Russian Invasion of Ukraine

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Azerbaijan and Iran dont like each other one bit. Even if they are the same religion Shia Islam.

One is Turkic and the other is Iranic. Iran also supported Armenia in the Karabag war while at the same time it supported separatist movements in Azerbaijan.

Azerbaijan is also close with Israel and Turkey.
I know there are a lot of Azeris (and Turks) in Iran but I don't really know the politics - I'd guess the animosity would be more political than cultural. Maybe you're right.

edit: I don't think relations between the two countries are nearly as bad as you say after looking into a bit more. They have been strained at times, but appear fairly normal now.

RE Ukraine - I'm pretty sure Russia intends to take the whole country. Maybe the Ukrainian government can maintain some western territory, but I'm pretty certain everything east of the Dnieper is falling, at least. That would give Russia control of the water supply to Crimea.
 
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I know there are a lot of Azeris (and Turks) in Iran but I don't really know the politics - I'd guess the animosity would be more political than cultural. Maybe you're right.

RE Ukraine - I'm pretty sure Russia intends to take the whole country. Maybe the Ukrainian government can maintain some western territory, but I'm pretty certain everything east of the Dnieper is falling, at least. That would give Russia control of the water supply to Crimea.
Historical and political sense the Turks and Iranians have always been enemies for centuries while at the same time they shared many cultural exchanges along with words.

Turkish has lots of Persian words and the Seljuks and Ottomans also influenced by Persian culture. Same with Azerbaijan. Azerbaijan was mainly ruled by Iranian Empires that had Turkic origin like the Safavids, Afsharids and the Qajars. Azerbaijan was also under the rule of the Seljuks and the Atabegs.

Turkish and Azerbaijani come from the same language branch.

Ukrainian, Russian and Belarusian come from the Eastern Slavic branch. Most likely all understand each other. I think Russian members and Ukrainian members here could also explain similarities of their languages between each other.
 
I mean a full invasion intent on taking over the country.
It's not clear that Russia actually wants to take over the entirety of Ukraine. It seems pretty unlikely, based on how much of a nightmare it would be to take and hold. Taking over the parts of it closest to Russia and which are most supportive of Russian rule, sure. But at that point Ukraine isn't faced with complete annihilation, just losing some of it's territory.
At some point, the west will have to fight.
Don't do this. Diplomacy is always an option. Fighting is only "mandatory" when it's that or death, and even then you can choose death. Making it sound like war is inevitable is just making excuses for the emotional response you want to have to the situation.

If Putin has managed to manoeuvre Russia into a geopolitical situation in which the best outcome for everyone is to cede the territory, then that's what should be done. There are times in chess when you get outplayed, and your choices are to sacrifice a pawn, a knight or a queen. You can attack if you want, but it just results in a worse situation than accepting the reality and playing for the best overall outcome.

This would suck for a whole lot of reasons and maybe it feels better to people on the outside to bang the drum and send the troops to war, but they're not the soldiers and civilians who are going to be displaced or killed on the ground. You shouldn't go to war just because you're angry.

It's entirely possible that the West is simply going to have to admit that they have been outplayed again, and that there's no reasonable way for them to "win" this round. They can chuck a tanty and send in a bunch of people to die, or they can make a plan to avoid ever ending up in this situation in the first place.
 
Considering these same groups shot down a commercial airliner? Yes.
Here's a graphical representation of the NOTAMs.



Alledgedly this is the NOTAM as published but I literally can't read it. All I recognize are GPS waypoints and altitude blocks but this isn't formatted the way domestic NOTAMs are so idk what's going on.

 
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It's not clear that Russia actually wants to take over the entirety of Ukraine. It seems pretty unlikely, based on how much of a nightmare it would be to take and hold. Taking over the parts of it closest to Russia and which are most supportive of Russian rule, sure. But at that point Ukraine isn't faced with complete annihilation, just losing some of it's territory.

Don't do this. Diplomacy is always an option. Fighting is only "mandatory" when it's that or death, and even then you can choose death. Making it sound like war is inevitable is just making excuses for the emotional response you want to have to the situation.

