It turns out that Akio Toyoda was right

[Veinz]

https://www.autoblog.com/news/it-turns-out-that-akio-toyoda-was-right

I agree with the notion that we are moving too quick with transitioning to EVs. This article doesn't mention how fast they depreciate either.

 

[Keef]

This article mentions the American sales data but also doesn't mention how heavily skewed that data is within America. The vast majority of EV sales are in California, followed by the biggest cities in Hawaii and Washington. California's per capita EV adoption is three times higher than the majority of states. The only spikes you'll see across the rest of the country are in the largest, wealthiest cities specifically, but even cities like Denver, DC, and NYC don't have adoption rates high enough to get their state rates anywhere close to California's. And the only reason California's are so high is because of state government subsidies.

Across the rest of the country, EVs are mostly reserved for wealthy people who drive multiple cars, or politically passionate buyers. I've got a friend who recently got a Honda Prologue and can't even charge it at home, and between that and finding out how much the range drops during winter I have a feeling she'll be making a different choice next time. Nice car but a pain in the ass for a person who can't charge at home in a garage.

Hybrids and range-extenders will dominate the next decade easily.

 

[Veinz]

Canada has stopped giving out EV rebates because the program ran out of money. There really isn't much incentive to buying one here, especially if it's your only vehicle. If Poilievre gets elected then he will likely scrap the mandate that forces automakers to only sell EVs by 2035. It's just not realistic with the state that this country is in.

 

[Mirai]

What we need is instead of pressuring automotive manufacturers to transition to electric vehicles before the technology is actually fit for purpose, we instead should be pressuring battery manufacturers to develop higher-capacity batteries so that electric cars become more efficient and therefore more desirable to the average consumer.
Because, let’s be honest, most people are going to be buying these as daily drivers. My godfather owns a BMW i4 and he loves everything about it except the range. He said that, if electric cars were cheaper and more efficient, he would’ve switched a long time ago, but unfortunately they’re just not worth the price of entry at the moment

 

[Veinz]

What we need is instead of pressuring automotive manufacturers to transition to electric vehicles before the technology is actually fit for purpose, we instead should be pressuring battery manufacturers to develop higher-capacity batteries so that electric cars become more efficient and therefore more desirable to the average consumer.

Toyota is working on solid state batteries, but they are still a few years out.

https://www.caranddriver.com/features/a63306863/solid-state-batteries-evs-explained/

 

[Mirai]

I’ve heard about those
They sound like a good solution, but as you said, they’re a long way away
Stuff like this makes me wonder if manufacturers could just put aside their differences and work together on a project like this, because it would only benefit all involved parties
Range and battery reliability are the biggest problems with electric cars atm (You know how your phone’s battery seems to last less and less the more you charge it? Imagine that problem but magnified due to the increased output), and fixing those issues would definitely make people more interested in buying electric

 

[MIE1992]

I think it's telling that the highest levels of motorsport - F1, LMDh, and LMH - all don't use full-ICE nor full-EV powertrains, but hybrids. Granted, there are other disciplines like Formula E/Extreme E, too. But even the WRC never went fully into EVs, as I read that they're moving back to full-ICE powertrains.

 

[RACECAR]

I think it's telling that the highest levels of motorsport - F1, LMDh, and LMH - all don't use full-ICE nor full-EV powertrains, but hybrids. Granted, there are other disciplines like Formula E/Extreme E, too. But even the WRC never went fully into EVs, as I read that they're moving back to full-ICE powertrains.

Mostly because from what I heard, the units turned out to not really be all that beneficial and essentially are unnecessary weight. Worth also noting that the BTCC have also ditched Hybrids (which I assume for similar reasons, although it was interesting watching teams strategize how to use the systems instead of relying on the Ballast system).

Formula E and Extreme E being Electric from the start feels like that is what made them work, thus carving out their own identity.

 

[Mirai]

I think it's telling that the highest levels of motorsport - F1, LMDh, and LMH - all don't use full-ICE nor full-EV powertrains, but hybrids. Granted, there are other disciplines like Formula E/Extreme E, too. But even the WRC never went fully into EVs, as I read that they're moving back to full-ICE powertrains.

