[POLL] United States Presidential Elections 2016

[Biggles]

This could be the beginning of the end for Trump as conservatives coalesce around Cruz & the GOP establishment gets solidly behind Rubio. Gotta love Bernie, but I hate to think what the Presidency would do to him - his hair (such as it is) is already white.

 

[Chrunch Houston]

Jeb! spends over $2800 per vote as the GOP establishment crumbles.

http://www.weeklystandard.com/article/2000869/

 

[prisonermonkeys]

Clinton declared the winner on the Democrat side of the fence, beating Sanders by just 0.4%:

http://mobile.abc.net.au/news/2016-...white-house-campaign-faces-first-test/7132486

 

[Touring Mars]

GOP result in terms of delegates:

Ted Cruz- 8
Donald Trump - 7
Marco Rubio - 7
Ben Carson - 3
Rand Paul - 1
Jeb Bush - 1
Others - 0
Unpledged - 3

DEM result in terms of delegates:
Clinton - 22
Sanders - 21
Unpledged - 1

This could be the beginning of the end for Trump as conservatives coalesce around Cruz & the GOP establishment gets solidly behind Rubio. Gotta love Bernie, but I hate to think what the Presidency would do to him - his hair (such as it is) is already white.

Yeh, even though Trump wasn't expected to win big in Iowa, it's a serious blow. Recent polls have put Trump ahead of Cruz and Rubio's combined vote share - but this result shows what will probably happen in reality - Trump will have nowhere near enough delegates to win the nomination outright... he will even struggle to win any states with over 50% where there is a winner-takes-all trigger at that point, because the vote will be split three ways if Cruz and Rubio both stay in to the death, which they will.

Trump could easily win the most delegates and still be very far short of the 50%+1 total required to secure the nomination, and then all bets are off.

Great result for Bernie Sanders. I think Hillary's hair will be white by the time this election is decided too.


edit: According to the individual results in the Democratic vote, there was less than 300 votes (out of nearly 139,000) between Clinton and Sanders...

 

[Dotini]

So Ted "Awaken the body of Christ!" Cruz has won Iowa, and the polls were off well beyond the percentage of error. I think Ted had the best ground game and team for dealing with the caucus state of Iowa. Kudos to him, a smart and revolutionary man.

Trump has had a moment of clarity to reflect upon his errors and shortcomings.

Rubio has clearly won the backing of the establishment, for all the good and ill that portends.

Dr. Carson is still a strong player.

Rand Paul emerges in a clear 5th, still a player. He's my man!

Jeb Bush. Spent more than all the rest combined, but will he give up?

 

[Sanji Himura]

OP updated with the aftermath of the Iowa Caucuses. H/T to @Touring Mars for providing the updated delegate count.

 

[Omnis]

There's a good portion of college students who can't vote because they from another county or out of state. Hell, I had to drive an hour and a half back home to vote in my local elections because I forgot to update my voter registration. I don't even live there anymore. A ton of kids never change their voter registration, much less even change their mailing address when they move around on campus.

That's dumb. The campaign had more than enough time to re-register them for Johnson County. And nobody from outside of Iowa goes to the University of Iowa. Could've had another delegate.

 

[Rich S]

This could be the beginning of the end for Trump as conservatives coalesce around Cruz & the GOP establishment gets solidly behind Rubio. Gotta love Bernie, but I hate to think what the Presidency would do to him - his hair (such as it is) is already white.

I doubt it, Iowa gop has been a bit different from other state's gop recently. What will be interesting to see is Sanders. Can he get some traction from this.... Iowa farmers are a bit different, minnesota farmers too, they tend to vote democrat and are only swayed by religious stuff. Southern farmers on the other hand block vote fiscal conservative and also religious conservative regardless.

Sanders will probably still loose to hillary but man he could get serious traction from the Iowa tie. And people wont buy Hillary just happening to win 3 coin flips in a row...

 

[CodeRedR51]

Based on recent polls, New Hampshire will be equally as close or Bernie will take it.

 

[squadops]

Gotta love Bernie, but I hate to think what the Presidency would do to him - his hair (such as it is) is already white.

*needs more jpeg

 

[Johnnypenso]

*needs more jpeg

Which one is the real Bernie?

 

[Keef]

That's dumb. The campaign had more than enough time to re-register them for Johnson County. And nobody from outside of Iowa goes to the University of Iowa. Could've had another delegate.

I beg to differ. I don't see anybody walking around here at OSU reminding me to reregister. And I know a few people from Dayton alone that went to Iowa. Why, when you've got the best school in the country in your own state, I have no idea, but they did.

