Russian Invasion of Ukraine

  • Thread starter Rage Racer
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Joey D
Honestly, at this point, nothing Russia is doing is really making a ton of sense. But seeing your edit, that does seem like the logical explanation considering Belarus is just Russia Jr. at this point and is all-in on the invasion.
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Similar topic, because I saw /CombatFootage brought up, awful to read the theories (that I have no doubt have merit behind them) that Belarusian troops are likely being sent in at the front.
 
Danoff
All this talk of dogfights...

Does Russia not have drones?
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It does, but they will always be limited compared to an ordinary fighter aircraft. Their performance is limited compared to manned planes (slower, less agile, limited payload, less situational awareness).

Keef
That's not really how stealth works lol. The missiles aren't stealth and lock-ons are detectable. Our stealth planes can penetrate to advantageous positions and make the enemy's job a lot harder but they're not invisible.
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In direct air-to-air confrontation, imposes an advantage, allowing the stealth plane to not only detect first, but also engage first. Yes, the missile fired is not stealth, but the target will only detect the missile, and proceed to evasive maneuvers, without being able to fire it's own missiles.

SestoScudo
Still no reports of the Sukhoi SU57 being used despite being declared operational.

Mig 29s, Su35s and Su25s are being used by Russia which is the bread and butter of their airforce.
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Russia possibly using their SU-27/SU-30 as well, as they are more numerous than the SU-35. Possibly SU-24 thrown into the mix.

They probably won't risk such a new plane, as the SU-57. If one goes down, they risk the West getting access to it. Plus, they already have air superiority.
 
SestoScudo
F35 and the F22 do have rhe ability to take out a plane before that plane even sees them.

Dogfights as a doctrine has still not gone away because there could be a time where pilots may have to face each other as a last resort. Air forces nowadays are trying to keep their pilots away from dogfights but have not done away with the concept.

You know losing a pilot along with a plane is millions gone down the drain hence why its best to keep them alive. But also training them for a dogfight is also what could save them because you dont want to send pilots who cant fight off another plane no matter how much comfortable technology can be.
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Pilots will still be and should still be trained for dogfights yes, but at the same time the state of technology shouldn't be underestimated. Vietnam gets cited a lot as proof of the fallibility of missiles yet even in that war the unreliable and low tech missiles of the time were more useful than guns.

It's not impossible that modern planes engage in close air combat but HOBS missiles almost negate the maneuverability of aircraft when they come within a few miles of each other. And before those come into play you need to account for Electronic Warfare. Who has the best vision will gain an advantage.
Danoff
All this talk of dogfights...

Does Russia not have drones?
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They have a handful but not as many as the US. Russia is till trying to recover from the collapse of the USSR. They have a lot of ideas and projects but have lacked the funding to bring many of them to fruition. Typically they will have a handful of cutting edge units supported by numerous older ones. For example, comparing the US to Russia in terms of fighters:

Advanced fighter
F-22 (US ~180) - Su-57 (RU ~ 5)
Modern Fighter
F-15 (US ~ 300) - Su-35 (RU ~ 100)
Light Fighter
F-16 (US ~1000) - MiG-29 (RU ~ 300)

Keef
That's not really how stealth works lol. The missiles aren't stealth and lock-ons are detectable. Our stealth planes can penetrate to advantageous positions and make the enemy's job a lot harder but they're not invisible.
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Stealth is often conflated with invisibility, which it is not. The military likes the term VLO (Very Low Observability). However it is possible to attack without being detected. Radar and weapons were considered in the development of 5th gen fighters. AESA radars are built around LPI (Low Probability of Intercept) signals which can allow the tracking of targets without a detectable radar lock.

Russia actually has some capability in this area, but through a different technology path. They invested more into Optic and IR sensors and missiles which are harder to detect than radar guided ones, but with the introduction of MAWS that detect missile launches this advantage has eroded somewhat.
 
Danoff
It would be interesting if the US were to invoke selective availability with GPS. I wonder how feasible that is at this point. Perhaps it's best if everyone in the world just continues to forget that the US holds the switch on GPS, otherwise it will become even more of a target. But it's odd to think that Russia is using US DoD resources to coordinate their efforts here.
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Russia has their own completely different GNSS system called GLONASS. It's completely independent from ours.
 
