MH17 Crash In Ukraine. Known info in OP.

[prisonermonkeys]

I'd say Tone Abet had a few pints of Foster's at the time of stating that.

Oh, he's deadly serious. Tough talk on MH17 won him some domestic support at a time when he was getting hammered in the polls. But that's over and he's been remonded of just how unpopular he us. He fancies himself as the man who brought Putin to heel.

 

[prisonermonkeys]

Russia's response to Tony Abcess - "that's ... unusual":

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-10-...-unusual-russian-diplomat-says/5813096?pfm=ms

There's also no official bilateral talks scheduled between Russia and Australia. Therefore, we are forced to assume that the shoulder charge will take place on the tarmac at Brisbane airport as part of Australia's official welcome to Putin. I'm secretly hoping Putin's security detail will do nothing to stop Abbott for the sake of seeing what happens next. It will likely be the most awesome thing ever.

We'll know Abbott is serious if he's wearing a red tie.

 

[Keef]

We'll know Abbott is serious if he's wearing a red tie.

Reading a bit about Australian politics over the last few months, I just get the feeling they're not adept at making good decisions. I also feel like they're a bit cocky for a country that is 95% desert.

 

[TenEightyOne]

Reading a bit about Australian politics over the last few months, I just get the feeling they're not adept at making good decisions. I also feel like they're a bit cocky for a country that is 95% desert.

I like Australians except the ones with backpacks who travel in lumps and slosh beer everwhere when "Land Down Under" comes on. And Tony Abbott.

As @prisonermonkeys says; I hope the crucial moment when funny men with big ears stage one of the biggest undiplomatic/dangerous/nuclear fist-fights in airport history isn't spoiled by Abbott's over-conscientious security detail.

 

[prisonermonkeys]

Reading a bit about Australian politics over the last few months, I just get the feeling they're not adept at making good decisions.

They're not. They've made the mistake of assuming that every mistake they make is a good decision - after all, they got elected, right? They have also forgotten that they are governing for everyone, not just for the people who voted for them. If you're a Liberal Party supporter (and the more strongly you support them, the better it is for you), then Australia is a great place to be right now. But if you're like me and you support someone else, then you're in for a rough ride.

I also feel like they're a bit cocky for a country that is 95% desert.

Oh, they are. Two days before passing down one of the most (unnecessarily) austere and (rightfully) unpopular budgets in our history, the Treasurer and Finance Minister were caught on camera smoking cigars. The Education Minister made massive cuts to education spending - including axing the biggest educational reforms we have ever implemented - but if you look at a list of his public engagements, he's never visited a single school that stood to benefit from the program (i.e., the under-priveliged ones).

When it comes to MH17, I don't understand why we have to be a world leader. Yes, we lost people in the disaster, but I've never heard anyone suggest that we should take the lead on anything. We're Australians. We don't do that. So Abbott trying to go after Putin like this reeks of him trying go satiate his own ego.

 

[TenEightyOne]

When it comes to MH17, I don't understand why we have to be a world leader. Yes, we lost people in the disaster, but I've never heard anyone suggest that we should take the lead on anything. We're Australians. We don't do that. So Abbott trying to go after Putin like this reeks of him trying go satiate his own ego.

The "special relationship" with the US has increased in recent years too. A cynic would say that the US have a tactical eye on the Pacific but Abbott's not fooled; he knows that it's deserved personal recognition of his emergence as one of the world's leading statesmen.

DavCam suffers from the same delusions, sadly.

 

[Rage Racer]

"CyberBerkut" portal posted a copy of document which, as they say, was signed by Ukrainian Air Defence chief - colonel Igor Zorin. According to the document, Ukrainian command secretly obtains commission materials. About 2 months ago, Zorin received a document:

CyberBerkut doesn't present an English translation of the text, but my Ukrainian is good enough to translate this:

REFERENCE

The analysis of the given photo materials allows to state that the deformed pieces of fragmentation shown on them are the striking elements of the 9N314 warhead of the 9M38 ground-to-air missile of the 9K37 "Buk" or "Buk-M1" SAM system.
From the photo materials, it is visible that the deformed pieces of fragmentation have parallelepiped shape, which confirms their affiliation to the 9N314 warhead of the 9M38 ground-to-air missile.
Final conclusion about the affiliation of the deformed fragments of striking elements to the 9N314 warhead may be made in case of presence of the originals that are shown on the photo materials.

Air Defence Chief
Ground Forces Command
Armed Forces of Ukraine
colonel [signature] I.V. ZORIN
7 Aug 2014

Source: http://cyber-berkut.org/en/

CyberBerkut call themselves a group of hackers who get access to some Ukrainian documents. The geniunity of that info may be questionable, but some people still believe the Ukrainian "news", so... why not?

