Russian Invasion of Ukraine

[Touring Mars]

He thinks he found a loophole by first recognising these regions as independent states before invading them.

 

[andrea]

The Russian peacekeepers will be in Luhaska and Donetsk soon enough. As in, we'll keep this piece and this piece.

Ban CS:Go and GTA:SA in Russia and they'll revolt overnight.

Hit them where it hurts most. Add dota 2 to that list.

 

[Hun200kmh]

Nothing is new in all of this, history - as usual - is repeating itself. This little story is worth a read:

The military occupation of Czechoslovakia by Nazi Germany began with the German annexation of the Sudetenland in 1938, continued with the creation of the Protectorate of Bohemia and Moravia, and by the end of 1944 extended to all parts of Czechoslovakia.

Following the Anschluss of Austria to Nazi Germany in March 1938, he obtained with the Munich Agreement in September 1938. Adolf Hitler annexed the ethnic Germans living in Czech regions. The loss of Sudetenland was detrimental to the defense of Czechoslovakia as the extensive Czechoslovak border fortifications were also located in the same area. The incorporation of the Sudetenland into Germany that began on 1 October 1938 left the rest of Czechoslovakia weak. Moreover, a small northeastern part of the borderland region known as Zaolzie was occupied and annexed to Poland ostensibly to "protect" the local ethnic Polish community and as a result of previous territorial claims (Czech-Polish disputes in the years of 1918–20). Furthermore, by the First Vienna Award, Hungary received the southern territories of Slovakia and Carpathian Ruthenia, which was largely inhabited by Hungarians.

As the Slovak State was proclaimed on 14 March, the next day Hungary occupied and annexed the remainder of Carpathian Ruthenia. After fearing an Hungarian invasion, the Czech Prime Minister asked the German Wehrmacht to protect the remainder of the Czech lands. On 16 March 1939, Hitler agreed to form the Protectorate of Bohemia and Moravia from Prague Castle after negotiations with Emil Hácha, who remained as technical head of state with the title of State President. However, he was rendered all but powerless; real power was vested in the Reichsprotektor, who served as Hitler's personal representative.[1]

In March 1944, during Operation Margarethe Hungary was occupied by Germany, while beginning at the end of August 1944 with the Slovak National Uprising, Slovakia shared the same fate. The occupation ended with the surrender of Germany following World War II. During the German occupation between 294,000[1] to 320,000[2] citizens (including Jews, making up most of the casualties[3]) were murdered. Reprisals were especially harsh in the aftermath of the assassination of Reinhard Heydrich (e.g. the infamous and widely published Lidice massacre). Large number of people were drafted for slave labour in Germany.

I wonder what will be the moment equivalent to September 1 1939, when the english and the french finally realized they had no option but to confront the "annexation" bully of the era.

 

[Touring Mars]

Perhaps Putin needs to brief his staff a bit better...

On being pressed to 'speak plainly' by Putin on camera, the head of Russia's foreign intelligence service blurts out that he supports Donetsk and Luhansk becoming part of the Russian Federation. Oops...

Clearly, this guy is trying to say what he thinks Putin wants him to say, but gets it spectacularly wrong (not because it isn't true, but because it is not what Putin wants people to hear)...

The fact that Putin is bullying his own staff like this is an ominous sign. He is clearly now in full dictator mode and his own senior staff are trembling with fear, probably because they know that what he is doing is incredibly dangerous, but for them personally it is even more dangerous to disagree - and as this clip demonstrates, even agreeing with the guy can get you into bother.

 

[Liquid]

Why pretend? Nobody's going to stop Russia anyway.

 

[Joey D]

Clearly, this guy is trying to say what he thinks Putin wants him to say, but gets it spectacularly wrong (not because it isn't true, but because it is not what Putin wants people to hear)...

Sounds like someone is about to "accidentally" be defenestrated.

 

[Rage Racer]

You, and correct me if I'm wrong here, seem to support the invasion?

