The Active Stock Market Trader, or Traders of Other (Crypto ect.) Market's Thing's Thread.

[Joey D]

Since hospitals are shut off from the lucrative elective surgery money-machine, I reckon hospitals will be shutting down, doctors and nurses unemployed.

Doctors and nurses won't lose their jobs. When a hospital gets into financial trouble it starts axing non-clinical roles. It's happened to me twice during the 10 years I've worked in healthcare. Thankfully, it's not terribly hard to pick up and get a job at another health system, you just need to be willing to move.

CMS is also has a deal right now that allows health systems to get a three month advance on Medicare payments. If it's a specialty hospital, they can request up to six months and if it's a critical access hospital, they can get an advance of 125% of whatever six months of Medicare payments equal. At some organizations, this means just a ton of cash, like hundreds of millions. The health systems do have to repay it, but I didn't stay in the meeting long enough to hear how that goes. I think hospitals have to start repaying it after 120 days and it's something like 1% off the top of every Medicare claim or something like that.

 

[Biggles]

Trump calls out ‘so-called rich guys’ speaking negatively about the stock market, alleges they are ‘betting big against it,’ as Dow falls 500 points

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/a...tting-big-against-it-2020-05-13?mod=home-page

What can you say? This just gets more absurd by the day. Trump in 2016:

 

[Dotini]

Trump calls out ‘so-called rich guys’ speaking negatively about the stock market, alleges they are ‘betting big against it,’ as Dow falls 500 points

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/a...tting-big-against-it-2020-05-13?mod=home-page

What can you say? This just gets more absurd by the day. Trump in 2016:

The GDP of the US is trending about 35% down. Can you imagine any president getting reelected if GDP is massively and suddenly down, and unemployment is massively and suddenly up? You have no worries. Your ship is in. The biggest problem in your life is about to go away. Nothing short of a miracle or cataclysm of some kind can change that. I don't think the Democrats need bother with a neoliberal standard-bearer like poor Biden. They could run any warm body, even a communist, and win easily. But they won't, because neoliberals control the top levels of the party.

 

[Dotini]

Global Depression is discussed.




The 2nd qtr hit to US GDP may be as much as 40%.

 

[Danoff]

I simply do not understand the stock market right now. The S&P is trading near where it was in October.

 

[mustafur]

I simply do not understand the stock market right now. The S&P is trading near where it was in October.

Going by the fundamentals this has to be the most overbought market in history.

It's almost as if too many people expect it to collapse that it wont because it's too obvious, I have no answers to this.

The only thing I can Possibly think of is the market wants everything to reopen so it can see the real damage.

 

[Biggles]

I simply do not understand the stock market right now. The S&P is trading near where it was in October.

Well, based on the "pissing contest", it would be dribbling down my legs now. As it stands now, my financial advisor looks like a prophetic genius ... & I'm out a lot of $.

It seems that every time there is "good news", whether it is somewhat, or even entirely specious, like a "treatment" for the virus, or Trump touting the re-opening of the economy, or the Fed not being "out of ammunition", there is an immediate jump in the market. Similarly, "bad news", however questionable, leads to a sudden drop in the market. There's no question, however, that hope is not dead at this point & there hasn't been the "capitulation" that usually marks a true crash. Could be still to come ... or not.

 

[Danoff]

Well, based on the "pissing contest", it would be dribbling down my legs now. As it stands now, my financial advisor looks like a prophetic genius ... & I'm out a lot of $.

It seems that every time there is "good news", whether it is somewhat, or even entirely specious, like a "treatment" for the virus, or Trump touting the re-opening of the economy, or the Fed not being "out of ammunition", there is an immediate jump in the market. Similarly, "bad news", however questionable, leads to a sudden drop in the market. There's no question, however, that hope is not dead at this point & there hasn't been the "capitulation" that usually marks a true crash. Could be still to come ... or not.

There's plenty of money to be made during a time like this, and it's not for me. I don't want a piece of this pure irrationality.

 

[Joey D]

There's plenty of money to be made during a time like this, and it's not for me. I don't want a piece of this pure irrationality.

You do need a strong stomach to make money right now. Thankfully, I've thrown caution to the wind and it's worked out decently well for me. I'm nearly back to where I was and hopefully, in a few more weeks I'm back in the black.

