Russian Invasion of Ukraine

  • Thread starter Rage Racer
  • 10,148 comments
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Jimlaad43
@Dennisch
The problem facing NATO with joining in the war is: "What is the aim of this war?"

Do they jump in with just the aim of forcing the Russians back to their borders and protecting Ukrainian sovereignty? Do that and what happens once they succeed? Get to the borders and sit there waiting, or continue past and try to expand Ukrainian territory.

Is the plan to oust Putin? He seems to be doing great propaganda in terms of brainwashing the populace, so any form of assassination or full on invasion or air strike on Moscow would just cause more pain than good.

And Russia itself is really difficult to invade. Ignoring the whole MAD issue, there is a lot of territory to cover, most of which is either impassable marshland or frozen wasteland for 75% of the year. Add to that the fact that Russia's military is well equipped and designed for internal defense (which is part of the reason it's so poor for invading), you're just looking at a long and bloody stalemate.

As we have seen also with the Chernobyl attack, Putin doesn't really care about the people he throws at the enemy as long as it gets an answer. If a NATO force, for example, lands in Mariupol to reliberate the city and move towards Donetsk, what's to stop Putin Nuking Mariupol and the NATO forces, then doing what he's always done in this war and claim the other side has done the warcrime his people have just commited?

Hell, if NATO decided to invade back, I can see him nuking Belgorod if they make it that far and telling the Russian People that NATO have thrown the nuke to get mass voluntary conscription going. Nuclear Scorched Earth is a tactic that could be very effective.

No NATO country wants to be the one that first joins in the war officially. If Poland joins in, you just know that all Nukes will be pointing towards Warsaw within minutes.

Chernobyl is a great place to throw a Nuke at too. Not many immediate kills, but he just needs to time it right with wind direction and all of Central and Western Europe is screwed. Belarus basically at that point becomes a Sacrifice Lord Farquaad is willing to make.
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Following this whole post, is it logical to assume the only reasonable course of action, should NATO step in, would be to erase
Russia's military capacity as quickly and aggressively as possible to prevent nuke launches?
 
Obelisk
Following this whole post, is it logical to assume the only reasonable course of action, should NATO step in, would be to erase
Russia's military capacity as quickly and aggressively as possible to prevent nuke launches?
Click to expand...
Impossible.

Apart from anything else, Russia has enough nuclear weapons on board submarines to wipe out an entire continent, so that idea is a non-starter.
 
Obelisk
Following this whole post, is it logical to assume the only reasonable course of action, should NATO step in, would be to erase
Russia's military capacity as quickly and aggressively as possible to prevent nuke launches?
Click to expand...
Russia had the entire Cold War to build up a robust nuclear capability. It's not easy to defang such a system. I'm pretty sure it can even be setup to retaliate automatically.

EDIT

Yep:

Dead Hand - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org en.wikipedia.org
 
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Putin is goading 'the other side' to launching the first nuke, or otherwise make an outright decleration of war, so the "history" books will read "See? It wasn't us who started it. They did. We were provoked."
 
Liquid
Putin is goading 'the other side' to launching the first nuke, or otherwise make an outright decleration of war, so the "history" books will read "See? It wasn't us who started it. They did. We were provoked."
Click to expand...
Yet if that were to transpire, there won't be any 'history books', nor anyone to read them...
 
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"Jun 14, 2022 Russia's Gazprom said it would be reducing the daily gas deliveries via the Nord Stream 1 pipeline to Germany to 100 million cubic meters per day. The energy giant cited delayed repair works by the German company Siemens. The pipeline runs from Russia to Germany. It can usually carry 167 million cubic meters, according to Gazprom. Nord Stream is the older of two gas pipelines for Russian gas to Germany. The newest project, Nord Stream 2, was put to a halt after Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Last month, a third of Russian gas that is piped to Europe through Ukraine was cut off when Kyiv suspended Russian gas flows via one of the two transit points."

 
Jimlaad43
@Dennisch
The problem facing NATO with joining in the war is: "What is the aim of this war?"

Do they jump in with just the aim of forcing the Russians back to their borders and protecting Ukrainian sovereignty? Do that and what happens once they succeed? Get to the borders and sit there waiting, or continue past and try to expand Ukrainian territory.

Is the plan to oust Putin? He seems to be doing great propaganda in terms of brainwashing the populace, so any form of assassination or full on invasion or air strike on Moscow would just cause more pain than good.

And Russia itself is really difficult to invade. Ignoring the whole MAD issue, there is a lot of territory to cover, most of which is either impassable marshland or frozen wasteland for 75% of the year. Add to that the fact that Russia's military is well equipped and designed for internal defense (which is part of the reason it's so poor for invading), you're just looking at a long and bloody stalemate.