Not exactly.
I think the recognition and defense of the breakaway republics should have been done earlier. Seven years earlier. The more you delay a surgery, the worse for the patient's health it becomes. But late is still better than never.

However, a more competent leader than Putin would not let all this mess happen by losing Ukraine to the anti-Russian regime that came to power in early 2014. Instead of actively working with the Ukrainian politicians and keeping the influence, Moscow was simply lending money to president Yanukovych until he eventually ran away with it.

What makes NATO expand is that countries decide that they want to become members of the alliance.

What you should ask yourself is what makes these countries want to join NATO. Russia’s long history of invading and occupying it’s neighbours (whether under its own flag or as the USSR) is clearly a motivation there. You are absolutely correct that it didn’t start with Putin, but Putin brought that policy into the 21st century.

But, wait - Russia was a friend to the US and Europe during Yeltsin's presidency, and yet still got NATO only closer to it. Putin also didn't do anything bad by 2004 and we still got NATO on our borders, despite of "guarantees" given to USSR when it left East Germany.

You only confirm my thoughts on this - the West would never be fine with Russia - whatever if it's a monarchy, a communist state or a democracy. Political regime doesn't matter here.

Ban of semiconductors import and swift shutdown. This would demolish our banking, IT and hi tech weapon development.

It is very unlikely that RF is shut down from SWIFT, because it would also hit the global economy hard (EU won't be able to pay Russia for the gas they need) and would be a great gift to China that plans to design its own payment system along with Russia. Here's more (BBC Russian).

Ban of semiconductors export to RF would probably hurt but I guess China can help here, too.

I think that an online ban, let's say Steam/Valve, would be a lot more effective to break down morale.

Not sure if you're serious or not, but you know that Putin or his oligarchs don't play video games, don't you?
That would be a hit on the friendly demographic, because gamers are generally younger people who are more pro-Western and anti-Putin. They're oppressed by Putin's regime so much, and the US, the land of freedom that's supposed to save them from dictatorship - treats them like this... Hmm...

Ban CS:Go and GTA:SA in Russia and they'll revolt overnight.

GTA:SA ban would never be a problem, because the absolute majority of Russian GTA:SA players play the pirated version with funny translation to broken Russian. @inCloud probably knows what I'm talking about

We need China to take back the territory they lost to the USSR.

Which one, do you know any?

In response to Putin's comments about Ukraine not really existing for long

And? The city of Kiev (or Kyiv as it's called in Ukrainian today) existed long before there was such country as "Ukraine".
Russia didn't originate in Moscow, either.

NOw expand that same level of critical analysis to everything the Kremin has been saying, if they can lie to this blatantly, what else have they lied about?

Same goes for any other country as well. I don't think there is a state whose government never lies.
But to continue my critical analysis, I'm not 100% sure those videos are fake, either.

Given that Russian troops have now entered Ukraine, Putin and the entire Russian governments' repeated denials of an intent to invade Ukraine can now only be described as bare-faced lies... who knew!?

Well, from Kremlin's perspective, they entered the territory of independent states, being invited by them. So, technically, they didn't lie because they haven't invaded Ukraine just yet (their recognized version of Ukraine, I mean). De facto, the Russian troops entered an area that wasn't under Ukraine's control anyway. Or, to put it straight - there was a little RF military presence already, and what Moscow did is basically expanded it and made official.

Aka Putin wants Ukraine to no longer exist as an independent country. A fact which nearly everyone should have known to begin with.

From his perspective, Ukraine is already not an independent country - it's a territory remotely controlled from the US with a former (or not so former) comedian pretending to be the president.

A funny detail: after the speech where Putin blamed Ukraine for being a puppet state, Zelensky... immediately contacted the US and UK leaders to discuss it. 😆

Perhaps Putin needs to brief his staff a bit better...

On being pressed to 'speak plainly' by Putin on camera, the head of Russia's foreign intelligence service blurts out that he supports Donetsk and Luhansk becoming part of the Russian Federation. Oops...

Clearly, this guy is trying to say what he thinks Putin wants him to say, but gets it spectacularly wrong (not because it isn't true, but because it is not what Putin wants people to hear)...

