Russian Invasion of Ukraine

[Rage Racer]

@Rage Racer ; please remove the corpse picture... if indeed that's what it shows. Certainly the caption describes it as such. Whatever side that's still just someone like us.

As to the rest; Russian TV has already announced the winner, so that's good

It's not (but OK, I did). The TV even told "nobody was seriously wounded". Looks like they tried to play a corpse but knew this idea was failed.
And BTW, it's not a Russian soldier lying according to them, it's still the "Crimean militia".
"RF troops? No, they are not there yet!"

 

[TenEightyOne]

It's not (but OK, I did). The TV even told "nobody was seriously wounded". Looks like they tried to play a corpse but knew this idea was failed.
And BTW, it's not a Russian soldier lying according to them, it's still the "Crimean militia".
"RF troops? No, they are not there yet!"

Ah, okay, that's fair enough... I wasn't sure looking at the picture but the caption is deliberate so, probably not ideal.

Seeing this play out in the media of different countries is very interesting, it's a shame that it's a study of something with potentially grave consequences.

 

[SMfan]

I saw footage of them "blocking" Ukrainian bases in, effectively preventing the occupants from emerging.

Excuse me? Did you just call the Ukrainian army occupants?!

Have the Russians actually overtaken any Ukrainian bases at at this time, or just blockaded them?

At least the the airfields.
There's info about attempted takeover of a border base (border bases (i think there's a more specific term for a "border base", but I don't know it). At first it was said that the takeover was succeful, then that Ukrainian forces remain in control.
Again, pretty much all the reports are in Russian, but here's a couple:
http://tree.biz.ua/news/zahvacheny-shtaby-pogranichnyh-voysk-v-krymu
http://censor.net.ua/news/273796/go...yiskim_spetsnazom_pogranichnye_shtaby_v_krymu

It'd take a lot of time ofr me to translate the whole thing, so, uhm, maybe Google Translate wiil do?

Blocking military bases means you are planning to invade and want to prevent the counties army from stopping you.
Basic rule of invading a country, take over or prevent the local army from responding and it will be much easier for you

Well, basically.

 

[TenEightyOne]

Excuse me? Did you just call the Ukrainian army occupants?!

Yes, but in a literal sense where they are the people who "live inside it". I wasn't implying "an occupation" in the sense of a military occupation. Although I was in another way.

English must be horrible to the outside world

And no, don't worry about doing translations, it's great that you're keeping us advised and your as-appropriate translations will be better

 

[prisonermonkeys]

One problem is that the Australian prime minister is making statements as if this was an invasion...he's already making news around the world for his statements in respect of this, he either has incompetent ratters or he himself is politically imcompetent. Sadly that means that the Australian press (in part) also think that this is some kind of invasion thereby ignoring the fact that this is something a little more complex.

The problem is that Abbott made those comments on "The Bolt Report", a political commentary show that is little more than a conservative journalist, Andrew Bolt, singing praises to Abbott, relentlessly and mercilessly attacking the opposition for not being Tony Abbott and pretending that he has integrity. Nothing Abbott says will be challenged by Bolt.

 

[TenEightyOne]

I wasn't sure who Bolt was when you first proposed him for Celebrity World Peace Coach Trip (don't know if you have Coach Trip there, it's reality TV about odious people on coach trips, tells itself). I looked him up and I fully endorse his attendance at any prospective warzone

 

[SMfan]

Yes, but in a literal sense where they are the people who "live inside it". I wasn't implying "an occupation" in the sense of a military occupation. Although I was in another way.

Ohhhh, it's just that when you're talking about armed forces and takeovers the word "occupants" is likely to be perceived in a certain way/

English must be horrible to the outside world

Nah, I actually like it a lot. No, really, I do.

And no, don't worry about doing translations, it's great that you're keeping us advised and your as-appropriate translations will be better

Alright, alright.

 

[TenEightyOne]

Ohhhh, it's just that when you're talking about armed forces and takeovers the word "occupants" is likely to be perceived in a certain way/

Very old joke: A German holiday-maker arrives at a Greek airport and goes to passport control.

"Occupation?", asks the Greek passport officer.

"No, just here on holiday", says the German.

B'dum tssshhhh.

 

[prisonermonkeys]

I wasn't sure who Bolt was when you first proposed him for Celebrity World Peace Coach Trip (don't know if you have Coach Trip there, it's reality TV about odious people on coach trips, tells itself). I looked him up and I fully endorse his attendance at any prospective warzone

And that is the problem with the power of media. Bolt has his show because a mining magnate opposed a tax on mining that the opposition wanted to introduce when they were in government. So she bought into the network and gave Bolt his own programme with carte blanche to attack the then-government. Now that Abbott is in power and Bolt has no editorial oversight, Abbott can say whatever he wants, and we end up in a situation where Abbott is being quoted around the world for his lack of understanding about the situation in the Ukraine.

