Russian Invasion of Ukraine

[Veinz]

Jesus, I just started looking at that and saw videos of Russian planes shooting air-to-ground missiles in what is clearly civilian areas...

That video in particular really stood out to me.

 

[Joey D]

Jokes aside, it's concerning that they are battling near the Chernobyl Power Plant. If the cover is damaged, nearby countries might get hit with a "cloud" of radiation, making this even more a concern for the whole Europe.

 

[MatskiMonk]

I don't imagine it's super comfortable in Poland, Romania, Slovakia, Hungary, Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia at the moment.

Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania and Poland have triggered Article 4 of the NATO treaty to signal that they are threatened by a foreign nation. It doesn't signify a request for military force, but it would seem to make it more likely NATO will fortify its Russian/Belarusian borders.

but cites 150+ senior Russian officials have condemned the invasion.

 

[Nielsen]

Why on earth would anyone want to seize control over Chernobyl? That’s like the biggest cesspit one could possibly acquire.

 

[Exorcet]

Those "experts" have been wrong for a long time because while the technology allows for kills from very long range, people with actual knowledge are aware that military doctrine almost always requires visual identification of a target before firing which means closing to dogfight range. Just because missiles can be fired from beyond visual range doesn't mean that you're allowed to.

It's a bit more complex than that. Visual identification through ranged sensors have been available for decades now, so even under strict ROE you can avoid getting into dogfight range. Additionally dogfight missiles have advanced to the point where a turning fight shouldn't last long, if one even starts at all. They have huge engagement envelopes. Then you have modern datalinks which make it much much easier to keep track of friendlies from a distance. Back in 1991 the US was already authorizing weapons used based on radar contacts alone. While both Russia and Ukraine have to deal with some dated aircraft and weapons in their inventory which might hinder the range that they can ID targets at, they should have a decent amount of R-73 based missiles as it was developed before the collapse of the USSR. Even today the early forms of these missiles are pretty threatening in close.

On the video itself, I'm not sure what is actually going on there. It's hard to identify who the planes belong to. They're both MiG-29's but I'm not even sure if they are carrying weapons. Typically soviet based AA weapons are bright white and the MiG has 6 underwing hardpoints. They'd usually carry a mix of R-27 and R-73 missiles, the former should be pretty easy to see hanging under the wings. The video quality is not great though.

 

[McLaren]

Are they trying to seize it, or engaging because Ukrainian troops are present? There was a story an hour or so ago that a nuclear waste storage facility was destroyed.

 

[Jezza819]

Putin is gambling on a quick victory. Either it will pay off with a win if not him getting bogged down is much worse because prolonging a war in the long run comes with enormous costs.

Its make or break for Putin but Russian attacks have only intensified its only going to worse from here as Russia has only got started.

If he does get a quick victory, I wonder who's next on his shopping list? Georgia? I know they had some problems a few years ago.

 

[Michael88]

Jokes aside, it's concerning that they are battling near the Chernobyl Power Plant. If the cover is damaged, nearby countries might get hit with a "cloud" of radiation, making this even more a concern for the whole Europe.

Or any fires in that area caused by ammunitions. The fire brigade in that area wont be able to do anything about that for the time being.

 

[Greycap]

Jesus, I just started looking at that and saw videos of Russian planes shooting air-to-ground missiles in what is clearly civilian areas...unless of course, the Ukrainians have started enlisting babies.

Nothing new when it's Russians we're dealing with. During the Interim Pecase during WW2 their aircraft shot down a Finnish civilian airliner, and their partisans were notoriously well known for doing strikes at civilian villages. Putin seems to be continuing on his beloved Stalin's path.

Kaleva (airplane) - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

Soviet partisans in Finland - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

 

[Haverstaken]

This is sad.
I guess we'll never learn. 😔

 

[Joey D]

Are they trying to seize it, or engaging because Ukrainian troops are present? There was a story an hour or so ago that a nuclear waste storage facility was destroyed.

I'm not sure, but it wouldn't be the first time Russia has instigated an attack against Chernobyl.

Chernobyl's radiation monitoring system has been hit by the worldwide cyber attack

Monitoring is now being performed manually, Ukrainian authorities said

www.independent.co.uk

Technically, I think the power plant could become operational again. While part of it is decommissioned and it hasn't produced electricity since 2000, I believe many of the pieces are still in place.

Nothing new when it's Russians we're dealing with. During the Interim Pecase during WW2 their aircraft shot down a Finnish civilian airliner, and their partisans were notoriously well known for doing strikes at civilian villages. Putin seems to be continuing on his beloved Stalin's path.

Kaleva (airplane) - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

Soviet partisans in Finland - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

No doubt, there are videos that show a bunch of civilians being targeted and it's likely going to get much, much worse before it gets better. While not the main objective, I'm guessing Putin would rather wipe out the Ukrainian population and resettle the area with Russians that support him. If nothing else, taking out civilians would mean there's way less of a chance for them to rebel too. This is going to turn into a humanitarian disaster.

