Russian Invasion of Ukraine

[BobK]

Meanwhile the US, which has enough financial problems of its own, is packaging up a billion dollars in aid for the Ukraine. The cynic in me wonders if foreknowledge of this in some way helped drive events in the Crimea.

 

[Boone]

Meanwhile the US, which has enough financial problems of its own, is packaging up a billion dollars in aid for the Ukraine. The cynic in me wonders if foreknowledge of this in some way helped drive events in the Crimea.

1.5 Billion or only 1 billion? What's a few billion dollars between friends?

 

[Dotini]

1.5 Billion or only 1 billion? What's a few billion dollars between friends?

Ukraine is in truly terrible financial and economic condition. Ukraine has stated it needs $38 billion in emergency loans over the next two years. It's said the Ukraine oligarchs have pocketed hundreds of billions over the last few years. Do you see these oligarchs loaning their money to their new government?? It is to laugh. These oligarchs will resist reforms which reduce the corruption they thrive upon. The US loans will be contingent on some degree of corruption reform. So you see it is a true mess.

No one in their right mind is willing to lend them more than a billion or two, since there is no assurance their government will still be in existence next month. The revolution has not stopped.

 

[TenEightyOne]

No one in their right mind is willing to lend them more than a billion or two, since there is no assurance their government will still be in existence next month. The revolution has not stopped.

It's not that simple; if a 'new' Ukraine wants to align with a market then it would honour the 'old' Ukraine's debts. None of it is actually real money anyway, it's all conceptual. Man.

Besides, the parliament remains in place and may well be reelected, obviously a President will be elected too but that doesn't actually change the country.

Crimea would become a 'new' country if it were separately governed and sought to have its independence recognised.

In short, countries can't just change their names and drop their debts like backstreet garages can

 

[Touring Mars]

In short, countries can't just change their names and drop their debts like backstreet garages can

 

[Dotini]

It's not that simple; if a 'new' Ukraine wants to align with a market then it would honour the 'old' Ukraine's debts. None of it is actually real money anyway, it's all conceptual. Man.

Besides, the parliament remains in place and may well be reelected, obviously a President will be elected too but that doesn't actually change the country.

Crimea would become a 'new' country if it were separately governed and sought to have its independence recognised.

In short, countries can't just change their names and drop their debts like backstreet garages can

Precisely. Whomever is sitting the throne in Kiev when the revolutionary music stops will be responsible for the accumulated national debt.

 

[DK]

There's a perfectly sensible reason for this, but it still looks amusing

Ukraine crisis: Sevastopol ships 'defended' with mattresses

That takes "going to the mattresses" to a whole new level.

Also, I found this explanation on Reddit about what's happening in Ukraine. (language warning)

 

[TenEightyOne]

That takes "going to the mattresses" to a whole new level.

Also, I found this explanation on Reddit about what's happening in Ukraine. (language warning)

Interesting page; I hadn't seen the theory that a Russian-controlled Crimea would prevent Ukraine from entering NATO. Thinking it through, if both areas form elected parliament (I know, I know) then Ukraine would still be eligible to join NATO, I think?

 

[Dotini]

Interesting page; I hadn't seen the theory that a Russian-controlled Crimea would prevent Ukraine from entering NATO. Thinking it through, if both areas form elected parliament (I know, I know) then Ukraine would still be eligible to join NATO, I think?

Getting Ukraine into NATO has long been a dream of the Neocons. Note that Victoria (F- the EU) Nuland is married to Neocon notable Robert Kagan. It is alleged that an agreement signed between the US and Russia upon the breakup of the USSR would prohibit Western military expansion so far into Russia's sphere. But it is questionable how much validity those agreements retain today.


NATO in Ukraine would of course be an absolutely unacceptable existential threat to Russia. Hence its steps to preclude that are understandable.

 

[TenEightyOne]

Russian TV host gives her pro-Ukrainian views, the broadcaster (RT?) say they support her right to give her opinion in full.

They've even offered to fly her to Crimea to investigate her views further, at what they (rather worryingly) call the "epicentre"

 

[Rage Racer]

EDIT: Some shooting as Ukrainian troops march (singing, clearly making a statement) towards Russian-friendly troops. The 'Russian' troops are firing warning shots over the Ukrainian's heads. About 80 people involved all together, not quite Armageddon, and the singing was a bit flat.

