Russian Invasion of Ukraine

[TexRex]

A couple of days ago, I used to think so, too. But now, when the situation in Donbass is getting hotter every hour, I wouldn't be so certain...

"But the Democrats! Trump!"

It was such a sound argument. Totally rational.

 

[Biggles]

I support Russia and the Russian nation, not Putin.

What Russia needs is to reduce the level of corruption - by far the worst in the developed world - & improve its economic and social conditions. Trying to inflame people's passions with the idea of regaining former territories is an old, tired nationalist gambit that has repeatedly resulted in pointless & destructive wars.

 

[Imari]

What Russia needs is to reduce the level of corruption - by far the worst in the developed world - & improve its economic and social conditions. Trying to inflame people's passions with the idea of regaining former territories is an old, tired nationalist gambit that has repeatedly resulted in pointless & destructive wars.

To be fair, this isn't just a Russian thing. All the major powers are dead keen to get into pointless and destructive wars. Russia would be the exception if it didn't.

Amusingly, China seems the least inclined to get involved in wars directly but they've got so many atrocities that they can commit on their home turf I think they've just got an unfair advantage.

 

[Dotini]

What Russia needs is to reduce the level of corruption - by far the worst in the developed world - & improve its economic and social conditions. Trying to inflame people's passions with the idea of regaining former territories is an old, tired nationalist gambit that has repeatedly resulted in pointless & destructive wars.

A gambit is a chess opening in which a player sacrifices material with the aim of achieving a subsequent positional advantage. Wikipedia

 

[Keef]

To be fair, this isn't just a Russian thing. All the major powers are dead keen to get into pointless and destructive wars. Russia would be the exception if it didn't.

Amusingly, China seems the least inclined to get involved in wars directly but they've got so many atrocities that they can commit on their home turf I think they've just got an unfair advantage.

On the contrary, I'd say that China is currently the second most beligerent nation in the world, right behind Russia. While they may not be seeming to enter an open war with Taiwan, they are absolutely keen on taking it, someway somehow. They've been engaged in a very visible soft war of attrition with Taiwan for years now. Their strategy is plain to see and will definitely be successful if nothing is done to stop it. They've also been exceptionally beligerent at their borders with India, Nepal, and Bhutan.

 

[Biggles]

A gambit is a chess opening in which a player sacrifices material with the aim of achieving a subsequent positional advantage. Wikipedia

Merriam-Webster dictionary: "a calculated move : STRATAGEM "

In this case, Putin using the threat of war to achieve geopolitical goals & distract the Russian population from the incompetence, corruption and dismal economic performance of his government.

To be fair, this isn't just a Russian thing. All the major powers are dead keen to get into pointless and destructive wars. Russia would be the exception if it didn't.

It's definitely not just a Russian thing ... but I wouldn't say "all the major powers" are dead keen to get into pointless and destructive wars. The First and Second World Wars were a powerful lesson to the major European powers and they have been more focused on international cooperation, trade & industry as a route to prosperity.

 

[Rage Racer]

Looks like something is about to start. A Ukrainian recon group with two BMP's (infantry fighting vehicles) allegedly tried to break through the Russian border and engaged in combat with RF border troops. Both BMP's were destroyed and five Ukrainian servicemen were killed, the Russians had no losses. At least this is what the RF Ministry of Defence says. No videos or photos are published. The clashes in the other spots of the conflict zone also continue.

Those "Z" markings on the Russian vehicles seem to be a sign to prevent friendly fire because Ukrainan army uses similar vehicles. Similarly to the "invasion stripes" on Allied aircraft during the Operation Overlord, or on Soviet tanks in Czechoslovakia in 1968. Looks like they're all set.

The RF Security Council has just finished an emergency meeting with the president, where they decided what to do next.

Thank you, colleagues, I've heard your opinion. The decision will be made today.

- said Putin in the end.

Trying to inflame people's passions with the idea of regaining former territories is an old, tired nationalist gambit that has repeatedly resulted in pointless & destructive wars.

I agree about corruption, but you misunderstand the reason of attention of Russian people to the current Ukraine situation.
It's not about territorial gain and BS like this. It's not going to inflame anyone's passion.

