Tesla Master Plan: Part Deux

[Robin]

They are going to look great as a fleet all liveryed up.

 

[Keef]

Guys, I don't think you realize how big a deal this is. How big a deal Tesla is. Why aren't more people talking about this?

Tesla just squatted and plastered the entire automotive industry. Like, the carnage they just caused cannot be overestimated. They completely annihilated the stuck-in-the-past semi industry, all of whom select from the same engines and effectively the same layouts bar the fiberglass body designs, all of which have very similar drag coefficients and are all cheap and floppy with miserable panel gaps and fitment. They focus so heavily on long-term reliability that quality is a total non-issue. Tesla just introduced a vehicle which takes everything we expect from a car and simply upsizes it. They hide all that ugly semi truck hardware under sleek, well-fitting aerodynamic bodywork that actually fits. Minus the drivetrain, of course. Best of all, it's cheaper. And the cost savings scale...big time. Companies know this. The few companies who "test" these things on the road are going to soil their pants when they see how well it works. This is sending actual semi manufacturers scrambling as we speak, knowing full well that their half-assed "electric" trucks pose no competition. This Tesla could be double the price of a normal semi but it's still going to sell. The upfront costs aren't nearly as big an issue to these companies as the long-term savings are. This Tesla has everything.

And the Roadster 2? Really? They drove it, they launched it, it's numbers are positively outrageous. The only hurtle to this car's performance compared to, say, a Porsche 918, is whether or not the batteries can manage their temperature during a track racing environment. If the batteries can handle that, the internal combustion hypercar game is over. It's been won, and the winner is electricity. Future sports cars will never be the same.

It's going to take a long time for electric cars and trucks to become commonplace, of course we know that. But Tesla is so far ahead of the game that they may as well have just beaten it. Game over. Shut it down. All conventional car company on the planet is crying right now because they're so far behind and stuck in their ways. It's a new generation, son. We're going to Mars with a luxury car that doesn't require oxygen and if you can't handle that then get your broke UAW ass out of the way.

 

[titleguy1]

Guys, I don't think you realize how big a deal this is. How big a deal Tesla is. Why aren't more people talking about this?

Tesla just squatted and plastered the entire automotive industry. Like, the carnage they just caused cannot be overestimated. They completely annihilated the stuck-in-the-past semi industry, all of whom select from the same engines and effectively the same layouts bar the fiberglass body designs, all of which have very similar drag coefficients and are all cheap and floppy with miserable panel gaps and fitment. They focus so heavily on long-term reliability that quality is a total non-issue. Tesla just introduced a vehicle which takes everything we expect from a car and simply upsizes it. They hide all that ugly semi truck hardware under sleek, well-fitting aerodynamic bodywork that actually fits. Minus the drivetrain, of course. Best of all, it's cheaper. And the cost savings scale...big time. Companies know this. The few companies who "test" these things on the road are going to soil their pants when they see how well it works. This is sending actual semi manufacturers scrambling as we speak, knowing full well that their half-assed "electric" trucks pose no competition. This Tesla could be double the price of a normal semi but it's still going to sell. The upfront costs aren't nearly as big an issue to these companies as the long-term savings are. This Tesla has everything.

And the Roadster 2? Really? They drove it, they launched it, it's numbers are positively outrageous. The only hurtle to this car's performance compared to, say, a Porsche 918, is whether or not the batteries can manage their temperature during a track racing environment. If the batteries can handle that, the internal combustion hypercar game is over. It's been won, and the winner is electricity. Future sports cars will never be the same.

It's going to take a long time for electric cars and trucks to become commonplace, of course we know that. But Tesla is so far ahead of the game that they may as well have just beaten it. Game over. Shut it down. All conventional car company on the planet is crying right now because they're so far behind and stuck in their ways. It's a new generation, son. We're going to Mars with a luxury car that doesn't require oxygen and if you can't handle that then get your broke UAW ass out of the way.

