MLB 2011 Preseason

[Ken]

Fear not, Yankee fans. No discounted Oli coming to ruin your bullpen!

THANK THE HEAVENS!!! That would have been a horrible choice!

EDIT: The Nationals put Strasburg on 60-day DL. Does this kid ever plan on pitching on the Majors?

 

[spiker]

THANK THE HEAVENS!!! That would have been a horrible choice!

EDIT: The Nationals put Strasburg on 60-day DL. Does this kid ever plan on pitching on the Majors?

Strasburg may miss most of, if not all of, 2011 because he had his surgery so late in 2010. Typical recovery from TJ surgery is a year.

http://content.usatoday.com/communi...to-have-tommy-john-surgery-miss-2011-season/1

 

[Ken]

If he is out of the remainder, then is he worth it? Two years, and twelve games pitched. $15.1 million over four years, and they get (maybe) two years out of him. I hope that the Expos, er............, the Nationals have better luck with the Sultan of Face Paint, Mr. Harper.

 

[spiker]

If he is out of the remainder, then is he worth it? Two years, and twelve games pitched. $15.1 million over four years, and they get (maybe) two years out of him. I hope that the Expos, er............, the Nationals have better luck with the Sultan of Face Paint, Mr. Harper.

Well, the thing Strasbug has going for him is his age. He's got plenty of time to recover so they're going to take it easy with him. It just sucks that he got hurt before he hit his inning limit last year. Honestly, the whole thing reminds me of Mark Prior. Here's a good article on that predicted Strasburg's "Inverted-W" would give him problems in his career. They even compare him to Prior.

(To read in chronological order, read from the bottom up. Starts in 2008!)

http://www.chrisoleary.com/projects...essionalpitcheranalyses/StephenStrasburg.html

Harper should be okay. He had a good spring training this year. His biggest problem will be adjusting to Major League pitching. By the looks of it, he's probably not going to have much of a problem with that. They've even shifted him to the OF to progress him along faster. If he dominates the minors, I bet we see him in the majors this season. We may even see him if he doesn't dominate the minors - the Nationals don't sell many tickets after all.

 

[Ken]

TJ surgery can end a career. It's true that the surgery will repair the tendons. But it's not always true, as Mark Prior can attest, as it can screw with one's delivery. A pitcher can and has come back from Tommy John's. But can he pitch any where near where he did. Ankiel had to move to an offensive position because he couldn't pitch the same. Just has me questioning, are we going to get the phenom, or another Manny Corpas. A promise with no return.

As far as Harper. I have great exceptions for the kid. He does seem to hitting well, (.389 with 5 RBI's in 18 at-bats.) I don't see any problems with his ankle sprain. I just hope that he comes through and takes the world by storm. I would hate to see another Nats prospect flounder out.

 

[spiker]

I really think Harper is the real deal. For as much crap as the guy gets, he actually plays the game the right way. It will be fun to watch him become a superstar.

Strasburg, on the other hand, will have to adjust his mechanics if he wants to continute pitching in MLB. Who knows what new mechanics and TJ surgery will do to his velocity but it can't be good.

 

[Ken]

I've been following Harper since early HS. I, too, really hope he is the real deal. He is a beast. It's the shot in the arm that baseball needs right now. (At least in my opinion.)

Strasburg isn't going to be the Strasburg that everybody wants. Which is really sad. Outside of Philadelphia and New York, there are no real pitching stars, IMO. I for one love seeing a star on both sides of the plate. Makes for a great and classic duel. I would love to see the Strasburg that everybody hoped he would be go against Pujols for spot in the wildcard. That makes exciting baseball. It's something that is getting further and further away from our baseball now. Now it's just a team out pitching another teams batters. Or two teams hitting the leather off the ball to see who survives. Think about it. Halladay pitched a gem of a perfect game. But against who? Uggla, Stanton, Ramirez? Good hitters, but nothing elite. Braden threw a gem against the Rays, a good team. But nothing special. I think that is good baseball, but not great. I want to see more Strasburg's coming up and out. Staying healthy, and pitching more gems against the best hitters out there. It's a shame that this kids career might be cut so short. But such is sports after all.

EDIT: Yes, I do consider Lincecum and F. Hernandez stars. But who else really?

 

[Prosthetic]

I've been following Harper since early HS. I, too, really hope he is the real deal. He is a beast. It's the shot in the arm that baseball needs right now. (At least in my opinion.)