As we have seen also with the Chernobyl attack, Putin doesn't really care about the people he throws at the enemy as long as it gets an answer. If a NATO force, for example, lands in Mariupol to reliberate the city and move towards Donetsk, what's to stop Putin Nuking Mariupol and the NATO forces, then doing what he's always done in this war and claim the other side has done the warcrime his people have just commited?

Hell, if NATO decided to invade back, I can see him nuking Belgorod if they make it that far and telling the Russian People that NATO have thrown the nuke to get mass voluntary conscription going. Nuclear Scorched Earth is a tactic that could be very effective.

No NATO country wants to be the one that first joins in the war officially. If Poland joins in, you just know that all Nukes will be pointing towards Warsaw within minutes.

Chernobyl is a great place to throw a Nuke at too. Not many immediate kills, but he just needs to time it right with wind direction and all of Central and Western Europe is screwed. Belarus basically at that point becomes a Sacrifice Lord Farquaad is willing to make.
Click to expand...
The only real/logical option for NATO, would be to limit the war to Ukraine, while pushing the russian forces back to Russia, and then staying in Ukraine to prevent any further attempt to invade. There's no point in going all in, it would be just a waste of resources and it would prolongate the war. And Russia is way to big to invade and "dethrone" Putin, as he would just leave to eastern Russia and hide somewhere.

NATO could very well just grant air superiority and air support to ukrainian troops, leaving the rest of the fight to the ukrainians.

The problem is, once Russia starts losing, and the ego of their leadership gets hit, they could just go with the nuclear option. Or, they could do the opposite, as there's no point in assuring their own country's complete destruction as "vengeance" for a loss in Ukraine. The real question is, how much common sense is there in Russia, and if someone was ready to "press the button", would someone stop it.

As for a possible attack against Lithuania and the rest of the baltic states which are part of NATO: it's hard to know if NATO would respond accordingly. But, the political implications would be too big to just sit and watch, as no one would take NATO serious, not even it's members, which would lead to it's collapse, and it would mean that everyone is on their own, to face Russia or any other threat.
I assume that whoever is in power at that time, will grow a pair.
 
Inch by bloody inch, the strong UKR salient in Donbas is being slowly pinched off. The major roads and waterways are defining the battle. Ammunition, reinforcements and new weapons are badly needed.

 
inCloud
St. Petersburg International Economic Forum 2022 guests:
  • Taliban (terrorist organisation)
  • Sex doll Dunia, replica of miss Perm 2014

Amazing
Click to expand...
Is the sex doll going to talk about the benefits of a legalized red light district?
 
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Ukraine will not be able to host Eurovision next year, the first time since 1980 that it was not hosted by the defending winners.
20220617_112838.jpg
 
My third Ukrainian Night in Bratislava. Far fewer people this time (10) than last time (35) but I have always said from the first instance that I don't care how many people turn up, I care if the people actually there have a great time. My two friends (see below) said that this evening was great because, unusually, there were no mothers with children so we could all relax a little bit more; them listening to me speaking Slovak and them answering in fractured Slovak with Ukrainian vocab. Honestly, for me as the 'outsider' it was brilliant and for those pictured. I have first-hand knowledge that having someone to talk to on this Friday evening made a world of difference. The chat went deeper, more intimate and these strangers to 'my' town had an incredible evening which, after we were done, was complimented by regularly scheduled live music.

20220617_202352.jpg


This is (L-R) my friends Tamara and Ksenia, the workhorses behind this who already lived here and have put in so much effort and been so appreciative, and me, whose idea this was and who picks up the tab. Sod it, it's only money and everyone who has come to our events has left mentally stronger and personally refreshed. That is what is worth it.

20220617_195852.jpg


A bar acquaintence told me that he donated one of his multiple guitars to an aspiring 13 year-old Ukrainian musician who had to leave her things behind. Honestly, please, I know I am preaching from a paradoxically indivious position but please do something, anything, if you can.
 
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Blitz24
Which means Poland and Finland are next as well with Georgia soon to follow. If NATO doesn't act at all if one of the members are attacked, the alliance is meaningless and there's nothing to stop Putin from trying to go establish a land border with Germany (other than running out of money or soldiers).


On top of this, if Putin indeed only has a few years left, why should he care who survives and dies a nuclear Holocaust, he'll be dead in a few years so might as well take out as many people as he can to die with him.
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No, this war will take years to be decided.
 
a61zd5L_460s.jpg


At this point I am convinced that Russia is governed by a bunch of special people who have trouble wiping their own ass.
 
It's like they want Kaliningrad followed by Moscow to get glassed because they're too afraid of losing face by backing down for a change.
 
Dennisch
a61zd5L_460s.jpg


At this point I am convinced that Russia is governed by a bunch of special people who have trouble wiping their own ass.
Click to expand...
Looks like Russia is trying to find an excuse to invade Lithuania. I'm not sure if "dictating what a country does within its own borders" is a good reason but they used that for Ukraine (and Georgia and others) so...
 

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