Russian Invasion of Ukraine

  • Thread starter Rage Racer
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Keef
I don't know why this bothers me but my instinct says that Finland should be the one to do it first, if not simultaneously. Finland is the easier target for Russia. If Finland can get in then it proves that anyone can. The front-line countries joining first also allows less time for Russia to mount an effective offense to it since they'll immediately be met with resistance rather than having plenty of wiggle room in a buffer zone.
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Applying to join NATO and being a member of NATO are two very different things... although the process will no doubt be expedited, ratification alone could take months.

That said, Russia would be well advised not to invade Finland, even if it didn't apply to join NATO, but since when was Putin ever 'well advised'?
 
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Keef
I don't know why this bothers me but my instinct says that Finland should be the one to do it first, if not simultaneously. Finland is the easier target for Russia. If Finland can get in then it proves that anyone can. The front-line countries joining first also allows less time for Russia to mount an effective offense to it since they'll immediately be met with resistance rather than having plenty of wiggle room in a buffer zone.
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The whole process here in Sweden is deliberately set up so that Finland announces their decision before we decide what to do, because if Finland don’t join then there’s no majority in the Parliament for Sweden to join either. We go wherever Finland goes.

And I don’t think there’s anything Russia can do to prevent it. Attacking the EU would be suicide. Here's a quick and cheap graph of military spendings in 2022, note the logarithmic scale.

1652367779825.png
 
eran0004
The whole process here in Sweden is deliberately set up so that Finland announces their decision before we decide what to do, because if Finland don’t join then there’s no majority in the Parliament for Sweden to join either. We go wherever Finland goes.

And I don’t think there’s anything Russia can do to prevent it. Attacking the EU would be suicide. Here's a quick and cheap graph of military spendings in 2022, note the logarithmic scale.

View attachment 1149321
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I think an interesting data point here would be a breakdown of those figures that includes the military MAINTENANCE budget by region.

The icing on the cake would be graph contrasting the maintenance money in two containers, money actually spent on maintenance -vs- money stolen/misappropriated via corruption. I'm sure it happens everywhere to some degree, be it misappropriation of pencils or missiles, but am also certain that it's FAR more prolific in some regions versus others.

To me, this would help level-set the "expectation algorithms" when judging military prowess at the nation level.:D
 
The only countries left for Russia to try and attack towards the west without invoking Article 5 would be:
Moldova (if they really want to expand more of the breakaway region they have).

That's it. Anything else would require flying over NATO countries in order to attack a non-NATO member (Austria, Bosnia and Hergzovina, Switzerland, Serbia).
 
During the first month of the war, I was hoping for a ceasefire and a diplomatic settlement. I soon gave up on that hope as a lost cause.

But recently Germany, France and China (Scholz, Macron and Xi) have joined in a renewed effort for peace talks to prevent the conflict from "spinning out of control". Xi expressed concern over stability of transportation, energy supplies, supply chain and global finance.

 
Blitz24
The only countries left for Russia to try and attack towards the west without invoking Article 5 would be:
Moldova (if they really want to expand more of the breakaway region they have).

That's it. Anything else would require flying over NATO countries in order to attack a non-NATO member (Austria, Bosnia and Hergzovina, Switzerland, Serbia).
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The thought of Russia flying over NATO countries to attack Switzerland actually made me LOL IRL
 
MroczMR
This is a problem.

abcnews.go.com

Turkey's leader opposes letting Finland, Sweden join NATO

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan says his country is “not favorable” toward Finland and Sweden joining NATO
abcnews.go.com abcnews.go.com
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It's a problem to antagonize Putin further. There's really no need voluntarily escalate the situation. Unless you believe Putin's intention is purely aggressive/territorial and has nothing to do with NATO's expansion.
 
Carbonox
Kleptrocratic pieces of **** who start illegitimate invasions deserve every little antagonization.
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At the cost of hundreds of thousands of innocent lives in both countries? I understand the emotion behind this, but you need to have some restraint and think about the bigger picture.
 
axletramp
I guess I'm getting at Putin's continued gaslighting of NATO. Typical domestic abuse tactics - blaming the victim for the aggression.
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Russia is the promised land of domestic violence, so of course abuser logic is encouraged on a governmental level.
 
Roo
You're implying Putin isn't looking for ways to be antagonised. At this point I think he could find provocation in the phrase "good morning".
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Any country would feel antagonized if another country on its borders starts arming up. The situation is bad enough and I don't see any signs that Putin would invade Finalnd. Joining NATO at this point is just unnecessarily provacative. Remember what we say about police officers, it's better to de-escalate than escalate, even if the other person/party is in the wrong.
 
Roo
Despite going better than anyone thought it would, not joining NATO hasn't gone well for Ukraine. Probably best for Finland to get it done whilst Putin's occupied occupying.
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It wasn't due to the lack of trying. We'll never know what would've happened if Ukraine just agreed to be neutral, but it's a step that should've been taken. I'm not justifying what Putin did, but if he's the evil POS everyone thinks he is, why not just avoid the trouble? You don't see a bear in the woods and **** with it, even if you're armed and can kill it easily.
 
I understand the de-escalation argument regarding joining NATO, but Finland and Sweden do undoubtably feel the threat level from Russia has increased due to the invasion of Ukraine, a fellow non-NATO state. They are free to make these decisions whether Putin or anyone else likes it or not. This is about their own individual national security, not antagonising anyone. Remember, it's really only Putin who can de-escalate the threat, Finland and Sweden are just reacting.
 
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axletramp
Remember, it's really only Putin who can de-escalate the threat, Finland and Sweden are just reacting.
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You just said it yourself. They're reacting. I don't think they should unless there's iminent danger. They're of course free to do whatever they like, but it's a risky game and could end up causing an unnecessary death toll and for what? What does anyone gain out of this? Other than arms dealers..
 
R3V
They're of course free to do whatever they like, but it's a risky game and could end up causing an unnecessary death toll...
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Not sure I agree with that. To date, Russia hasn't backed up any threat beyond Ukraine. That's why their threats are always so vague.
 
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R3V
It wasn't due to the lack of trying. We'll never know what would've happened if Ukraine just agreed to be neutral, but it's a step that should've been taken. I'm not justifying what Putin did, but if he's the evil POS everyone thinks he is, why not just avoid the trouble? You don't see a bear in the woods and **** with it, even if you're armed and can kill it easily.
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We already do, and it's happening right now. It was a bull💩 excuse from the start, evidenced by the 'special military operation' moving ahead undaunted even AFTER it was announced/plainly known that they would not be joining NATO any time soon.

Saying "You can never join NATO because you're too close to me" is scarily akin to a preschool playground fight...which isn't gonna work-out when such petulance is backed-up with nuclear arms.

Finland/Sweden is 100% of Putin's doing. If he doesn't see it, that's for him and his therapist(s) to work out. And, yes, millions of people will pay the price for HIS narcissism, HIS ego and HIS mental illness.

Is the World to simply turn our backs and assume it'll just sort itself out? Are we to not look to the future's current trajectory with some level of concern/determination to course-correct?
 

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