Russian Invasion of Ukraine
- Thread starter Rage Racer
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Hindsight is always 20/20 (or better). What should have tripped the trigger that this was yet another round of maskirovka was that Wagner "occupied" Rostov with, at most, minimal resistance.
Tired Tyres
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- Tired Tyres
I predict Prigozhin falling out of a four story window sometime soon.
- 2,940
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I imagine Prigozhin's entire goal was to simply tell the Russian military command "you need us more than we need you, now how about those extra resources we keep asking you for". Any idea that they would have made any realistic advance on Moscow with only an estimated 25,000 total troops and limited air power is a bit silly.
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Putin is clearly struggling now that he is fighting both a stand-up comedian and a hot dog salesman... 🌭
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ROAD_DOGG33J
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I can't see it ending any other way, perhaps falling on some bullets. Even if Putin needs him, this must be Putin's default option. It makes me wonder why Prigozhin took the deal and what it is.
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- eran0004
Prigozhin probably made a gamble that Putin would listen to his demands and replace the military leadership. When he didn’t, Prigozhin’s only way out would be to try to make a deal, because he probably knew that a coup would be impossible without the support of the military and/or the people.
What’s funny about this whole business is that the pro-Putin Twitter trolls are trying really hard to spin this thing into yet another example of Putin’s brilliant sense of strategy and tactics (yes, the term 5D chess is actually being used). Allegedly, it was all just smoke and mirrors, a secret plan to redeploy Wagner to Belarus, from where they would be closer to Kiev. Yes, faking a coup, a national crisis and creating widespread panic just to move your own troops from point A and about halfway to point B through your own territory and making sure that the whole world is watching every step along the way. Brilliant.
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- dacc10
And destroy a few aircraft along the way? Usually these false flag operations, tend be based on "the end justifies the means", and at this point, I don't see an end that justified all this. It's not like they blew up some random inhabited building.
Plus, this whole thing, split the russian population quite a bit.
But, I'm also being rational, which could be my mistake given who we are dealing with.
Plus, this whole thing, split the russian population quite a bit.
But, I'm also being rational, which could be my mistake given who we are dealing with.
inCloud
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From what I seen yesterday, both was available to Prigojin. Three big cities with 2.5 million of population was taken in one day without any resistance. Population was, at least, not hostile to Wagner forces(more like friendly).
Looks like Lukashenko piss his pants after coup and Tihanovskaya statement and Prigojin will be second person in Belarus in foreseeable future. For both its "a bird in the hand is worth two in the bush".
For Putler it was big hit in the nuts. Naked king situation.
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- 5,207
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I don't think Prigozhin is going to live a long happy life, he made the most powerful people in Russia look like cowardly inept fools. I mean, even more than they managed themselves before all this.
It all more or less started with a Russian missile attack on Wagner, that was most likely a botched assassination attempt on Prighozin. Plans were to assimilate Wagner into regular Russian army to stop Prighozin from becoming too powerful, thats probably why they did not supply him with ammunition anymore - basically making Prigozhin powerless and useless - and he could not allow that thats why he went for Moscow.
Putin pissed his pants and feared for Moscow so Lukashenko probably offered him amnesty and maybe a place among his cabinet, probably as minister of defense or some role in the military?
In any case, with Wagner troops getting absorbed into the regular army I see no reason why Russia would not suicide him in some way.
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- 2,940
- Columbus, Ohio
Unsurprisingly, all the usual clickbait sites are shouting about how Putin has pulled a "classic false flag" with the whole Wagner situation.
I thought the point of a false flag operation was to fool your enemy, not look like a fool.
I thought the point of a false flag operation was to fool your enemy, not look like a fool.
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Things starting to make kind of sense now with regards to the "Deal" Lukashenko was involved in. July 1st was the deadline for the order for all forces fighting for Russia outside of the Regular RU Forces to sign and agree to go under control of the Russian MOD.
If Wagner wasn't signed over to the Russian Command before July 1st they would have (apparently) been forced to cease operations.
(I would liked to have seen how the Russian MOD were going to manage that) 😄
Lukashenko offered to allow Wagner to operate from Belarus to allow them to stay under control of Prighozin past the deadline if they cease the Thunder Run towards Moscow.
Ofcourse I don't 100% believe anything about Russia. This atleast makes sense for multiple reasons though.
If Wagner wasn't signed over to the Russian Command before July 1st they would have (apparently) been forced to cease operations.
(I would liked to have seen how the Russian MOD were going to manage that) 😄
Lukashenko offered to allow Wagner to operate from Belarus to allow them to stay under control of Prighozin past the deadline if they cease the Thunder Run towards Moscow.
Ofcourse I don't 100% believe anything about Russia. This atleast makes sense for multiple reasons though.
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- 11,847
- Marin County
So basically, he was at risk of losing his lucrative PMC. If there was ever a deeply post-Soviet Russian motivation to start a mutiny, there it is. I was silly to think of it as a Psyops...it was business negotiation.
edit: I've heard from other sources (I don't have any evidence) that FSB apparently either had Prig's family or at least the location of his family, which may be why this whole thing ended so abruptly.
edit: I've heard from other sources (I don't have any evidence) that FSB apparently either had Prig's family or at least the location of his family, which may be why this whole thing ended so abruptly.
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Keef
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Bad guys never seem to think about that part. They really think in the age of satellites and credit cards and the internet that the powers that be don't know where everybody associated with VIPs are at all times? Jeez.
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Even before then they were really good at finding out that sort of thing since spying and intel gathering on everyone, especially their own people, was where most of the Soviet budget went for about four decades or so. It's just cheaper and quicker now that everything has a digital paper trail attached to it.
SestoScudo
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Ukrainian debacle has also led to Wagner drawing down its numbers abroad.
More like Prigozin is pissed because needs those men to loot diamonds.
More like Prigozin is pissed because needs those men to loot diamonds.
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