MH370: Malaysian Airlines Flight to Beijing carrying 239 people is lost over sea.

[BobK]

Ah. I was unaware that claim had been made. Thanks for that correction.

 

[Famine]

Let's address landing it. All you need is 6000 feet of runway.

Only if you intend on taking off again. If you're not bothered about that you can do it in half that distance. If you're really not bothered about the hull, you can do it in half the distance and on makeshift dirt runways...

Unless the passengers were thrown overboard (and history well documents that humans have evolved to be capable of the utmost cruelty to their own species) a plane-load of passengers have to be landed, too. The plane itself is no truck to be parked and forgotten - as much as 200 people may be needed to service that plane immediately if it needs to be kept in a serviceable state.

And if it's not, none. If you're taking the plane because there's passengers on it you want and the plane itself is irrelevant, nothing need be done with it at all. It could even be broken up into pieces.

It also has to be hidden - especially from satellite view. (Pretty hard that; I think they caught me smoking the other day and reported to my wife. )

On the other hand, if it's landed at a strip at an established military airbase it could be shovelled into a hangar. And then broken up into pieces.

Providing food, lodging, sanitation and warmth (let alone forced containment) for over 200 people, as I mentioned before, is a logistical nightmare - even for seasoned kidnappers. To do it for two weeks would be nothing short of difficult and untenable in any plan involving stealing a plane.

If there was some kind of maximum security forced labour camp already there you'd have established means of keeping a large number of people imprisoned and barely-fed, in secret.

The percentages that the plane is still intact (at this point in time), landed, and people safe, drop much further than the percentages of plane in pieces, in the ocean or on a mountainside, and no survivors.

If you assume this was a state-sponsored kidnapping that happened to take the form of a hijacking you can cover all the bases really easily.

Operatives on board systematically disable the communications (though apparently they didn't know about the engines talking to Inmarsat) and take control of the plane. They fly it West down radar blind spots then North over sparsely populated and disputed areas with low technology and no radar coverage - like Myanmar, the Himalayan plateau regions of Bangladesh, Bhutan and Chinese Tibet - into the almost wholly unpopulated areas of Xinjiang, where there's a high Chinese military presence - should be plenty of strips good enough to take the plane - with very high secrecy and allegedly forced labour potash mines stretching across the region right up to Siberia. Not that the Chinese are averse to killing superfluous individuals either, but it'd be unusually short sighted of them in this case.

There'd need to be a good reason why it'd be a Chinese state-sponsored kidnapping - there'd have to be someone (or several someones) of high enough value on board to take the risk - but, if successful, no-one would ever see or hear from the plane or passengers ever again. And of course they could always have just blown the thing up to cover their tracks if they failed and blame it on a separatist group like the Chinese Martyrs Brigade.

But this explanation allows for the plane and passengers to be intact and covers all known existing information including the satellite pings and the engine run data.

And, to requote 24:

The China Queen container ship is moored at the port of San Diego. If you don't give us our statement, we will put you onboard, and you will arrive in eighteen days at the port of Hangzhou. Then, you will be transported 2,800 miles to the province of Xinjiang, where you will be remanded to the maximum-security labor camp on the border with Siberia... Your wife and your two daughters will not be notified. The U.S. government will not be notified. Therefore, there will be no chance for prisoner exchange. There will be positively no chance of escape... for the rest of your life.

Life imitating art.

Edit, for fun I drew this:

Flight time? That'll be 6 hours, 20 minutes...

 

[Dotini]

This clipping from Feb '13 Malaysian Chronicle proves Anwar Ibrahim was sympathetic to Chinese Uyghur Muslim separatists. http://www.malaysia-chronicle.com/i...umstances-unacceptable&Itemid=2#axzz2wbiyq4b5

Malaysia opposition leader Anwar Ibrahim was the political beacon for MH 370 pilot Captain Zaharie Ahmad Shah. So Shah would also be sympathetic to the Uyghur cause.

Anwar Ibrahim was sentenced to prison for sodomy 5 hours before MH 370 took off. Captain Shah attended the sentencing and was highly emotionally charged afterward. Shah's wife and children had left him the day before, so he was already in a rattled state of mind.