Keef
Russia has their own completely different GNSS system called GLONASS. It's completely independent from ours.
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GLONASS is typically used to augment GPS rather than as a stand-alone system. It lacks the coverage and accuracy of GPS. It might be better than GPS with selective availability turned on, but I'm not 100% sure about that.
 
Exorcet
They have a handful but not as many as the US. Russia is till trying to recover from the collapse of the USSR. They have a lot of ideas and projects but have lacked the funding to bring many of them to fruition. Typically they will have a handful of cutting edge units supported by numerous older ones. For example, comparing the US to Russia in terms of fighters:

Advanced fighter
F-22 (US ~180) - Su-57 (RU ~ 5)
Modern Fighter
F-15 (US ~ 300) - Su-35 (RU ~ 100)
Light Fighter
F-16 (US ~1000) - MiG-29 (RU ~ 300)
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I saw one recently that's said to be many years out called the Su-75 Checkmate. What is that related to, US-wise? Had a huge presentation about being a completely stealth, AI-assisted, weapon-contained aircraft.
 
GranTurNismo
Trump praises Putin for the second time this week, calls the Russian invasion "very smart".

www.marketwatch.com

Donald Trump praises 'pretty smart' Vladimir Putin for Russia's Ukraine invasion

While world leaders have widely condemned Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, former President Donald Trump instead praised Vladimir Putin
www.marketwatch.com www.marketwatch.com
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If only Biden hadn't stolen the election, Putin would never have dared do this if Trump were president of the US. Even though Trump loves the Ukraine invasion, and think's Putin is great, Trump's massive manhood would have put the idea right out of Putin's mind. [/s]
 
GranTurNismo
Trump praises Putin for the second time this week, calls the Russian invasion "very smart".

www.marketwatch.com

Donald Trump praises 'pretty smart' Vladimir Putin for Russia's Ukraine invasion

While world leaders have widely condemned Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, former President Donald Trump instead praised Vladimir Putin
www.marketwatch.com www.marketwatch.com
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I'm purely spitballing here, but I do have to wonder if any of the documents that Trump destroyed and/or has been trying so hard to keep from anyone had/have anything to do with Russia? If that's uncovered it's going to be an absolute 🤬 show.

Why can't the Republican Party just get back to the good old Reagan days of hating Russia with every fiber of their being?
 
Danoff
If only Biden hadn't stolen the election, Putin would never have dared do this if Trump were president of the US. Even though Trump loves the Ukraine invasion, and think's Putin is great, Trump's massive manhood would have put the idea right out of Putin's mind. [/s]
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I mean, if one takes away the humanitarian and disgusting image of war, he's right that Putin's move is brilliant. The problem is Trump is probably not thinking that way so we can ignore the 4D chess.
 
McLaren
I saw one recently that's said to be many years out called the Su-75 Checkmate. What is that related to, US-wise? Had a huge presentation about being a completely stealth, AI-assisted, weapon-contained aircraft.
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The Su-75 is roughly analogous to the F-35, which is to the F-22 what the F-16 is to the F-15. A lower cost, but cutting edge fighter intended to make up large number of an air force's units.

The Su-75 being new also potentially allows it to incorporate newer technologies more easily than existing fighters, but the plane itself is still early in development and Russia is showing it off likely in an attempt to gain partners to fund the project. They were really hoping India would assist with the Su-57 but this did not happen.
 
near Chernobyl

1645722752506.png
 
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Blitz24
I mean, if one takes away the humanitarian and disgusting image of war, he's right that Putin's move is brilliant.
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I struggle to see the angle from which it is brilliant. It is strategic, for sure, but it's a losing game. Brilliant would be making sure that standard of living is rising, making sure that people are prosperous and comfortable, making sure that humanity is moving forward to a better future. This power struggle is dumb.
 
Exorcet
The Su-75 is roughly analogous to the F-35, which is to the F-22 what the F-16 is to the F-15. A lower cost, but cutting edge fighter intended to make up large number of an air force's units.

The Su-75 being new also potentially allows it to incorporate newer technologies more easily than existing fighters, but the plane itself is still early in development and Russia is showing it off likely in an attempt to gain partners to fund the project. They were really hoping India would assist with the Su-57 but this did not happen.
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Ah, so it's their own Fat Svetlana, then. Gotcha.
 