Strasburg isn't going to be the Strasburg that everybody wants. Which is really sad. Outside of Philadelphia and New York, there are no real pitching stars, IMO. I for one love seeing a star on both sides of the plate. Makes for a great and classic duel. I would love to see the Strasburg that everybody hoped he would be go against Pujols for spot in the wildcard. That makes exciting baseball. It's something that is getting further and further away from our baseball now. Now it's just a team out pitching another teams batters. Or two teams hitting the leather off the ball to see who survives. Think about it. Halladay pitched a gem of a perfect game. But against who? Uggla, Stanton, Ramirez? Good hitters, but nothing elite. Braden threw a gem against the Rays, a good team. But nothing special. I think that is good baseball, but not great. I want to see more Strasburg's coming up and out. Staying healthy, and pitching more gems against the best hitters out there. It's a shame that this kids career might be cut so short. But such is sports after all.

EDIT: Yes, I do consider Lincecum and F. Hernandez stars. But who else really?

Who else? Josh Johnson, Clayton Kershaw, Matt Cain, Ubaldo Jiminez, Mat Latos, David Price want more? Maddy Bum has the making of a stud pitcher, impossible to break attitude, attacks the strikezone with nasty breaking pitches and a mid 90's fastball.

How is Ramirez not elite? Only one SS is better then him and that would be Tulo but beyond that its a HUGE drop off. No SS is close to their level of play. Uggla I would also say is at least a top notch offensive second basemen, and the most consistent one in baseball. And how were the Rays not special? They had a stud pitching staff and a lineup full of good hitters.

As for Strasburg, I remember Chris Lincecum (Tims dad) had a segment on KNBR our local sports radio talk show, and he discussed at the beginning of the year before he came up how Strasburg wouldn't last a full seasons worth of innings without injury.

 

[spiker]

When I think of "star" pitchers, I think of pitchers who are career 57-62 with a K:BB ratio just over 2.0. Other statistically similar pitchers to this pitcher I mentioned? It's oozing with comparable star power

1.Ed Halicki (959)
2.Tom Phoebus (957)
3.Tom Bradley (956)
4.Pascual Perez (955)
5.Jesse Duryea (953)
6.Wally Bunker (952)
7.Zack Greinke (950)
8.Jim Nash (948)
9.Gary Gentry (948)
10.Johnny Rigney (948)

 

[Prosthetic]

When I think of "star" pitchers, I think of pitchers who are career 57-62 with a K:BB ratio just over 2.0. Other statistically similar pitchers to this pitcher I mentioned? It's oozing with comparable star power

1.Ed Halicki (959)
2.Tom Phoebus (957)
3.Tom Bradley (956)
4.Pascual Perez (955)
5.Jesse Duryea (953)
6.Wally Bunker (952)
7.Zack Greinke (950)
8.Jim Nash (948)
9.Gary Gentry (948)
10.Johnny Rigney (948)

Hes 26 year old that played for terrible offenses for the first few years of his career. Win/Loss ratio is a terrible way of judging a pitcher. He gives you 200+ innings every year, ERA has always been good. WHIP is going down every year. 1.08 this year which VERY good. And a SO/BB ratio that is going UP every year. This guy started out at the age of 20 on terrible teams. Maybe you didn't see him in the playoffs murder the bats of the Braves, Phillies and Rangers.

Halicki only had one season of 200+. Cain is doing it every year except his first full in which he had 190 because he was limited. The guy has stud tattooed on his DNA strands.

 

[spiker]

Matt Cain is not a great pitcher. He is above average to good. Not great. He's just not. Please don't be that crazy homer guy.

 

[Prosthetic]

Wow, you backed it up with great evidence! I don't know why I should question your almighty authority. Excuse me, for my ignorance...

 

[spiker]

Do you know what Wins Above Replacement (WAR) is, young man?

Wins Above Replacement (WAR) is an attempt by the sabermetric community to summarize a player’s total contributions to their team in one statistic. You should always use more than one metric at a time when evaluating players, but WAR is pretty darn all-inclusive and provides a handy reference point. WAR basically looks at a player and asks the question, “If this player got injured and their team had to replace them with a minor leaguer or someone from their bench, how much value would the team be losing?” This value is expressed in a wins format, so we could say that Player X is worth 6.3 wins to their team while Player Y is only worth 3.5 wins.

http://www.fangraphs.com/library/index.php/misc/war/

Stat-heads like to use WAR when ranking players because it takes everything a player does and computes how many wins a player contributes to his club. It is an easy way to consider a players total value without hashing through and comparing 50 different statistical categories. It's calculated differently at Baseball Prospectus, Baseball Reference, and Fangraphs, but the results are similar.

His career WAR is 35th amongst active pitchers at Baseball Reference. There are 34 pitchers who are more valuable to a club's W-L record than he is. He is not amongst the most valuable pitchers in MLB.

