Russian Invasion of Ukraine

[andrea]

 

[dacc10]

A war against Ukraine will be costly for Russia. How costly? Hard to know, but there's already footage of russian helicopters going down, plus russian tanks destroyed, and this in just a few hours. If Russia suffers heavy casualties, I don't see how Russian people can support this madness. Pair that, with heavy sactions and a complete isolation from the rest of the world. Depending on how this conflict unfolds, we might see in the future a split Russia, as not every territory in Russia is pro-Russia.

The West can't intervene, neither of the sides would want that. If there were US troops in Ukraine, this would lead to a huge conflict between two superpowers, with unthinkable consequences (possibly nuclear).

Btw, let's just get one thing clear: Ukraine never posed a threat to Russia. Is ilogical to think that a smaller/weaker/non-nuclear country would pose a threat to a nuclear superpower, period.

Now, and a bit off-topic, I would keep a close eye on China, who might take advantage of the world being distracted with the war on Ukraine, to invade Taiwan. Some other minor conflicts may occur as well.

 

[MatskiMonk]

Just going to throw it out there... The people of Belarus need to depose Lukashenko as soon as possible, like now. Belarus have been complicit in the attack and I'm struggling to image that the people of the country support it, given the suppression of democracy Lukashenko has enacted on them. They're also significantly at risk from sanctions from Europe as their single biggest trading partner.

 

[SestoScudo]

Dogfight between Russian and Ukrainian planes.

So many experts in the past have said dog fights are going the way of the dodo due to advancements in air to air missile technology.

 

[Rossell2]

So many thoughts swirling in my head here. I get the impression that Putin thinks he's brilliant enough that he's engaging in a 4D chess game he knows will win. I'm not convinced he can though. He may ultimately take Ukraine but the damage to Russia may be too much to really continue.

Also, after complaining about having Nato missiles at his door he now wants to get closer to them? The next step after Ukraine is to directly attack the EU. And by attacking the EU, he will come into conflict with Nato surely.

All the while China is watching and waiting to pick up any pieces they can. They don't exactly have Russia's back by the sounds. Russia has Belarus and Kyrgistan, both of which have a civilian population who don't like their government. Plus while Hitler had the whole country behind him, I can't really say the same for Moscow.

Just some mad ramblings as I try to unpick this in my head please ignore if I'm talking rubbish.

 

[inCloud]

Putin thinks

After what happened today I think this isnt the case. It doesn't make sense in long term. We have enough resources to struggle for few years, but it was suicide move.

 

[TheCracker]

Plus while Hitler had the whole country behind him, I can't really say the same for Moscow.

Hitler had a large portion of the population behind known aspects of what he was trying to do. Plenty didn't agree but were too scared to say anything against the regime so went along with it.

I imagine things are not that different in Russia.

 

[andrea]

Btw, let's just get one thing clear: Ukraine never posed a threat to Russia. Is ilogical to think that a smaller/weaker/non-nuclear country would pose a threat to a nuclear superpower, period.

Probably exactly that poses a threat. that they can be independent without nuclear, army or being a major aggressor.

 

[McLaren]

A report in the last hour from Ukraine asking its citizens to not post any video/image containing Ukraine troops as not to jeopardize their positions. However, asking them to share (safely) any footage of Russian troops.

Twitter reportedly suspending accounts sharing said videos.

 

[dacc10]

Makes sense. Revealing their positions will pretty much make them an easy target, specially when they are taking defensive positions. International media on the field have been asked to stop filming as well.

 

[andrea]

Cost on Russia:

Deployment of the troops, Russian casualties, wreckage of the equipment, how many billion dollars?
Sanctions, near term and long term, how many billions?
Russian ruble tanking, loss of international business, how many billions today alone?
Psychosocial and cultural effects on the whole world in the long term causing migration from Russia and diminished willingness to conduct business with Russia, and other effects, how many billions.

 

[SestoScudo]

Cost on Russia:

Deployment of the troops, Russian casualties, wreckage of the equipment, how many billion dollars?
Sanctions, near term and long term, how many billions?
Russian ruble tanking, loss of international business, how many billions today alone?
Psychosocial and cultural effects on the whole world in the long term causing migration from Russia and diminished willingness to conduct business with Russia, and other effects, how many billions.

Putin is gambling on a quick victory. Either it will pay off with a win if not him getting bogged down is much worse because prolonging a war in the long run comes with enormous costs.

Its make or break for Putin but Russian attacks have only intensified its only going to worse from here as Russia has only got started.

 

[MatskiMonk]

B-52 and an E-8 along with re-fuelling aircraft holding above Poland, with another B-52 going elsewhere?

 

[Blitz24]

B-52 and an E-8 along with re-fuelling aircraft holding above Poland, with another B-52 going elsewhere?

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Other one MIGHT be going to Estonia.

 

[dacc10]

Yup, likely heading to or near one of the three Baltic states.

 

[Dennisch]

Seeing plenty of footage online of civilian areas being hit one after another. I hope that the Russians can't get enough body bags for their invading forces.

 

[Blitz24]

Of course this would happen. Why should Putin care about Belarussians any more than he cares about Ukrainians?

 

[SestoScudo]

Russian Su25 Frogfoots

 

[Veinz]

R/combatfootage is being flooded with videos. I feel sick.

 

[Danoff]

Let's just hope that this sours everyone, including people in the US, on further military action. I can only hope Putin ends up channeling Joe Exotic.

 

[Imari]

Dogfight between Russian and Ukrainian planes.

So many experts in the past have said dog fights are going the way of the dodo due to advancements in air to air missile technology.