The fact that Putin is bullying his own staff like this is an ominous sign. He is clearly now in full dictator mode and his own senior staff are trembling with fear, probably because they know that what he is doing is incredibly dangerous, but for them personally it is even more dangerous to disagree - and as this clip demonstrates, even agreeing with the guy can get you into bother.

There's an opinion that this whole meeting was a staged performance with roles and speeches written in advance, and Naryshkin just forgot his text. Or just confused and said the wrong text, for a different act...

He looked like a student who wasn't well prepared for the exam.

Sounds like someone is about to "accidentally" be defenestrated.

And again, you continue the imaginery defenestration of everyone who even glanced wrong at our old man.

 

[Blitz24]

Sounds like someone is about to "accidentally" be defenestrated.

+1 falling out of window.

 

[Eunos_Cosmo]

Sounds like someone is about to "accidentally" be defenestrated.

He fell down an elevator shaft, onto some bullets. Terrible accident really.

 

[MatskiMonk]

The fact that Putin is bullying his own staff like this is an ominous sign. He is clearly now in full dictator mode and his own senior staff are trembling with fear, probably because they know that what he is doing is incredibly dangerous, but for them personally it is even more dangerous to disagree - and as this clip demonstrates, even agreeing with the guy can get you into bother.

He's like Western populist leaders...

.. but competent at what he does.

 

[Danoff]

He is clearly now in full dictator mode and his own senior staff are trembling with fear, probably because they know that what he is doing is incredibly dangerous, but for them personally it is even more dangerous to disagree

 

[Famine]

Perhaps Putin needs to brief his staff a bit better...

On being pressed to 'speak plainly' by Putin on camera, the head of Russia's foreign intelligence service blurts out that he supports Donetsk and Luhansk becoming part of the Russian Federation. Oops...

Clearly, this guy is trying to say what he thinks Putin wants him to say, but gets it spectacularly wrong (not because it isn't true, but because it is not what Putin wants people to hear)...

The fact that Putin is bullying his own staff like this is an ominous sign. He is clearly now in full dictator mode and his own senior staff are trembling with fear, probably because they know that what he is doing is incredibly dangerous, but for them personally it is even more dangerous to disagree - and as this clip demonstrates, even agreeing with the guy can get you into bother.

All good faith is out the window at this point. Coincidentally.

 

[Rage Racer]

Germany halts approval of gas pipeline Nord Stream 2 after Russia's actions

Germany on Tuesday halted the certification of the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline designed to bring natural gas from Russia directly to Europe.

www.cnbc.com

Looks like Germany is starting to take a stronger stance against Russia, considering how valuable this pipeline probably is to Russia's economy.

The Nord Stream 2 had already paid off 4 times thanks to the rise of gas prices last year, and now they might grow up again. The Germans can scrap this pipeline for metal if they want to.

 

[Scaff]

Same goes for any other country as well.

Whataboutism.

I don't think there is a state whose government never lies.
But to continue my critical analysis, I'm not 100% sure those videos are fake, either.

Your track record isn't strong in this regard at all.

From his perspective, Ukraine is already not an independent country -

Except that's not a choice he gets to make, international law disagrees and he doesn't get to just override that.

it's a territory remotely controlled from the US

It's not

with a former (or not so former) comedian pretending to be the president.

Careful, you're Putin is showing...

A funny detail: after the speech where Putin blamed Ukraine for being a puppet state, Zelensky... immediately contacted the US and UK leaders to discuss it. 😆

You do know that discussing a situation such as this with your allies is actually perfectly normal?

It's not the hot take you think it is, not even close.

 

[Darla Starch]

I wonder what will be the moment equivalent to September 1 1939, when the english and the french finally realized they had no option but to confront the "annexation" bully of the era.

Poland:

 

[Dotini]

@Rage Racer
Your contributions to this thread are greatly appreciated. We all benefit from your perspective onto this situation. I know it takes a great deal of patience and commitment to do what you are doing right now. I hope you can bear with the occasional scorn and opprobrium that is directed towards you personally. Once again, your contributions are greatly appreciated.

