Random Prize Cars - my views

  • Thread starter gumpy
  • 125 comments
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Experiment: Altezza Series

Won first 4 races and then saved.

Reloaded as follows:

1-10 No input
11-25 pressed X attempting to win top Vitz
26-28 tried direction down to win Altezza
29-30 tried X to win Altezza (bottom car)

Results:

1 Top Vitz
2 X540
3 X540
4 Right Vitz
5 Altezza
6 X540
7 X540
8 Altezza
9 Altezza
10 Right Vitz
Reset machine and started to try to press X when black GT symbol is under top Vitz
11 Top Vitz
12 Altezza (I knew I was late)
13 Top Vitz
14 Altezza
15 Top Vitz
16 Altezza
17 Top Vitz
18 Top Vitz
19 Top Vitz
20 Right Vitz (I knew I was late)
21 X540 (I knew I was early)
22 Top Vitz
23 X540
24 Top Vitz
25 X540
I had gone on this long to see if the top vitz's dried up but decided at this point to win a car I wanted so tested down on the direction buttons to win an Altezza
26 Altezza Red (already have this)
27 Top Vitz
28 Top Vitz
Gave up and tried X
29 Right Vitz (I knew I was early)
30 Altezza Yellow (I kept it)

This was not intended to be part of the experiment but I did 3 endurance races and tried to win F1 car by pressing X.

Trial Mountain (I knew I pressed early and won the Mine's Skyline which is in the right position)
Seattle - Polyphony 002 (Blue - already had it)
Speedway - Polyphony 001 (Blue - already had it)

I believe these statistics are inconclusive. I will keep experimenting to see if I go through a patch where I hardly ever win the car I am trying for as I think this would prove the theory wrong and I think this will be the only way of getting a definite answer on this theory.

For those who have never tried this it is a hard thing to do to press at the right time. Someone has previously said that when the felt they pressed it at the right time they had 100% success. Someone challenged them on this "felt they got it right" but that is the best way to describe it.

I have highlighted a few tries where I knew I pressed it at the wrong time.

The few Altezzas are a worry at tries 14 and 16 because the Altezza is 2 spots way. However at that stage of the experiment I was still pressing pretty early while the symbol was still spinning quickly. Further into the experiment I left it until the next rotation.

In summary: it is promising enough for me to do endurance races and try to get the F1s I am missing. I still need some RX7s and FTOs from the Dream Car Champ and X540s and Altezzas at the Altezza series so will continue to experiment.

I still have not tested the quit at different stage in the last race theory because my control set has been quite a mixture and therefore I am not sure if the quit at different stage will achieve anything.

kogashiwa_kai sid in an earlier post:

But one thing I'm fairly certain of, is that the roulette behaves differently under two conditions :

1. Without user intervention
2. With user intervention

And I have not yet proved him wrong.
 
ive done allstars in pro league about 20 times and still not won the viper gts-r concept this is what i did get

r390 gt1 lm race car: 2
viper gts-r concept: 0:mad:
toyota gt1 race car: 4
subaru impreza sedan wrx sti: 14:irked:
 
Originally posted by gumpy
It could have been a combination of chaos theory, the laws of probability and randomosity.
Click to expand...

Randomosity. That's a great word. :)

As much as I respect the effort you're putting into helping us answer the 'random' question, all your testing will wind up the same: inconclusive. I've tried a few simple tests while going back to pick up cars I missed the first time thru, and seen things similar to your findings. Of course I was just there for the cars and not the programming, but I don't see how any results can shed much light on the technique used by PD to generate prize cars.

Date/time? Lap times? X-presses? Phases of the moon? Greek mythology? The writings of HP Lovecraft? The writings of Britney Spears? Any of these things (some more likely than others I suppose) could result in my winning a silver RX-7 LM. What if it's a random combination of these other random events? Without a peek at the source code, I don't think we'll ever really know.

My opinion? Randomosity.

My head's starting to hurt. I think I'm gonna go lie down for a while. :lol:
 
it depends on when u pressthe x button if u press on the 3rd car and then u press the 2d it will be the 2nd car
bleave me i didit 5 times and i know!!
 