In theory it would be possible for a manufacturer to make a full EV Rally1 car with the new WRC regulations coming in 2027, there’s a few articles about it on DirtFish

 

[Keef]

Mostly because from what I heard, the units turned out to not really be all that beneficial and essentially are unnecessary weight. Worth also noting that the BTCC have also ditched Hybrids (which I assume for similar reasons, although it was interesting watching teams strategize how to use the systems instead of relying on the Ballast system).

Formula E and Extreme E being Electric from the start feels like that is what made them work, thus carving out their own identity.

I don't think series like BTCC and WRC draw enough revenue to bother with expensive or complex drivetrains. It's never been in their identity and the fans don't care in the slightest. Series like IMSA, WEC, and F1 have massive global distribution deals and audiences but I as an American wouldn't know where to watch WRC or BTCC if I tried.

 

[lbpomg95]

The forced transition is very frustrating because it only trades one problem for another. It's also very short-sighted since it's supposedly being done for environmental reasons.

I'm sorry, but you can't save the planet with a near-3-tonne electric SUV. You can't consume your way out of climate change. The best solution was always to make vehicles lighter, at least until battery technology improves, but they're heavier than ever, which impacts efficiency.

Not to mention there's a great deal of people out there who don't live or work somewhere with EV charging available, so it's simply impossible for them to own an EV. Obviously we can keep our ICE cars for the foreseeable, I just wonder how long it'll be before governments try to price us out of owning them.

 

[opelgt1969]

The big question is just how much fossil fuel ⛽ does it take to charge an EV.

 

[Mirai]

The big question is just how much fossil fuel ⛽ does it take to charge an EV.

This is the other issue
At the end of the day, an electric car is no more environmentally friendly than an ICE or hybrid car, because most countries still produce electricity by burning stuff
Maybe if you live in Norway or Iceland it might work, but otherwise you’re better off just getting a plug-in hybrid

 

[MatskiMonk]

because most countries still produce electricity by burning stuff

We live in the UK... an EV is likely using a lot less fossil fuel to charge than an ICE.

Americans voted for a rapist criminal to drill baby, drill... so yeah, over there it might be a different story, but that's an energy policy issue brought about by morons, not an EV issue.

 

[kjb]

But the thing about electric cars is that the automobile companies have more control over the car. They can enable different features with the touch of a button. You fall behind instead of paying a repo company you can just send a signal to car to come back to the dealership ( at least that’s Ford wanted to do). I know they do some that already. I remember people getting upset that Tesla didn’t turn off cars in Russia because of Ukraine

 

[AudiMan2011]

What we need is instead of pressuring automotive manufacturers to transition to electric vehicles before the technology is actually fit for purpose, we instead should be pressuring battery manufacturers to develop higher-capacity batteries so that electric cars become more efficient and therefore more desirable to the average consumer.
Because, let’s be honest, most people are going to be buying these as daily drivers. My godfather owns a BMW i4 and he loves everything about it except the range. He said that, if electric cars were cheaper and more efficient, he would’ve switched a long time ago, but unfortunately they’re just not worth the price of entry at the moment

Or maybe instead of trying to plough ahead with EVs that nobody wants, we should be pressuring manufacturers to develop hydrogen (fuel cell or combustion) and other synthetic fuels that retain the convenience of filling up a normal petrol or diesel car.

 

[Obelisk]

Or maybe instead of trying to plough ahead with EVs that nobody wants, we should be pressuring manufacturers to develop hydrogen (fuel cell or combustion) and other synthetic fuels that retain the convenience of filling up a normal petrol or diesel car.

On that question, isn't the WRC running some type of fossil-free fuel in their cars? I'm not sure what it is, but I suppose it might be a decent step forward.