 

[Chrunch Houston]

I opened a new trading account and bought hundreds of more shares in USO. This is a black swan thing, nothing normal is normal. This is the opportunity of a lifetime.

 

[Keef]

It took me a little while to realize that my tiny little mutual fund outperformed almost every individual stock imaginable because it's, like, actively managed by professionals. So I just removed all my stock money once I got it back a couple weeks ago and put it in there instead. I don't have time to deal with this.

 

[Chrunch Houston]

I opened a new trading account and bought hundreds of more shares in USO. This is a black swan thing, nothing normal is normal. This is the opportunity of a lifetime.

In one month the price of USO has risen 7.7%. In one month!

It was up 9% Wednesday, but dropped over the last couple of days.

This fund, based on the price of West Texas crude, is trading at about $30 now. It will, I predict*, be trading at $90 when this pandemic is over.

one year chart

5 year chart

*Predictions are never guaranteed.

 

[Dotini]

IMHO, due to what looks to be the worst floods in 400 years, plus a few other factors, over 50% of the annual grain crop of China looks to be lost.
First and most importantly, this is a terrible catastrophe for hundreds of millions of people in the farms, villages, towns and cities of Central China.
But you can be sure that rice, grain and pork prices will rise sharply.

 

[Dennisch]

Anyone with Kodak in their wallet?

 

[Eunos_Cosmo]

Anyone with Kodak in their wallet?

I traded my "free" robinhood stock (OPK health which was worth about $5.50 when I sold it) for Kodak, mostly for fun. Didn't do so hot after I made the trade though. Hopefully it will rebound tomorrow. Curious to see whether I can trade up that free $5.50 into a bigger number.

 

[ROAD_DOGG33J]

My stocks are see-sawing. Half are down one day and the other half are up. Seagate and Intel took a hit due to their negative outlook.

 

[Eunos_Cosmo]

This isn't about any particular stock but has anyone else been noticing an uptick of attempts at tech engagement and advertisements in the last few weeks?

-I swear I'm getting far, far more linkedin notifications than usual lately (especially weird since I almost don't engage with linkedin AT ALL)

-I definitely getting way more ads on youtube videos, often 2 or more in videos that aren't very long. In addition to the ads, I'm getting a lot of recommendations for random "viral" videos that are at least 5 years old. They are typically very short (<30 seconds) and the comments are filled with people saying things like "why is youtube recommending this to me 7 years after it was posted". Maybe short videos with lots of views are the most efficient for youtube to make ad revenue off of? Saves on bandwidth and storage I would assume.

-I seem to be getting a lot more promotions for different online vendors and services like Amazon.

Am I the only one who has experienced this? It seems to be coming most from the "big tech companies". I can't help but feel like they are trying to pump up their revenue and it makes me think that these large tech companies are not doing so hot behind the market cap curtain.

Edit: Here's a few screenshots about what I'm talking about RE youtube recommendations:

I'm not crazy, you're crazy!!

 

[ROAD_DOGG33J]

I can't say that I have noticed that.

I'm not crazy, you're crazy!!

Iono

 

[Biggles]

Not that it means anything at all ... but try this one on for a market prediction:

The stock market won't see the bullish outcome it's expecting from a Biden win unless there's a full blue wave, a JPMorgan stock strategist says

https://markets.businessinsider.com...-bullish-jpmorgan-election-2020-10-1029666685

Is the market expecting a bullish outcome with Biden win - as opposed to Trump win? But it won't be a bullish outcome unless there's a Dem sweep? These guys (presumably) get paid the big bucks for coming up with this stuff.

 

[Eunos_Cosmo]

Not that it means anything at all ... but try this one on for a market prediction:

The stock market won't see the bullish outcome it's expecting from a Biden win unless there's a full blue wave, a JPMorgan stock strategist says

https://markets.businessinsider.com...-bullish-jpmorgan-election-2020-10-1029666685

Is the market expecting a bullish outcome with Biden win - as opposed to Trump win? But it won't be a bullish outcome unless there's a Dem sweep? These guys (presumably) get paid the big bucks for coming up with this stuff.

The stock market is completely detached from reality. It seems to me that anything produces a bullish outcome because what else are you going to do with your spare money? The stock market has become purely a gauge of how much money the government & the fed is pumping into the economy with stimulus and zero interest. It's hard to not see it as multiple forces rigging the stock market to go higher and higher. It's all a delusion.