Video of Russian equipment destroyed and a dead Russian soldier on the ground. Wont be sharing due to its graphic nature.

There was also a video which showed to be a few dozen Ukrainian soldiers killed wont be sharing that either.

A Cyclist who was just going by his or her normal day getting killed in the crossfire is pretty heartbreaking.
 
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Scaff
Doubtful, but it may well encourage Turkey to close the Black Sea to Russian ships

www.aljazeera.com

Ukraine asks Turkey to shut Black Sea waterways to Russian ships

Ambassador Vasyl Bodnar says Kyiv has called on Ankara to close ‘the airspace, Bosphorus and Dardanelles straits’.
www.aljazeera.com www.aljazeera.com
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Reuters is reporting it, so it seems credible.

It seems like Putin was really hoping that some sort of ruse or pretext was going to pan out and provide sufficient justification for invading Ukraine, but it clearly wasn't going to stop him from doing it because the "justification" never became compelling nor even clearly articulated. It's been a kind of incoherent and inconsistent message with extremely dubious timelines. Make no mistake, this is nothing more than a naked land/power grab and it should be fully transparent to even Russians.
 
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Turkey has wanted to remain neutral in this, as far as I'm aware. Attacking one of their civilian ships, resulting in convincing them to close the Black Sea to Russia seems like a good way for them to pick a side.

Also, according to BusinessInsider, Turkey ranks 10th amongst the strongest military forces so doesn't seem like a sensible country to screw with.
 
Danoff
GLONASS is typically used to augment GPS rather than as a stand-alone system. It lacks the coverage and accuracy of GPS. It might be better than GPS with selective availability turned on, but I'm not 100% sure about that.
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For civilian purposes yes, they can work together. But for government/military purposes, just like GPS, the system can be completely independent and fully under Russian control. All their satellite targeting systems and whatnot are using their own GLONASS, not GPS. I wouldn't discount the accuracy of the system, especially now that we're seeing it work just fine.

 
Keef
For civilian purposes yes, they can work together. But for government/military purposes, just like GPS, the system can be completely independent and fully under Russian control. All their satellite targeting systems and whatnot are using their own GLONASS, not GPS.
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For civilian purposes you can use GLONASS on its own too, you just wouldn't want to. Are you sure that their targeting systems do not use a hybrid between GLONASS and GPS? I wouldn't expect them to ditch GPS signals, even if selective availability were enabled.
Keef
I wouldn't discount the accuracy of the system, especially now that we're seeing it work just fine.
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Its accuracy and availability is significantly below GPS. When you have a perfect satellite lock, which is significantly less often the case with GLONASS alone, the accuracy is worse than GPS but better than GPS with selective availability turned on. In general though, I have to wonder how accuracy and availability stack up against GPS with SA enabled, because GPS satellite lock is going to be more frequent.
 
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GranTurNismo
Trump praises Putin for the second time this week, calls the Russian invasion "very smart".

www.marketwatch.com

Donald Trump praises 'pretty smart' Vladimir Putin for Russia's Ukraine invasion

While world leaders have widely condemned Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, former President Donald Trump instead praised Vladimir Putin
www.marketwatch.com www.marketwatch.com
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this must be an eye-opener even for Trump voters

McLaren
Turkey has wanted to remain neutral in this, as far as I'm aware. Attacking one of their civilian ships, resulting in convincing them to close the Black Sea to Russia seems like a good way for them to pick a side.

Also, according to BusinessInsider, Turkey ranks 10th amongst the strongest military forces so doesn't seem like a sensible country to screw with.
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Turkey is also NATO member, so I'm not sure how Turkey army engaging Russian army would be seen.
 
The only people who can get rid of Putin are unhappy, well informed Russians. What we now need is not only the half arsed sanctions from the EU, US and others, but also UEFA, FIFA, the FIA, Liberty, the IOC and all those other spineless money grabbers to say enough. Ban all teams from Europe, ban all games, races and events in Russia. Let the Russians realise that their tiny dicktator is the one who ****ed it all up for them. They're still being brainwashed by their state owned media, but let them try to explain why all of the sudden there are no international games and events anymore.
 

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