Those "experts" have been wrong for a long time because while the technology allows for kills from very long range, people with actual knowledge are aware that military doctrine almost always requires visual identification of a target before firing which means closing to dogfight range. Just because missiles can be fired from beyond visual range doesn't mean that you're allowed to.

A war like this with hardware that is modern or nearly so may be the thing to turn that around, although I'd expect Russia to establish air superiority so quickly for it to hardly matter.

Also, after complaining about having Nato missiles at his door he now wants to get closer to them? The next step after Ukraine is to directly attack the EU. And by attacking the EU, he will come into conflict with Nato surely.

The point is probably not to bring Ukrainian territory into Russia directly, he'll probably just install a puppet government. One that is more robust than Yanokovich was. That way it'll be like Belarus, still a buffer between Russia and the EU but practically speaking under the control of Russia.

B-52 and an E-8 along with re-fuelling aircraft holding above Poland, with another B-52 going elsewhere?

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Yeah, even if NATO isn't going to enter Ukraine you'd have to imagine that they'll be moving troops and materiel into NATO countries that will be on the front line when Ukraine falls. I don't imagine it's super comfortable in Poland, Romania, Slovakia, Hungary, Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia at the moment.

 

[PeterJB]

They're now going after Chernobyl. Now would be a good time for the Ukrainians to unleash the hoard of mutant Chernobylians they've obviously been hiding there for the past 36 years, Walking Dead-style.

 

[Scaff]

I don't imagine it's super comfortable in Poland, Romania, Slovakia, Hungary, Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia at the moment.

Speaking to a Polish friend earlier today, they are very, very concerned about it. Nervous is a massive understatement for the Polish mood right now based on what they were saying.

 

[SestoScudo]

Those "experts" have been wrong for a long time because while the technology allows for kills from very long range, people with actual knowledge are aware that military doctrine almost always requires visual identification of a target before firing which means closing to dogfight range. Just because missiles can be fired from beyond visual range doesn't mean that you're allowed to.

A war like this with hardware that is modern or nearly so may be the thing to turn that around, although I'd expect Russia to establish air superiority so quickly for it to hardly matter.

The point is probably not to bring Ukrainian territory into Russia directly, he'll probably just install a puppet government. One that is more robust than Yanokovich was. That way it'll be like Belarus, still a buffer between Russia and the EU but practically speaking under the control of Russia.


Yeah, even if NATO isn't going to enter Ukraine you'd have to imagine that they'll be moving troops and materiel into NATO countries that will be on the front line when Ukraine falls. I don't imagine it's super comfortable in Poland, Romania, Slovakia, Hungary, Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia at the moment.

Russia did some airstrikes in Ukraine that is close to the Polish border. Russians whatever experience they got in Syria is being applied here as Russia also did airstrikes in Syria that was close to the Turkish border.

They are sending a message also testing waters. Lets see if they will violate any airspace.

 

[McLaren]

This is from the DailyMail, but cites 150+ senior Russian officials have condemned the invasion.

More than 150 senior Russian officials have signed an open letter condemning Vladimir Putin's invasion of Ukraine as 'an unprecedented atrocity' and warning of 'catastrophic consequences'.

The deputies said they were 'convinced' Russian citizens do not back the war and blamed Putin 'personally' for ordering troops into Ukraine in an attack 'for which there is no and cannot be justification'.

The letter urged Russians 'not to participate in the aggression' and called on citizens to speak out against the invasion because 'only massive popular condemnation can stop the war'.

Among the letter's signatories were Moscow deputies Elena Rusakova, Maxim Gongalsky, Andrey Morev, Elena Kotenochkina and Elena Filina as well as St Petersburg officials David Kuvaev and Polina Sizova and Veliky Novgorod deputy Anna Cherepanova.

Over 150 Russian officials sign letter condemning invasion of Ukraine

The deputies said they were 'convinced' Russian citizens do not back the war and blamed Putin 'personally' for ordering an invasion, warning it will lead to 'catastrophic consequences'.

www.dailymail.co.uk

It would be interesting to hear from our 2 Russian members if they are aware of senior officials actually making such remarks, or if any of these people hold significant influence.

 

[Joey D]

R/combatfootage is being flooded with videos. I feel sick.

Jesus, I just started looking at that and saw videos of Russian planes shooting air-to-ground missiles in what is clearly civilian areas...unless of course, the Ukrainians have started enlisting babies.

This is from the DailyMail, but cites 150+ senior Russian officials have condemned the invasion.

Hopefully, they aren't standing near any windows or drinking any tea.

 

[andrea]

 

[Blitz24]

Jesus, I just started looking at that and saw videos of Russian planes shooting air-to-ground missiles in what is clearly civilian areas...unless of course, the Ukrainians have started enlisting babies.

Hopefully, they aren't standing near any windows or drinking any tea.

Probably will be ex-Russian officials now.

 

[dacc10]

They're now going after Chernobyl. Now would be a good time for the Ukrainians to unleash the hoard of mutant Chernobylians they've obviously been hiding there for the past 36 years, Walking Dead-style.

Jokes aside, it's concerning that they are battling near the Chernobyl Power Plant. If the cover is damaged, nearby countries might get hit with a "cloud" of radiation, making this even more a concern for the whole Europe.

 

[TexRex]

I am still not convinced there will be an attack.

I don't trust the Democrats, or the press. You guys seem to forget they both lied for four years about Trump being some kind Russian agent.

Turns out genetic fallacy steeped in whiny Trumper grievance isn't the sturdiest of foundations.

Man those who said that Russia would not invade, boy oh boy did your comment age like milk.

I mean...

We, the "normal" people, are all in for Trump. Best economy, best everything. Just waiting to see you guys screaming in the streets on November 4th, 2020.