And yet they're 10 light years from delivering their previous promises. Oops.

 

[AudiMan2011]

Guys, I don't think you realize how big a deal this is. How big a deal Tesla is. Why aren't more people talking about this?

Tesla just squatted and plastered the entire automotive industry. Like, the carnage they just caused cannot be overestimated. They completely annihilated the stuck-in-the-past semi industry, all of whom select from the same engines and effectively the same layouts bar the fiberglass body designs, all of which have very similar drag coefficients and are all cheap and floppy with miserable panel gaps and fitment. They focus so heavily on long-term reliability that quality is a total non-issue. Tesla just introduced a vehicle which takes everything we expect from a car and simply upsizes it. They hide all that ugly semi truck hardware under sleek, well-fitting aerodynamic bodywork that actually fits. Minus the drivetrain, of course. Best of all, it's cheaper. And the cost savings scale...big time. Companies know this. The few companies who "test" these things on the road are going to soil their pants when they see how well it works. This is sending actual semi manufacturers scrambling as we speak, knowing full well that their half-assed "electric" trucks pose no competition. This Tesla could be double the price of a normal semi but it's still going to sell. The upfront costs aren't nearly as big an issue to these companies as the long-term savings are. This Tesla has everything.

And the Roadster 2? Really? They drove it, they launched it, it's numbers are positively outrageous. The only hurtle to this car's performance compared to, say, a Porsche 918, is whether or not the batteries can manage their temperature during a track racing environment. If the batteries can handle that, the internal combustion hypercar game is over. It's been won, and the winner is electricity. Future sports cars will never be the same.

It's going to take a long time for electric cars and trucks to become commonplace, of course we know that. But Tesla is so far ahead of the game that they may as well have just beaten it. Game over. Shut it down. All conventional car company on the planet is crying right now because they're so far behind and stuck in their ways. It's a new generation, son. We're going to Mars with a luxury car that doesn't require oxygen and if you can't handle that then get your broke UAW ass out of the way.

And production of the small sedan they've placed a lot of faith in is bottlenecked all to hell and back. That's a pretty big stumbling block to overcome before they can go talking about electric lorries and hyperdrive supercars.

 

[EngieDiesel]

And production of the small sedan they've placed a lot of faith in is bottlenecked all to hell and back. That's a pretty big stumbling block to overcome before they can go talking about electric lorries and hyperdrive supercars.

This. Add in the fact that Musk keeps jumping into other projects that are increasingly diverting his attention and resources, and a lot can go wrong in the three years until either the semi or the new roadster are supposed to begin production.

I just hope that Tesla doesn't end up like Dany Bahar era Lotus, where they promise a bunch of new designs and none of them ever come to fruition because the money keeps getting frittered away on ill-advised side ventures.

 

[Joel]

I was a big fan of the Model S and I think more electric trucks will be great, but it's starting to feel like Musk and Tesla are just a big venture capital grift. He just makes these insane wild promises and the company is constantly just bleeding through venture capital and struggles with basic manufacturing stuff boring old "legacy" firms figured out decades ago. I just wonder how long the money will flow and enable Musk's Tony Stark cosplay, wanking about roadsters with rockets, unironically talking about terrestrial rocket travel, and this tech wank semi-truck with two dozen cameras. I just wonder at what point do the creditors start to worry if they'll get their money back before Techno-Pope Musk throws money at some new shiny toy.

Like, this semi truck with a center driving position so you can't see the traffic in the left lane next to you when you want to pass or see around a truck in front of you. But no it's OK, Tesla software guys will just reinvent the wheel and use a dozen cameras and tablets instead of mirrors. I just can't imagine having that kind of arrogance, the engineers that design trucks for Volvo or Mercedes are all well aware of how sensors and cameras work and somehow those engineers all decided to put mirrors on their truck and have the driver's seat on the driver's side.