If Putin has managed to manoeuvre Russia into a geopolitical situation in which the best outcome for everyone is to cede the territory, then that's what should be done. There are times in chess when you get outplayed, and your choices are to sacrifice a pawn, a knight or a queen. You can attack if you want, but it just results in a worse situation than accepting the reality and playing for the best overall outcome.

This would suck for a whole lot of reasons and maybe it feels better to people on the outside to bang the drum and send the troops to war, but they're not the soldiers and civilians who are going to be displaced or killed on the ground. You shouldn't go to war just because you're angry.

It's entirely possible that the West is simply going to have to admit that they have been outplayed again, and that there's no reasonable way for them to "win" this round. They can chuck a tanty and send in a bunch of people to die, or they can make a plan to avoid ever ending up in this situation in the first place.
Russians are just hard people to be honest.

Russians dont take **** and the West should have known better but instead kept appeasing the Russians. Russians see that as a sign of weakness.

Russians because nobody wants to face them head on. Eastern European and Baltic countries need to devise a plan where they can fend for themselves.

When it comes to geopolitics nobody will sacrifice their interests just to defend you.
 
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Looks like things are kicking off:

Man those who said that Russia would not invade, boy oh boy did your comment age like milk.
 
Looks like things are kicking off:

Man those who said that Russia would not invade, boy oh boy did your comment age like milk.
Nah, no invasion, apparently Russia was "invited in".

And shelling near the airport where two foreign planes are located. I'm sure the foreign entity will be happy to hear about this!
 
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And shelling near the airport where two foreign planes are located. I'm sure the foreign entity will be happy to hear about this!
Probably not very close. CNN has aired live "explosions" from a rooftop in Kyiv about 30 minutes ago, audible but extremely distant. Presumably the same ones reported here. The Turkish planes are probably to bring diplomats and citizens home.
 
I think the only country Israel would allow to deploy Iron Dome is the USA, and even then I don't think they would like doing so. I don't think Israel wants Iron Dome falling into Russian hands...which would undoubtedly happen if they lent them to Ukraine. Russia isn't exactly best mates with Iran, but they do have an uneasy alliance.
Being tested now in Guam as of November.
 
Putin has authorized military operations within Ukraine.


Quite simply, 🤬, it's going down.
 


OMG!!

Ukrainian air defence system shot down a Russian SU24 Fencer jet.

Bloody hell this is getting hardcore every minute!!! Its a war. Its hard to believe!!
 
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You believe that Russia's agressive actions cause NATO to grow, but why don't you think vice versa - that NATO's expansion triggers Russia to respond? It started earlier.
What makes you think I don’t think it does? I absolutely think Russia is triggered by their neighbours turning away from them, but that doesn’t mean Russia is JUSTIFIED in behaving that way. Russia’s neighbours are justified in seeking NATO membership, because most of them have endured a long history of Russian occupation and oppression. Russia is not justified in occupying its neighbours.

The invasion of Ukraine is likely to make Sweden and Finland both join NATO, because now it’s painfully obvious to everyone that Russia can’t and shouldn’t be trusted.
 
Reportedly, Ukrainian Navy and Air Force do not exist anymore. The National Guard’s HQ is destroyed, too.


OMG!!

Ukrainian air defence system shot down a Russian SU24 Fencer jet.

Bloody hell this is getting hardcore every minute!!! Its a war. Its hard to believe!!

That’s what Ukraine says, the Russian MoD denies that claim. We’ll see later who is right.
What makes you think I don’t think it does? I absolutely think Russia is triggered by their neighbours turning away from them, but that doesn’t mean Russia is JUSTIFIED in behaving that way. Russia’s neighbours are justified in seeking NATO membership, because most of them have endured a long history of Russian occupation and oppression. Russia is not justified in occupying its neighbours.

The invasion of Ukraine is likely to make Sweden and Finland both join NATO, because now it’s painfully obvious to everyone that Russia can’t and shouldn’t be trusted.
That’s the main problem - mutual distrust. NATO doesn’t trust Russia, Russia doesn’t trust NATO and both have their reasons.
 