The Top 10 players ranked by WAR:

1. Roy Halladay (33) 54.30 R
2. Mariano Rivera (40) 52.90 R
3. Andy Pettitte (38) 50.20 L
4. Jamie Moyer (47) 47.20 L
5. Johan Santana (31) 46.50 L
6. Tim Hudson (34) 46.30 R
7. Roy Oswalt (32) 44.60 R
8. Mark Buehrle (31) 42.90 L
9. CC Sabathia (29) 42.70 L
10. Javier Vazquez (34) 37.20 R

Obviously, Andy Pettitte needs to be removed but I hope my point isn't lost on that.

http://www.baseball-reference.com/leaders/WAR_pitch_active.shtml

After all of that, I have a feeling that will not suffice. Should I just start banging my head on the wall now?

 

[Prosthetic]

Do you know what Wins Above Replacement (WAR) is, young man?

Talking down to me isn't exactly the best way to go about it. Yes I do know what WAR is but you can't rely on one stat to judge a player. Which is where you are failing to understand. The fact that you are comparing CAREERS is comical. Cain is 26, TWENTY-SIX. WAR is increased with time played. A good player with 1,000 PA's will ALWAYS have a less career WAR then a player with 3,000 PA's. Cain is 26 and already a claims a 3ERA or less and 200+ innings. With other stats such as WHIP, SO/BB, ERA+ so on and so forth getting better every year.

I think you should take the advice that's in your own quote. "You should always use more than one metric at a time when evaluating players"
WAR isn't a end all be all metric. Its good but it favors older players. Because all those pitchers outside of Halladay, are not on the same level as Felix, Timmy, Johnson, Ubaldo and in a year or two Kershaw. WAR is a nice stat when comparing players with similar length playing careers.

I mean for christ sakes, Moyer.. MOYER is #4 on that list. Career 104 ERA+ 1.3 WHIP and 2.12 SO/BB which you call not good. Never once had below 3.0 ERA and never struck out over 158 batters.

 

[spiker]

Yes, I'm comparing careers. Is there something else I should be comparing? Those players that you are listing barely have had a career. You seem to be ranking players based on potential.

Who are your 10 best pitchers that have pitched for at least 5 full seasons?

Edit: Also I knew you'd pick out that one phrase in my quote. The remainder of that sentence reads:

but WAR is pretty darn all-inclusive and provides a handy reference point.

 

[Prosthetic]

Yes, I'm comparing careers. Is there something else I should be comparing? Those players that you are listing barely have had a career. You seem to be ranking players based on potential.

Who are your 10 best pitchers that have pitched for at least 5 full seasons?

Edit: Also I knew you'd pick out that one phrase in my quote. The remainder of that sentence reads:

Baseball isn't about whats happened in the past, its about what WILL happen. Can you honestly say you'd take all of those pitchers with the exception of Halladay and maybe CC over the ones I mentioned? I'm not talking about potential exactly, I'm talking about what will happen in 2011. Not 2012, 2013 or 2006. I'm not going to sit here for 30 minutes and and look at a handful of stats and make a list on who I think is the best with at least 5 years of experience. You don't need lots of experience to try and predict what a player can do in the up coming season.

But the fact is you are ignoring stats that show a player is trending towards becoming a star pitcher. For career stats which is laughable. What players did in the past (2+ years) is irrelevant to what will happen now. It may show that if they had a few bad years that they have the skill set to come back. Burrell and Huff were tremendous examples of that.

We aren't talking about CAREERS here.. we are talking about the present and what can happen. You can't honestly think that Oswalt is going to keep on pitching the way he did with Philly for years to come. And that Gordon Beckham of your beloved White Sox will hit .260 for the rest of his career.

You look at recent trends when judging a player on the PRESENT. This isn't a vote into the HoF this is what will this player be when this season is all said in done.

 

[spiker]

What is your basis for determining what a player will do in the future, or the 2011 season if you prefer?

 

[Prosthetic]

What is your basis for determining what a player will do in the future, or the 2011 season if you prefer?

You look at their trends.. I've said this multiple times. Look at some of the stats from players new old and in the middle. You look at all sorts of stats %, counting it doesn't matter. Some people like certain things more then others. With pitchers you may start to see less strikeouts but less walks and more innings pitched. Young pitchers you will often see high SO and high BB marks. For a few years it will keep going up (both of them) and then their will be his peak where his SO will still be up but his walks will go down because hes learned his movement better. Then as his arm declines his velocity goes down, less K's so he has to learn to change. He will start walking less batters and giving up more hits. This is where most fall off and the best then learn how to hit their spots and keeping a similar ERA for many more years.

Mechanics/injuries are another thing but I'm not very good at predicting those because I have no medical background.