This?

Edit: added the full version of the video.

They appear to be a pro-Russia militia. The Russian military presence might be there to reign those militia in as much as they are trying to protect the Russians from anti-Russian supporters.

I wonder if "militia" truns out to be Russian soldiers. Cause I am yet to see actual militia there.
Heard a couple reports like that before and in no case shooters were actually spotted.

This "militia" has a GAZ Tigr car having Russian black plates with code 21 - North Caucasus Military District.
Russian Ground Forces. This "militia" has even Ka-52 helicopters, lol.

 

[TenEightyOne]

This "militia" has a GAZ Tigr car having Russian black plates with code 21 - North Caucasus Military District.
Russian Ground Forces. This "militia" has even Ka-52 helicopters, lol.

That's the one

'Militia' doesn't mean 'untrained' though, if the UK were to suddenly split geographically then the people trained to use
military equipment would do so. Out of control of Westminster Command they'd use all the equipment that they have normal access to. Some of those people would be full-time military personnel but others would be reservists (just as qualified, just not full-time). All would presumably make use of the 'liberated' equipment and bases.

I know that Crimea is very different to that example; I'm just making the point that 'militia' can be a shifting definition, and it's even harder to find the right words when there are several military/civilian/Crimean/Russian/Ukrainian factions at work, some engaged in pure civil defense and others in military manoeuvrings.

 

[Boone]

Could someone explain what exactly is happening in this video?

 

[TenEightyOne]

Could someone explain what exactly is happening in this video?

They've gone "Full McCartney".

 

[SMfan]

Could someone explain what exactly is happening in this video?

Ukrainians play some football outside while Russians watch.

 

[Boone]

They've gone "Full McCartney".

Give peas a chance?

 

[SMfan]

They've gone "Full McCartney".

Uh, no.
As I said:

Ukrainians play some football outside while Russians watch.

 

[TenEightyOne]

Uh, no.
As I said:

Yes, the likelihood of Full McCartney at this point in proceedings is low, and my reply was in jest

 

[SMfan]

Yes, the likelihood of Full McCartney at this point in proceedings is low, and my reply was in jest

Oh, cool.
I realized that, but then I wanted to make things clear to someone who might not understand what the vid is about.

 

[Rage Racer]

Uh, no.
As I said:

I guess he means a fraternization episode like in World War I.
During that Christmas night, the British sodiers were playing football with German.

Yes, the likelihood of Full McCartney at this point in proceedings is low, and my reply was in jest

Unfortunately, there are only Ukrainians playing here...

 

[TenEightyOne]

BBC- Russia 'test-fires ICBM'

The BBC do point out that testing of this type isn't unusual but that the timing is obviously unfortunate.

Russia could say it's business-as-usual of course, but this will drive speculation, hype, and will ultimately increase tension through the media. That leads to a greater potential for flashpoint outbreaks of violence.

EDIT: The more I read about the test the less worried I am about the effect of anything other than the inevitable (and potentially incendiary) mis-reporting.

 

[Rage Racer]

Oh, Topol RS-12M. Can't wait to get a 1:72 model of the launcher vehicle. ^_^

 

[Dhalism]

when i asked my ukrainian friend about how a "nationalistic" organization like Una Unso could fight on the side of chechen rebels he told me the following anecdote:

Ukrainian rebel/nationalist gets on a bus in Kiev and asks in russian "What time it is?" A black man gets up and says "Quarter to three" The nationalist goes "Sit down son, I can see that you're not a Moskovite"

Now there are several things disturbing around this anecdote, chiefly the fact that the punchline is that it's supposed to be funny that he doesnt kill the black guy.

So while I am no fool and realize that safety of the Russian population is probably the last of their concerns I also can see that there is definitely truth behind Russians concerns of national security. That being said destabilizing Ukraine could turn very bad for everyone real soon, because rest assured considering the ties of Ukrainian paramilitary organizations with the jihadists Ukraine will become a hotbed of terrorism right in the midst of Europe.

When asking the same Ukrainian friend if he's gonna take up in arms to defend Crimea he told me "no way they themselves want to join Russia." So i think the optimal resolution of the conflict is there. The question is will politicians be satisfied with that or are there more ulterior motives to be pursued.