Meanwhile, his government is threatening to cut the budget of the national broadcaster because they would not take his word for it on the subject of border protection. The ABC naturally went to another source about some disturbing allegations about the way our navy handled a boat load of illegal asylum seekers, and Abbott condemned them as "un-Australian" for it.

Why do I mention this? Because tomorrow I have to take a class full of Year 8 students, many of whom are legitimate asylum seekers, and I have been warned that they are afraid there will be a war.

 

[Dotini]

I respectfully disagree that a diplomatic solution has been ruled out. Remember, not a shot has been fired.

A real good question is what is going on in Kharkhiv and Donetsk?

BBC have reported the following:

"In Donetsk, in eastern Ukraine, some 2,000 people waving Russian flags gathered to protest at the appointment of new pro-Kiev governor, Serhiy Taruta."
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-26414600#

I looked up Serhiy Taruta, and I learn that he is said to be one of the 500 wealthiest men on the planet, worth a Forbes estimated 2 billion US dollars.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Serhiy_Taruta

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/03/03/world/europe/ukraine-turns-to-its-oligarchs-for-political-help.html?_r=0

 

[G.T.Ace]

BBC via facebook:

BREAKING NEWS: Russia's Black Sea Fleet has given Ukrainian forces in Crimea until 03:00 GMT on Tuesday to surrender or face an all-out assault.

That’s according to Ukrainian defence ministry sources quoted by the Interfax-Ukraine news agency.

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-26413953

 

[PeterJB]

World War 3 it is then.

 

[Dotini]

World War 3 it is then.

Sorry(?), but nonsense.
These are merely mopping up operations, likely to be bloodless, inside of Crimea, which de facto is now Russian controlled.

The real question is whether, or when, tanks will roll across the Russian border through Kharkiv and Donetsk all the way to Moldova, cutting Kiev off from the Black Sea. This will provide really thrilling visuals.

There will be no war. There will be no WWIII, at least not here and now. The Ukraine government is still trying to get organized, staffed up and funded. They are incapable of waging a decent war. The west - i.e., the EU, the US, NATO, etc., is caught flat-footed, lacking both a viable client state to support and any reason to risk their economies and thin forces on the Ukraine gambit.

 

[Sureboss]

Eh? It already is a war.

 

[Dotini]

Eh? It already is a war.

Yes, a war without a shot fired. Really it's more like a chess game fought with big pieces. It's said that for every battle fought in medieval ages, there were a hundred sieges where the castle changed hands without loss of life.

 

[Ryanswannell]

Why is it that whenever the slightest bit of military intervention is hinted, people run around claiming that WW3 will happen. A WORLD WAR is exactly that, countries all around the globe taking sides etc. Just because Russia and and others are having a little disagreement doesn't mean that countries are going to start fighting each other, resulting in mass-destruction.

Don't get me wrong, I'm not really very educated on this whole saga, but I see very little that would initiate a large scale conflict.

 

[Touring Mars]

While this appears quite alarming, I think it is helpful to remember that Crimea and the Eastern flank of Ukraine is home to a large number of ethnic Russians, and the Ukraine, while a sovereign nation, is as much a part of the Russian 'sphere of influence' as it is part of the European sphere of influence (if not considerably more so)... it's debatable as to what the Russians are really up to, but given that the Crimean Prime Minister essentially begged Putin to send troops in, I think the view that Russia is 'invading' is not entirely accurate. The fact that the Ukrainian government has been toppled is a good reason to be worried about what might happen, but as other popular uprisings have shown, power vacuums can be extremely dangerous and ultimately extremely counterproductive. I'm not going to pretend I fully understand what is happening, but when you hear John Kerry saying stuff like 'Russia is acting like it's the 19th Century... you can't just invade sovereign countries on a phony pretext', you have to say that there is a ridiculous double standard here.

edit: Also, one has to wonder why NATO and the EU are making such a fuss when Ukraine isn't even a member of either. This is not to give Russia carte blanche to do whatever it wants, but it does appear that NATO and the EU are assuming that Russia's motives are dishonourable, when infact they might be doing the entire region a favour by taking the matter into their own hands.

 

[terminator363]

The real question is whether, or when, tanks will roll across the Russian border through Kharkiv and Donetsk all the way to Moldova, cutting Kiev off from the Black Sea. This will provide really thrilling visuals.

Do you even know where Moldova is?

 

[Touring Mars]

I think you've misquoted there @terminator363.