You will obviously have some freak pitchers like Randy Johnson who will still throw low-mid 90's into their late 30's and even 40's and continue to hit their spots while still being able to elevate and blow it by a hitter. Obviously a Randy Johnson doesn't come around too often.

Cliff Lee and Greg Maddox are different stories, never really a wizard of the K but a wizard on keeping the hitter off balance and having the ability to throw any pitch in any count.

That is why I think pitchers like Cain will could potentially be good for an extended amount of time. Cain has a perfect pitchers body and simple mechanics that cause little stress on his solid frame. As of 2009 he has gotten better at being able to throw his curve and change up for strikes thus seeing a drop in ERA. Hes not throwing 98-99 at the letters anymore but he can still throw 95-96 while hitting his target if his other pitches aren't working as well. Much like Oswalt. Timmy, Sanchez, Kershaw to name a few have a problem of too much movement. They have nasty stuff so lots of K's and low H/9 but more walks. And in Sanchez case last year had dead arm in September/October thus being inconsistent.

Cain can easily just fall off and not be anything special but he is headed towards having a very good career. He and Bumgarner are the ones I want the Giants to really keep because he both have the body of work horses and have the mentality of a 20 year old vet.

 

[Ken]

Who else? Josh Johnson, Clayton Kershaw, Matt Cain, Ubaldo Jiminez, Mat Latos, David Price want more? Maddy Bum has the making of a stud pitcher, impossible to break attitude, attacks the strikezone with nasty breaking pitches and a mid 90's fastball.

How is Ramirez not elite? Only one SS is better then him and that would be Tulo but beyond that its a HUGE drop off. No SS is close to their level of play. Uggla I would also say is at least a top notch offensive second basemen, and the most consistent one in baseball. And how were the Rays not special? They had a stud pitching staff and a lineup full of good hitters.

As for Strasburg, I remember Chris Lincecum (Tims dad) had a segment on KNBR our local sports radio talk show, and he discussed at the beginning of the year before he came up how Strasburg wouldn't last a full seasons worth of innings without injury.

All of those guys are good pitchers in my opinion. Johnson has had two good years, but nothing great. The potential is there. But I don't want to jump on a band wagon just yet. I have seen plenty of pitchers have two good years, never to heard of again. That's why he's not a star, YET.

Kershaw, well 13-10 isn't the best. Yes, his era was just under 3.00. Giving up 13 hrs and 66 er's isn't the top of the pot.

Matt Cain, again is good. But his 13-11 isn't fantastic. He's got good stuff, but nothing intimidating, IMO. Good 2 or 3 pitcher. But no number #1.

Jimenez? I'm from Colorado. I went to the first Rockies night game. I have to over 200 games in the last five years alone. What did he do before last year. Not a whole lot. A couple barely winning seasons, a highess ERA, and allot hits when the Rocks needed a out. One year isn't going to turn me into a drooling fan boy. Really the same thing with Price and Greinke.

Latos, potentially a great pitcher. But he isn't yet. Period.


I agree that Ramirez and Tulo are the best. It's a huge drop off after that, right. I agree. Does that make them great? No. Ramirez can swing a bat. Two sliver sluggers, a ROY. GREAT BAT!!! But you don't get a great fielder. A great shortstop to me is fielding and hitting. I feel that about any position, except the pitcher. Which brings me to Tulowitzki. I stand corrected about his eliteness. A ROY, sliver slugger, and a gold glove. Also, he only seems to getting better.

The Rays aren't great. They have a great manager! Maddon is a baseball god! Evan Longoria is a rising star, yes. Pena, another great year, and not much after that. Plus, he's a Cubbie now. Upton, lots and lots of potential, but no drive. Zorbrist produces under Maddon, but hasn't in the past. Price can be elite, but isn't there yet. But past that, Maddon makes even the mediocre good. I worship at the altar of Maddon, but not the Rays.

Just to say, I don't think they aren't elite players and pitchers out there. But they are more players than pitchers. I just want to see more players and pitchers live up to the hype. Create better match-ups and better baseball. I have hopes for everybody I mentioned, plus many more. Choo, Montero, Harper, Chris Young, the Uptons, David Frees, Stanton, Heyward, Posey, Matusz, and many, many others.

EDIT: The way things are going in here, I just want to say that I am merely debating. I don't want to talk "down" to anybody. I am just putting my two cents worth, and waiting for a rebuttal. Good ole fashioned baseball talk. Not Yankees and Red Sox baseball talk.