 

[Blitz24]

I'm not sure, but it wouldn't be the first time Russia has instigated an attack against Chernobyl.

Chernobyl's radiation monitoring system has been hit by the worldwide cyber attack

Monitoring is now being performed manually, Ukrainian authorities said

www.independent.co.uk

Technically, I think the power plant could become operational again. While part of it is decommissioned and it hasn't produced electricity since 2000, I believe many of the pieces are still in place.

No doubt, there are videos that show a bunch of civilians being targeted and it's likely going to get much, much worse before it gets better. While not the main objective, I'm guessing Putin would rather wipe out the Ukrainian population and resettle the area with Russians that support him. If nothing else, taking out civilians would mean there's way less of a chance for them to rebel too. This is going to turn into a humanitarian disaster.

All is good for Putin. He doesn't seem to care about any humans, other than ones he can exploit and manipulate.

 

[Famine]

Seeing plenty of footage online of civilian areas being hit one after another. I hope that the Russians can't get enough body bags for their invading forces.

They have mobile crematoriums. No need for body bags and no evidence left behind.

 

[McLaren]

I'm not sure, but it wouldn't be the first time Russia has instigated an attack against Chernobyl.

Chernobyl's radiation monitoring system has been hit by the worldwide cyber attack

Monitoring is now being performed manually, Ukrainian authorities said

www.independent.co.uk

Technically, I think the power plant could become operational again. While part of it is decommissioned and it hasn't produced electricity since 2000, I believe many of the pieces are still in place.

I don't see where it makes sense, though. If it was operational again, people would still have to stay & expose themselves to maintain it, no?


Briefly reading from others commenting on it elsewhere, it seems if the NSC was hit, there would be a high amount of radiation release, but the dust kicked up would not exceed much beyond the boundaries already known. There are two fuel storage areas though, that could be problematic, but they're not in the immediate vicinity. The general agreement was that Russia would know better than intentionally target the area as they would be responsible for cleaning it up & exposing their own to it.

Edit* From what I'm reading, looks like the only reason Russians are there is because it's the easiest route from Belarus to Ukraine.

 

[inCloud]

This is from the DailyMail, but cites 150+ senior Russian officials have condemned the invasion.

Over 150 Russian officials sign letter condemning invasion of Ukraine

The deputies said they were 'convinced' Russian citizens do not back the war and blamed Putin 'personally' for ordering an invasion, warning it will lead to 'catastrophic consequences'.

www.dailymail.co.uk

It would be interesting to hear from our 2 Russian members if they are aware of senior officials actually making such remarks, or if any of these people hold significant influence.

189. Municipal deputies, few familiar names as I am from StPeterburg.

 

[Keef]

B-52 and an E-8 along with re-fuelling aircraft holding above Poland, with another B-52 going elsewhere?

View attachment 1116998

View attachment 1116995
View attachment 1116996

I don't doubt the US would directly support actual NATO and EU members. I also highly doubt Russia would attack any of them for that reason. As for the B-52 headed north, I assume it's headed to a staging area in Sweden. These flights are public knowledge so Russia is watching them. I doubt that northern B-52 has anything to do with Kaliningrad because that's the most heavily defended plot of dirt in all of Europe. An eye for an eye though...if Russia wants a piece of Ukraine, maybe the rest take a piece of Russia? Doubtful. Nobody in Europe is prepared for that.



Posturing. Ukraine will prevail, as in it will continue to exist in a much smaller form that it did a couple days ago. NATO and EU don't actually care.

 

[SestoScudo]

It's a bit more complex than that. Visual identification through ranged sensors have been available for decades now, so even under strict ROE you can avoid getting into dogfight range. Additionally dogfight missiles have advanced to the point where a turning fight shouldn't last long, if one even starts at all. They have huge engagement envelopes. Then you have modern datalinks which make it much much easier to keep track of friendlies from a distance. Back in 1991 the US was already authorizing weapons used based on radar contacts alone. While both Russia and Ukraine have to deal with some dated aircraft and weapons in their inventory which might hinder the range that they can ID targets at, they should have a decent amount of R-73 based missiles as it was developed before the collapse of the USSR. Even today the early forms of these missiles are pretty threatening in close.

On the video itself, I'm not sure what is actually going on there. It's hard to identify who the planes belong to. They're both MiG-29's but I'm not even sure if they are carrying weapons. Typically soviet based AA weapons are bright white and the MiG has 6 underwing hardpoints. They'd usually carry a mix of R-27 and R-73 missiles, the former should be pretty easy to see hanging under the wings. The video quality is not great though.

F35 and the F22 do have rhe ability to take out a plane before that plane even sees them.

Dogfights as a doctrine has still not gone away because there could be a time where pilots may have to face each other as a last resort. Air forces nowadays are trying to keep their pilots away from dogfights but have not done away with the concept.