Reminds me of those articles where some white collar dude who's competent in his job decides to open a restaurant because he can host a dinner party. Sometimes industries are the way they are for good reasons, sometimes things are more complicated than they appear, and sometimes "innovation" isn't a good thing and wanting mirrors instead of a dozen cameras doesn't make you a luddite. Why can't they just build an electric truck instead of a fantasy truck with an X-Wing cockpit instead of mirrors.

 

[homeforsummer]

diverting his attention and resources

I think it's less a case of these ventures diverting Musk's attention and more a case of Musk diverting everyone else's attention from Tesla's current issues.

 

[Joel]

Guys, I don't think you realize how big a deal this is. How big a deal Tesla is. Why aren't more people talking about this?

Because a prototype doesn't mean any of his claims will actually end up as true or any of this stuff will get manufactured in any reasonable quantity or at any reasonable price. They can't manufacture a basic sedan in any reasonable time frame and I'm supposed to believe they'll have everything sorted out and start churning out functional trucks with gargantuan batteries and charging needs and a bonkers supercar he just dreamed out of thin air. For what it's worth I think Tesla will end up selling loads of electric trucks. They just won't be anything like what he's showing us now because they're insanely impractical. I wouldn't be surprised to see smaller trucks to replace municipal maintenance trucks, short haul port trucks, mail delivery trucks, etc. But that's not as sexy as a 500 mile range magic truck of hopes and dreams and MEGACHARGERS!

Tesla just squatted and plastered the entire automotive industry. Like, the carnage they just caused cannot be overestimated. They completely annihilated the stuck-in-the-past semi industry, all of whom select from the same engines and effectively the same layouts bar the fiberglass body designs, all of which have very similar drag coefficients and are all cheap and floppy with miserable panel gaps and fitment.

If you're concerned about miserable panel gaps and fit and finish I don't think Tesla's your messiah. Even on the Tesla subreddit full of Tesla fans people are taking delivery of new Model S cars that have panel fit and door seal issues. If they can't figure out door seals and fit and finish on $100,000 luxury cars they've been manufacturing for 5 years I don't know why I'm supposed to believe they'll figure it out on future models and do it efficiently enough to keep costs down. No matter though, they'll still gladly take a high 5 figure deposit on vapourware that may or may not ever come out.

This is sending actual semi manufacturers scrambling as we speak, knowing full well that their half-assed "electric" trucks pose no competition. This Tesla could be double the price of a normal semi but it's still going to sell. The upfront costs aren't nearly as big an issue to these companies as the long-term savings are. This Tesla has everything.

Why are you just taking this huckster at his word? He said it'll be ready in "2019". If you believe they'll be putting this thing out with 500 miles of viable range in 2019 I have a...reserved Model 3 to sell you. And the "megachargers" lmao, those things will have to be pushing out 1.5MW of power each. Who is going to pay for the transformers and industrial electrical infrastructure to service multiple 1.5MW loads at the same time?

It's going to take a long time for electric cars and trucks to become commonplace, of course we know that. But Tesla is so far ahead of the game that they may as well have just beaten it. Game over. Shut it down. All conventional car company on the planet is crying right now because they're so far behind and stuck in their ways.

Well I guess we'll just have to see if they figure out door seals or...logistics.

It's a new generation, son. We're going to Mars with a luxury car that doesn't require oxygen and if you can't handle that then get your broke UAW ass out of the way.

Well that's the thing. We're not. I know, I know, temporarily embarrassed millionaires and all but Musk's whole schtick is autopilot luxury cars so wealthy suburbanites can live in McMansions and avoid taking the train with the poors, and privatizing space. It sure as hell won't be me and you driving luxury cars on Mars.

if you can't handle that then get your broke UAW ass out of the way.

Ah right, almost forgot about the union-busting. Anyway, they couldn't even beat GM to the punch on delivering an actually existing and practical EV for under $40k. Chevrolet's already built nearly 20,000 Bolts, with the drivetrain and batteries built in Korea by LG and final assembly in...Michigan. But hey, the Model 3 will surely be here by 201718!