EDIT2:

You look at their trends.. I've said this multiple times. Look at some of the stats from players new old and in the middle. You look at all sorts of stats %, counting it doesn't matter. Some people like certain things more then others. With pitchers you may start to see less strikeouts but less walks and more innings pitched. Young pitchers you will often see high SO and high BB marks. For a few years it will keep going up (both of them) and then their will be his peak where his SO will still be up but his walks will go down because hes learned his movement better. Then as his arm declines his velocity goes down, less K's so he has to learn to change. He will start walking less batters and giving up more hits. This is where most fall off and the best then learn how to hit their spots and keeping a similar ERA for many more years.

Mechanics/injuries are another thing but I'm not very good at predicting those because I have no medical background.

You will obviously have some freak pitchers like Randy Johnson who will still throw low-mid 90's into their late 30's and even 40's and continue to hit their spots while still being able to elevate and blow it by a hitter. Obviously a Randy Johnson doesn't come around too often.

Cliff Lee and Greg Maddox are different stories, never really a wizard of the K but a wizard on keeping the hitter off balance and having the ability to throw any pitch in any count.

That is why I think pitchers like Cain will could potentially be good for an extended amount of time. Cain has a perfect pitchers body and simple mechanics that cause little stress on his solid frame. As of 2009 he has gotten better at being able to throw his curve and change up for strikes thus seeing a drop in ERA. Hes not throwing 98-99 at the letters anymore but he can still throw 95-96 while hitting his target if his other pitches aren't working as well. Much like Oswalt. Timmy, Sanchez, Kershaw to name a few have a problem of too much movement. They have nasty stuff so lots of K's and low H/9 but more walks. And in Sanchez case last year had dead arm in September/October thus being inconsistent.

Cain can easily just fall off and not be anything special but he is headed towards having a very good career. He and Bumgarner are the ones I want the Giants to really keep because he both have the body of work horses and have the mentality of a 20 year old vet.

I have to agree with 100% agree with everything mentioned. 👍

 

[Villain]

Oi... You can't point to cumulative WAR and W-L... I'm dumbfounded. You realize that you can't generate run support from the mound, right?

The Top 10 players ranked by WAR:

1. Roy Halladay (33) 54.30 R
2. Mariano Rivera (40) 52.90 R
3. Andy Pettitte (38) 50.20 L
4. Jamie Moyer (47) 47.20 L
5. Johan Santana (31) 46.50 L
6. Tim Hudson (34) 46.30 R
7. Roy Oswalt (32) 44.60 R
8. Mark Buehrle (31) 42.90 L
9. CC Sabathia (29) 42.70 L
10. Javier Vazquez (34) 37.20 R

Don't you think that something is fishy when you've got those two on your list? Andy Pettitte is retired and Mariano Rivera isn't even a starting pitcher. Cumulative WAR is like saying that a player is the best because they have more career home runs. Following that logic, if we put Hank Aaron back into the game tomorrow he'd be the best player.

Outside of Philadelphia and New York, there are no real pitching stars, IMO.

I... I just don't know what to say. Wow.

 

[Ken]

I... I just don't know what to say. Wow.

I corrected myself and added Lincecum and F. Hernandez. I think that there is allot of potential in the league. Allot of kids that need to prove themselves before I jump on the bandwagon. But it's just one (mad) man's opinion. That's all.

Also, I didn't even consider the bull-pen. If I did, then Rivera (DUH), Wilson, and Papelbon are great pitchers as well. I don't know why I discounted talking about the bullpens. Not WINNING!!! on my part!

Remember, I still think that the Cardinals are making the play-offs!

 

[Villain]

Prosthetic pretty much explained all that there needs to be said but I'm still in shock after reading all of this.

Kershaw, well 13-10 isn't the best. Yes, his era was just under 3.00. Giving up 13 hrs and 66 er's isn't the top of the pot.

You do realize that he's only been 23 since last week, right? As a 22-year-old last season: 2.91 ERA, 33IP more than in 09 with 10 less walks. That you would point to his W-L record as a reason to disqualify him is just ridiculous.

Just... Wow. Have you seen Ubaldo Jiminez pitch? David Price? Don't you realize that these guys are all just barely starting to mature?

 

[Ken]

Prosthetic pretty much explained all that there needs to be said but I'm still in shock after reading all of this.



You do realize that he's only been 23 since last week, right? As a 22-year-old last season: 2.91 ERA, 33IP more than in 09 with 10 less walks. That you would point to his W-L record as a reason to disqualify him is just ridiculous.

Just... Wow. Have you seen Ubaldo Jiminez pitch? David Price? Don't you realize that these guys are all just barely starting to mature?

Koios

Jimenez? I'm from Colorado. I went to the first Rockies night game. I have been to over 200 games in the last five years alone. What did he do before last year. Not a whole lot. A couple barely winning seasons, a highess ERA, and allot hits when the Rocks needed a out. One year isn't going to turn me into a drooling fan boy. Really the same thing with Price and Greinke.

