Presidential Debates

[Solid Fro]

How is this link any different from the one Arwin posted? Have you read the title of the report?

Arwin posted the poll that only includes Bush and Kerry. It does not include Nader or undecided voters. Last time I checked, Nader is an option too. Also, the poll he posted is of likely voters, not registered voters. Ironically, registered voters (voted in at least three previous elections) are more likely to vote than likely voters (those who say they might vote).

 

[Carl.]

Arwin posted the poll that only includes Bush and Kerry. It does not include Nader or undecided voters. Last time I checked, Nader is an option too. Also, the poll he posted is of likely voters, not registered voters. Ironically, registered voters (voted in at least three previous elections) are more likely to vote than likely voters (those who say they might vote).

Not that it matters that much, but let's go step by step here:

1 - Click on the link you posted.

2 - Minimized the explorer window

3 - Click on the link Arwin posted

4 - Switcht back and forth between the two explorer windows

5 - Find 8 differences (or Waldo)

6 - Return to this window, and tell me what they are.

7 - Optionally, you could read ledhed post again.

Let's all get over the excitement of these very interesting polls, shall we?

 

[Tacet_Blue]

Poles poles poles

They are always so accurate ...Bush could well do with being behind on a pole at this stage, because there is so much apathy in voters, if they think he is doing ok, they might not vote...

 

[ledhed]

There is no danger of that. Feelings are running so high that voter turnout may be of record proportions. No one wants a repeat of the last election. Do not forget that the republicans have a VERY strong base. The Democrats just do not feel good about Kerry BUT they cant stand Bush so that should drive them to vote reguardless. This should be a great election..Kerry will get blown out but alot of voters will go to the polls. the next President will have a mandate. one way or another.

 

[Danoff]

Cheney whipped up on Edwards tonight. It wasn't even funny. Edwards got blasted over and over on question after question. It was pretty pathetic.

The part where Edwards wouldn't include Iraqi casualties and costs in his figures was amazing. Cheney just took Edwards over his knee on that issue - totally smacking him around saying that he was belittling Iraqi support and that that was exactly the kind of thing that prevents cooperation.

 

[Solid Fro]

Agreed.

Cheney took Edwards to school in this debate. The one thing that boiled my blood was when Edwards said something to the effect of "I don't need a long track record to be vice president."

What?!

The position of vice president is a job. If you do not have the resume to prove that you have the skills for the job, you will not get hired. Edwards does not have the resume for the job. The arrogance of Edwards' statement was absolutely ridiculous.

 

[Arwin]

Arwin posted the poll that only includes Bush and Kerry. It does not include Nader or undecided voters. Last time I checked, Nader is an option too. Also, the poll he posted is of likely voters, not registered voters. Ironically, registered voters (voted in at least three previous elections) are more likely to vote than likely voters (those who say they might vote).

We can argue about 2%, different polls, registered vs likely voters and so on, but the original question was whether Bush or Kerry won the debate. You said:

I thought Kerry was strong, but he was inconsistent once again. He went all over the place and avoided some of the questions by bringing up previous statements. Bush won, but it wasn't a knockout.

I was just saying that if I look at the numbers, Kerry won the debate. There seems to be little disagreement on that among polls at least. Whether or not Kerry took the lead, pulled equal or is still a percent or two behind doesn't matter all that much, at least not for the discussion who won the debate.

EDIT: Regardless of what I personally think (I haven't watched - either in fact), the VP debate seems to be a tie - i.e. most Democrats think that Edwards won, and most Republicans think that Cheney won.

 

[Solid Fro]

You are the one that brought up the election numbers, Arwin.

 

[Arwin]

You are the one that brought up the election numbers, Arwin.

I did. To make a point. That I just made. What's yours now?

 

[Solid Fro]

If the 2% in the election polls don't matter that much, why did you bring it up?

That's my point.

Don't prance around with one poll that says Kerry is in the lead and then say polls have no value when I contradict you with five polls that say Bush is in the lead.

 

[ledhed]

Arwin its hard to determine who won a debate without watching it. I can understand that you do not live in the USA (although at times I cant really tell) and have your own European sphere to worry about. But just for the sake of argument, if you use poll numbers for one debate to make your determination as to whom has won, then the poll numbers for the second debate , that show the Vice President as having won should be just as credible. Don't you think ?

