North Korea, Sanctions, and Kim Jong-un

The report has been forwarded to the UN, recommending that the North be taken before the ICC. Pyongyang have been informed, but naturally categorically deny the findings as propaganda. It is expected that any resolution put before the UN to try key members of the DPRK - including The Little Dictator That Could - would be rejected by China. Why, I don't know, but possibly because they have sent defectors back in the past and may be considered to have abetted the North. But even if China agreed, I have no idea how the ICC might dig Kim out of the North for trial.
 
prisonermonkeys
...any resolution put before the UN to try key members of the DPRK...would be rejected by China. Why, I don't know
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The "Why" is easy. North Korea is an ally of China. China needs all the allies it can get. China is currently making enemies of Japan, Philippines, Australia, Indonesia and Vietnam with its aggressive claim to 90% of the entire South China Sea.
 
Dotini
The "Why" is easy. North Korea is an ally of China.
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An ally with no strategic value. They are only allies for the sake of getting the North to trust someone in negotiations over their nuclear programme.

Although if a resolution was passed that only prosecuted the North, China might be more agreeable. And agreeing to it might bring them back into better standing with some of their neighbours who get nervous about the North.

Australia
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Given the way we have handled Indonesia in the past six months, it's more likely that we are the ones who upset China.
 
prisonermonkeys
An ally with no strategic value. They are only allies for the sake of getting the North to trust someone in negotiations over their nuclear programme.

Although if a resolution was passed that only prosecuted the North, China might be more agreeable. And agreeing to it might bring them back into better standing with some of their neighbours who get nervous about the North.


Given the way we have handled Indonesia in the past six months, it's more likely that we are the ones who upset China.
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NK had value for a long time for the PRC. NK would help tie down US and allies assets in the area and help keep the eye off the PRC. Plus NK could help with plausible deniability when the PRC wanted to export various military equipment. Hell even today the PRC is renewing the Sino-North Korean Mutual Aid and Cooperation Friendship Treaty .It says the PRC will help defend NK if anyone attacks them and is valid until 2021.
 
Badasp5.0
It says the PRC will help defend NK if anyone attacks them and is valid until 2021.
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Except that agreeing to a resolution that would see Kim put on trial before the ICC does not count as an attack. The treaty only says that China will aid North Korea, not the Kims.

I suppose that the ICC could try him in absentia (which is not unheard of) and lure him out to defend himself, though Kim would likely stay in Pyongyang. But the ICC managed to get Slobodan Milosevic out of the former Yugoslavia, so they may be able to get Kim and his cronies.
 
prisonermonkeys
Except that agreeing to a resolution that would see Kim put on trial before the ICC does not count as an attack. The treaty only says that China will aid North Korea, not the Kims.
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Very true but for all intent and purposes NK=KIMs and the PRC has helped prop them up for decades. The last time the PRC went to war on the side of NK it was against a UN force that had United Nations Security Council Resolution 84.
 
The nature of the relationship has changed considerably since then. Beijing no longer supports Pyongyang out of ideals, but rather because the North needs *someone* to trade with. It also China to play good cop at the negotiating table to the United States' bad cop. Why do you think the world has been able to talk the Kims down in the past? It's because China humour them enough to get a diplomatic solution. As far as allies go, North Korea is a pretty poor one and dangerously unstable to boot. China will not go out of their way to hold onto them as a partner.
 
prisonermonkeys
The nature of the relationship has changed considerably since then. Beijing no longer supports Pyongyang out of ideals, but rather because the North needs *someone* to trade with. It also China to play good cop at the negotiating table to the United States' bad cop. Why do you think the world has been able to talk the Kims down in the past? It's because China humour them enough to get a diplomatic solution. As far as allies go, North Korea is a pretty poor one and dangerously unstable to boot. China will not go out of their way to hold onto them as a partner.
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It seems to many observers that China is militarily going in harm's way in the South China Sea. To heck with diplomacy, at the end of the day it's a question of will and force as the gloves come off with Japan and anybody else foolish enough to send boats and planes to stop China's expansion and physical regional ambitions. The US is lining up to ally with those brave enough to stand in China's way. When the big guys start using force, they draw their allies near to cover their rear. China is using NK as an armed and potentially violent catspaw within its scheme of regional expansion. See Sun Tzu. The situation is getting very, very serious and scary. Observers say. WTF do I know? Nothing that isn't already in print and in motion. I guess China will hold North Korea very close and tight as a partner while China makes her strategic grab to the south and east.

There is a very old and very large dragon stirring in the east. Such a beast has a great appetite. There will be fire and blood, ere its thirst is slaked.
 