 

[McLaren]

But the thing about electric cars is that the automobile companies have more control over the car. They can enable different features with the touch of a button. You fall behind instead of paying a repo company you can just send a signal to car to come back to the dealership ( at least that’s Ford wanted to do). I know they do some that already. I remember people getting upset that Tesla didn’t turn off cars in Russia because of Ukraine

Beyond the car driving itself back, disabling your vehicle at the touch of a button has been a thing a manufacturer could wield for years. Just look at OnStar.

If the vehicle is parked and turned off, the OnStar Advisor can use Remote Ignition Block™ to prevent the engine from being restarted, allowing the police to recover the vehicle. If the vehicle is moving and after police have confirmed the vehicle is in sight, the Advisor can activate its emergency flashers — unbeknownst to the thief — for verification purposes.

When authorities confirm conditions are appropriate, the Advisor can activate Stolen Vehicle Slowdown,®which gradually slows the vehicle to an idle speed. All that’s left for police to do is to give you a call and let you know the good news. OnStar’s technology and strong partnerships with law enforcement have helped recover stolen vehicles and capture thieves since 1996.

 

[lbpomg95]

On that question, isn't the WRC running some type of fossil-free fuel in their cars? I'm not sure what it is, but I suppose it might be a decent step forward.

E-fuels are a possible replacement for petrol, and diesels already have Hydrogenated Vegetable Oil which massively improves emissions.

The issue we'll run into is having the space to grow the HVO or harness the E-fuels. I'd love for that to become a reality, but people keep squeezing out babies and there's less available space than ever, so it may not be a viable long-term solution.

Electric cars sort of answer a few issues that other alternatives don't. Thing is they have a host of other problems that people conveniently ignore, like the massive emissions at the start of the life cycle with mining lithium, or the obscene weight of the vehicles chewing up tyres, coil springs etc. Making replacement tyres every 6000 miles is a CO2 intensive process.

Not to mention, if everyone took up electric cars and somehow magically had access to charging ports, can we realistically keep up with the electricity consumption?

 

[EngieDiesel]

E-fuels are a possible replacement for petrol, and diesels already have Hydrogenated Vegetable Oil which massively improves emissions.

The issue we'll run into is having the space to grow the HVO or harness the E-fuels. I'd love for that to become a reality, but people keep squeezing out babies and there's less available space than ever, so it may not be a viable long-term solution.

The other issue is that for every alternative fuel source that's developed an entire infrastructure for transporting, storing and distributing that fuel needs to be developed as well. One of the reasons electric got popular with the auto industry is that the cost of setting up that infrastructure was quicker and far cheaper than with liquid fuels that need transport trucks and pumps with underground tanks, and part of that cost was able to be pushed onto the communities where the charging stations was built since the electrical lines were already there. Also, it helped that the private sector did much of the legwork in developing the needed technology and the carmakers could just buy up the designs for a fraction of what it cost to develop it initially.

Electric cars sort of answer a few issues that other alternatives don't. Thing is they have a host of other problems that people conveniently ignore, like the massive emissions at the start of the life cycle with mining lithium, or the obscene weight of the vehicles chewing up tyres, coil springs etc. Making replacement tyres every 6000 miles is a CO2 intensive process.

Solid state batteries are the most promising option to remedy some of these issues, but development of those is still early days and there's no guarantee that they'll be ready before the public stops caring about EVs entirely. It also doesn't address the issue of what to do with all the existing lithium batteries that will eventually not be able to hold enough charge to be useful to an automobile, but might still have enough capacity for other uses.

Not to mention, if everyone took up electric cars and somehow magically had access to charging ports, can we realistically keep up with the electricity consumption?

Not really no, but even less so now that we have thousands of AI data farms sucking up exponentially more resources for pretty much minimal gain. But I digress.

It just shows that there is no one-size-fits-all solution to the problem. EVs have a use case where they make sense, and likely so would hydrogen or other alternative fuels. But you can't point to any single one and say that it's the panacea that will make petroleum obsolete forever, just like you can't say "just build solar panels and wind turbines everywhere" or "just refurbish the old nuke plants and it'll be fine". Ideally all of the available options would be employed in smaller capacities to fit their best use cases and ease the burden on all supply chains, but as long as there's a market to be cornered somewhere that's never going to happen.