 

[CodeRedR51]

and somehow those engineers all decided to put mirrors on their truck

Probably because it's required in most places (for cars at least, not sure how the law applies to trucks - though I wonder how Musk plans to get around that if it is). Manufactures actually hate mirrors, they create all sorts of problems. When the law finally gets around to changing and mirrors are no longer a requirement, you'll see them start to drop off and be replaced with camera's.

 

[Keef]

In the US currently mirrors are required on passenger vehicles. Companies have wanted cameras on cars for like 20 years but the regulators won't change the rules.

Anyway, for a bunch of car people there are a **** ton of Tesla haters on here. So what they've got some production issues. The simple fact that Tesla has what other companies want - the future - means that investors are going to keep sticking with Tesla. As long as this company keeps innovating at the outrageous rate they are, and being able to deliver *something* that stays true, bottlenecks or not, they're going to grow and become more successful over time. Their planning might have been off but the products speak for themselves.

 

[Joel]

Anyway, for a bunch of car people there are a **** ton of Tesla haters on here.

I'm not really a Tesla hater in terms of the vision of mass market EVs, and the cars themselves are generally cool if crudely manufactured. I'm a big fan of EVs and would like own one as my first non-beater car.

The Model S is an excellent car and it was the first electric car that you could realistically own as your only car which I applaud them for. I just am not really a fan of this personality cult around Musk and this Apple-esque aura of fairy dust and dreams around anything he or Tesla claims. He just says whatever he wants and moves on to the next fantasy, and people lap up marketing copy for a supercar and a truck when they can't put together a sedan.

So what they've got some production issues. The simple fact that Tesla has what other companies want - the future - means that investors are going to keep sticking with Tesla. As long as this company keeps innovating at the outrageous rate they are, and being able to deliver *something* that stays true, bottlenecks or not, they're going to grow and become more successful over time. Their planning might have been off but the products speak for themselves.

Do they? The Model 3 doesn't speak for itself yet, the Model S/X are small market luxury vehicles, and everything else is vapourware. "Some production issues" is not just something to handwave away on a path to success, it threatens Tesla as a going concern and they're absolutely bleeding through cash. They were very successful creating relatively high margin luxury cars and marketing them as a status symbol. I am far more skeptical that Tesla will be able to mass produce EVs for a mainstream market at a reasonable margin.

I just don't see Tesla having the secret sauce for a mass market car. Mass producing cars requires ruthless efficiency and mature manufacturing practices. The opposite of what Tesla does, and exactly what the stuffy old guys like GM and Nissan are very good at.

Don't get me wrong, I'd love it if Tesla or another smaller manufacturer took over the market, but I just don't see it happening. Tesla was the first but at the end of the day it's batteries and electric motors. It's a lot easier for GM to buy powertrains/batteries from LG and put them in a car than it is for Tesla to figure out how to turn a profit making hundreds of thousands of low margin cars, and at some point we've got to figure Mercedes or Porsche will figure out how to glue an iPad to the dashboard.

 

[Dennisch]

The Semi starts at $150k and that's a lot less than I expected.

 

[Robin]

The Semi starts at $150k and that's a lot less than I expected.

Probably being sold at cost price on even under to gain market traction.

Also you have to factor in the cost of battery replacements as trucks are on the road permanently and those batteries aren't going to be cheap (a rumoured whopping $400k each!).

 

[FT-1]

The Tesla Semi sure knows how to pull

 

[homeforsummer]

Probably being sold at cost price on even under to gain market traction.

I can't see that being the case, particularly if the batteries are as expensive as you say. Tesla isn't yet in the black selling regular road cars in semi-reasonable numbers for more than cost price - I just can't see how it can afford to sell trucks for hundreds of thousands less than it costs them to build.