 

[Dotini]

 

[terminator363]

I don't understand what ITCC_Andrew is saying, does he mean that Russia will sweep along the coast and capture Odessa, etc? That doesn't make any sense.

 

[Dotini]

I don't understand what ITCC_Andrew is saying, does he mean that Russia will sweep along the coast and capture Odessa, etc? That doesn't make any sense.

Well, it's me that saying that. If you check the record above, you'll see.

How does it not make sense? It certainly makes a long tonne of sense for the Russians. It is their original homeland, they think, all that area of east and south Ukraine. Goes back a long, long time. Odessa would no longer be ruled from Kiev.

 

[Touring Mars]

Indeed... it doesn't sound all that strange when you look at how Ukraine is split according to the last general election...

 

[terminator363]

Well, it's me that saying that. If you check the record above, you'll see.

How does it not make sense? It certainly makes a long tonne of sense for the Russians. It is the original homeland, they think, all that area of east and south Ukraine. Goes back a long, long time.

Yes, I do understand what you are saying, it was just confusing the way you said it.

 

[Dotini]

Check the map. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Odessa

 

[SMfan]

...but given that the Crimean Prime Minister essentially begged Putin to send troops in, I think the view that Russia is 'invading' is not entirely accurate.

You're kinda missing the fact that Aksyonov only proclaimed himself the new prime minister after Russian troops took control of the administration. Also:

You know, on the last election the party of their prime minister (who himself obtained power not through any election, but a takeover) got 4% of the votes. Doesn't that just scream "region-wide popularity"?

I'm not going to pretend I fully understand what is happening, but when you hear John Kerry saying stuff like 'Russia is acting like it's the 19th Century... you can't just invade sovereign countries on a phony pretext', you have to say that there is a ridiculous double standard here.

The fact that the US make bad decisions doesn't in any way excuse Russia doing the same.

This is not to give Russia carte blanche to do whatever it wants, but it does appear that NATO and the EU are assuming that Russia's motives are dishonourable, when infact they might be doing the entire region a favour by taking the matter into their own hands.

That's exactly what Russian "politicians" are saying, without even trying to prove that the region needs any sort of help.

 

[Rage Racer]

World War 3 it is then.

Wow, wow, easy The red bear just farts and people scream "WW3, holy ****!"
The Cold War had a lot hotter moments (Korea, Vietnam, Afghanistan, etc), but it didn't go from Cold to Hot. And the NATO invasion to Yugoslavia later didn't start the WW3, too.

@Touring Mars , @terminator363
I have two assumptions about what's going on:

1. Putin is butthurt of having his friend Yanukovich ass-kicked from his chair so hard. "So they think they are so cool that they can overthrow my comrades like this?! Now people in Russia may think of trying to do the same! I'll show you how to treat your government!".
The RF forces are being deployed in Crimea to perform an offensive to Kiev and steamroll the revolution just like in Hungary in 1956 to get Yanukovich back in the office. The "new old" government will be even more oppressive and suppress all protests immediately to prevent any nonconformity (like in Belarus and sometimes in Russia).

2 (better than the first and I hope more possible). Putin is butthurt of having his friend Yanukovich ass-kicked from his chair so hard and wants to have Crimea as a compensation for losing his influence in Ukraine. Not annexed to RF, just made independent but de facto ruled by Russian government (like Abkhasia and South Ossetia).

 

[SMfan]

...Putin is butthurt of having his friend Yanukovich...

I'm sorry I'm once againg criticizing use of a specific term... BUT asset applies to Yanukovich way more. To be honest, I absolutely understand what you meant by "friend" and it's in no way wrong, I just kinda wanted to bring it back to Putin's KGB roots.

 

[Keef]

Yes, I do understand what you are saying, it was just confusing the way you said it.

There are a whole lot of countries in Europe and the Middle East which have been drawn by treaty, usually with complete disregard to native history and culture. That leads to never ending internal conflicts. It's what happens when a large central government tries to control a vast area where small, local governments could more effectively cater to the needs of locals.

Why they don't simply split the country I don't understand. It's not helping anybody to be together. Russia can have their loyalists, Ukraine and EU can have their loyalists.

 

[Liquid]

There are a whole lot of countries in Europe and the Middle East which have been drawn by treaty, usually with complete disregard to native history and culture. That leads to never ending internal conflicts. It's what happens when a large central government tries to control a vast area where small, local governments could more effectively cater to the needs of locals.

As much as I am not as much of a firebrand libertarian as yourself, Keef, you're spot on here. My own country, Britain, most certainly has to take responsibility for a significant amount of African and Arabia borders during our empirical dominance.

However, going back to this topic, I'm not sure exactly who drew Ukraine's borders. Was it originally the Russians?