Speaking of which, I should reregister.

 

[Omnis]

Which one is the real Bernie?

Bernie's hair is worse than the crypt keeper. How can you run an administration when you can't even keep your do in check.

 

[Dotini]

Back in the day, it was said that the candidate with the best hair won the presidency.

 

[Sanji Himura]

Washington Post's John Wagner: The Iowa Democrat Party has lost results from 90 precincts. This is citing sources from the Sanders' campaign.

http://www.theblaze.com/stories/201...y-that-results-from-90-precincts-are-missing/

Since the caucus was not operated by the State's election board, any results from last night is the final results.

EDIT: C-SPAN is also reporting that there is voter fraud going on in Polk County. The channel claims that the caucus chair and the Clinton precinct watch captain did not count the actual bodies that voted for Hillary.

http://www.c-span.org/video/?c4578575/clinton-voter-fraud-polk-county-iowa-caucus

 

[Dennisch]

I saw something about coin flip voting?

 

[dylansan]

There's also reports that some results were determined by a coin toss, but that's since been dismissed as misleading. It wouldn't have changed the number of delegates.

Edit: tree'd

 

[Johnnypenso]

Bernie's hair is worse than the crypt keeper. How can you run an administration when you can't even keep your do in check.

Bernie should rock a skullet:

 

[Swagger897]

as if he already isn't...

 

[Johnnypenso]

as if he already isn't...

Right now he has the common, socialist, "I don't care about personal appearance because issues are more important", type of hair. In the horrifying but slim chance he actually wins the presidency, let's hope he attends that White House Barber on a regular basis.

 

[CodeRedR51]

...horrifying but slim chance he actually wins...

This is what's great about everyone paying no attention to him in the media because I'm pretty sure his chances are a lot better than most. People can dismiss him all they want, but he's going to make it interesting.

 

[Biggles]

I'm puzzled by the fixation on "winning" or "losing" Iowa. Even if Clinton turns out to have gained a few more votes & one more delegate than Sanders, what significance does that have? It's clearly a massive victory for Sanders. Fascinatingly, 74 year old Sanders (according to entrance polls) gained 84% of the 17 - 29 vote (while Rand Paul managed 4.5% of the total GOP vote - a "player" ... I don't think so). Sanders will win NH comfortably, I believe, after that ... things will get tougher for him.

The way I see it: Cruz will emerge as the "conservative" candidate. Rubio will start to get the full support of the GOP machine as the "establishment" candidate. Trump will hang in there for a while but his reputation as a "winner" (not to mention his ego) will not be able to handle repeated losses. Clinton will eventually prevail as the full weight of the Democratic establishment comes to bear. Carson's done - just a "stunt" candidate like Herman Cain.

 

[Swagger897]

Yeah I don't see where people are getting this "slim chance, no way in hell" sort of stuff. If you picked either two of the top republican candidates, you still have 60-70 percent of the party against them, whilst democrats are split 50/50 right now.

Carson's done - just a "stunt" candidate like Herman Cain.

Inevitably waiting for his suspension now...

 

[Johnnypenso]

This is what's great about everyone paying no attention to him in the media because I'm pretty sure his chances are a lot better than most. People can dismiss him all they want, but he's going to make it interesting.

Paying no attention to him in the media? On what planet?

 

[huskeR32]

Right now he has the common, socialist, "I don't care about personal appearance because issues are more important", type of hair.

So now, even someone's hair is a political statement?

 

[Biggles]

You wait - soon hipsters everywhere will be abandoning facial hair in favour of the "Bern" (dramatically receding, wild, straggly hair) .

 

[CodeRedR51]

Paying no attention to him in the media? On what planet?

What I meant to say is that he hasn't done anything stupid to gain unwanted attention.

 

[Swagger897]

You wait - soon hipsters everywhere will be abandoning facial hair in favour of the "Bern" (dramatically receding, wild, straggly hair) .

Unfortunately I don't have a choice...

 

[Tornado]

What I meant to say is that he hasn't done anything stupid to gain unwanted attention.

And most of the election coverage is generally as framed by how it affects her.

 

[Adamgp]

Jeb! spends over $2800 per vote as the GOP establishment crumbles.

http://www.weeklystandard.com/article/2000869/

Here's the full list of candidates and how much they spent in Iowa:

https://www.globalcitizen.org/en/content/how-much-did-the-candidates-spend-per-vote-in-iowa/

Trump spent by far the least and still got 2nd place.