Are people investing money into companies that they feel have long term prospects of growth? Or are people investing money into companies and funds because everyone else is too? One of these questions implies a Ponzi scheme.

 

[Biggles]

The stock market is completely detached from reality. It seems to me that anything produces a bullish outcome because what else are you going to do with your spare money? The stock market has become purely a gauge of how much money the government & the fed is pumping into the economy with stimulus and zero interest. It's hard to not see it as multiple forces rigging the stock market to go higher and higher. It's all a delusion.

Are people investing money into companies that they feel have long term prospects of growth? Or are people investing money into companies and funds because everyone else is too? One of these questions implies a Ponzi scheme.

All true ... but it's the way these commentaries by "financial experts" are trotted out as if they really mean something that gets me. You can, of course, always find the diametrically opposite opinion offered up by some other financial expert.

 

[ROAD_DOGG33J]

All true ... but it's the way these commentaries by "financial experts" are trotted out as if they really mean something that gets me. You can, of course, always find the diametrically opposite opinion offered up by some other financial expert.

I don't get how they just keep boosting the price of Tesla and the like. Is there some kind of magic projection of how profitable they will be in 20 years. Tesla currently has a P/E ratio of $1,116. $1,116 gets you $1 of earnings.

The main bubble is in the tech sector. Those valuations are sky-high. There are still some fairly valued stocks out there, and some opportunities for recovery in REITs as well.

 

[Biggles]

Breaking News!

Experts expect the stock market to up with a Biden win .... or go down!

https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/2...tegists-divided-over-how-to-trade-a-biden-win

 

[Danoff]

I'm betting hard right now on inflation. It could be a bad play in the short run, especially if Trump stays in the whitehouse (though my economic outlook might be the least of the concerns there). If Biden takes office and a COVID vaccine comes around, I think inflation is going to be quite noticeable. At least that's what my financial outlook is based on. The reason for this is that cash reserves that people are hoarding will get loosened up as people realize the sky is not falling. If Trump continues, cash hoarding might increase.

Overall, inflation is set to benefit me economically. On the otherhand, deflation would be very bad for me.

My chips are pretty much set.

 

[ryzno]

If Trump continues, cash hoarding might increase.

May I ask where you see predicted/cash hoarding? I ask from lack of knowledge.

 

[Eunos_Cosmo]

May I ask where you see predicted/cash hoarding? I ask from lack of knowledge.

Savings rate in the US is currently higher than it has ever been.

It's tapered off its peak, but people are still saving a lot more than they are spending. I think this probably particularly true in situations where people are working from home. There is a certain fear of losing employment (if you fear losing your job, you don't spend as much money ) coupled with the fact that so much has been closed until very recently that there simply wasn't as much to actually spend money on (such as eating out, massages, etc). I'm not certain I believe inflation is coming, and with interest rates at zero, I'm pretty confident that the fed has a lot of ammo to fight it if it does. Deflation though...not sure the fed or government can do anything to stop it.

 

[Danoff]

Savings rate in the US is currently higher than it has ever been.

It's tapered off its peak, but people are still saving a lot more than they are spending. I think this probably particularly true in situations where people are working from home. There is a certain fear of losing employment (if you fear losing your job, you don't spend as much money ) coupled with the fact that so much has been closed until very recently that there simply wasn't as much to actually spend money on (such as eating out, massages, etc). I'm not certain I believe inflation is coming, and with interest rates at zero, I'm pretty confident that the fed has a lot of ammo to fight it if it does. Deflation though...not sure the fed or government can do anything to stop it.

Inflation would result from a return to stability, as people flow money out of cash reserves into purchases/investments/etc. Deflation can be combated easily by the fed, simply by printing money (unless confidence is so low that the printed money just gets held). Low interest rates also result in inflation not deflation. Because money is cheap, and gets borrowed/spent more quickly. A return to high interest rates could be deflationary, but it's bad for government debt. Very bad.

inflation is hard for the fed to fight. Deflation less hard.

The spike in that plot correlates with a big government outlay. As the spike tapers down, the big outlay gets spent into the market, which results in inflation.

 

[Eunos_Cosmo]

Inflation would result from a return to stability, as people flow money out of cash reserves into purchases/investments/etc.