 

[Rage Racer]

Ukrainian rebel/nationalist gets on a bus in Kiev and asks in russian "What time it is?" A black man gets up and says "Quarter to three" The nationalist goes "Sit down son, I can see that you're not a Moskovite"

Now there are several things disturbing around this anecdote, chiefly the fact that the punchline is that it's supposed to be funny that he doesnt kill the black guy.

Haha, I know that one. But it's not offending, it's just a joke. We have similar "black humour" jokes about Ukrainians there too (e.g. regarding the Chernobyl disaster, etc.).

That being said destabilizing Ukraine could turn very bad for everyone real soon, because rest assured considering the ties of Ukrainian paramilitary organizations with the jihadists Ukraine will become a hotbed of terrorism right in the midst of Europe.

Jihadists? In Ukraine? Err, Crimean Tatars are the only large group of Muslims here (also some amount of Chechens living mostly in Crimea, too). But as long as the Russian troops are there, terrorist activity is veeeery unlikely.

 

[prisonermonkeys]

I see John Kerry keeps calling on Russia to work with Kiev. I find it strange that he is not calling on Kiev to work with Russia, given that pro-EU supporters overthrew the government because they were unhappy with moves toward Russia.

considering the ties of Ukrainian paramilitary organizations with the jihadists Ukraine will become a hotbed of terrorism right in the midst of Europe.

That is a statement that you are going to need to qualify.

 

[TenEightyOne]

The Russians have invaded Ireland and are using brainwashing on the citizens. Or there was a technical glitch during the news, one or the other.

 

[Rage Racer]

****, I'm starting to get proud of the Evil Empire being reborn again.
Invading here, invading there, give a **** about any international laws or human rights.

 

[Dotini]

This article is from the libertarian rag, Antiwar.com

As US Threatens, EU Pushes for Mediation in Crimea
Document: Britain Opposes Sanctions Against Russia
by Jason Ditz, March 03, 2014
The Obama Administration’s response to the Crimean secession crisis has been threats and more threats, but while they present the world as united against Russia, the reality is that the EU is very uncomfortable with the US bellicosity.

The US is promising sanctions, travel bans, and asset seizures. There was even some talk of military action, with Secretary of State John Kerry and others saying “all options are on the table” over the Crimea.

The European Union’s foreign ministers have met on the issue, and they’re counseling restraint, urging mediation by the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) to settle the territorial dispute.

And while the EU left open the idea of sanctions in principle, a British government document shows that Britain, usually America’s de facto voice in Europe, is loudly opposed to sanctions against Russia.

The reason is simple: Russia is an important business partner for much of Europe. London is a key hub for Russian investment, and Russia is about the only nearby source of oil and gas that isn’t already closed by sanctions (Syria and Iran), or a complete disaster (Libya).

 

[TenEightyOne]

... a British government document shows that Britain, usually America’s de facto voice in Europe, is loudly opposed to sanctions against Russia...

Not at all, it showed one point of view being presented at an early strategy meeting.

Otherwise the British government certainly aren't showing a lot of public interest; today's statements were squeaked out by Little Billy Hague, (or **** The Younger) while DavCam used his Very Serious Face to nod at a van assembly-line somewhere in the West Midlands.

 

[Dotini]

Not at all, it showed one point of view being presented at an early strategy meeting.

Otherwise the British government certainly aren't showing a lot of public interest; today's statements were squeaked out by Little Billy Hague, (or **** The Younger) while DavCam used his Very Serious Face to nod at a van assembly-line somewhere in the West Midlands.

LONDON (AP) — A British government document caught by a photographer's lens suggests that officials there are against imposing economic sanctions on Russia, a position which could complicate any U.S. effort to isolate Moscow over its military advances on Ukraine.

The document, captured by a photographer outside the British prime minister's Downing Street office as it was carried in by an adviser, says Britain "should not support for now trade sanctions or close London's financial center to Russians," according to the BBC, which first reported the blooper Monday.

It's not clear whether the document presents a settled U.K. position or just the view of one set of officials within government.

Britain's views on sanctions are important in part because London is a key hub for Russian investment.

Downing Street had no immediate comment.
http://www.seattlepi.com/news/world...courages-talk-of-Russia-sanctions-5284913.php