If Ron Paul ends up any lower than a close 2nd place finish tonight, I guarantee you there will be strong accusations of vote fraud. The Iowa state GOP has a history of using the buddy system when it comes to caucus votes and tabulation.
In my opinion, the constant rotation of front-runners has demonstrated the basic idea that the system has been rigged in favor of Romney from the start. Considering that they dug up the issue of racism in regard to Paul in order to discredit him, again, showed that they were quite desperate to get ahead in Iowa.
The thing is, even if Ron Paul did win, the Republicans would have written off his performance as nothing more than a misnomer. Because he challenges the very basis of what "modern" Republicans stand for, they won't let him go on the national ticket. Paul would need to do a lot of winning in order to be taken seriously, and even if he did win several primaries, I still doubt they would allow Romney to be out at any point.
What is most-curious is that Murdoch threw his support behind Santorum today. Not only did he choose the most-clueless candidate, he chose the one who associates least with younger voters, and has little appeal outside of the bible-belt. It is demonstrating completely that it is a numbers game, and the only thing they care about is being elected and maintaining power. Paul is a direct threat to what they want, and they will not deal with it.
We'll see tonight. Fingers crossed that Paul can take it, use that momentum to push out the crazies like Santorum or Bachman. I'll still be voting for Paul on the 28th (February), just like in '08, even if it is an uphill battle against Romney like before.
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EDIT: Interesting Post on FiveThirtyEight.com
Why I'd Bet On Santorum (And Against My Model)
Basically, the folks in Iowa don't have the advantage of time when considering candidates, and rarely is an accurate barometer for states in other parts of the country. He looks at the past swings with other candidates ('00, '04 and '08 specifically) and applies the math to his own polling model. The results?
Believable, I'd say.