Russian Invasion of Ukraine

[Eunos_Cosmo]

A Russian nuclear weapon strike would all but kill any Iran sanctions relief deal. It will also allow Iran to openly support Russia and try to quickly finish up a weapon to stir up problems in the Mideast.

The Iranian population won't support a fully mobilized war (the revolts would be huge and probably topple the government) and the IRGC doesn't have the resources to sustain one themselves. The regime would like a nuclear weapon to protect itself (not the nation) like DPRK regime, but they aren't stupid enough to start a conflict they know they will lose (such as starting a war with Israel which would bring down the NATO hammer hard). Regime has big enough problems domestically, and all hell will break loose when the Ayatollah dies. I think Iran is content to sell Russia some cheap drones.

 

[Blitz24]

The Iranian population won't support a fully mobilized war (the revolts would be huge and probably topple the government) and the IRGC doesn't have the resources to sustain one themselves. The regime would like a nuclear weapon to protect itself (not the nation) like DPRK regime, but they aren't stupid enough to start a conflict they know they will lose (such as starting a war with Israel which would bring down the NATO hammer hard). Regime has big enough problems domestically, and all hell will break loose when the Ayatollah dies. I think Iran is content to sell Russia some cheap drones.

Israel isn't part of NATO so that wouldn't necessarily occur. I've heard rumors the ayatollah isn't well but I haven't seen it confirmed anywhere. One would hope that Iranians would come to topple their leaders just like Russians should, but I doubt either would happen.

 

[inCloud]

Both Iranian and Russian regimes are kinda stable. You can look at Venezuela and even their regime somehow alive and RF/Iran are in waaaay better shape.

I am talking about uprising, changes in elites possible, ofc.

 

[Eunos_Cosmo]

Israel isn't part of NATO so that wouldn't necessarily occur.

US would declare war on Iran almost assuredly and that could very likely lead to Article 5 being triggered. I doubt NATO would bother to mobilize, but it wouldn't matter much. All I'm saying is that it won't happen because the Iranian regime really likes the power they have domestically and won't jeopardize it on a suicide mission.

I've heard rumors the ayatollah isn't well but I haven't seen it confirmed anywhere. One would hope that Iranians would come to topple their leaders just like Russians should, but I doubt either would happen.

Dude is old. I could see it happening in Iran before Russia, as the government has almost no support from the middle class. Prior to the Ukraine shenanigans, Putin was still broadly liked in Russia (or at least thats how it appears from the outside) and his administration still felt plausibly credible. The difference is that everyone in Iran knows they are in a sham theocratic dictatorship with zero ability to maintain a functioning economy. The Green revolution was very close to threatening the government, at least more so than any large scale protest I remember in Russia. The Iranian government has perfected the art of toeing the line of repression - too much repression risks a boiling up of anger. That's why they don't go after people using satellite dishes for instance and people tend to have more freedom in practice than they do on paper.

 

[Scaff]

US would declare war on Iran almost assuredly and that could very likely lead to Article 5 being triggered.

Article 5 wouldn't cover that, it's a mutual defence agreement, not mutual offence.

 

[Carbonox]

Ukraine Says Arrested Russian Teachers in Regained Areas - The Moscow Times

Moscow confirmed Tuesday the arrests of Russian teachers who had been deployed to northeastern Ukraine after Kyiv's forces recaptured swathes of the region from Russia in a lightning counteroffensive.

www.themoscowtimes.com

These prisoners could well be Ukraine's best shot at gathering intel on all the kidnapped kids, though I should add that sanctions against the orcs ought to only escalate until everyone's accounted for and removed from their present day abusers in Russia.

 

[O604]

Oil experts estimate Russia's attepmt to blackmail Europe has backfired.

"Ultimately, Gazprom has been hit the worst by Putin’s decision to maximize energy pressure on the EU, as the energy company can only burn the redundant gas in huge flares, while during winter, it will have to shut down many production facilities effectively destroying key assets . The Kremlin may entertain fantasies about redirecting gas flows from the Yamal fields to China, but it will take years to lay the necessary pipelines, and Beijing shows no interest in funding these projects"

Russia’s Energy Blackmail Is Backfiring | OilPrice.com

Putin has ordered the shutdown of the Nord Stream One gas pipeline too early, giving the EU plenty of time to prepare for emergencies

oilprice.com

 

[inCloud]

Shulman about latest elactions - support of war doesn't provide additional support, but does opposite.

Ukraine Says Arrested Russian Teachers in Regained Areas - The Moscow Times

Moscow confirmed Tuesday the arrests of Russian teachers who had been deployed to northeastern Ukraine after Kyiv's forces recaptured swathes of the region from Russia in a lightning counteroffensive.

www.themoscowtimes.com

These prisoners could well be Ukraine's best shot at gathering intel on all the kidnapped kids, though I should add that sanctions against the orcs ought to only escalate until everyone's accounted for and removed from their present day abusers in Russia.

AFAIK, Ukraine officials said that didn't capture russian teachers, only collaborators

Oil experts estimate Russia's attepmt to blackmail Europe has backfired.

"Ultimately, Gazprom has been hit the worst by Putin’s decision to maximize energy pressure on the EU, as the energy company can only burn the redundant gas in huge flares, while during winter, it will have to shut down many production facilities effectively destroying key assets . The Kremlin may entertain fantasies about redirecting gas flows from the Yamal fields to China, but it will take years to lay the necessary pipelines, and Beijing shows no interest in funding these projects"

Russia’s Energy Blackmail Is Backfiring | OilPrice.com

Putin has ordered the shutdown of the Nord Stream One gas pipeline too early, giving the EU plenty of time to prepare for emergencies

oilprice.com

AFAIK, last month was worst out of last 14 for gazprom

 

[inCloud]

Zelenskiy in 🍇

 

[Liquid]

I want to reiterate my admiration for Zelenskij. I know he has been a political activist and interested in politics for some time but he isn't a traditional, "professional" politician.