Perhaps he had a prepared plan of revenge against the Chinese and against his guru's political enemies ruling in Kuala Lumpur. He would take the plane to Pakistan where it would be held by Uyghurs in a secure hanger, while the hostages and the plane itself could be used as bargaining chips to secure the release of both Ibrahim and Uyghurs held in China.

http://airnation.net/2014/03/19/370-pakistan/

 

[LMSCorvetteGT2]

This clipping from Feb '13 Malaysian Chronicle proves Anwar Ibrahim was sympathetic to Chinese Uyghur Muslim separatists. http://www.malaysia-chronicle.com/i...umstances-unacceptable&Itemid=2#axzz2wbiyq4b5

Malaysia opposition leader Anwar Ibrahim was the political beacon for MH 370 pilot Captain Zaharie Ahmad Shah. So Shah would also be sympathetic to the Uyghur cause.

Anwar Ibrahim was sentenced to prison for sodomy 5 hours before MH 370 took off. Captain Shah attended the sentencing and was highly emotionally charged afterward. Shah's wife and children had left him the day before, so he was already in a rattled state of mind.

Perhaps he had a prepared plan of revenge against the Chinese and against his guru's political enemies ruling in Kuala Lumpur. He would take the plane to Pakistan where it would be held by Uyghurs in a secure hanger, while the hostages and the plane itself could be used as bargaining chips to secure the release of both Ibrahim and Uyghurs held in China.

http://airnation.net/2014/03/19/370-pakistan/

Yeah I saw some stuff on this, but I didn't think it was to the depth you've just described nor did I know about his wife. I claimed early on that pilot suicide wouldn't be surprising but obviously the waiting game continues.

 

[Dotini]

Yeah I saw some stuff on this, but I didn't think it was to the depth you've just described nor did I know about his wife. I claimed early on that pilot suicide wouldn't be surprising but obviously the waiting game continues.

Both Malaysia and China are closed, authoritarian governments. They hate each other and they both have internal political secrets to protect. This MH 370 KL-Beijing "thing" is their game, they think, and they will disclose only the bare minimum.

 

[Touring Mars]

Dumb question, and apologies if it's been answered already, but is it possible to prevent all communications from an aeroplane easily?

If the plane was diverted by the pilot as opposed to taken over by a group of passengers, then surely there would have been all sorts of electronic activity - internet, phone calls etc. - from the unsuspecting passengers. Since this is apparently not the case, then how would a pilot (or even a terrorist group) stop all communications from all passengers without resorting to a very elaborate and organised hijack attempt - for which there is no evidence of any people on board being associated with terrorism?

 

[Dotini]

Dumb question, and apologies if it's been answered already, but is it possible to prevent all communications from an aeroplane easily?

If the plane was diverted by the pilot as opposed to taken over by a group of passengers, then surely there would have been all sorts of electronic activity - internet, phone calls etc. - from the unsuspecting passengers. Since this is apparently not the case, then how would a pilot (or even a terrorist group) stop all communications from all passengers without resorting to a very elaborate and organised hijack attempt - for which there is no evidence of any people on board being associated with terrorism?

Communication by cell phone from a plane to ground is easy if the plane is flying low and slow over heavily populated areas with many cell towers.

Almost impossible if the plane is flying fast at altitude with no cell towers below.

 

[LMSCorvetteGT2]

Dumb question, and apologies if it's been answered already, but is it possible to prevent all communications from an aeroplane easily?

If the plane was diverted by the pilot as opposed to taken over by a group of passengers, then surely there would have been all sorts of electronic activity - internet, phone calls etc. - from the unsuspecting passengers. Since this is apparently not the case, then how would a pilot (or even a terrorist group) stop all communications from all passengers without resorting to a very elaborate and organised hijack attempt - for which there is no evidence of any people on board being associated with terrorism?

It's possible to jam the phones so they can't call, and really people wouldn't have known they were off course for the first few hours. Other than that they could have sadly killed all the passengers too so no calls could be answered.

 

[Famine]

If the plane was diverted by the pilot as opposed to taken over by a group of passengers, then surely there would have been all sorts of electronic activity - internet, phone calls etc. - from the unsuspecting passengers. Since this is apparently not the case, then how would a pilot (or even a terrorist group) stop all communications from all passengers

http://www.jammer4uk.com/high-power-handheld-cell-phone-3g-blocker-p-38.html

I imagine they're even cheaper if bought at source. That source being China.

 

[ExigeEvan]

Dumb question, and apologies if it's been answered already, but is it possible to prevent all communications from an aeroplane easily?

If the plane was diverted by the pilot as opposed to taken over by a group of passengers, then surely there would have been all sorts of electronic activity - internet, phone calls etc. - from the unsuspecting passengers. Since this is apparently not the case, then how would a pilot (or even a terrorist group) stop all communications from all passengers without resorting to a very elaborate and organised hijack attempt - for which there is no evidence of any people on board being associated with terrorism?