Originally posted by CrackHoor
Randomosity. That's a great word. :)

As much as I respect the effort you're putting into helping us answer the 'random' question, all your testing will wind up the same: inconclusive. I've tried a few simple tests while going back to pick up cars I missed the first time thru, and seen things similar to your findings. Of course I was just there for the cars and not the programming, but I don't see how any results can shed much light on the technique used by PD to generate prize cars.

Date/time? Lap times? X-presses? Phases of the moon? Greek mythology? The writings of HP Lovecraft? The writings of Britney Spears? Any of these things (some more likely than others I suppose) could result in my winning a silver RX-7 LM. What if it's a random combination of these other random events? Without a peek at the source code, I don't think we'll ever really know.

My opinion? Randomosity.

My head's starting to hurt. I think I'm gonna go lie down for a while. :lol:
Click to expand...

If the X theory is wrong I think I will prove it. If it is right I don't think I will prove it.

If I press X at the "right" time but don't get that car on numerous occasions then I think the theory is proved wrong.
 
But if people get the wrong car they just say the missed the time...
 
Originally posted by DODGE the VIPER
But if people get the wrong car they just say the missed the time...
Click to expand...

You will notice in my experiment that I mentioned when I knew I had got it wrong (I knew this before the prize car came up). There are also times when the top vitz did not come up but I thought I had hit it right.

I am not a proponent of this theory so hopefully my experimenting is fairly independent.

All I am saying is that so far I am not convinced either way.

If the theory is wrong I will prove it wrong. If it is right we will never know.
 
I would also say to those who are bagging the people saying " I didn't hit it right". Try it yourself. It is a game in itself to try and hit X at the right time.
 
:mischievous: I say we all rampage the Polyphony Digital offices in attempt to find or beat out:banghead: the information regarding whether or not the prize selection in Gran Turismo 3 is random or player input based.:confused: Oh, and while we're at it, lets get the GT4 specs too.:D
 
A point to note : We already know that by itself the prize car roulette is obviously random. The question now is, if user interaction can influence or pre-empt the default random behaviour.
 
Originally posted by Derf
Yeah. what you said. has anyone ever thought of emailing these guys about this?
Click to expand...

I have thought about it but suspect they would not give us a straight answer.

I have not done any more experimenting but have tried the X trick in endurance races for my own benefit. Problem is I have tried for the F1 cars and have had no luck. And no I don't believe I didn't hit it right. I actually didn't really know because the F1 car was out of vie wwhen I did it.

kogashiwa_kai - When you want the bottom car do you guess when the symbol is there ie just after it leaves the right hand car ?
 
Originally posted by gumpy
kogashiwa_kai - When you want the bottom car do you guess when the symbol is there ie just after it leaves the right hand car ?
Click to expand...

Yeah. That's why I have trouble with the bottom two cars too. Makes it really hard as I deduced that we have about 3 rounds at the most of the spin to 'make an attempt'. And the bottom cars are barely in sight by then.

I've tested and observed the roulette. The system decides on the prize car very early on, and the roulette will just slow to a stop on the selected car. So I feel that you have about the first three revolutions to press the button. Which makes it quite hard to get the bottom cars. But I got my Arta NSX within 3 tires, though.
 
Originally posted by kogashiwa_kai
But I got my Arta NSX within 3 tires, though.
Click to expand...

I have to get in before Ving.

RANDOM

LOL.

Seriously if we assume that the X theory is still a possibility this is a bit of a bummer, especially since I am trying to win F1 cars at the endurance races and they are always at the bottom.
 
Originally posted by gumpy
I have to get in before Ving.

RANDOM

LOL.

Seriously if we assume that the X theory is still a possibility this is a bit of a bummer, especially since I am trying to win F1 cars at the endurance races and they are always at the bottom.
Click to expand...

Haha! :lol: I don't think Ving is going to like that...

Yeah, judging from your experiment, I think you've been able to 'influence' the outcome of the roulette fairly effectively. But if this is a symptom, it still means it'll improve the chances of getting a bottom car.
 
Hopefully Ving will take it as a joke. Me experimenting to test the X theory that is. I meant it for a laugh not a flame.

I should keep a folder with all my findings in it. It could be called the X-Files.

I may do a series tonight in which case I will probably go for an RX7 at the Dream Car series. But if I can fit it in I will probably try to do the Trial Mountain Endurance again.

I may need to do it in a different car.

