New Petrol & Diesel Cars Banned In The UK From 2040, Now 2030

[Robin]

How will this affect people who drive over to the UK? Like if you take your car from continental Europe or Ireland, if they don't also have similar bans in place by the time this happens what then? Are they exempt?

 

[05XR8]

The movie "Logan", had an interesting scene showing the future of semi transporting. How heavy are the truck drivers of the world, going to be taxed on their diesel rigs? How much cheaper would an electric semi be over a diesel rig?

Just to be clear , the issues on diesel and petrol cars in the U.K. does not mean that all petrol and diesel cars will be banned , just that any car invented or coming out soon at the time has to be electric. If someone designed a new Pagani , and it was petrol, It would be illegal. However , driving a Zonda ( diesel / petrol ) in 2040 would be fine.

So any premium car coming out at the time has to be electric.

In other words, all our favourite cars will be fine, just if Nissan want another generation of the GTR in 2040, it's gonna have to be electric. Diesels and petrols can still be imported and driven and bought second hand etc.

At what cost though? How much will petrol & diesel be in 2040? Enough to just drive the car on weekends? Where and when? Sure, Shell electric service stations can have one or two petrol and diesel pumps, but at $10-$20/litre(lets say, extremes) no matter adjustments for inflation, will it be worth it to drive your "flipping-the-bird-to-the-establishment" 2017 Ford Mustang GT through the week? Like I mentioned, fossil fuel companies, are NOT in the business of losing money.

 

[ApexDrift123]

The movie "Logan", had an interesting scene showing the future of semi transporting. How heavy are the truck drivers of the world, going to be taxed on their diesel rigs? How much cheaper would an electric semi be over a diesel rig?


At what cost though? How much will petrol & diesel be in 2040? Enough to just drive the car on weekends? Where and when? Sure, Shell electric service stations can have one or two petrol and diesel pumps, but at $10-$20/litre(lets say, extremes) no matter adjustments for inflation, will it be worth it to drive your "flipping-the-bird-to-the-establishment" 2017 Ford Mustang GT through the week? Like I mentioned, fossil fuel companies, are NOT in the business of losing money.

Yeah , true , prices of fuel and diesel will go through the roof.

 

[homeforsummer]

I think you're talking about this article (language warning: link), the vast majority of lithium isn't mined anyway.

Indeed - was going to mention that but decided not to over-complicate my post.

Thanks for posting that link though - handy for future reference!

 

[Famine]

How will this affect people who drive over to the UK? Like if you take your car from continental Europe or Ireland, if they don't also have similar bans in place by the time this happens what then? Are they exempt?

It's not a ban on the cars, it's a ban on selling new ones:

Sale of New Petrol & Diesel Cars Will Be Banned In The UK From 2040

 

[ToyGTone]

The UK and other countries are already planning ahead of going full Electric cars. Meanwhile Hybrids and Electric cars over here are the modern equivalent of GM EV1's.

 

[Robin]

It's not a ban on the cars, it's a ban on selling new ones:

Yes I know that, I wrote the thread! What I mean is,

It's 2041, some Irish guy buys a NEW petrol car because Ireland has no ban, wants to stick it on a ferry and come here.... what happens?

 

[Famine]

Yes I know that, what I mean is,

It's 2041, some Irish guy buys a NEW petrol car because Ireland has no ban, wants to stick it on a ferry and come here.... what happens?

He puts it on the ferry and drives it.

It's not a ban on the cars. It's a ban on selling new ones. He can bring his brand new 2041 petrol car to the UK and drive it around for as long as he can find the fuel. He can't come over here and buy a new 2041 petrol car, because no-one can sell him one.

Just for fun, he could then sell it here as a used car, because it's not a new one.

 

[Robin]

He puts it on the ferry and drives it.

It's not a ban on the cars. It's a ban on selling new ones. He can bring his brand new 2041 petrol car to the UK and drive it around for as long as he can find the fuel. He can't come over here and buy a new 2041 petrol car, because no-one can sell him one.

Just for fun, he could then sell it here as a used car, because it's not a new one.

If people can come in with new petrol/diesel cars then what's the point of this from a pollution standpoint? France is going to have it even worse because they will have a ban yet border many European countries that may not, because of the free movement of people thousands of cars will cross borders each day and you wont be reducing the number of petrol/diesel cars if they are being topped up by foreign drivers!