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Dotini
It seems to many observers that China is militarily going in harm's way in the South China Sea. To heck with diplomacy, at the end of the day it's a question of will and force as the gloves come off with Japan and anybody else foolish enough to send boats and planes to stop China's expansion and physical regional ambitions. The US is lining up to ally with those brave enough to stand in China's way. When the big guys start using force, they draw their allies near to cover their rear. China is using NK as an armed and potentially violent catspaw within its scheme of regional expansion. See Sun Tzu. The situation is getting very, very serious and scary. Observers say. WTF do I know? Nothing that isn't already in print and in motion. I guess China will hold North Korea very close and tight as a partner while China makes her strategic grab to the south and east.

There is a very old and very large dragon stirring in the east. Such a beast has a great appetite. There will be fire and blood, ere its thirst is slaked.
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If China's smart, the current situation with Japan is just the preparation. They will continue to build its Navy & Air Force, they will hope to weaken the U.S., both politically & militarily for few more years.

IMO, once they either feel that their power projection is close to that of the U.S., or that they have enough political influence on the U.S. to have them stand down, only then they will make a move on Taiwan & Senkaku Islands(Japanese Islands claimed by China).

Maybe I'm giving them too much credit, but I think they are being very deliberate here.
 
prisonermonkeys
Except that agreeing to a resolution that would see Kim put on trial before the ICC does not count as an attack. The treaty only says that China will aid North Korea, not the Kims.

I suppose that the ICC could try him in absentia (which is not unheard of) and lure him out to defend himself, though Kim would likely stay in Pyongyang. But the ICC managed to get Slobodan Milosevic out of the former Yugoslavia, so they may be able to get Kim and his cronies.
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The difference is that Milosevic was no longer in power when he was brought before the ICC, whereas the Kim regime doesn't look as if it's going anywhere fast.
 
Look at this map.
P1-BO193A_CSHIP_G_20131201175712.jpg

http://s.wsj.net/public/resources/images/P1-BO193A_CSHIP_G_20131201175712.jpg

The Chinese claim to 90% of the South China Sea slashes across the lines claimed by Philippines, Brunei, Malaysia, and Vietnam. The South China Sea is said to hold 10% of the worlds fishing stock, and is a vital transportation corridor.
 
Dotini
Look at this map.
P1-BO193A_CSHIP_G_20131201175712.jpg

http://s.wsj.net/public/resources/images/P1-BO193A_CSHIP_G_20131201175712.jpg

The Chinese claim to 90% of the South China Sea slashes across the lines claimed by Philippines, Brunei, Malaysia, and Vietnam. The South China Sea is said to hold 10% of the worlds fishing stock, and is a vital transportation corridor.
Click to expand...
The Chinese, if they could, would claim the Pacific Coast of the United States is their border. The terms "International Waters" = Our property.
 
All this talk about China making America bow down to her militarily and what not. I seriously doubt China would want to seriously harm their number one customer in trade.

And if it did come to a war, and very unlikely that is, I like our chances.
 
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There's a world of difference between winning 100% of the vote and being the only candidate.

In North Korea, you get a choice of 'vote' - do you love the leader, yes or no. A yes vote means nothing changes. A no vote means nothing changes but you and your entire extended family are sent to a labour camp and/or killed. If I were in North Korea, I'd vote for Kim Jong-un too.
 
I had no idea North Korea was so democratic! They really are as great as they say they are. What a great country where 100% of the population likes the government.

:P
 
99% turnout, that must have been a terrible disappointment for him, especially the day after being on the news for personally winning the World Cup, Eurovision, Miss World and The Olympics.
 
Aide: Sir, we are reporting 100% of the vote in and you received 9,064,103 votes. 99.99999% of the vote. However there were two votes for a Mr. Mickey Mouse.
Kim Jong Un: Wait, who is this person who voted for Mickey Mouse?! Who is Mickey Mouse?! We must punish this Mr. Mouse opposing me and these two people who DARED not vote for me.
 
sumbrownkid
All this talk about China making America bow down to her militarily and what not. I seriously doubt China would want to seriously harm their number one customer in trade.

And if it did come to a war, and very unlikely that is, I like our chances.
Click to expand...

IMO you are absolutely right about the threat of war between the US and China. It may make great video game content but it will never happen. There are too many business arrangements between them including business conducted between other countries considered allies by the US.

Now the support of regional conflicts where China can make a few bucks on weapons sales will continue for some time to come. I could see these types of conflicts continuing but a showdown between two super powers is highly unlikely.
 

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