 

[Arwin]

If the 2% in the election polls don't matter that much, why did you bring it up?

That's my point.

Don't prance around with one poll that says Kerry is in the lead and then say polls have no value when I contradict you with five polls that say Bush is in the lead.

Ok, listen - I read the two major newspapers here in the Netherlands, and they wrote that Kerry won the debate. You said Bush won the debate. I questioned that, having read an article using the Newsweek poll. You came up with numbers of polls of your own, and asked me what poll I used. I replied, and you dismissed Newsweek as a valid poll compared to Gallup and Pew.

I never said that the polls have no value, on the contrary, you fully misunderstand me. I merely tried to point out that whether or not the polls say Bush or Kerry leads doesn't matter for the discussion we were having here, which is which of the two candidates won the debate. We are not discussing at this point which of the two will eventually win the elections, as that's another matter.

@ledhed: although I think I could be fairly impartial when judging a debate like this, my conclusion on which of the candidates won the debate is still going to be influenced by what my own thoughts on the debate's subject matter are. When determining who won the debate, that's not the point. The only indication we have for this are the polls.

As far as the Cheney / Edwards polls are concerned, I had so far seen one (ABC), in which the preference towards Cheney corresponded with the surplus of Republican voters taking part. I do not know if any numbers exist to indicate whether Edwards or Cheney got more or less popular after this debate, but I'm sure things will become clearer.

 

[milefile]

The debates are for people who can't make up their own mind. It's hard for me to understand how anybody can still be undecided at this point in time. What more could you possibly need to make up your mind? All we will see from now until election day is mud-slinging from both sides. There will be no new issues, no revelations, only cheap-shots and gossip. People who are influenced by this are of no interest to me. I don't care what "the polls" say, as they are historically insignificant and have value only as fodder for silly arguments like this thread. See you on November 4th.

 

[Danoff]

As far as the Cheney / Edwards polls are concerned, I had so far seen one (ABC), in which the preference towards Cheney corresponded with the surplus of Republican voters taking part. I do not know if any numbers exist to indicate whether Edwards or Cheney got more or less popular after this debate, but I'm sure things will become clearer.

The whole reason this thread exists is so that people can say who they think won. Everyone knows what the polls say. Not everyone agrees with the polls. I happen to think Kerry lost the first debate. He looked better but his answers were not as good.

The question is who had the better argument?

 

[milefile]

The question is who had the better argument?

You're expecting too much. Look at the aruments offered in this forum.

 

[87chevy]

i agree with danoff. *gasp* Kerry was more presentable, but I liked Bush's answers more. I did not see the Vice Pres. debate, i got a bad headache (so much so that i didn't even eat much dinner, which is extremely abnormal) so i went to bed. I'll have to watch CSPAN for the replay. I can't believe Edwards would say he doesn't need "a long track record."!!! what a fool!

 

[Solid Fro]

According to ABC News/Washington Post, Cheney won 42% - 35% in the debate. It's funny how all you heard after the first presidential debate was "Bush lost, Bush lost, Bush lost!" Yet, you hear nothing to the tune of "Edwards lost, Edwards lost, Edwards lost!" Maybe it's just me or maybe the vice president debates are just not that exciting, but this just screams media bias to me.

 

[Arwin]

According to ABC News/Washington Post, Cheney won 42% - 35% in the debate. It's funny how all you heard after the first presidential debate was "Bush lost, Bush lost, Bush lost!" Yet, you hear nothing to the tune of "Edwards lost, Edwards lost, Edwards lost!" Maybe it's just me or maybe the vice president debates are just not that exciting, but this just screams media bias to me.

Well, as you taught me to read the fine print, it said that the voters were 37% Republican and 31% Democrat. That leaving barely 1%, this particular poll seems to suggest a tie. That was, at least, my conclusion based on this same poll above.

 

[ledhed]

From what I saw of the debate Edwards was outclassed and out gunned . He lost. Chenny should give his boss lessons. Edwards came off as a pissy whinny lawyer type. he lost points on his lack of experiance and his record in the senate. Kerry lost because his voting record was put up AGAIN for close viewing. I do not think the Dems can ever win on the war or foriegn policy but they do have to try not to get destroyed on it. If they have any shot its on the domestic front. The war is what it is , you are not going to change anyones mind at this point. Kerry has to convince people that he can defend the country. So far all he's doing is casting doubts about his ability to do it and the Republicans are like sharks in the water sensing blood. Thats why his record and his flip floping nature are being pounded on. he knows its his week point and thats why every other sentence of his is about his past service in the military. Sometimes one can protest too much....in Kerrys case people have long memorys and his past actions towards the military will not be forgiven.