The main reason why many Russians (even those normally don't care about politics) care about what's happening in Ukraine is the people. People who speak the same language with us and culturally identical to us, are in danger of being hit by Ukrainian artillery, and it's the eighth year they keep living like this. They keep dying under mortar fire and on landmines. And even those who aren't hit by the war directly live in unrecognized quasi-states with hardly any prospects for life.

One day this whole thing must be settled once and for all. Either way, diplomatical or military. War is **** and of course I'd prefer the first one. But there are very little hopes left for it, as Kyiv repeatedly refuses to follow the UN-approved agreements and the Western powers don't even try to push on Zelensky to do it. If Russia steps back now, it will only delay the unavoidable again and again. "A terrible end is better than terror without an end" - a phrase I read today on one of the social media communities that highlight the situation, and can't say much to disagree with it. But, honestly, I still feel a bit uneasy because a major intervention is about to begin.

 

[eran0004]

I agree about corruption, but you misunderstand the reason of attention of Russian people to the current Ukraine situation.
It's not about territorial gain and BS like this. It's not going to inflame anyone's passion.

The main reason why many Russians (even those normally don't care about politics) care about what's happening in Ukraine is the people. People who speak the same language with us and culturally identical to us, are in danger of being hit by Ukrainian artillery, and it's the eighth year they keep living like this. They keep dying under mortar fire and on landmines. And even those who aren't hit by the war directly live in unrecognized quasi-states with hardly any prospects for life.

One day this whole thing must be settled once and for all. Either way, diplomatical or military. War is **** and of course I'd prefer the first one. But there are very little hopes left for it, as Kyiv repeatedly refuses to follow the UN-approved agreements and the Western powers don't even try to push on Zelensky to do it. If Russia steps back now, it will only delay the unavoidable again and again. "A terrible end is better than terror without an end" - a phrase I read today on one of the social media communities that highlight the situation, and can't say much to disagree with it. But, honestly, I still feel a bit uneasy because a major intervention is about to begin.

Then stop supporting the separatists so that there can be peace in Ukraine.

The problem here is that Putin has no interest in peace. He is interested in punishing Ukraine for the revolution of 2014, that's really all there is to it.

 

[Scaff]

A Ukrainian recon group with two BMP's (infantry fighting vehicles) allegedly tried to break through the Russian border and engaged in combat with RF border troops. Both BMP's were destroyed and five Ukrainian servicemen were killed, the Russians had no losses. At least this is what the RF Ministry of Defence says.

Do you honestly believe that Ukrainian troops would engage in a suicide mission that serves zero purpose?

No videos or photos are published.

I'm truly shocked.

 

[Rage Racer]

Then stop supporting the separatists so that there can be peace in Ukraine.

You mean let Kiev bomb the hell out of them, along with the civilians?

The problem here is that Putin has no interest in peace.

Of course he's interested in a war near Russian borders continuing for almost a decade and refugee crisis.

He is interested in punishing Ukraine for the revolution of 2014, that's really all there is to it.

What a simplistic thought.

Do you honestly believe that Ukrainian troops would engage in a suicide mission that serves zero purpose?

I didn't say I do. Not until I see any convincing evidence of this, at least.

 

[Dennisch]

 

[TexRex]

 

[Scaff]

I didn't say I do. Not until I see any convincing evidence of this, at least.

I think our standards of convincing evidence around this may well end up differing.

 

[TheCracker]

Of course he's interested in a war near Russian borders continuing for almost a decade and refugee crisis.

A civil war in another country that he's been stoking the flames of and funding for the last seven years.

 

[eran0004]

You mean let Kiev bomb the hell out of them, along with the civilians?


Of course he's interested in a war near Russian borders continuing for almost a decade and refugee crisis.


What a simplistic thought.

I didn't say I do. Not until I see any convincing evidence of this, at least.

It's Ukraine's territory, they have the right to defend it against separatists. But you're missing the whole point. Without support from Russia, the separatists can't continue the war and it would inevitably come to and end.