Has Tesla mentioned any battery-swapping with the semi? Was under the impression it would be used for shorter-haul journeys, rather than long-haul with swapping stations now and then. Again, if the batteries are that expensive, I'm not sure even that is a viable solution - it'd take much longer for operators to break even if they were having to pay for packs outright or rent them to swap into vehicles.

 

[EngieDiesel]

Also you have to factor in the cost of battery replacements as trucks are on the road permanently and those batteries aren't going to be cheap (a rumoured whopping $400k each!).

Now that you mention it, maintenance and repairs in general are a big question as well. When one of these breaks down for whatever reason, a trucking company won't be able to have the on-site mechanics at the nearest hub fix it. If they have to send it back to Tesla for repairs, that's going to cause an unacceptable amount of downtime unless Tesla plans on having a bunch of them sitting around as loaners, like they apparently do with the Model S.

 

[Robin]

I can't see that being the case, particularly if the batteries are as expensive as you say. Tesla isn't yet in the black selling regular road cars in semi-reasonable numbers for more than cost price - I just can't see how it can afford to sell trucks for hundreds of thousands less than it costs them to build.

Nothing that Tesla does makes any financial sense and its been like that since the start. It's a company run like a billionaires vanity project. I am willing to bet the price excludes the battery which will probably be purchased on a lease basis (making the price for just the truck sound about right).

It's like Tesla will be giving them the battery very cheap as a means to test it out and get market share in the process in preparation for a more affordable unit that they can make some money from later down the line.

Has Tesla mentioned any battery-swapping with the semi? Was under the impression it would be used for shorter-haul journeys, rather than long-haul with swapping stations now and then. Again, if the batteries are that expensive, I'm not sure even that is a viable solution - it'd take much longer for operators to break even if they were having to pay for packs outright or rent them to swap into vehicles.

I think we are talking about different swapping's here, I'm talking about end of life swapping, not when the battery has run out of charge mid trip swapping.

Whether the trucks are used for short or long haul they are going to be used constantly so the wear and subsequent lifespan of the battery will be the same. They will certainly need to be swapped out at some point in the trucks lifespan, Tesla would never be so stupid as to sell a truck that needs to be thrown away when the battery dies.

If the packs are a rumoured $400K either renting or buying them will make no sense for the operators. This is why Tesla will be looking to get the costs down from the technical feedback the 'trials' will deliver.

Now that you mention it, maintenance and repairs in general are a big question as well. When one of these breaks down for whatever reason, a trucking company won't be able to have the on-site mechanics at the nearest hub fix it. If they have to send it back to Tesla for repairs, that's going to cause an unacceptable amount of downtime unless Tesla plans on having a bunch of them sitting around as loaners, like they apparently do with the Model S.

That's the other problem, they cannot fix any of these in their own workshop or at your average truck garage and minimal downtime is the key to any operation.

 

[homeforsummer]

Nothing that Tesla does makes any financial sense and its been like that since the start. It's a company run like a billionaires vanity project. I am willing to bet the price excludes the battery which will probably be purchased on a lease basis (making the price for just the truck sound about right).

It's like Tesla will be giving them the battery very cheap as a means to test it out and get market share in the process in preparation for a more affordable unit that they can make some money from later down the line.

But that's my point - if Tesla is going to be so out-of-pocket on a project like this there may not be a "later down the line".

Whether the trucks are used for short or long haul they are going to be used constantly so the wear and subsequent lifespan of the battery will be the same. They will certainly need to be swapped out at some point in the trucks lifespan, Tesla would never be so stupid as to sell a truck that needs to be thrown away when the battery dies.

The math still seems odd on that.

If Tesla charges companies to rent the battery, then it's viable - but only in a narrow window of battery lifespan. If the batteries have to be changed frequently then the rental cost will be high and it'll chip away at the potential savings an operator could make compared to a diesel.