@TenEightyOne
Ukraine posesses old, Soviet-made Buk and Buk-M1 systems only. In Russia, all (or almost all) M1's and older are upgraded to M1-2 or scrapped and replaced with Buk-M2, like I've seen on the parade on May, 9:

Buk-M2 medium-range SAM system, launcher vehicles

Buk-M2 loader vehicles

Buk-M1-2 and Buk-M2 are usually equipped with 9M317 missiles, different from the old 9M38 used by Buk-M1 and mentioned in that document. But can use the 9M38M1, too.

 

[TenEightyOne]

Thanks @Rage Racer, I was confused by the reference to the launch system rather than the missile type itself.

So, if the missile were genuinely identified as a 9N314 warhead mounted on a 9M38 missile then that could actually have come from Buk-M1, Buk-M1-2 or Buk-M2?

 

[Keef]

When it comes to MH17, I don't understand why we have to be a world leader. Yes, we lost people in the disaster, but I've never heard anyone suggest that we should take the lead on anything. We're Australians. We don't do that. So Abbott trying to go after Putin like this reeks of him trying go satiate his own ego.

Having lost people, Australia should be a lead in the investigation. But pulling your cock out on the world stage isn't the best way to do it.

 

[prisonermonkeys]

Having lost people, Australia should be a lead in the investigation. But pulling your cock out on the world stage isn't the best way to do it.

Oh, I fully agree on both counts - yes, we should play a major role in the investigation, but we're going about it the wrong way.

 

[Rage Racer]

Thanks @Rage Racer, I was confused by the reference to the launch system rather than the missile type itself.

So, if the missile were genuinely identified as a 9N314 warhead mounted on a 9M38 missile then that could actually have come from Buk-M1, Buk-M1-2 or Buk-M2?

In theory, it could be launched from any of these three. But M1-2 and M2 are designed to use 9M317 missiles (with improved range, accuracy, and a different rod-type warhead), so it's less likely to come from the last two.
The missiles are also different in appearance (feathering):

Although CyberBerkut claims it as a proof of Ukrainian army's guiltiness, it's definetly not solid enough and doesn't prove anything. If the document was fake, I think it should contain something more certain (like "It was our crew who shot it down"), so I think it's not.

Besides, I don't see a reason why Russia should have supplied the Novorossian rebels with Buks. Radar-guided SAM systems require advanced training, take time to be deployed, cannot be spread widely between guerilla units.
Ukrainian air raids are not so massive, they don't use strategic bombers for carpet bombing from high altitude. So the militia would be good enough with MANPADs (like Igla). They are extremely mobile, cheap, effective against all air targets they have to face (Su-25, Mi-8, Mi-24 and even transport planes like Il-76), easy to wield and transport many of them in one truck. Where's the need of Buks?

Is Tony Abbott going to "shirtfront" Putin?

"You bet I am!", he tells us. I had this momentarily confused with shirt-lifting which seemed to be disastrous diplomacy, even by Abbott's standards.

Not to offend anyone, but I feel like the Australian government is simply trying to attract attention on itself. In Russia, not many people are even aware of what's happening in Australia, except for "it's a far country with kangaroos". But now, some Russians finally know who is Tony Abbott, when he promised to "shirtfront" Putin.

P.S. I'd like to see the battle.

 

[Dennisch]

You know what I am still missing? The evidence that the US claimed to have about the satellite images showing the rocket launch.

 

[Scaff]

Having lost people, Australia should be a lead in the investigation. But pulling your cock out on the world stage isn't the best way to do it.

They are....

http://www.onderzoeksraad.nl/uploads/fm/2014_07_23_PB_OVV_neemt_leiding_over_ENG_DEF.pdf

...the investigation team may be lead by the Dutch, but of the 24 investigators four are Dutch and the rest are from
the Ukraine, Malaysia, Australia, Germany, the United States, the United Kingdom and Russia along with the International Civil Aviation Organisation (ICAO).

 

[prisonermonkeys]

Not to offend anyone, but I feel like the Australian government is simply trying to attract attention on itself. In Russia, not many people are even aware of what's happening in Australia, except for "it's a far country with kangaroos". But now, some Russians finally know who is Tony Abbott, when he promised to "shirtfront" Putin.

P.S. I'd like to see the battle.

Oh, we won't be offended.

You know how Putin is extremely popular domestically in Russia? Well, Abbott is as unpopular in Australia as Putin is popular in Russia. Most of us would dearly like to see Abbott shirt-front Putin, not to strike a blow for Australia's pride, but to see Putin smack him down.