And yet despite that and being thrust into global recognition and a war of extermination of his country, he remains bold, resolute and determined in the face of cowardice, jealousy and brutality.

 

[Dennisch]

 

[JKgo]

Well, there goes another one. DJ Khaled gif, where are you?

 

[Blitz24]

Far East Flopping off the deck.

 

[RacingGrandpa]

and that could very likely lead to Article 5 being triggered.

No. Only if USA was attacked it would trigger article 5.
NATO is a defence pact. Members of NATO has gone to war several times since 1949 without triggering article 5

 

[Tornado]

Putin's limo blowing a tire is the laziest false flag yet.

 

[Dennisch]

He needs a HiMars. In the face.

 

[inCloud]

Evgeniy Prigojin hiring contractors in russian prison. Few hundreds rubles and pardon after half year. Death sentence for deserters. Heavy weaponry and aviation in control of Wagner PMC.

Rumours saying few prisoners were hired from colony where Navalniy imprisoned.

 

[Dennisch]

So, Russia makes room in their prisons for political opponents by sending the criminals to die in Ukraine. I doubt those ****ers will see any battlefield training at all.

 

[inCloud]

****ers will see any battlefield training at all

Actually, its not that bad. There are few prisons converted into boot camps with kinda intense training program. If you compare it to actual military training in RF, it could be good.

Krivoy Rog flooded after another terrorist attack against Ukrainian infrastructure (dam).

 

[Touring Mars]

Absolute cowards the lot of them.

No wonder morale is so low within the Russian armed forces - it can't be easy to keep your spirits up when you know that you are the filth of humanity.

 

[Jimlaad43]

Honestly I'm amazed it's taken this long for a dam to be attacked. The Dnipro River through the centre of Ukraine has 6 significant dams with full reservoirs behind them, and a burst dam is a phenomenal way to cause significant and very fast unstoppable destruction. Russia have proven themselves to be desperate and vengeful on the Ukrainian population, rather than military targets, so I fear we will see dams be targeted in the future. Want to drop a Nuke on Kiev without throwing a Nuke? Just bomb the Kiev dam and let the water do similarly catastrophic damage. Or "Oh no, the damage to the Zaporizhzhia dam has flooded that Nuclear Power station the Ukrainians have clearly been using as a Military outpost".

Dambusting proved effective in WW2, when aimed at Military or Manufacturing targets (although the significant civilian loss of life is conveniently ignored...), And Ukraine has some very juicy ones. However, all of them being breached will only achieve civilian casualties and destruction of the population centres that Russia is trying to take over.

Cowards the lot of them.

 

[inCloud]

Honestly I'm amazed it's taken this long for a dam to be attacked.

All critical infrastructure covered by AA. If we talking about big dams, they vulnerable to tactical nukes or dozens ballistic missiles with explosives. Antonovskiy bridge still standing, even after hundreds GMLRS hits, dam is waaaay thicker than bridge.

 

[Liquid]

It's unbelievable how Russia has gone from believing it would be a three-day walkover to being so desperate for troops that they're conscripting prisoners who, let's face it, don't really have a say in the matter. In the space of what, six months? In terms of the speed of the collapse and how quickly the situation deteriorated, this is up there as being the biggest military disaster in history.

Death sentence for deserters.

 

[Carbonox]

Russia says longer-range U.S. missiles for Kyiv would cross red line

MOSCOW (Reuters) -Russia's Foreign Ministry said on Thursday that if the United States decided to supply Kyiv with longer-range missiles, it would cross a "red line" and become "a party to the conflict". In a briefing, Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova added that Russia "reserves the...

www.yahoo.com

Bark, bark. How many red lines have already been crossed again?

The protagonist of life mindset is fascinating. Zakharova cares more about the **** she took last night than Ukrainian territorial integrity, but as soon as a taste of their own medicine is served, or proposed to be served, it's the biggest offense in human history.

 

[AlexWilmot]

Hmmm TU 22M being prepped

 

[Obelisk]

Hmmm TU 22M being prepped

This likely had to do with the dam strike. this was yesterday.

 

[Joey D]

Hmmm TU 22M being prepped

Probably readying to launch Kinzhal missiles. Supposedly, Russia used the same weapons in Odesa.

 

[Eunos_Cosmo]

Just looking at google maps, I wonder if Russia was trying to flood the industrial zone and quarries south of Kryvyi Rih. The river runs VERY close to the edge of the quarries and it appears as though the area is a major steel manufacturing hub.

 

[Blood Eagle]

Just looking at google maps, I wonder if Russia was trying to flood the industrial zone and quarries south of Kryvyi Rih. The river runs VERY close to the edge of the quarries and it appears as though the area is a major steel manufacturing hub.

"Effects-Based Operation".

 

[Eunos_Cosmo]

Actually, I'm pretty sure this was about downriver Pontoon bridges and halting either Ukrainian supplies or Ukrainian movement. If that river is impassable from Kryvyi to Kherson, that would be really helpful for Russia, considering the zone they are putting the most effort to holding is east of that river. If I'm right, it would suggest that Russia is trying to creatively conserve resources (IE instead of blowing up individual pontoon bridges, taking them all out with a few missile strikes up river). Could be a smart move.