 

[05XR8]

I guess to add, will those foreign cars be taxed like the local drivers? That's if that diesel tax is still active.

 

[Joey D]

If people can come in with new petrol/diesel cars then what's the point of this from a pollution standpoint? France is going to have it even worse because they will have a ban yet border many European countries that may not, because of the free movement of people thousands of cars will cross borders each day and you wont be reducing the number of petrol/diesel cars if they are being topped up by foreign drivers!

It will still be significantly less. The amount of tourist compared to those who actually live in the UK is probably pretty far apart. Plus I assume like America, most tourist arrive by airplane (or train, but we don't have those in the US) instead of by car.

=

Also with regards to buying a car in one country and then coming to the UK, isn't it a pain to do? Here in the US even moving a car to another state is a bit of a hassle. When I moved from Michigan to Utah I had to get my truck safety and emissions inspected, then I had to get the VIN verified, and finally I had to pay a bunch of money in taxes on top of the new plate fee. I know some states (like California) won't even register cars that are not up to their standards.

 

[Famine]

If people can come in with new petrol/diesel cars then what's the point of this from a pollution standpoint?

There's 30 million private cars in the UK. They drive 240 billion miles annually. Currently 99.6% of them are petrol or diesel alone. At an average of 130g/km CO2 and 0.3g/km NOx, that's 50 million tonnes of CO2 and nearly 120,000 tonnes of NOx.

3 million private cars visit the UK annually. They drive 3 billion miles annually. With the same averages as above, that's 625,000 tonnes of CO2 and 1,500 tonnes of NOx.


If every new car sold in the UK was electric or hybrid, and every car visiting was still diesel or petrol, the annual CO2 and NOx emissions would fall to 1.25% of their current value.

you wont be reducing the number of petrol/diesel cars if they are being topped up by foreign drivers!

The average age of a car in the UK is 7.7 years. The vehicle parc will be almost entirely electrified by 2048, and the tiny amount of foreign imports won't affect that - there are fewer parallel imports in the UK than there are hybrids, and most of them are MX-5s...

 

[Robin]

It will still be significantly less. The amount of tourist compared to those who actually live in the UK is probably pretty far apart. Plus I assume like America, most tourist arrive by airplane (or train, but we don't have those in the US) instead of by car.

Its more European tourists and migrant workers I'm referring to, tourists arriving by plane obviously wont be a factor. Yes the numbers are significantly less NOW, but how will the foreign numbers be relative to the domestic numbers at that point? They might even equal them. There is another thing to consider, people going to buy new petrol cars (maybe because they are still cheaper than electric) in a neighbouring country and bringing them in. People have been doing this with Irish cars for many years.

Europe operates like one big country, people just drive all around it. Us Brits flood Europe every school holiday with thousands of cars. Unless there is either a Europe wide ban or a ban on anything but foreign electric vehicles crossing the borders then you can't bring the numbers of polluting cars down as effectively.

Of course this is all hypothetical, in 15 years all the cars sold in the world might only be electric anyway!

 

[Famine]

Yes the numbers are significantly less NOW, but how will the foreign numbers be relative to the domestic numbers at that point? They might even equal them.

If there are 30 million more cars on the road, driving 8,000 miles apiece every time they're here, we'll have larger problems than emissions. We won't be able to physically fit them on the roads.

There is another thing to consider, people going to buy new petrol cars (maybe because they are still cheaper than electric) in a neighbouring country and bringing them in. People have been doing this with Irish cars for many years.

Even assuming that electric cars will still be more expensive than petrol ones by 2040 (they won't) and that you'll still be able to get petrol cheaply (you won't), I suspect that it's not going to be illegal to sell a car in the sense that if you do you'll get sent to prison. I suspect that it'll simply be refused first registration.

After all, there's nothing to stop dealers registering cars and then selling them as pre-registered (used, but new) if new registrations aren't stopped.

I'm wondering about low volume manufacturers like Aston Martin myself.

 

[Suzumiya]

I think low volume performance manufacturers will be fine. Even if their ranges are low, it's not like the petrol racing road cars are the most efficient in range anyways. By 2040, electric development will most likely drastically lower in cost.

 

[Joey D]

I'm wondering about low volume manufacturers like Aston Martin myself.

Aren't hybrids excluded from the sales ban? I'd imagine they'd just end up making something along the lines of what's used in Le Mans cars.

