Fixed.
Stewart and both Gordons are always favorites, they're the only Cup regulars that can outpace the ringers. Kyle Busch got lucky last year IMO with good strategy and some cautions sprinkled in to move him up through the field.
I think somebody you should watch out for tomorrow is AJ Allmendinger he didn't qualify that well but he's been pretty quick in all the practices this weekend.
Kyle Busch swept both Cup road course races last year, including pulling away from Montoya at Infineon to the tune of 5 seconds
He also beat Marcos Ambrose head to head in Mexico 2008
He definitly has these road course races figured out.
I watched the entire cup qualifying session. They have a tracker where you can see how far ahead or behind a driver is throughout his entire lap
Kyle Busch was up .4 after the first few turns on Ambrose's lap and by turn 11 he was up .7 but gave away .3 in turn 11. That's why I think he will be strong.
Jeff Gordon was almost as good as Busch but got very conservative and slowly gave away alot of time. Stewart through it all away in turn 11 IIRC
Ambrose was a demon through turn 11 though, he was .2 faster then anyone through that corner, which leads me to believe he will have little trouble passing cars
Ambrose is going to have his work cut out for him starting 43rd. That hurts his chances of winning.
In 2007 Juan Montoya started 35th or something and won, but he was greatly aided by cars running out of fuel and having to pit. That's why I think Ambrose is pretty much out of it. There is only one passing turn at this track unlike Watkins Glen, so even though Ambrose started deep in the field at watkins glen last yea rand finished 4th sonoma is a whole different story. Watkins glen has 2 or even 3 great passing zones compared to sonoma's 1.
That leaves Jeff Gordon, Tony Stewart, Kyle Busch, and Juan Montoya
From watching qualifying and from past experience I put the driver most likely to win in this order:
1. Kyle Busch
2. Tony Stewart
3. Juan Montoya
4. Jeff Gordon
5. Marcos Ambrose
EDIT: One more thing, in practice Marcos Ambrose bumped Jimmy Johnson in turn 11, so Johnson brake checked him, destroying Johnson's rear bumper and damaging Abrose's splitter and who knows what else.