The Active Stock Market Trader, or Traders of Other (Crypto ect.) Market's Thing's Thread.
- Thread starter Chrunch Houston
- 364 comments
- 23,700 views
- 6,072
- Simcoeace
Yup. I keep reading all these alternative views of what is going to happen. People (often of a libertarian bent) have been predicting the arrival of hyper-inflation for years now. Others are predicting deflation. My guess is that even though the fiscal situation in the US is extremely questionable given the huge & continuously growing national debt, at a time of global insecurity there are few other places to park money, so the US dollar, far from falling in value is actually increasing in value. I have no idea where this all ends up.
- 11,903
- Marin County
The Buffett indicator sat at a historic high of 179% on Thursday
Same indicator was at 100% and 118%, before the GFC and Dot Com crash, respectively.
Same indicator was at 100% and 118%, before the GFC and Dot Com crash, respectively.
- 6,072
- Simcoeace
Yeah - I saw that. The thing is, the degree of government intervention is without any precedent, not to mention the record low interest rates. We are in uncharted territory.
Personal anecdote: my secretary, back in the late '90's, was somewhat bemused that we were using Macs for my business. I remember her offering the suggestion that I should buy Apple stock as I was using the product. I didn't.
- 11,903
- Marin County
Yeah - I saw that. The thing is, the degree of government intervention is without any precedent, not to mention the record low interest rates. We are in uncharted territory.
Personal anecdote: my secretary, back in the late '90's, was somewhat bemused that we were using Macs for my business. I remember her offering the suggestion that I should buy Apple stock as I was using the product. I didn't.
I wouldn't put it past the fed to actually just start buying stocks to prop up the market.
Dotini
(Banned)
- 15,742
- Seattle
- CR80_Shifty
It may be tempting to prop up certain strategic or prestige industries like oil and airlines. However, the idea of doing it by buying stock sounds very bad to me.
- 11,903
- Marin County
Danoff
Premium
- 34,039
- Mile High City
The government intervention is not sustainable, this will have to reckon with reality.
Personal anecdote: my secretary, back in the late '90's, was somewhat bemused that we were using Macs for my business. I remember her offering the suggestion that I should buy Apple stock as I was using the product. I didn't.
Even a broken watch is right twice a day.
- 6,072
- Simcoeace
Not really an appropriate metaphor. She had no knowledge or of markets or pretence of having knowledge - it was just a casual comment. Her remark stuck with me because it was so uninformed ... & - as it turned out - so right which is obviously the most important thing when it comes to investing in the market.
At the time, Apple was recovering from its low point in 1997, when Bill Gates had stepped in to make an $150 million investment in Apple to prevent it from going under. $150 million is pocket change for Apple now. I don't remember exactly what year it was - it must have been around 2000. Looking at Apple history is pretty fascinating:
https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/charts/AAPL/apple/stock-price-history
In the 3 years prior to Jobs rejoining Apple the stock collapsed losing 18%, 34% & 37% respectively each year. The following two years it rebounded 211% & 151%. I'm guessing that was when the comment was made. But the following year the stock lost 71% (tech bubble bursting), so it would have (temporarily) been a terrible investment. Since then Apple stock has risen approximately 29,000%.
- 11,903
- Marin County
In the 3 years prior to Jobs rejoining Apple the stock collapsed losing 18%, 34% & 37% respectively each year. The following two years it rebounded 211% & 151%. I'm guessing that was when the comment was made. But the following year the stock lost 71% (tech bubble bursting), so it would have (temporarily) been a terrible investment. Since then Apple stock has risen approximately 29,000%.
Pshh. Should have bought an aircooled 911. Those things have appreciated about a million percent.
Apparently, if you average it out, the Fed is injecting $1,000,000 into the economy every second at the moment.
Dotini
(Banned)
- 15,742
- Seattle
- CR80_Shifty
@Biggles
Warren Buffet had just dumped his US airline stocks! Maybe "the sage of Omaha" has gone senile, and this is your big chance to go all-in on airlines! You've got to believe as an article of faith that airplanes are here to stay, and so is globalization and global travel.
Warren Buffett dumps US airline stocks, saying 'world has changed' after Covid-19
The legendary investor indicates that financial markets could still have further to fall as worldwide cases edge towards 3.5m
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...tocks-saying-world-has-changed-after-covid-19
- 6,072
- Simcoeace
Stocks surge on news that job loss numbers are only 20.5 million - lower than the anticipated 22 million.
Woo hoo! “Less worse” results - only 20.5m!! Now if that doesn’t justify a rally, I don’t know what does. That’s akin to being diagnosed with brain, lung and liver cancer and throwing a party because awesome - no pancreatic cancer!
Woo hoo! “Less worse” results - only 20.5m!! Now if that doesn’t justify a rally, I don’t know what does. That’s akin to being diagnosed with brain, lung and liver cancer and throwing a party because awesome - no pancreatic cancer!
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Joey D
Premium
- 47,506
- Lakes of the North, MI
- GTP_Joey
- GTP Joey
I've managed to claw my way back from the initial market fall out. I'm still down some $20k overall, but I've made some significant gains thanks to some frequent trading. My biggest movers so far have been Abbot Labs, Co-Diagnostics, Ferrari, and Volvo. Hopefully, the upward trend continues so I can relax a bit on moving things around so much.