If the batteries last for ages, then the rental cost will have to be quite low, otherwise it would represent poor value for money for operators on something they could have bought outright and not had to pay a monthly fee for however many years (like a really expensive mobile phone contract that ends up being a multiple of the handset cost).

Particularly as after a certain time period, it's reasonable to expect competition for the Tesla semi - probably from well-established legacy brands who some operators might have had relationships with for decades. If Kenworth or Peterbilt came out with its own electric truck you can bet Tesla's potential market would shrink.

Tesla's quoted a million-mile warranty on the truck hasn't it? Even if an operator does 100k miles per year in it (which seems unlikely, as it seems unlikely any properly long-haul truckers will use one) that warranty will last 10 years. Tesla itself has a fairly narrow window to make hay while the sun is shining, so I hope whatever scheme it has to make money from the truck is lucrative in the short term.

For the record, I do hope the Tesla truck succeeds. It seems much more important to the future of transportation than the dick-waving contest that is a new Roadster.

 

[Famine]

The math still seems odd on that.

That and the megachargers.

One Semi on a 1.2MWh megacharger for a 400 mile top-up charge will use as much electricity as an average UK house does... in a quarter. As in a quarter of a year. In that single half hour period, one Semi will require as much power as around 6,000 average UK homes.


I'm not sure I even need to start on why that's a problem for electrical infrastructure.

 

[Robin]

But that's my point - if Tesla is going to be so out-of-pocket on a project like this there may not be a "later down the line".

Elon has deep pockets and friends with deep pockets, it would take a lot to sink Tesla even if they continue operating with their heads in the clouds. I also want the truck to succeed, I think it will do a lot to get electric mainstream as the Model S did but they should start acting like a business rather than a money bonfire.

The whole battery thing I agree doesn't make much sense. Tesla are going to probably loose large amounts of money subsidising them so the rental or purchase cost can be affordable for the operators. Also, as you said, its not like other truck companies aren't thinking about producing their own efforts and they have much stronger reputation and loyalty in the industry.

In that single half hour period, one Semi will require as much power as around 6,000 average UK homes.

The courier is going to have a heart attack when they see their electrical bill! Unless Tesla is going to subsidise that to...

 

[KingFrog]

Electric cars are a stupid fad, we should be investing in hydrogen cells. These batteries are going to be an ecological nightmare come 50 years from now. The infrastructure required to power every electric car would also pollute far more than any traditional hybrid engine. I guess im a bit biased since the ideal engine for hydrogen consumption is a rotary. Brap brap!

Edit : Tesla is also the definition of corporate welfare, they were funded by the taxpayer's dollars and still haven't released a car for the average joe. Say what you say about Germany during the ww2 era, but at least they got the VW bug out to the masses as promised!

 

[Danoff]

Electric cars are a stupid fad, we should be investing in hydrogen cells. These batteries are going to be an ecological nightmare come 50 years from now. The infrastructure required to power every electric car would also pollute far more than any traditional hybrid engine. I guess im a bit biased since the ideal engine for hydrogen consumption is a rotary. Brap brap!

Not only do I not think they're a fad, I think they'll ultimately win. The battery technology will improve, and the batteries get recycled (to varying degrees) and repurposed. It's just too convenient to be able to fill up at home.

 

[KingFrog]

Not only do I not think they're a fad, I think they'll ultimately win. The battery technology will improve, and the batteries get recycled (to varying degrees) and repurposed. It's just too convenient to be able to fill up at home.

Do you know how much waste will be created in the attempt to update our electrical grid?

 

[Danoff]

Do you know how much waste will be created in the attempt to update our electrical grid?

Not much?

Cars aren't going to be routinely charging themselves anywhere but at home - and houses are moving toward providing their own electricity.

 

[EngieDiesel]

Do you know how much waste will be created in the attempt to update our electrical grid?

Not a whole heck of a lot, really. Not until nationwide charging networks become a profitable and privatized industry of their own anyway, because no politicians are ever going to be willing to be responsible for the cost of setting up the new infrastructure.