I have used the Z06 and battled with the RX7. I found that I was driving too conservatively. I drove the car hard to improve my lap time by approx 4 secs. Next race I used the Z06 again and think I got in a fast rhythm as I soon lapped the whole field.

I started a race with the R390 and lapped the NSX but before getting much further quit before I started falling asleep again.

I may try the Speed 12.

I want that F1 Car.
 
Originally posted by kogashiwa_kai
This is good! :lol: And aptly name as well.



And get it, you will. The 'X' will help you get it :D After you get your F1 car, you can file it away in the X-Files :lol:
Click to expand...

My concern is that if I press X at the wrong time I will get the wrong car.
 
Originally posted by gumpy
My concern is that if I press X at the wrong time I will get the wrong car.
Click to expand...

Oh wait. This is the endurance race, right? Oooh... Then it's gonna be a gamble either way. Either hope for the best, or try and take a shot at it.
 
Originally posted by kogashiwa_kai
Oh wait. This is the endurance race, right? Oooh... Then it's gonna be a gamble either way. Either hope for the best, or try and take a shot at it.
Click to expand...

Yeah now you see my dilemma.

And I mainly have the 2 hour enduros (or near enough) left. I still sneak in a Speedway or Seattle if I have a spare 50 minutes but I mainly have Trial Mountain, R246, SSR11, Mistral to go to get my first f1 from those races. I also have not won the F1 from the Roadster race for a while. These are all pretty long.

I reckon I will not use the X trick on enduros except SSR11 as that is the only one where I only want the F1. At the others I can make use of at least one of the other prize cars.

If I get 1 or 2 more colours of the F1s then I may test the X theory at the enduros some more but until then I will play it safe.

I am likely to be tired tonight so I will experiment with the Dream Car series again so I can save and go to bed if necessary.
 
This is what I did last night.

Dream Car series. Was going to target RX7 from the start by pressing X. I honestly have no idea if I pressed it at the right time but since the RX7 is in view very early I doubt I missed it.

1. Imprezza Yellow
2. FTO White (kept it and stopped the experiment).

I wanted this car and home was quite frantic. I actually started to play at about 7pm not the usual 8.30pm so all 4 kids were still up. My wife was not impressed and was struggling with the kids. I basically decided to keep the FTO, experiment another time and save my marriage ie turn off the PS2.

Later in the night ran the R390 at Trial Mountain Endurance. Pitted every 20 minutes and won by about 3-4 laps from the NSX.

I was quite tired at the end of it and decided very late to try the X to win the F1..........Prize car = Polyphony 001 - colour ^@##$ Blue for about the 10th time. At least I can move on from this enduro. For me it seems the longest. I know it is 2 hours just like Rome but I find it the toughest to keep going in.

Anyway now for SSR11 where only the F1 will do.
 
and there goes the X theory....

oh well...
you sir are a trooper!
I've not seen so much patience in one person..
 
I have to be honest I started out with an open mind but I am starting to doubt the X theory.

Sorry to those who believe in it but if it fails once it could be a mistake or lack of hand-eye coordination, twice....but it has now failed me twice when going for the RX7 and about 4 times in the experiment.

It will always seem to work 1 in 4 goes but if no more than that then (blows raspberry).

At the dream car series I am down to a couple of car/colour combinations needed out of about 19 so there is still room for experimentation.

At the Altezza series I want 1 Altezza and 2 X540s. I have 2 Vitz already - 1 for testing and the other to race with when I feel I can beat those #$^$%^.

So more experiments will come where I predict there will be a very clear cut result against the X theory. We have all had saved games where our car just will not come up. I predict that will happen even with the X button in use. Time will tell.

I am still documenting my endurance race results here in post #21. This can be seen as a long term "random" experiment. I must say that as far as the actual prize car is concerned it is certainly panning out as a 1 in 4 chance. I just hope the colours start turning my way. I just noticed that Seattle has given me 2 colours recently and since that is a short race I may concentrate on that some more.
 
I'll give you a tip. The good drivers (read those who are capable of getting their S license) don't care much for stats.

Then there are those like me who in the GT world get to about 88% complete and then have nothing else to live for but stats oh and nice colourful cars #$^#$^ enduros.

One of these days I will get back onto those pills, calm down and get my S license.

Until then stats, stats, stats
 

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