Putin seems very interested in war along his borders, as he supports separatists in both Ukraine and Georgia. Any refugee crisis that occurs because of it only adds fuel to his propaganda machine.

The great paradox in all of this is that Putin doesn't like that NATO is getting closer and closer to Russia's border, when he is the very reason why so many neighboring countries are seeking the protection of NATO.

 

[unit-one]

Looks like something is about to start. A Ukrainian recon group with two BMP's (infantry fighting vehicles) allegedly tried to break through the Russian border and engaged in combat with RF border troops. Both BMP's were destroyed and five Ukrainian servicemen were killed, the Russians had no losses. At least this is what the RF Ministry of Defence says. No videos or photos are published. The clashes in the other spots of the conflict zone also continue.

The RF Security Council has just finished an emergency meeting with the president, where they decided what to do next.

- said Putin in the end.

I agree about corruption, but you misunderstand the reason of attention of Russian people to the current Ukraine situation.
It's not about territorial gain and BS like this. It's not going to inflame anyone's passion.

The main reason why many Russians (even those normally don't care about politics) care about what's happening in Ukraine is the people. People who speak the same language with us and culturally identical to us, are in danger of being hit by Ukrainian artillery, and it's the eighth year they keep living like this. They keep dying under mortar fire and on landmines. And even those who aren't hit by the war directly live in unrecognized quasi-states with hardly any prospects for life.

One day this whole thing must be settled once and for all. Either way, diplomatical or military. War is **** and of course I'd prefer the first one. But there are very little hopes left for it, as Kyiv repeatedly refuses to follow the UN-approved agreements and the Western powers don't even try to push on Zelensky to do it. If Russia steps back now, it will only delay the unavoidable again and again. "A terrible end is better than terror without an end" - a phrase I read today on one of the social media communities that highlight the situation, and can't say much to disagree with it. But, honestly, I still feel a bit uneasy because a major intervention is about to begin.

The propaganda TV show "60 minutes" showed a helmet camera video. There was one wheeled BTR armored people carrier, but no two tracked BMPs infantry fighting vehicles was seen. Also one other soldier was walking alongside. The BTR rammed through a chain link gate, then the video cut to a moment where the soldiers are taking fire, one of them is lying on the ground motionlessly covering his face.
The news stated that this happened near Mityakinskaya, Rostov Oblast, but I can't find similar places, the border is in a river.
I don't know if the video is real or fake.

"Russia-24" showed video of what looks like one or two BMPs or BMDs on fire in a completely different place with evergreen vegetation.

The RF Council meeting was probably recorded and they already know what to do.

The head of the Foreign Intelligence Service, Sergei Naryshkin, shaking under pressure from Vladimir Putin, supported "the proposal to include the LPR and DPR in the Russian Federation."

"We are not discussing this," Putin smiled. "We are discussing the recognition of the independence of these republics."

"I support the proposal to recognize independence," Naryshkin immediately corrected himself.

The wrist watches on people showed past midday, but the "live" video was shown in the evening.

They talked about genocide and destruction of Russian people and culture by Ukrainian fascists, nazis, NATO bad, USA bad, all that usual stuff. But... man, it sounds so cringe. How the hell do Russian people in the rest of Ukraine live? facepalm
They even admitted that they couldn't have lived knowing that Crimea will have NATO flag waving above their sea base.

 

[Blitz24]

I guess Russia ALSO uses the logic that anyone who isn't for Russia are Nazis...

 

[Biggles]

I agree about corruption, but you misunderstand the reason of attention of Russian people to the current Ukraine situation.
It's not about territorial gain and BS like this. It's not going to inflame anyone's passion.

The main reason why many Russians (even those normally don't care about politics) care about what's happening in Ukraine is the people. People who speak the same language with us and culturally identical to us, are in danger of being hit by Ukrainian artillery, and it's the eighth year they keep living like this. They keep dying under mortar fire and on landmines. And even those who aren't hit by the war directly live in unrecognized quasi-states with hardly any prospects for life.