 

[Robin]

I guess they are hoping that in the next few decades houses will become less reliant on the grid and pretty much become self powering, mainly through solar.... and of course Elon has a just the product lined up for you to use!

 

[homeforsummer]

Electric cars are a stupid fad, we should be investing in hydrogen cells. These batteries are going to be an ecological nightmare come 50 years from now. The infrastructure required to power every electric car would also pollute far more than any traditional hybrid engine. I guess im a bit biased since the ideal engine for hydrogen consumption is a rotary. Brap brap!

None of that.

If hydrogen was a viable fuel for combustion engines we'd have had it years ago. It's most efficient being used in hydrogen fuel cell vehicles (which also use batteries), and hydrogen fuel cell vehicles aren't as efficient as full battery electric vehicles in the first place since hydrogen itself takes a lot of energy to generate. If you're going to use all that electricity to make hydrogen then you might as well put it straight into a battery and use it immediately.

And what's this about the infrastructure? We already have an infrastructure - you're powering your computer with it right now. We'll need extra sources of power, but that probably won't be lots more coal power plants and probably will be wind turbines and solar panels.

What it won't be is an enormous new hydrogen infrastructure at petrol stations. I've filled up hydrogen cars at hydrogen stations, and I've filled up electric cars. The former took an entire building...

...the latter took a three-pin plug on a stick.

Have a guess which required the greater investment, materials usage and infrastructure.

I don't see the ecological nightmare thing either. They'll not be much different from combustion vehicles I suspect - which are currently broken down and recycled or repurposed at end-of-life. Batteries will always be valuable even when they're beyond use in a vehicle, either as on-site energy storage, or for the materials they contain. The regular lead-acid 12v car battery is already the world's most recycled product.

 

[KingFrog]

Not a whole heck of a lot, really. Not until nationwide charging networks become a profitable and privatized industry of their own anyway, because no politicians are ever going to be willing to be responsible for the cost of setting up the new infrastructure.

Not a whole heck of alot ? You just admitted a private company would have to do it.. probably because it does cost a whole heck of alot and probably will take up a considerable amount of resources. Our best bet is hydrogen power, the issue is the technology will take a few more decades to be competitive with current engines. The exact amount of time required to revamp our current electrical grids. Hydrogen cells are far cleaner than electric vehicles .

None of that.

If hydrogen was a viable fuel for combustion engines we'd have had it years ago. It's most efficient being used in hydrogen fuel cell vehicles (which also use batteries), and hydrogen fuel cell vehicles aren't as efficient as full battery electric vehicles in the first place since hydrogen itself takes a lot of energy to generate. If you're going to use all that electricity to make hydrogen then you might as well put it straight into a battery and use it immediately.

And what's this about the infrastructure? We already have an infrastructure - you're powering your computer with it right now. We'll need extra sources of power, but that probably won't be lots more coal power plants and probably will be wind turbines and solar panels.

What it won't be is an enormous new hydrogen infrastructure at petrol stations. I've filled up hydrogen cars at hydrogen stations, and I've filled up electric cars. The former took an entire building...

View attachment 696189​

...the latter took a three-pin plug on a stick.

View attachment 696188​

Have a guess which required the greater investment, materials usage and infrastructure.

I don't see the ecological nightmare thing either. They'll not be much different from combustion vehicles I suspect - which are currently broken down and recycled or repurposed at end-of-life. Batteries will always be valuable even when they're beyond use in a vehicle, either as on-site energy storage, or for the materials they contain. The regular lead-acid 12v car battery is already the world's most recycled product.