 

[Eunos_Cosmo]

@Rage Racer
Your contributions to this thread are greatly appreciated. We all benefit from your perspective onto this situation. I know it takes a great deal of patience and commitment to do what you are doing right now. I hope you can bear with the occasional scorn and opprobrium that is directed towards you personally. Once again, your contributions are greatly appreciated.

@inCloud your contributions to this thread shall be discarded as you do not demonstrate the requisite fealty to a strongman.

 

[Joey D]

Not exactly.
I think the recognition and defense of the breakaway republics should have been done earlier. Seven years earlier. The more you delay a surgery, the worse for the patient's health it becomes. But late is still better than never.

So you agree with the illegal occupation of a sovereign nation? Because that's what recognizing these "republics" is, an illegal occupation of a sovereign nation.

However, a more competent leader than Putin would not let all this mess happen by losing Ukraine to the anti-Russian regime that came to power in early 2014. Instead of actively working with the Ukrainian politicians and keeping the influence, Moscow was simply lending money to president Yanukovych until he eventually ran away with it.

Lose Ukraine to what? The west? If you're a country in Eastern Europe who are you going to align with? The former Soviet Union that oppressed the hell out of you or a Western power that didn't? Seems like a pretty easy choice.

And again, you continue the imaginery defenestration of everyone who even glanced wrong at our old man.

It's not imaginary. Putin's critics have a strange way of ending up dead under suspicious circumstances.

Here are 112 suspicious deaths since 2014. Also, let's not forget the political prisoners who are likely locked up for unjustified reasons. Or you know, the most famous case of Alexei Navalny who was the victim of an assassination attempt.

Say what you want about the West, but our leaders don't go around killing people that speak out against them. If we did, Trump's hit list would be several miles long.

===

We all benefit from your perspective onto this situation.

Speak for yourself.

 

[KilzoneStrife]

If there's anyone from Ukraine reading this post, you guys are in my thoughts.

Putin is not just a dictator, he's a deluded madman.

Guy has surrounded himself with super rich yes-men that seem utterly captivated by the wealth of natural resources in the Ukraine (that would have removed some dependence on Europe on desperately devouring Russian oil)
+
Putin can't help the fact that he will be remembered as a clown when he passes, that's his legacy.

When you add to the propaganda piece he recited on TV, you'd feel it's straight up cold-war level of paranoia and he's desperately trying to get the Russian public on his side to support a full blown invasion all in the guise of "saving Ukraine"

I hope this situation doesn't escalate, but it's becoming obvious a full blown invasion is imminent and the West will be forced to support the resistance that will emerge.

This is going to cause a massive humanitarian crisis, but I hope in the end.. justice is delivered and the people of Ukraine retain their SOVEREIGN state and rights.

 

[eran0004]

But, wait - Russia was a friend to the US and Europe during Yeltsin's presidency, and yet still got NATO only closer to it. Putin also didn't do anything bad by 2004 and we still got NATO on our borders, despite of "guarantees" given to USSR when it left East Germany.

You only confirm my thoughts on this - the West would never be fine with Russia - whatever if it's a monarchy, a communist state or a democracy. Political regime doesn't matter here.

How is one friendly President a guarantee that Russia wouldn’t occupy the Baltic states ever again? In fact, if Estonia wasn’t in NATO or the EU I bet Russia would be occupying it again by now, since the presence of a Russian-speaking population in any country seems to be enough to trigger an invasion.

 

[Imari]

He's like Western populist leaders...

.. but competent at what he does.

Pretty much. It seems hard to be that mad at Putin for just doing what most of the Western leaders would like to do. I mean, I think it's terrible for the state of the world but this is not a new plan, Putin just isn't **** at it.

I believe people who get mad at other being better than them at stuff are commonly referred to as "n00bs".

So you agree with the illegal occupation of a sovereign nation? Because that's what recognizing these "republics" is, an illegal occupation of a sovereign nation.