Never seen Jimenez pitch, no.


I am not discrediting these guys. I am not counting them out, just saying they aren't there yet!!! That's all. I hope to see Kershaw, Jimenez, Price, Johnson become great. I just can't say "Oh, you had one/two good year(s). Your the best in the game." Show me consistent outings over three years, I will show you a fan. I am just hard to impress, I suppose.

 

[spiker]

Oi... You can't point to cumulative WAR and W-L... I'm dumbfounded. You realize that you can't generate run support from the mound, right?

Don't you think that something is fishy when you've got those two on your list? Andy Pettitte is retired and Mariano Rivera isn't even a starting pitcher. Cumulative WAR is like saying that a player is the best because they have more career home runs. Following that logic, if we put Hank Aaron back into the game tomorrow he'd be the best player.

I... I just don't know what to say. Wow.

Well, I'm making a case for who are the best active pitchers. Cumulative WAR takes into account a player's whole career. If they had bad years, it's accounted for in cumulative WAR.

Now obviously, if I'm a GM, Jamie Moyer is not #4 on my list of guys to sign right now, mainly because of his age. But if you're looking to fill a gap with a 4th or 5th starter, Jamie Moyer has proved over the years that he can still get it done. He's had a great career. You don't pitch for 20 years if you are a bad pitcher.

And poor Javier Vasquez never gets any love. He's one of the best strikeout pitchers in the history of MLB. He just doesn't compile the gaudy W-L stats and he's always been overshadowed on by other aces on his staff. At 34, he's still a good pitcher.

Other than comparing WAR, what would you like to compare? We could analyze 50 different stats, you'll win some, I'll win some, but in the end, we're just pissing in the wind. WAR is good to rank players because it accounts for damn near everything in one number. Further, cumulative WAR accounts for a career's worth of performance - not just one or two good seasons. Or last season.

Yes, longevity overrates Jamie Moyer. So what? It doesn't mean that he's still not a solid pitcher. He's been doing it for 20 years, doing it well, and his arm hasn't fallen off yet. I could think of worse pitchers you could have.

 

[Villain]

Please put Jamie Moyer on your pitching staff and watch the losses pile up. He's a fossil! His fastball is like 79mph.

 

[spiker]

Please put Jamie Moyer on your pitching staff and watch the losses pile up. He's a fossil! His fastball is like 79mph.

At this point, I'd rather see Jamie Moyer as the 5th starter for the White Sox instead of Phil Humber. Phil Humber could be terrible. At least we know Jamie Moyer is serviceable.

 

[spiker]

Alright, this thread needs to lighten up a bit. MLB Trade Rumors posted this a few weeks ago.

Highest Paid Players of the Last Three Decades

It's no secret that baseball player salaries have exploded over the last two decades, but just how much? With some help from the USA Today Salary Database, let's look at the game's highest paid players from last season, ten seasons ago, and twenty seasons ago...

2010

1.Alex Rodriguez- $32MM
2.CC Sabathia - $23MM
3.Derek Jeter - $22.6MM
4.Mark Teixeira - $20.625MM
5.Johan Santana - $20.145MM
6.Miguel Cabrera - $20MM
7.Carlos Beltran - $19.402MM
8.Ryan Howard, Carlos Lee & Alfonso Soriano - $19MM
9.Carlos Zambrano - $18.875MM
10.John Lackey - $18.7MM
Four Yankees occupy the top spots, and six New York players are in the top seven. Ichiro Suzuki, Barry Zito, Torii Hunter, and Manny Ramirez were the only other players to pull down more than $18MM last season.

2000

1.Kevin Brown - $15.714MM
2.Randy Johnson - $13.6MM
3.Albert Belle - $13MM
4.Bernie Williams - $12.357MM
5.Larry Walker - $12.143MM
6.Mike Piazza - $12.071MM
7.David Cone - $12MM
8.Pedro Martinez - $11.5MM
9.Mo Vaughn - $11.167MM
10.Sammy Sosa - $11MM
Barry Bonds, Greg Maddux, Raul Mondesi, and Jeter make up the rest of the eight-figure club.

1990

1.Robin Yount - $3.2MM
2.Kirby Puckett - $2.817MM
3.Roger Clemens & Paul Molitor - $2.6MM
4.Eddie Murray - $2.514MM
5.Don Mattingly - $2.5MM
6.Will Clark & Rickey Henderson - $2.25MM
7.Tom Browning, Mark Davis & Teddy Higuera - $2.125MM
8.Eric Davis, Andre Dawson, Kent Hrbek & Jack Morris - $2.1MM
9.Pedro Guerrero & Kevin Mitchell - $2.083MM
10.Mark Gubicza - $2.066MM
Tim Raines wasn't far off the list at $2.055MM, and at least six other players earned no less than $2MM that season.