- 11,903
- Marin County
If you've got cash in the bank, it's hot time to pick up a house in those vacation-only kind of places. A lot of short-term rental owners are getting absolutely hammered by Covid fallout and are selling off assets - makes sense if you are paying multiple mortgages on now-zero vacation rental income streams. I was perusing Zillow's Palm Springs listings and this appears to bear out - lots and lots of stuff sitting on the market, and many of them being direct sold by Zillow themselves (which I've never seen in my area). That tells me that sellers are not finding buyers and are resorting to selling homes to Zillow directly...probably for a lot less than they wanted.
I actually hope Covid shifts the landscape of real estate in the US. There are far too many wannabe real estate magnates sucking up all the damn property in the country with all the stupid cheap borrowed money. It's even worse in the Air B n B era. Cities like Austin are losing entire new construction multi-family housing projects to vacation rentals. It's just stupid.
I actually hope Covid shifts the landscape of real estate in the US. There are far too many wannabe real estate magnates sucking up all the damn property in the country with all the stupid cheap borrowed money. It's even worse in the Air B n B era. Cities like Austin are losing entire new construction multi-family housing projects to vacation rentals. It's just stupid.
- 6,072
- Simcoeace
Yeah, but the stupid cheap borrowed money is still there ... & there's nowhere else "safe" to invest, so real estate may continue strong - who really knows? The market rally continues in spite of everything.
- 6,072
- Simcoeace
So markets dropped late afternoon about 2%. The explanation given by Reuters editors:
The S&P 500 dropped 2% on Tuesday as investors took profits following a warning from the top U.S. infectious disease expert that premature moves to reopen the nation’s economy could lead to novel coronavirus outbreaks and set back economic recovery.
On other days the explanation for the market going up has been Trump says "blah ... blah ... blah ... opening economy ... blah ... blah ... greatest economy ever ... blah ... blah ... blah".
How can there be fluctuations of tens of billions of dollars based on this?
The S&P 500 dropped 2% on Tuesday as investors took profits following a warning from the top U.S. infectious disease expert that premature moves to reopen the nation’s economy could lead to novel coronavirus outbreaks and set back economic recovery.
On other days the explanation for the market going up has been Trump says "blah ... blah ... blah ... opening economy ... blah ... blah ... greatest economy ever ... blah ... blah ... blah".
How can there be fluctuations of tens of billions of dollars based on this?
- 2,677
- UK
- Outspacer
Over here, the FTSE 100 went up ~1% (although now down ~2% from that based on futures). But that hides what actually happened: supermarkets, food, and utilities went well up, Kingfisher by nearly 10% (owner of B & Q, a DIY chain that's opened stores again). Countering that, housebuilders and similar were well down, a couple by more than 10%. A bunch of stuff barely moved at all (banks, oil, etc).
Unless almost everything moves in the same direction it doesn't make any sense to try and explain what 'the market' is doing! And if they do, it tends to be a bigger move of the market, more than 3%, with a relatively obvious (if often still dubious) reason.
Unless almost everything moves in the same direction it doesn't make any sense to try and explain what 'the market' is doing! And if they do, it tends to be a bigger move of the market, more than 3%, with a relatively obvious (if often still dubious) reason.
- 6,072
- Simcoeace
Well, clearly there has been a shift in valuations from "traditional" industries, like oil, autos, aeronautics etc., to tech & "online" industries, like Apple, Facebook, Google, Amazon etc. This is a continuation of what started in the late '90's with the emergence of the "new economy". The coronavirus has accelerated that shift. I'm not sure the retail sectors will ever fully recover from this.
Dotini
(Banned)
- 15,742
- Seattle
- CR80_Shifty
Dr Fauci has said opening schools this fall is "a bridge too far". So count education down and bleeding from the ears.
Health care, oddly enough, is also in trouble. Since hospitals are shut off from the lucrative elective surgery money-machine, I reckon hospitals will be shutting down, doctors and nurses unemployed.
Reduction of tax and license revenues for states, counties and municipalities will ensure budgets for public employees will be slashed.
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- 2,677
- UK
- Outspacer
True, the rest of the retail sector has taken a (further) hammering from this, but actually seemed to find a level fairly early on in this crisis and hasn't seen much in the way of big moves since. Looking at longer term trends you are of course correct, but I'm not sure how much that is affecting the day to day swings - it's literally more about survival for some companies at the moment.
Apple, Facebook and Google aren't really part of a shift - they continue to grow the tech sector but not particularly at the expense of traditional industries. Different story with their share valuations of course - who wouldn't be tempted by a larger ROI?! - and this draws speculative money away from other companies. Amazon on the other hand is directly taking money off the high street.
Looking back at 2019, oil companies were in a bit of a down trend but airlines and supporting industries generally on a slight up trend (notable exception being Rolls Royce). It's going to take a while to get to the other side of this, but when we do I can see air travel picking up again pretty quickly, and oil as well (probably sooner). I have a fatalistic take on oil - while it's there, we're gonna use it!
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