That bridge was kind of crossed with Crimea though, right? This is not the first time that this has happened in the recent past, and the success the first time kind of guaranteed that Russia was going to try again. Why wouldn't they?

It's absolutely illegal occupation, but as we're seeing so often these days if there isn't consequences for breaking a law then people are going to realise that there's no real reason to obey it. Politicians and rich people get away with breaking laws all the time because there are no meaningful consequences.

If you can start stealing bits of countries and nobody does anything meaningful to stop you, who cares if it's "illegal"?

Putin is not just a dictator, he's a deluded madman.

I'm not sure how helpful it is to think of Putin as insane. He may well be a psychopath with no particular regard for human life, but he's not stupid. Nor is he deluded in the sense that he doesn't perceive reality correctly, he's apparently correctly assessed that he can get away with pushing troops into Ukraine and he seems to have a pretty good read on the leaders and leadership of the major countries that would oppose him.

The West needs to figure out what they're going to do about this instead of complaining that Putin isn't playing by the rules. Because he doesn't care.

If someone in Gran Turismo is winning by cutting corners you can moan about it, you can wait and hope that Polyphony patches the rules to remove the exploit, or you can figure out how to play the game against someone who is willing to exploit every advantage even if it goes against the rules of sportsmanship.

 

[inCloud]

The Nord Stream 2 had already paid off 4 times thanks to the rise of gas prices last year, and now they might grow up again. The Germans can scrap this pipeline for metal if they want to.

Its not operational, afaik.

If you can start stealing bits of countries and nobody does anything meaningful to stop you, who cares if it's "illegal"?

33₽ for 1$ in early 2014
79₽ for 1$ after Crimea anexion and right now.
Our savings and salary was cut down in half.

Crimea was main resort for USSR citizens, its always was russian in minds of Russians. Thats why "Crim nash" is a thing and Putin has its rating for so long.

Donbass is war torn region with dying coal industry and mixed russian/ukrainian population. There isnt any interest for russians here, futhermore russians dont want to be part of any war.

 

[Scaff]

Its not operational, afaik.

It's not. It's complete, but has not been certified for use, and it's the certification process that Germany has stopped. Without it the pipeline can't be used, and despite @Rage Racer claiming it will not hurt Russia, that's simply not true. It would double the capacity of gas Russia could supply, and additionally would allow Russia to avoid existing pipelines through a number of countries, including Poland and Ukraine.

As such anyone claiming it not going live doesn't have an impact has either bought into some absurd propaganda or is unaware of the benefits it would bring to Russia and Gazprom.

EXPLAINER: What is the Russia-Europe Nord Stream 2 pipeline?

Germany has suspended the approval process for Russia's Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline in response to Moscow's recognition of separatist regions in Ukraine

abcnews.go.com

 

[inCloud]

double the capacity of gas Russia could supply,

There is opinion that current pipes could supply enough. Main reason is independents from Ukraine/Poland and opportunities for corruption.

 

[McLaren]

Putin's lap dog calls the invasion "genius".

“I went in yesterday and there was a television screen, and I said, ‘This is genius.’ Putin declares a big portion of the Ukraine—of Ukraine. Putin declares it as independent. Oh, that’s wonderful. So, Putin is now saying, ‘It’s independent,’ a large section of Ukraine. I said, ‘How smart is that?’ And he’s gonna go in and be a peacekeeper. That’s the strongest peace force. We could use that on our southern border. That’s the strongest peace force I’ve ever seen. There were more army tanks than I’ve ever seen. They’re gonna keep peace all right. No, but think of it. Here’s a guy who’s very savvy, I know him very well. Very, very well.”

Trump Calls Putin’s Ukraine Moves “Genius” Because He’s a Sick Man Who Hates Democracy

He also dubbed the Russian president “very savvy.”

www.vanityfair.com

 

[TheCracker]

Reagan's body is spinning at unheard of levels; a former Republican President praising Russia on such levels.

Russia/Putin has really done a job on the GOP and republican supporters by convincing them that Russia are the good guys.

