Russian Invasion of Ukraine

  • Thread starter Rage Racer
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There's something odd going on with planes over the Black Sea at the moment, because I'm pretty sure this KLM flight didn't go in these directions on its way to Osaka...

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So I think that's just ADS-B's best guess as to where the plane is based on satellite data. I'm a frequent browser of the reddit r/ADSB and this regularly comes out. Apparently, the antenna coverage in that part of the world is sketchy, and the system tries to fill in the blanks. It's likely that civilian planes aren't Leroy Jenkinsing across an active war zone...especially since the orcs enjoy shooting down passenger aircraft.
 
So I think that's just ADS-B's best guess as to where the plane is based on satellite data. I'm a frequent browser of the reddit r/ADSB and this regularly comes out. Apparently, the antenna coverage in that part of the world is sketchy, and the system tries to fill in the blanks. It's likely that civilian planes aren't Leroy Jenkinsing across an active war zone...especially since the orcs enjoy shooting down passenger aircraft.
Yes quite, however it's still a little... suddenly odd. As if there's some kind of signal jamming occurring.

The IL-76 also vanished just west of Donetsk.
 
So I think that's just ADS-B's best guess as to where the plane is based on satellite data. I'm a frequent browser of the reddit r/ADSB and this regularly comes out. Apparently, the antenna coverage in that part of the world is sketchy, and the system tries to fill in the blanks. It's likely that civilian planes aren't Leroy Jenkinsing across an active war zone...especially since the orcs enjoy shooting down passenger aircraft.
Is there any way to fix this or is it that everyone except for these satellites know where the plane really is and we shouldn't be too concerned?
 
Yes quite, however it's still a little... suddenly odd. As if there's some kind of signal jamming occurring.

The IL-76 also vanished just west of Donetsk.
It might be due to some jamming, but I spend an unreasonable amount of time almost every day watching ADS-B feeds, and it's been like that since before the war began. FlightAware has a write-up on how it determines positions:

I see a handful of estimates put planes over warzones daily. It shows Russian planes in European airspace, too, even though that airspace is closed, or Israeli-originating planes flying over Tehran (which I don't think would happen).
Is there any way to fix this or is it that everyone except for these satellites know where the plane really is and we shouldn't be too concerned?
ADS-B feeds rely on volunteers to have an antenna and feed the data. There's probably not much that can be done without having more people in the area have bigger and better antennas. You can build on out of a Raspberry Pi. I've been slowly trying to figure out what the hell I'm doing with one for the past few months but my knowledge with a Raspberry Pi is slim to none.
 
While you right, there is still Putin that thinks otherwise. Both Georgia and Ukraine happens after they publicly declared that they want to join NATO. There is possibility, that whole thing wouldn't happen if they didn't.
I don’t think he sees it any other way. He wants to dominate his neighbours and he knows that a NATO membership won’t let him and that’s why he’s against it. He is not dumb enough to think that NATO wants to invade Russia.

Sure, it’s very possible that neither Georgia nor Ukraine would have been occupied if they showed loyalty to Putin, but the fact that they didn’t doesn’t mean that they have any blame for what happened next. That blame lies entirely on Putin.
He fueled it, but not created. There wasn't any plans to invade Ukraine since Crimea was taken and until 2021 when he finally realised that Minsk agreements never would start working.
No he definitely created it. The whole separatist movement in eastern Ukraine is Putin’s work.
It doesn't make him any better, but we should understand why he did what he did. Because he still here and still making moves.
Hitler complex, by the looks of it.
Let's play devil's advocate. How many already died? 200.000? 300.000? How many would die if Zelenskiy run in Poland in 2022? My guess, is few thousands. What is worse - horror without end or horrible end?
Sure, let’s play devil’s advocate. How many would die when Putin continues by invading Moldova? How many would die when Putin invades Georgia? How many would die when Putin invades Lithuania? How many would die when Putin invades Sweden? How many would die when Putin invades Poland?

At what point do you stop surrendering to Putin in that scenario?
 
Yes quite, however it's still a little... suddenly odd. As if there's some kind of signal jamming occurring.

The IL-76 also vanished just west of Donetsk.
ADS-B spoofing has bee done by the Rooskies for years now. It appears they're flying in planes to evacuate their people in the region, probably because they think that's safer than loading up the Kerch bridge with cars and trains full of people. They're spoofing so Ukraine can't easily track the planes and shoot them down, not that Ukraine would stoop as low as Russia does.
 
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And why can't Russia join NATO again
Cause you need agreement of all members and there are too many that don't want to?
He is not dumb enough to think that NATO wants to invade Russia.
Sweet summer child
that they have any blame for what happened next. That blame lies entirely on Putin.
There is responsibility and blame. Its Ukrainian politicians responsibility to prevent aggression from RF and save their electorate. Blame entirely on Putin.
No he definitely created it. The whole separatist movement in eastern Ukraine is Putin’s work.
You don't need to separate when whole country is in you hands. There were tension between west and east Ukraine. Crimean problem was a thing since 1991.