The world is full of aggrieved people. This is particularly of central/eastern Europe. There are linguistic/ethnic/cultural/religious/national groups scattered through the region. All have historical reasons to distrust & hate their neighbours. All have linguistic/ethnic/cultural/religious/national minorities "trapped" in other countries. All of them circulate stories of atrocities committed against "their people". The dismal history of Soviet domination in Eastern Europe following the Second World War set back all those countries by decades ... including Russia itself. Now, while the Western European countries have progressed through decades of prosperity & peace, Putin wants to go back to inflaming nationalist sentiment in Russia to distract its people from his economic, political & social mismanagement. There's nothing unique about the situation in Ukraine - it's a familiar story throughout human history.

 

[Joey D]

There!
You stereotype the political life of Russian people, by suggesting that we are afraid to talk bad about our government or that anyone who doesn't adore Putin enough risks being thrown out of a window. If that was true, I'd probably fly from a window a dozen of times, considering that I once personally met and shook hands with a well-known oppositionary politician (Mikhail Svetov, maybe you heard of him).

And it's a mistake to think that if someone takes side of Russia and the Russian people in Ukraine conflict he\she is necessarily a Putinist.

That still isn't stereotyping. It's not wrong to say that opposition to Putin and his government end up defenestrated or poisoned since it's not exactly uncommon. Stereotyping would be to say all Russians are drunk on vodka, wear Adidas tracksuits, and have pet bears.

And if you're taking Russia's side in this, how can you not be a Putinist? There's zero justification for Russia's aggressive action here and they still have no casus belli. Russia is being needlessly aggressive for no reason and looking to destabilize the region. Putin is also acting like a pestilential little child when it comes to NATO and is clearly pumping the propaganda machine to make Russians think NATO will invade their country. NATO isn't going to invade, Europe doesn't want a war with Russia, and the US would prefer to stay out of the mess altogether.

Honestly, if I'm Zelenskyy, I petition NATO to join the alliance since clearly, it needs NATO's help to keep Russia from launching an unjustified attack.

 

[VolkswagenX]

 

[Liquid]

Welcome to the Russian Federation, Republic of Donetsk and Republic of Luhansk.

 

[Tornado]

I can't believe Russia was so stupid as to believe the liberal media and Democrat's conspiracy that Russia was going to invade the Ukraine.

 

[Biggles]

Rhineland, Anschluss, Sudetenland, occupation of Czechoslovakia. We've seen it all before.😒

 

[Dotini]

So now the question is where are the boundaries of Donetsk and Luhansk - where they are now or where they were?

So far Biden has gone to the extraordinary effort of banning trade with the breakaway provinces.

 

[Rage Racer]

So, Putin has recognized the breakaway republics of Donetsk and Lugansk as independent. The 4th points of the two orders (one for each republic) say to "maintain peace on the territory of Donetsk/Lugansk People's Republic by Russian Armed Forces". In other words - Russia officially sends troops on their territory. As I am typing this, Russian tanks are reportedly in Lugansk.

It also means that the Minsk agreements are officially dead and buried. Not like they were alive any time earlier.

A funny detail: in December 2021, Vladimir Zhirinovsky, the leader of LDPR (Liberal-Democratic Party of Russia) who was recently hospitalized with COVID-19, said that February, 22nd will be day when Ukraine will "feel what program Russia accepts" if Kyiv doesn't comply with the Minsk agreements. Damn, this old man is the Nostradamus. Or he knew something he spit out too early...

The propaganda TV show "60 minutes" showed a helmet camera video. There was one wheeled BTR armored people carrier, but no two tracked BMPs infantry fighting vehicles was seen. Also one other soldier was walking alongside. The BTR rammed through a chain link gate, then the video cut to a moment where the soldiers are taking fire, one of them is lying on the ground motionlessly covering his face.
The news stated that this happened near Mityakinskaya, Rostov Oblast, but I can't find similar places, the border is in a river.
I don't know if the video is real or fake.

View attachment 1116211

"Russia-24" showed video of what looks like one or two BMPs or BMDs on fire in a completely different place with evergreen vegetation.
View attachment 1116213

Yes, I've seen this and it looks weird. Only one BMP-2 (although most BMP-2's of Ukrainian army are lost in combat, they mostly have BMP-1's and BMD's left) with its barrel directed in the air... in a forest. Which looks too green for February. Also there are no bodies of the soldiers.