As well as Famine's jammers, don't forget that modern transmitters are extremely directional. Signal strength is not wasted on providing signal to planes at high altitude.

 

[TenEightyOne]

Ah. I was unaware that claim had been made. Thanks for that correction.

Not a very good one, in fairness.

It must be so hard for new terrorists to really break through nowadays, there's so much trolling and crap on the internet that their promise to enforce a strict 100-1 kill ratio... well, it's like they're not even trying. Must troll harder!

For landing distance, I think a pilot could dump fuel and get in to 2000m on good tarmac, nearer 3000m on loose or breaking tarmac. Landing on the rough is anyone's guess, you have no brakes but the wheels will dig in. Not advisable, but maybe do-able.

@Famine, that theory works for me - it's an extension of the 'amateur' hijacker theory but with an actual explanation of why we haven't heard anything. It makes you wonder if Freescale was a target?

To add to the prettiness of this page, here's a graph from Boeing that shows the landing distances for the 777, bear in mind that this presumes 'normal' runway. What Famine says about landing distance is mostly true, you can land in much less distance than you require to take off again. That's presuming that when you next take off you're carrying a normal load of passengers, baggage, cargo and fuel.

However, I dug out my 777 weights chart (I know, I know) and had a look at the empty takeoff weight. If you wanted to you could get that plane (maybe disguised, re-coded?) out of a 2,000 meter runway or less. Interesting!

Here's another theory, what if they messed with the engine software/power to try to kill its comms... and just killed the engines into some unbootable state? Unlikely, I should think, but just considering it.

 

[Famine]

The Asiana pilots managed to get one to a dead stop in 2,400ft.

And they weren't really trying. And managed better than 1% fatalities - and one of those was run over by a fire engine.

 

[TenEightyOne]

The Asiana pilots managed to get one to a dead stop in 2,400ft.

And they weren't really trying. And managed better than 1% fatalities - and one of those was run over by a fire engine.

Indeed they did. Not a textbook stop by any means.

Did you say 6 hours to Xinjiang? That's doable, and possibly then-some. They'll be doing about 650mph (non-wind-corrected) and can use the reserve. If the pilot was 'in' on the plan then we're presuming how much fuel was in anyway. His plane, his call for fuel on the tarmac, especially at your arirline's home airport. So far we've calculated the range based on what it should have had, not what it might have had. Hmmm.

 

[photonrider]

Stand by for more evidence.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/wor...l-54-minutes-of-communication-from-MH370.html

 

[TenEightyOne]

How did they get that? Unconfirmed by the Malaysians, hard to know if it's genuine.

I think I said somewhere around Page 5 that the best place to steal it was during the handover from one ATC to another, I see that confirmed by a Senior Pilot And Aviation Expert. Film rights etc.

It's hard to know what to make of the Telegraph, they get some good scoops in the UK but they're not averse to making up the currently-unprovable and then breezing swiftly on when the wheels come off.

 

[Famine]

Did you say 6 hours to Xinjiang?

Assuming a direct (well, Great Circle) route at 500mph, the flight time from Kuala Lumpur to Urumqi - on the Northern edge of Xinjiang and the Taklamakan desert - is just shy of 6 hours. It looks like the pratting about over Malaysia would have cost them about an hour's flight time - so it's just about 7 hours. I guess you can take off a bit if they were going significantly faster or higher and a bit more if you assume they landed at a military strip in Taklamakan well south of Urumqi.

 

[GTsail]

How hard is it to jump out of a Boeing 777 with a parachute?

Could one of the pilots have pulled a D.B. Cooper?

1) Put on your oxygen mask
2) Fly plane up to 45,000 feet to in-capacitate the passengers and crew
3) Grab valuables from wealthy passengers
4) Fly plane down to 8,000 feet and slow it down to 250mph
5) Punch a five-hour route into auto-pilot that flys the plane down into the southern Indian Ocean
6) Put on your parachute
7) Jump out of plane while over the Andaman Sea and parachute down to a co-conspirator who is waiting to pick you up in his speed-boat.
8) Spend ill-gotten gains at the Casino's in Macau

Just another scenario...
GTsail

 

[ildd]

I'm pretty sure the plane would rip up...

 

[Ridox2JZGTE]

Awfully wicked pilots, reminds me of Joker and his gang of thugs

 

[Grayfox]

How hard is it to jump out of a Boeing 777 with a parachute?

Could one of the pilots have pulled a D.B. Cooper?