You know losing a pilot along with a plane is millions gone down the drain hence why its best to keep them alive. But also training them for a dogfight is also what could save them because you dont want to send pilots who cant fight off another plane no matter how much comfortable technology can be.

 

[Danoff]

All this talk of dogfights...

Does Russia not have drones?

 

[Keef]

F35 and the F22 do have rhe ability to take out a plane before that plane even sees them.

That's not really how stealth works lol. The missiles aren't stealth and lock-ons are detectable. Our stealth planes can penetrate to advantageous positions and make the enemy's job a lot harder but they're not invisible.

 

[Nielsen]

I don't see where it makes sense, though. If it was operational again, people would still have to stay & expose themselves to maintain it, no?

Only one of the reactors exploded in 1986, which was then sealed off to contain most of the radiation. The rest of the power plant was kept active for another 15 years or so, so restarting it doesn’t pose an immediate health hazard. However, it was closed down permantly because the reactor types used there weren’t very safe to begin with. Restarting the plant could be used as bargaining chip against the EU. There was a similar nuclear plant named Ignalina in one of the Baltic countries. Closing that plant was a condition for granting EU membership.

 

[inCloud]

All this talk of dogfights...

Does Russia not have drones?

Army of FEDORs.

Afaik,we have, but they suck.

 

[Blitz24]

Only one of the reactors exploded in 1986, which was then sealed off to contain most of the radiation. The rest of the power plant was kept active for another 15 years or so, so restarting it doesn’t pose an immediate health hazard. However, it was closed down permantly because the reactor types used there weren’t very safe to begin with. Restarting the plant could be used as bargaining chip against the EU. There was a similar nuclear plant named Ignalina in one of the Baltic countries. Closing that plant was a condition for granting EU membership.

If they are trying to restart the still somewhat functioning reactors, then yes there is some benefit. However, if they actually destroy the sealant on the contained reactor...

 

[SestoScudo]

All this talk of dogfights...

Does Russia not have drones?

Yeah they do have drones they use the Orlan 10 while Sukhoi S70 is in development. There might be more but I dont really know because Russia's drones seem to be limited compared to other countries like the USA, Israel, Turkey and China.

 

[Nielsen]

If they are trying to restart the still somewhat functioning reactors, then yes there is some benefit. However, if they actually destroy the sealant on the contained reactor...

Do you think they would destroy it intentionally? That would be close to suicide for the troops trying to take control, and equally bad for both Western Europe and Russia.

 

[SestoScudo]

Still no reports of the Sukhoi SU57 being used despite being declared operational.

Mig 29s, Su35s and Su25s are being used by Russia which is the bread and butter of their airforce.

 

[McLaren]

Only one of the reactors exploded in 1986, which was then sealed off to contain most of the radiation. The rest of the power plant was kept active for another 15 years or so, so restarting it doesn’t pose an immediate health hazard. However, it was closed down permantly because the reactor types used there weren’t very safe to begin with. Restarting the plant could be used as bargaining chip against the EU. There was a similar nuclear plant named Ignalina in one of the Baltic countries. Closing that plant was a condition for granting EU membership.

I assumed the area itself was still considered uninhabitable, so anyone working in it would still be exposed each time they returned. But, a quick Wiki check does correct me that a ton of people still actively work in the zone in long on-off shifts.

I still think Russia knows better than to screw with it at all & the reports really show they're only in the area on route to somewhere else.

 

[Joey D]

I don't see where it makes sense, though. If it was operational again, people would still have to stay & expose themselves to maintain it, no?


Briefly reading from others commenting on it elsewhere, it seems if the NSC was hit, there would be a high amount of radiation release, but the dust kicked up would not exceed much beyond the boundaries already known. There are two fuel storage areas though, that could be problematic, but they're not in the immediate vicinity. The general agreement was that Russia would know better than intentionally target the area as they would be responsible for cleaning it up & exposing their own to it.

Edit* From what I'm reading, looks like the only reason Russians are there is because it's the easiest route from Belarus to Ukraine.

Honestly, at this point, nothing Russia is doing is really making a ton of sense. But seeing your edit, that does seem like the logical explanation considering Belarus is just Russia Jr. at this point and is all-in on the invasion.

 

[Danoff]

It would be interesting if the US were to invoke selective availability with GPS. I wonder how feasible that is at this point. Perhaps it's best if everyone in the world just continues to forget that the US holds the switch on GPS, otherwise it will become even more of a target. But it's odd to think that Russia is using US DoD resources to coordinate their efforts here.

 

[Michael88]

One thing I have noticed in all the footage is that nearly none of the Russian combat vehicles have been made safe against even the simplest anti tank weapons. All those BMP's don't have any cages or skirts and even the tanks don't seem to have reactive armor.
So they can be taken out by the simplest RPG. This is weird.

 

[Liquid]

I am sure a lot of Russia's soldiers aren't that willing to die over Ukraine. This does indeed look like Putin wants a swift, decisive outcome and he wants it quickly. 🤬 or bust.

Should probably change the thread title by now. It's a full-on invasion.