
PS3 soon 80 million units (or already)

Source? PS2 should be know. In case of the PS3 I could give you the link to a IDC report about console sales from december 2012, but that report would cost you 4500$ to view.

The PS2 had sold roughly around the same as the PS3 when GT3 came out and posted far higher sales figures, so yes the console sales have been thought of with regard to this.