Hell, if they wanted to stage their version of Gleiwitz incident they could at least do something more convincing. Not like it's going to serve as a casus belli this time.

I think our standards of convincing evidence around this may well end up differing.

Here, you can see above.

The RF Council meeting was probably recorded and they already know what to do.

The head of the Foreign Intelligence Service, Sergei Naryshkin, shaking under pressure from Vladimir Putin, supported "the proposal to include the LPR and DPR in the Russian Federation."

"We are not discussing this," Putin smiled. "We are discussing the recognition of the independence of these republics."

"I support the proposal to recognize independence," Naryshkin immediately corrected himself.

The wrist watches on people showed past midday, but the "live" video was shown in the evening.

They talked about genocide and destruction of Russian people and culture by Ukrainian fascists, nazis, NATO bad, USA bad, all that usual stuff. But... man, it sounds so cringe. How the hell do Russian people in the rest of Ukraine live? facepalm
They even admitted that they couldn't have lived knowing that Crimea will have NATO flag waving above their sea base.

Saw this, too. Yes, Naryshkin looked like a student who didn't prepare for the exam properly.

Yes they sounded cringe, but you know was just an exaggeration and overdramatization of real things.

The great paradox in all of this is that Putin doesn't like that NATO is getting closer and closer to Russia's border, when he is the very reason why so many neighboring countries are seeking the protection of NATO.

What did Putin do before 1997 (when he wasn't even a president) and 2004 that made NATO expand to the east twice, accepting, among the others, Poland and the Baltic states bordering Russia?

And if you're taking Russia's side in this, how can you not be a Putinist?

Easily.

You dislike Putin because you think he's an aggressive dictator.
I dislike Putin because he doesn't do enough to defend the Russian people.
We're not the same.

Honestly, if I'm Zelenskyy, I petition NATO to join the alliance since clearly, it needs NATO's help to keep Russia from launching an unjustified attack.

This is what he already keeps doing already, including the recent Munich conference where he also begged for money "without conditions" and threatened that Ukraine may regain nuclear weapons. But he seemed to have forgotten that he's not a comedian anymore.

Rhineland, Anschluss, Sudetenland, occupation of Czechoslovakia. We've seen it all before.😒

And also Kosovo and Northern Cyprus.

 

[andrea]

This must be some mega vanity play for attention because the sanctions that will follow are going to hurt. With or without a war.

 

[Joey D]

You dislike Putin because you think he's an aggressive dictator.
I dislike Putin because he doesn't do enough to defend the Russian people.
We're not the same.

You're right, we aren't the same. I want Putin to respect a sovereign nation and quit trying to destabilize an entire region because of his failure as a leader. You, and correct me if I'm wrong here, seem to support the invasion?

Even if you don't support the invasion, having Putin invade Ukraine is pretty far from doing something to defend the Russian people. He's now going to drag his nation along with Europe into war and suffer massive economic sanctions that are going to hurt normal, everyday Russian people who just want to live their life. If you want a better Russia, you should absolutely be against Putin's actions here instead of trying to make excuses for it.

 

[Eunos_Cosmo]

I'd say there's about a 75% chance that this is a prologue to fully invading Ukraine. Poland, Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania shouldn't be feeling too comfortable right now. If there is no military response from NATO, Putin will keep going.

 

[Blitz24]

I'd say there's about a 75% chance that this is a prologue to fully invading Ukraine. Poland, Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania shouldn't be feeling too comfortable right now. If there is no military response from NATO, Putin will keep going.

Bigger difference if Putin tries to invade a NATO country than if he tries to invade a non-NATO one. Although it was painfully obvious that he was creating a fulfilling pretext to go ahead and invade Ukraine, that pretext will not work on any of the Baltic countries.

 

[unit-one]

I'd say there's about a 75% chance that this is a prologue to fully invading Ukraine. Poland, Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania shouldn't be feeling too comfortable right now. If there is no military response from NATO, Putin will keep going.

Estonia will never accept Russia's recognition of breakaway regions