This is about to achieve a new system of collective security in a world where the United States and the British are no longer world commanders. Both sides don't trust each other. Hopefully it all ends peacefully. God bless all people.
 
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Cruise missiles, ballistic missiles and jet strikes, paratroopers and special forces. Russia is going full force for a quick victory. Ukraine simply doesn't have the ability to hold them off.
 
Don't do this. Diplomacy is always an option.

In the past 48 hours or so, Russia has gone from "we're not invading" to "we recognize these areas we claim are breaking away that we definitely had no hand in getting to breakaway" to "we're going in to prevent the bloodshed in these breakaway areas" to "we're going to completely remove the military of the entire country (you know, so everyone is safe) and if anyone even says anything to us about it they're going to feel pain you've never felt before;" all the while with the Putin/Trump's peanut gallery adjusting their story for why it is all justified or coming u with elaborate ways to claim it won't happen.




It doesn't seem like diplomacy was ever an actual option. Putin was so interested in a diplomatic solution to the problem of "Putin wants to annex more of the Ukraine" that he didn't even wait for the ink to dry on his peacekeeping proclamation before he started shelling the entire Ukrainian military.

It's entirely possible that the West is simply going to have to admit that they have been outplayed again, and that there's no reasonable way for them to "win" this round. They can chuck a tanty and send in a bunch of people to die, or they can make a plan to avoid ever ending up in this situation in the first place.
I'm sure in five months when Russia decides they want to go North or China wants to go East everyone will have the stomach to stop them then.
 
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That’s the main problem - mutual distrust. NATO doesn’t trust Russia, Russia doesn’t trust NATO and both have their reasons.
You got it wrong. It’s Russia’s neighbours that don’t trust Russia, that’s why they seek NATO membership. Unlike Russia, NATO doesn’t expand against the will of these countries.

Sure, Russia doesn’t trust NATO, that’s clear. But then they should work on building better relations with their neighbours instead of trying to bully them into submission. If you don’t want Ukraine to join NATO, offer them something better. Ultimately it’s their own choice to make and that is how it has to be.
 
Romania reports a Ukrainian Su-27 fighter entered their airspace running away from war, and forced to land. Reminds of the Afghan pilots who were running away to Uzbekistan in August…
Doesn't seem like diplomacy was ever an actual option. In fact, I'm pretty sure for diplomacy to ever be an option both sides need to be interested in it, and Putin was so interested in a diplomatic solution to the problem of "Putin wants to annex more of the Ukraine" that he didn't even wait for the ink to dry on his peacekeeping proclamation before he started shelling the entire Ukrainian military.
There was an diplomatic option. Russia repeatedly urged Ukraine to follow the Minsk agreements that were signed by RF, Ukraine and OSCE, and approved by the UN Security Council. But Kyiv simply ignored them for 7 years. And none of Ukraine’s allies even tried to make Kyiv comply with them. Now is too late.
 
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Romania reports a Ukrainian Su-27 fighter entered their airspace running away from war, and forced to land. Reminds of the Afghan pilots who were running away to Uzbekistan in August…

There was an diplomatic option. Russia repeatedly urged Ukraine to follow the Minsk agreements that were signed by RF, Ukraine and OSCE, and approved by the UN Security Council. But Kyiv simply ignored them for 7 years. And none of Ukraine’s allies even tried to make Kyiv comply with them. Now is too late.
That is, at best, a very one sided view of why the Minsk accords fell apart.

While Ukraine most certainly did ignore parts of the accords, Russia was not exactly snow-white either, lets not forget that:
We can then add in that Minsk II was poorly written, sufficiently so that it didn't include anything on Debaltseve, to the degree that as soon as Minks II was supposed to go into effect both sides (far-right paramilitaries Right Sector and the DPR) immediately said it didn't cover the city and carried on fighting!

Minsk is dead and buried, but to try and say it's just because of one side, when quite clearly both sides have undermined them, makes me suspect that it's a party line you are following.
 
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