 

[Robin]

If there are 30 million more cars on the road, driving 8,000 miles apiece every time they're here, we'll have larger problems than emissions. We won't be able to physically fit them on the roads.

Relative to domestic Petrol/Diesel numbers in 2041, obviously!

Aren't hybrids excluded from the sales ban?

Nope.

 

[TVR27]

Great , I live in California, that means Governor Moonbeam will adopt this by the end of the year. Lord help us all...

 

[05XR8]

Guess this answers my question

Under the proposals, local authorities would be able to charge levies on the drivers of the diesel vehicles on the most polluted roads from 2020, if air quality does not improve, the Daily Mail newspaper said.

So, 2 years and 5 months to improve air quality. That ain't happening.

Plus, with Volvo only selling electric cars. How does this effect the growing SUV/CUV market? It'll come down to the available infrastructure per country. Yet, so many manufacturers are going to have to play catch up.


Edit: Question: Does this also have to do with Brexit? Under EU law, can Britain be heavily fined for not meeting its pollution reduction target by 2020?

 

[Joey D]

Nope.

I'm not so sure, various media outlets are suggesting that's not the case: https://www.autocar.co.uk/car-news/industry/hybrids-exempt-britains-petrol-and-diesel-car-ban

 

[Robin]

I'm not so sure, various media outlets are suggesting that's not the case: https://www.autocar.co.uk/car-news/industry/hybrids-exempt-britains-petrol-and-diesel-car-ban

When they announced it was implied that it would be anything with a combustion engine. They have probably since softened the tone as the government does with pretty much everything. It is true though that this hasn't been put into law yet and will probably be debated for ages.

I think Hybrids are a pretty archaic idea now anyway. Most EV's can do a decent enough range.

 

[homeforsummer]

Plus, with Volvo only selling electrified cars.

Corrected. Plenty of places misreported that news a few weeks back. In reality, Volvo will be little different from a company like Lexus, which already has an entire range of hybrid vehicles.

 

[Schmiggz]

It's a beautiful idea from the brits but if China and the USA keep pretending they're not destroying the planet with their uncontrollable massive amount of pollution making, all this fresh ideas are basically pointless.

 

[05XR8]

Corrected. Plenty of places misreported that news a few weeks back. In reality, Volvo will be little different from a company like Lexus, which already has an entire range of hybrid vehicles.

Ah, OK. Seemed a bit optimistic that Volvo was going cold turkey on the ICE.

 

[Danoff]

Thinking about this a bit more today. Since the market is headed that way anyway, and by 2040 there will no doubt be only a niche market for ICE vehicles. What is the point besides to tick off the niche consumers?

 

[homeforsummer]

Thinking about this a bit more today. Since the market is headed that way anyway, and by 2040 there will no doubt be only a niche market for ICE vehicles. What is the point besides to tick off the niche consumers?

Usual government hot air. Whether any sort of ban will happen or not in 2040 the announcement gives the illusion that they're working towards something. Placates those who complain that basically every British city is well over the EU-recommended limits for air pollutants, and briefly distracts everyone else from the horrendously incompetent Brexit negotiations.

As the editor from Autocar puts it, our government "can’t even commit to a date to switchover to digital-only radio", so I can't imagine there'll be much action on their part.

 

[NFSCARBON1]

What makes me laugh about all of this is that this is the same government that has just abandoned the electrification of many railway lines because the new trains are being fitted with diesel engines! Assuming they last as long as the current trains that were introduced 40 years ago, the new trains are going to be here till 2060, 20 years after new diesel cars will be outlawed.

 

[Famine]

Ah, OK. Seemed a bit optimistic that Volvo was going cold turkey on the ICE.

That's why you should get your car news from GTP - we get it right.

 

[Robin]

There seems to be rumours going about that, as well as petrol and diesel cars, the government is now seeking to ban Hybrid cars that are unable to do more than 50 miles on electric power only by 2040.

I would assume by then that hybrid cars, even if they still exist, would be able to do considerably more than that given the likely improvements in battery tech.

That hasn't stopped the car industry raising it's concerns, especially as all this scaremongering is leading to huge falls in new car sales right now.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-44008098

 

[m8h3r]

Trouble is, if nobody buys the hybrids due to this 50m minimum then the tech will get dropped before it develops to that stage.