If you believe that the stock market is in a bubble (I think we both agree, to some extent that it is) then there is a lot of money tied up in securities that necessarily (if it's a bubble, again) will be destroyed if/when the bubble bursts. There's quite a bit of evidence that a ton of that fed stimulus gravy has gone directly into the stock market. Put another way, if we had a repeat of 2000 when the NASDAQ dropped 80% (which today would evaporate $13T in wealth), would you still be confident that inflation was on the horizon?

 

[Danoff]

If you believe that the stock market is in a bubble (I think we both agree, to some extent that it is) then there is a lot of money tied up in securities that necessarily (if it's a bubble, again) will be destroyed if/when the bubble bursts. There's quite a bit of evidence that a ton of that fed stimulus gravy has gone directly into the stock market. Put another way, if we had a repeat of 2000 when the NASDAQ dropped 80% (which today would evaporate $13T in wealth), would you still be confident that inflation was on the horizon?

Yea, pretty confident.

The US economy is in a pinch, for sure. Stocks are overvalued. But money that is in stock is not in dollars. Keep that in mind. If it's tied up in the stock market, it's not tying up dollars. So if the value of the stock market decreases, this does not decrease the amount of dollars in circulation. Those dollars now have less that they need to buy, because they do not need to buy as much stock. This is inflation. It's not stock market inflation, it's deflation in the stock market. But it is currency inflation. (Edit: I should say here again that a stock market crash could result in short term deflation due to hoarding cash, but it would not be steady state)

To make this point a little more finely, when you exchange $20 for stock. You no longer hold currency. Someone else does. When your stock goes down in value, that currency is still in circulation - and you no longer have something that it has to buy (meaning it is worth less).

To combat inflation, the US government would have to raise interest rates. It can't, not without other inflationary measures to counteract the debt. In the short term, we're definitely in a deflationary scenario, as money gets pulled out circulation and credit gets used to pay for credit. But if we see a transition back to stability, such as through an administration change over the election to a party committed to stimulus checks, and we see an end to COVID-19 on the horizon, we should see people loosen their grip on currency, which is what's driving that short term deflation.

Long term, I think this stimulus ends up inflationary - it's almost a necessary outcome given the debt. Our government cannot survive deflation, it owes too much.

 

[Eunos_Cosmo]

Yea, pretty confident.

The US economy is in a pinch, for sure. Stocks are overvalued. But money that is in stock is not in dollars. Keep that in mind. If it's tied up in the stock market, it's not tying up dollars. So if the value of the stock market decreases, this does not decrease the amount of dollars in circulation. Those dollars now have less that they need to buy, because they do not need to buy as much stock. This is inflation. It's not stock market inflation, it's deflation in the stock market. But it is currency inflation. (Edit: I should say here again that a stock market crash could result in short term deflation due to hoarding cash, but it would not be steady state)

To make this point a little more finely, when you exchange $20 for stock. You no longer hold currency. Someone else does. When your stock goes down in value, that currency is still in circulation - and you no longer have something that it has to buy (meaning it is worth less).

So the stimulus money has been going to, for lack of a better term, ordinary people - it's widely distributed. Lots of consumers with spare cash is what drives inflation rather than a few consumers with massive amounts of cash. What I think will happen, if the stock market crashes, is that a lot of lower income consumers will effectively lose their shirt and the stimulus money they exchanged for now worthless stocks will invariably end up in fewer hands. Basically, any stock market crash on the horizon is probably going to increase wealth inequality. If you have 100 people with 100 dollars split between them, chances are that all of that money is going to be liquid - potentially driving inflation. If you have 1 person with 100 dollars, its far more likely that some portion of that 100 dollars will not be liquid.

To combat inflation, the US government would have to raise interest rates. It can't, not without other inflationary measures to counteract the debt. In the short term, we're definitely in a deflationary scenario, as money gets pulled out circulation and credit gets used to pay for credit. But if we see a transition back to stability, such as through an administration change over the election to a party committed to stimulus checks, and we see an end to COVID-19 on the horizon, we should see people loosen their grip on currency, which is what's driving that short term deflation.

Long term, I think this stimulus ends up inflationary - it's almost a necessary outcome given the debt. Our government cannot survive deflation, it owes too much.

Japan has been stimulating its economy with enormous amounts of easy money for decades now and inflation still has not occurred.

Goods keep on getting cheaper to make...