 

[Grayfox]

but to see Putin smack him dow

Heck, I'd love to see Abbott get his bloody face smacked in.

 

[Dotini]

An interesting article (and comments).
http://consortiumnews.com/2014/10/20/germans-clear-russia-in-mh-17-case/
A reasonable interpretation is that "the powers that be" want Russian gas this winter, want to stop Europe from sliding further into recession, and that it is politically necessary at this time to exonerate both Russia and Kiev from responsibility for the disaster.

 

[Scaff]

An interesting article (and comments).
http://consortiumnews.com/2014/10/20/germans-clear-russia-in-mh-17-case/
A reasonable interpretation is that "the powers that be" want Russian gas this winter, want to stop Europe from sliding further into recession, and that it is politically necessary at this time to exonerate both Russia and Kiev from responsibility for the disaster.

A rather handy chain of events, furthered by an utter lack of supporting evidence at this time.

Not saying its not true, but some meat to back it up would be good.

 

[TenEightyOne]

A reasonable interpretation is that "the powers that be" want Russian gas this winter, want to stop Europe from sliding further into recession, and that it is politically necessary at this time to exonerate both Russia and Kiev from responsibility for the disaster.

Gazprom's a big provider and their prices have been a bargaining chip several times before. People want their gas every winter and every winter we hear a scare story about how Russia are going to tighten their grip on the prices.

It never happens because, in truth, Russian companies do a lot of business in other parts of Europe and what goes around comes around. Gas supplies to Ukraine are one thing, I wouldn't be too worried about other customers.

 

[Dennisch]

The salvage of the wreckage will start within a couple of days, if it is deemed safe enough.

Finally.

 

[Keef]

As an American who doesn't think his own government can be trusted, am I wrong in saying that I think neither Germany nor Russia can be trusted either? I can't escape viewing Russia as an American (and probably everyone else) would, and I'm not blind to the fact that Germany is the most powerful nation in Europe and still butts heads with the UK regularly. I find all this rather humorous.

 

[Dennisch]

As an American who doesn't think his own government can be trusted, am I wrong in saying that I think neither Germany nor Russia can be trusted either?

No, I think that that is pretty much spot on. The only trustworthy politician is a dead politician.

 

[TenEightyOne]

Is Tony Abbott going to "shirtfront" Putin?

No. No he isn't. In fact, when they finally met, Abbott only said that Russia really should ought to sort this kind of thing out while Putin said it wasn't Russia's fault.

Observers refused to confirm or deny that Putin rode his favourite tiger to the interview just in case.

 

[Grayfox]

No. No he isn't. In fact, when they finally met, Abbott only said that Russia really should ought to sort this kind of thing out while Putin said it wasn't Russia's fault.

Observers refused to confirm or deny that Putin rode his favourite tiger to the interview just in case.

Abbott is an idiot, but he is not that much of an idiot to mess with mother russia

You never mess with mothers

 

[prisonermonkeys]

No. No he isn't.

Queensland Premier Campbell Newman is feeling pretty game, saying he's willing to demand an apology from Putin on the tarmac of Brisbane airport when Putin arrives for the G20 summit later this week.

If Tony Abbott is the embarrassing uncle of Australian politics, Campbell Newman is the stupid step-brother.

 

[TenEightyOne]

Queensland Premier Campbell Newman is feeling pretty game, saying he's willing to demand an apology from Putin on the tarmac of Brisbane airport when Putin arrives for the G20 summit later this week.

He might want to have a quick check with his binoculars before piling in; Russian Warships Heading for Australia.

The Russians will meet "shirt-fronted" with "heavily-bombed".

 

[Touring Mars]

Russian Warships Heading for Australia.

I hope they have visas.

 

[Dotini]

"heavily-bombed".

I thought Aussies were already "heavily bombed" with their oversized cans of Fosters and all.

 

[prisonermonkeys]

He might want to have a quick check with his binoculars before piling in; Russian Warships Heading for Australia.

Newman isn't bright. Even by the standards of Queensland politicians; Queensland has the only unicamarel parliament in the country after their Senate voted themselves out if existence.

I thought Aussies were already "heavily bombed" with their oversized cans of Fosters and all.

You can't actually buy Fosters here.

 

[TenEightyOne]

You can't actually buy Fosters here.

I was thinking that... the Australians I know recognise Fosters for the insipid, shampooey naffery it is, I recalled them saying they didn't think it was "virry Orstriyleyun". Whatever that meant.

 

[prisonermonkeys]

Whatever that meant.

That you've mistaken a group of South Africans and New Zealanders for Australians?