At this point they've pretty much won the Cold War without lifting a lid on any of those ageing silos.

 

[Keef]

Whataboutism.

But still true.

Except that's not a choice he gets to make, international law disagrees and he doesn't get to just override that.

Unfortunately it is, because international law is weak and poorly enforced. Particular in the case of countries who pick and choose which ones to follow and which ones to break (like the US and UK on many occasions throughout history). And entire countries breaking the law is very different than some rotten kid in the hood who can simply be scooped up by cops for the night and scared into learning a lesson. When entire countries learn that they can do things without repercussions, as Russia has learned since 2014, that country's audacity becomes much more powerful than any silly law.

It's not

Well I'm glad we've cleared that up!

From Russia's perspective it is and since you're not Russia your opinion - our opinion - doesn't matter. Russia and many Russian people have a fundamentally different understanding of the situation which actually does make just as much sense as our Western interpretation. I posted a video lecture about that a page or two ago. In fact I'd argue that the Western interpretation of Ukraine's status and future has been flawed the entire time and is primarily responsible for the situation we're in now.

You do know that discussing a situation such as this with your allies is actually perfectly normal?

Allies whose dollars run every aspect of the global economy and whose influence over many countries in the world - including your little island - cannot be denied.

It's not the hot take you think it is, not even close.

Here's a hot take: Our interpretation of the law doesn't matter to people who don't care about it and who cannot effectively be punished for it in a civilized manner.

So what are you gonna do about? I don't think anything posted in this thread is gonna solve the issue. As an American I'm kinda feeling that we should just leave this situation to the almighty empires of Europe to sort out while we concentrate on bigger issues with our Pacific allies.

 

[Joey D]

That bridge was kind of crossed with Crimea though, right? This is not the first time that this has happened in the recent past, and the success the first time kind of guaranteed that Russia was going to try again. Why wouldn't they?

It's absolutely illegal occupation, but as we're seeing so often these days if there isn't consequences for breaking a law then people are going to realise that there's no real reason to obey it. Politicians and rich people get away with breaking laws all the time because there are no meaningful consequences.

If you can start stealing bits of countries and nobody does anything meaningful to stop you, who cares if it's "illegal"?

Absolutely, I'm in 100% agreement with that. There should be consequences for breaking international law, but there isn't and no one is keeping these dictators in check. A war should've been launched in 2014 with the illegal occupation of Crimea, but the world sort of turned a blind eye to it. Now with Ukraine, the world is still kind of hemming and hawing over it. Yes, there's far more pressure than there was in 2014, but the sanctions the Western powers have enacted are pretty weak all things considered and they're purely punitive. Sanctions should've been much sooner and way more severe than they currently are. Blocking wealthy people's money isn't going to do anything because if they're wealthy enough to be targeted, they're wealthy enough to find a way around it.

Putin's lap dog calls the invasion "genius".

Trump Calls Putin’s Ukraine Moves “Genius” Because He’s a Sick Man Who Hates Democracy

He also dubbed the Russian president “very savvy.”

www.vanityfair.com

This is truly disgusting. I know Trump has and does support the enemy, after all, he kissed up to Kim Jong-un, the Saudis (although several leaders have), the Taliban, and Putin, but this is pretty ridiculous. Pepperidge Farm certainly remembers when the GOP was the party of being anti-Russia and so do I. It wasn't even that long ago that the Stormin Mormon Mitt Romney said Russia was the biggest geopolitical threat, and while many of us laughed it off at the time, including Obama, I think it's time we admit he was right.

The GOP is going to look foolish when war breaks out, America gets drug into it, and American soldiers start dying.

 

[McLaren]

The GOP is going to look foolish when war breaks out, America gets drug into it, and American soldiers start dying.

You & I both know that'll depend on which party has Presidency.

 

[inCloud]

Russian people have a fundamentally different understanding of the situation

Not really. General population of Russia want peace and positive changes of their income(official statistics from gov. associated agency). And this is also what US wants - stable region with no treat to their allies.