Sigh, the current power lines we have CAN'T hold the kind of wattage required. We would have to replace/upgrade most of our current power infrastructure. That means rerunning millions of miles of higher gauge wires. From a scale of one to ten ( ten being teh required amount to feasibly have 95% of homes with electric cars) we are on a 0.5 scale on wattage use . Oh and we would also need to build more solar/wind/hydro/natural gas electric plants to cope with the increased capacity in order for it to be "green". Let's not forget solar panels depend on heavy metals that require extensive mining. Oh yeah about mining. We're gonna have ALOT of fun destroying the natural habitats by mining for all of these new resources were going to need, mostly from third world countries where im 10000% sure child/slave labor still happens. But yeah GO ELECTRIC.

 

[homeforsummer]

Sigh, the current power lines we have CAN'T hold the kind of wattage required. We would have to replace/upgrade most of our current power infrastructure. That means rerunning millions of miles of higher gauge wires. From a scale of one to ten ( ten being teh required amount to feasibly have 95% of homes with electric cars) we are on a 0.5 scale on wattage use .

Do you have a source for that figure?

Even if you do, we're not exactly stretching the grid at the moment. Currently electric vehicles make up 0.2 per cent of global light-duty passenger vehicle sales, so the existing infrastructure is more than capable of handling the current demand.

The grid will of course be updated to cope, but then it's in a constant process of being updated anyway. We're not still using the same grid we were when electricity was first discovered and people were trying to illuminate half-watt lightbulbs - it's being continually improved to cope with the demands of modern life. Quarter of a century ago the majority of people on earth didn't have home computers or access to the internet. Today there are about 3.9 billion internet users, all needing electricity to power their PCs or to recharge their mobile devices. Many homes have multiple TVs and computers and all manner of electric gadgets that the grid has required updating to power. Not to mention general improvements in order to cut down on outages and to balance demand.

Oh and we would also need to build more solar/wind/hydro/natural gas electric plants to cope with the increased capacity in order for it to be "green".

A process that is already underway and means the decreasing use of sources like coal. Even considering the extra materials demand for something like solar or wind, the result is cleaner in both construction and in use than the non-renewable alternatives.

Let's not forget solar panels depend on heavy metals that require extensive mining. Oh yeah about mining. We're gonna have ALOT of fun destroying the natural habitats by mining for all of these new resources were going to need, mostly from third world countries where im 10000% sure child/slave labor still happens. But yeah GO ELECTRIC.

What new resources specifically? And are these resources different from those you're currently using in your phone, laptop or computer - or even in existing, non-electric vehicles?

If you're talking lithium used in most EV batteries, then Australia (not a third-world country, I'm fairly sure) is currently the top producer, much of it from decades-old open-pit mines like Greenbushes. Chile (not third-world) and Argentina (not third-world) are next on the list, and both of those extract lithium from brine ponds in salt flats. Salt flats aren't known for their ecological diversity.

Nickel? About 90% of the stuff we mine goes into alloys, not batteries. So if you're concerned about that, try not to buy anything made of metal for a while.

Cadmium? Nasty stuff. Used to be used in batteries quite a lot (though not EV batteries, which have typically been either nickel-metal or lithium-ion, rather than nickel-cadmium) and is used in solar panels, but now its primary use is electroplating.

Copper? Used anywhere you'll find electricity (including but not limited to EVs), but interesting in that it's actually quicker and cheaper to recycle than it is to extract anew, so I doubt any new mines will spring up unless they absolutely have to. Biggest producer? Chile - that not-a-third-world-country mentioned earlier.

Now there will always be some environmental impact to that all of that, but perhaps not on the sale scale as the near-100 million barrels of oil we extract every single day around the world. And about 45% of that goes into producing gasoline and around 28% into producing diesel (in the US, at least) so reducing reliance on those would probably have environmental benefits both at the point of extraction and at the point of use, compared to the relatively minor impact of increased electric car usage.

You keep beating the hydrogen drum, but I'm not sure you really understand its limitations. Not least that most hydrogen is currently sourced as a byproduct from the extraction of fossil fuels.

 

[Dennisch]

Hurr most abundant element in the universe Durr.