1) Put on your oxygen mask
2) Fly plane up to 45,000 feet to in-capacitate the passengers and crew
3) Grab valuables from wealthy passengers
4) Fly plane down to 8,000 feet and slow it down to 250mph
5) Punch a five-hour route into auto-pilot that flys the plane down into the southern Indian Ocean
6) Put on your parachute
7) Jump out of plane while over the Andaman Sea and parachute down to a co-conspirator who is waiting to pick you up in his speed-boat.
8) Spend ill-gotten gains at the Casino's in Macau

Just another scenario...
GTsail

Impossible since the doors are pushed against the hull by the internal air pressure of the plane, so you won't be able to open them.

 

[TenEightyOne]

How hard is it to jump out of a Boeing 777 with a parachute?

Very. I should think you could go by blowing the lower rear cargo hatch though, that would allow you to avoid the tailplane. I don't think any of the passenger doors would be any good, and on the 777 iirc they open forward so might be tough to open at speed.

2) Fly plane up to 45,000 feet to in-capacitate the passengers and crew

I see what you're saying, but conditions inside the aircraft would barely differ at 45k from those at 35k. You could depressurise the cabin to have the kill-people effect, if that's what you're after?

Apart from that it kind of works

 

[BobK]

Unless, of course, you disable the cabin pressurization. Why not? You're at 8000 feet after all.

 

[TenEightyOne]

Unless, of course, you disable the cabin pressurization. Why not? You're at 8000 feet after all.

I think he meant climb to 45k out of 35k to 'kill the passengers'. You're right, it's much better* to just depressurise the cabin because the climb won't do the job. Then when you descend to 8000 you can go through their wallets.


*Better? What IS this place they call Internet?

 

[BobK]

I think he meant climb to 45k out of 35k to 'kill the passengers'. You're right, it's much better* to just depressurise the cabin because the climb won't do the job. Then when you descend to 8000 you can go through their wallets.

Okay, let me try it again, this time quoting the person I was replying to like I should have the first time.:

Impossible since the doors are pushed against the hull by the internal air pressure of the plane, so you won't be able to open them.

Unless, of course, you disable the cabin pressurization. Why not? You're at 8000 feet after all.

 

[Jay]

Impossible since the doors are pushed against the hull by the internal air pressure of the plane, so you won't be able to open them.

You can manually control the cabin pressurization and open the outflow valves to equalize pressure.




My main concern with jumping from the 777 would be clearing the horizontal stabilizer on the way out

 

[TenEightyOne]

My main concern with jumping from the 777 would be clearing the horizontal stabilizer on the way out

As I said, blow the lower cargo door out... that should give you a safe egress below the stabiliser. I'd forget leaving via the "normal" exits

To illustrate... the hatches are on the lower starboard side. The rearward one is about where the bottom of the red stripe is. If you were planning to parachute from the plane then this is the route you should take. Parp.

 

[Roger the Horse]

There's a problem with that, namely getting into the cargo hold.

In most modern airliners the cargo hold isn't connected to the cabin area, as far as I can remember.

 

[TenEightyOne]

In most modern airliners the cargo hold isn't connected to the cabin area, as far as I can remember.

Not by a 'normal' route but you could get there without too much difficulty. It's pressurised with the cabin (pressurising the cabin plugs the cargo doors in). If you cut through the floor you'd have to be careful not to inadvertently cut any electrics... but this isn't even my idea! I was just helping some dude get out of a plane

 

[Jay]

As I said, blow the lower cargo door out... that should give you a safe egress below the stabiliser. I'd forget leaving via the "normal" exits

To illustrate... the hatches are on the lower starboard side. The rearward one is about where the bottom of the red stripe is. If you were planning to parachute from the plane then this is the route you should take. Parp.

Yeah that would by far be the best way, though I wouldn't want to take to aircraft too slow into a serious AOA as it still could become close. Fuel dump until running on fumes would help a ton.

There's a problem with that, namely getting into the cargo hold.

In most modern airliners the cargo hold isn't connected to the cabin area, as far as I can remember.

I can't remember exactly but there is usually access hatches/panels that are not normally to be used except for maintenance or emergencies etc. No old school lift/elevator system or anything like that.

 

[eran0004]

I think he meant climb to 45k out of 35k to 'kill the passengers'. You're right, it's much better* to just depressurise the cabin because the climb won't do the job. Then when you descend to 8000 you can go through their wallets.


*Better? What IS this place they call Internet?

They'd end up with 200 credit cards and no PIN numbers. The cursing as he descended with parachute would have echoed around the world