The top ten salaries in the game have nearly doubled over the last ten years, and they've increased ten-fold over the last 20 years. Albert Pujols could very well land the first contract with a $30MM average annual value next winter; how long will it be before we see a $40MM a year player, maybe ten years? Based on the recent inflation, it could be sooner.

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2011/03/highest-paid-players-of-the-last-three-decades.html

It's insane when you look at how fast salaries for MLB players have increased over the past 20 years. Like the article suggests, I don't think it's too crazy to think that we will see a $40mil player this decade. As long as there isn't a hard cap on baseball, I can see teams spending themselves into a state where making money doesn't even matter to the big teams anymore, just like some of the big European soccer teams.

Do you think we'll see a $40mil player this next decade? Who could you see commanding that salary? Jason Heyward? Bryce Harper? David Price? I would think that $40mil player would have to be playing either in the minors or majors right now and be really young. Heyward and Price will be just over 30 by 2020. Harper won't even be 30 by then. The youngest the $40mil player could be is about 15 or 16 today if you figure they'll get that big FA contract by the time they are 24 or 25. They'd also have to be able to deliver on that phenom hype pretty quickly.

 

[Villain]

I hope we don't. It has to top out somewhere.

 

[Prosthetic]

Considering the people that pay them have billions of dollars and are making hundreds of millions every year. I honestly don't care if a player is payed a **** ton or not. Considering how much money they make for the owners they deserve it.

What I hate are teams like Pittsburgh who have ruined a storied franchised into the ground by not spending money. Its so bad they couldn't sign players now.. they have to pull a Tampa Bay/Florida Marlins. Funny how both those teams are in Florida... Anyways Pujols would easily make any team 30 million in one year, he earns that money. He has the image of a good easy to like ball player that just so happens to be one of the greatest right handed hitters in the history of the game. 30/6-7 years I think would be a fine contract. 10 years is pushing it but 6-7 he could easily be a high caliber player during that time span.

 

[spiker]

Here's an interview with the author of a new book about baseball economics intertwined with the story of the Rays recent success. It sounds like it's in the same vein as "Moneyball" but I'll probably pick it up when it goes to paperback.

Defying the Economics of Baseball
By DAVID LEONHARDT

Jonah Keri is a former stock-market columnist for Investor’s Business Daily and now a writer for The Wall Street Journal and FanGraphs. He’s the author of a new book, “The Extra 2%: How Wall Street Strategies Took a Major League Baseball Team From Worst to First,” about the Tampa Bay Rays.

In 2005, a group of investment bankers with little baseball experience took over the Rays and have since turned the team into one of the sport’s best. (For more on the Rays and their owners, you can read Landon Thomas’s 2006 article from The Times.)

My conversation with Mr. Keri follows.

Q. A decade ago, Major League Baseball was still pretty hostile to basic economic thinking, like the idea that teams should use data to find undervalued players. But the success of the low-budget Oakland A’s and Michael Lewis’s best-selling book about them, “Moneyball,” helped change that. Today, some of the biggest-spending teams, like the Yankees and Red Sox, are infused with analytical thinking.

So how did the Rays (with a 2010 payroll of about $72 million) finish ahead of the Yankees (2010 payroll: $206 million) and Red Sox (2010 payroll: $162 million) in two of the last three seasons? What is their edge — the “extra 2 percent” in your title?

Mr. Keri: The Rays look for that extra 2 percent absolutely everywhere. There are all the basic baseball ideas, of course. They dream up ways to build an optimal lineup and they put relief pitchers in position to succeed against certain types of hitters, just like every other team does. But in the Rays’ case, they go much deeper. The manager, Joe Maddon, is more open-minded and intellectually curious than any other manager in baseball. He regularly meets with the “quant guys” in the organization, and is willing to make substantive, enduring changes based on their input.

One great example is something called the Danks Theory. It’s named after a left-handed pitcher named John Danks, a change-up specialist who’s often tougher against right-handed hitters than left-handers, which is unusual in baseball. Erik Neander, the team’s co-head of R.&D. (the fact that the Rays even have an R.&D. division, as if they’re Google or Apple, says a lot), met with Maddon and suggested that the Rays start same-handed hitters against pitchers like Danks. And it worked. Maybe strategies like these amount to two or three wins a season. But when you’re competing against the two biggest, baddest, richest teams in the sport in the Yankees and Red Sox, every little edge counts.