 

[Solid Fro]

Well, as you taught me to read the fine print, it said that the voters were 37% Republican and 31% Democrat...

ABC News and the Washington Post isn't exactly right leaning. They should have weighted the poll numbers or picked a better base. If CNN is willing to run with this poll, it's good enough for me. 👍

 

[Arwin]

ABC News and the Washington Post isn't exactly right leaning. They should have weighted the poll numbers or picked a better base. If CNN is willing to run with this poll, it's good enough for me. 👍

It's not? Anyway, I read the CNN article as that's what led me to the ABC News poll. CNN writes this:

"According to an ABC poll, 43 percent of registered voters said Cheney won, 35 percent gave the win to Edwards, and 19 percent called it a tie. Thirty-eight percent of the viewers were Republicans, 31 percent Democrats, the rest independents. The phone survey was conducted among a random sample of 509 registered voters who watched the debate."

They also wrote this, btw:

"CBS News' poll specifically focused on uncommitted voters and found 41 percent deemed Edwards the winner, 28 percent chose Cheney, and 31 percent said it was a tie. CBS based its poll on a "nationally representative sample of 178 debate watchers ... who are either undecided about who to vote for or who have a preference but say they could still change their minds."

But these poll numbers are being based on such small numbers that their validity should be questioned even if they'd been run here in The Netherlands (16.5 million inhabitants), let alone in the US.

But ok, enough with the stats. I watched the first bit of the first debate on the web yesterday and fell asleep. This thread is threatening to become even less interesting ... It's just that if we were to evaluate the debate based on our own points of view of who won, this thread becomes completely pointless as we all know what we think on all the issues discussed thanks to the other threads in the Opinion forum. Or am I wrong?

 

[Solid Fro]

Those undecided voters are also the uneducated ones.

👍

 

[Carl.]

One day, I'll be good enough to quote myself and give me thumbs up.

one day...

 

[Max Powers]

👍

The undecided voters are also the ones who will make the difference in the election, educated or not.

 

[milefile]

The undecided voters are also the ones who will make the difference in the election, educated or not.

What a stupid thing to say. That's the same as saying "your vote doesn't count."

 

[Max Powers]

What a stupid thing to say. That's the same as saying "your vote doesn't count."

Their votes count just as much as any other, but with the polls as close as they are, undecided voters will have a big impact on the election.

 

[Danoff]

It's just that if we were to evaluate the debate based on our own points of view of who won, this thread becomes completely pointless as we all know what we think on all the issues discussed thanks to the other threads in the Opinion forum. Or am I wrong?

Your wrong because it's not required that people be totally partisan. Maybe you think Kerry is the best guy to lead the country but that he botched the debate... Just because a person is going to vote for him doesn't mean that person has to think he did a great job with the debate.

 

[ledhed]

How could anyone be truly undecided at this point ? What are they waiting for divine guidance ? What can the candidates say at this point to change minds ? I do not buy this undecided crap..it sounds more like "mind your business" or" I'm just confused" or "I thought Nixon was president." Undecided voters my tookus. They know ..they just aint tellin'

 

[cardude2004]

Some people can't ever make up their minds. It is like their lost.

 

[87chevy]

ok, this is what i know about Kerry's voting record on the famous '87 billion dollars':

In talking with my dad during our Wednesday dinner ritual, i learned that apparently, Kerry did indeed vote for the 87 billion before he voted against it. and this is why, the first bill, was put up by Democrats it put money in for pretty much exactly what the second one did, EXCEPT!! that the first bill also had measures to PAY FOR IT! as in adjusting taxes and other things. the first bill actually tried to account for the 87billion. That bill failed. Then the Republicans put up their bill that still wanted to use all that money, but they didn't care where it came from. They didn't want to be accountable for the money i suppose, so they just spent it.

this one issue, has taught me that when it comes to politics, oversimplification is rampant. especially when it comes to your average joe discussing the campaigns in the local bar.