Hitler complex, by the looks of it.
Its not.
How many would die when Putin continues by invading Moldova
He wouldn't, Moldova exactly where he wants it to be.
How many would die when Putin invades Georgia
He already did it, why he would do that again?
How many would die when Putin invades Lithuania
He wouldn't, because NATO.
How many would die when Putin invades Sweden
wat?
How many would die when Putin invades Poland?
wat?
At what point do you stop surrendering to Putin in that scenario?
Ukraine wasn't part of NATO, no one aside from Ukraine would surrender in this scenario. Hell, US was happy to give Ukraine to Putin when they offered plane for Zelenskiy.
 
You have no idea how much Eastern Europe hates Russia. Absolutely no idea. Ask anyone of them. Anyone. I deal with Polaks, Romanians and Bulgarians on a daily basis. I talk with Ukrainian refugees every week. All of them hate them to their core.
Add Slovaks to the list. They haven't forgotten the 1967 invasion for daring to try something different to Moscow's instructions.
 
1967 invasion
Leonid Ilyich Brezhnev was a Soviet politician who served as General Secretary of the Communist Party of the Soviet Union from 1964 until his death in 1982
Brezhnev was born on 19 December 1906 in Kamenskoye (now Kamianske, Ukraine)
In May 1937, he became deputy chairman of the Kamenskoye city soviet
In May 1946, he was appointed the first secretary of the Zaporizhzhia regional party committee
Eastern Europe hates Russia
L for Logics
 
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I commend your ability to hit a plane at cruising level with a slipper.
I was thinking more about the GPS systems, but I agree that would be some achievement hitting a plane with a slipper. :lol:
 
One particularly vocal gentleman on Russian state tv is blasting their own media and saying "we need a bit more truth"

Putting it in a spoiler with a language warning just in case.

 
One particularly vocal gentleman on Russian state tv is blasting their own media and saying "we need a bit more truth"
After Kursk invasion our propaganda didn't receive scripts and trying to guess what to do. Sometimes they even biting each other in progress. Battle of toad and viper, as we call it.

Latest clash is between tiktok warriors and some Z blogger that trying to understand how Italian journalists in Sudja and "Sudja isn't under Ukrainian control" combines in one reality.
 
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After Kursk invasion our propaganda didn't receive scripts and trying to guess what to do. Sometimes they even biting each other in progress. Battle of toad and viper, as we call it.
When in doubt, push someone out window and leave partially inflated airbag at bottom.
 
Looking at how successful the Kursk incursion has been so far, i was wondering (in jest), at what point do we need to rename this thread "Ukraine invasion of Russia" 🤔

And, because we haven't had one of these posts for a while...

Zelensky: Day 8 of my special operation. All is going well ;)

More seriously, I do wonder where this incursion is going to end. It does feel like a gamble which might change the war completely. And at some point, surely even Putin has to be threatened with some kind of removal/coup if large chunks of Russia become occupied long term?

My only concern is that Putin might get desperate and end up doing something really stupid.
 
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Looking at how successful the Kursk incursion has been so far, i was wondering (in jest), at what point do we need to rename this thread "Ukraine invasion of Russia" 🤔

And, because we haven't had one of these posts for a while...

Zelensky: Day 8 of my special operation. All is going well ;)

More seriously, I do wonder where this incursion is going to end. It does feel like a gamble which might change the war completely. And at some point, surely even Putin has to be threatened with some kind of removal/coup if large chunks of Russia become occupied long term?

My only concern is that Putin might get desperate and end up doing something really stupid.
I don't think even Iran will continue to support Russia if they use nuclear weapons. If he does it, it will be the last thing he ever does - I'm almost certain that the US will deliver a care package directly to his bedroom.
 
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Looking at how successful the Kursk incursion has been so far, i was wondering (in jest), at what point do we need to rename this thread "Ukraine invasion of Russia"
Ukrainians are really good at shock and awe, but that tactics could be used only at unprepared, weak and disorganised enemy. They still loosing at positional warfare at Kharkiv and Donbass.
I do wonder where this incursion is going to end
Two options:
1) Exchange after peacetalks
2) Whole area would be vaporised by aviation and Ukrainians just leave it.
It does feel like a gamble which might change the war completely.
It proved that there isn't any red lines and ATACAMS could hit Kremlin without any response. Whole nukes rhetoric was forgotten right after first Bradley crossed border.
 
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So NATO’s support and funding has now amounted to the armed invasion of a relatively small area where there just so happens to be active RMBK reactors right in the middle. They are familiar with Chernobyl, right?
 
So NATO’s support and funding has now amounted to the armed invasion of a relatively small area where there just so happens to be active RMBK reactors right in the middle. They are familiar with Chernobyl, right?
Both sides using nuclear threat now. Not like it right, but fair. Also, there isn't any signs that Ukraine wants to take power plant. If they want to, they could in first day.
 
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