It’s really much more than an on-field idea, though. For instance, the Rays hold more postgame concerts than any other team in baseball. There are some fairly significant costs to staging a concert, but they’ve crunched the numbers and found that the attendance boost makes it well worth the added cost, and hassle. The Rays also offer free parking for carpools of a certain size; that has the double effect of enticing extra fans to the park and making sure the roads and parking lots around the stadium aren’t painfully crowded.

People have asked me, “What do the Rays do that absolutely no one else does?” It’s tough to pinpoint one thing. But it’s that collection of 2 percent edges that adds up to a lot — in this case, two AL East titles in the past three years, and a ball club whose franchise value has skyrocketed in the five-and-a-half years since Stuart Sternberg and his partners took over.

Q. You explain in the book that the Rays were one of the first teams to take seriously all the new measures of fielding ability. Traditionally, fielding skill had been extremely hard to measure well. But the new metrics seem to do a pretty good job, and the Rays used them to help them build a great defensive team in 2008.

Can you think of any similar situations in the stock market or finance generally or the economy? That is, are there forces we know are hugely important even if we don’t yet know — or are still learning — how to measure them?

Mr. Keri: The thing about the Rays, or any baseball team worth its salt, is that they’re two steps ahead of whatever new measures people are discussing in public — even ahead of some of the best think tanks like FanGraphs or Baseball Prospectus. A financial world comparison would be how the stock market responds to economic conditions well before those conditions are obvious to the masses. The Dow hit bottom in early 2009, then started this huge uptrend that’s still going strong today. At the time the market hit bottom, everything looked terrible. Unemployment was rising, the housing market looked awful, and of course we were just coming off a Wall Street meltdown that, were it not for government intervention, might have torpedoed the entire world economy. But the market sees things that you and I can’t.

Q. Should Tampa even have a baseball team? Yes, the Tampa/St. Petersburg/Clearwater metropolitan area has the 23rd biggest economy in the country, according to the Commerce Department. But some metropolitan areas without teams, like Portland, Ore., and San Jose/Sunnyvale/Santa Clara, Calif., have larger economies. And the Rays have not drawn well — 22nd out of 30 home teams in attendance last year, despite being so good.

Mr. Keri: There are many reasons not to move the Rays out of St. Petersburg. For one, the team has seen marked improvement in attendance over the past three seasons, as compared to the franchise’s down years. For another, there may be reason to believe attendance will continue to improve in the ensuing seasons, as casual fans finally come around to the idea that the team doesn’t stink anymore, and more importantly, as local unemployment retreats from 12 percent, which ranks among the highest in the nation.

If you want to specifically discuss the ones you mention: San Jose might get the Oakland A’s soon anyway, at least as soon as Major League Baseball relaxes its asinine territorial rules (which give the San Francisco Giants the right to veto an A’s move to San Jose). Portland has been down this road several times with no success, and it just lost its Triple-A team. It’s tough to see Portland suddenly turning around and packing a big league ballpark.

Q. What are the lessons from the Rays’ success for other small-market teams? If you were a fan of the Pittsburgh Pirates or Kansas City Royals — perhaps the two worst teams in recent years — how would you want your team to find its own edge over those with more resources?

Mr. Keri: The Pirates and Royals are actually on the right track; you just have to squint a bit to see it. The major publications unanimously voted the Royals’ farm systems to be the league’s best this year. The Pirates, meanwhile, own a strong core of young hitters already on the major league roster, with a pair of front-line pitchers drafted out of high school with the potential to help down the road. So yes, basic, meat-and-potatoes scouting and player development should play a pivotal role in both teams’ potential revival.

Beyond that, both the Pirates and Royals need to keep their eyes open for opportunities to gain those 2 percent advantages. The core of the Rays’ roster right now isn’t just David Price, Evan Longoria and other high draft picks turned homegrown stars. It’s Ben Zobrist and Dan Johnson and Joel Peralta and yes, even Manny Ramirez — players acquired for substantially less than market value, at just the right time. Even the best farm system in the game won’t be enough to make the Royals a World Series team; they’ll need to aggressively seek out those other opportunities.

There is one other ray of hope (so to speak) for Pirates and Royals fans, though. They don’t play in the American League East, where the Yankees and Red Sox will continue to be nightmares every year, the Toronto Blue Jays are underrated and even the Baltimore Orioles are pointed in the right direction. It might be time for Major League Baseball to abolish the divisions all together and create balanced schedules across the board. On the other hand, by leaving the divisions intact, it would be that much sweeter if the underdog Rays toppled their loaded opponents and shocked the world yet again.

http://economix.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/03/14/defying-the-economics-of-baseball/