The Active Stock Market Trader, or Traders of Other (Crypto ect.) Market's Thing's Thread.

Biggles
It would seem to be that way ... but it's certainly seemed that way for the last few months, with the market close to all time highs, a global pandemic raging & large parts of the economy shut down. How do you decide when it's the right time to go back in? That's the problem. Of course, if you decide not to go back in at all, no problem. You've just got to figure where else you can make a reasonable, low risk investment. It's never easy ... if it were, we'd all be rich!
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If it's up because it's an inflation precursor, it may not come back down now that Biden has won (I suspected that Trump a win would cause a flight to cash, which would be a stock drop). I'm headed to real property for a while, but not pulling any further out of stocks.
 
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I think real estate is going to be a solid play...for something like 2-5 years. When interest rates invariably rise (which, if your inflation prediction comes true, they probably will) its hard not to see it taking a big chunk out of real estate valuations. I'm trying to make a big move soon...
 
Eunos_Cosmo
I think real estate is going to be a solid play...for something like 2-5 years. When interest rates invariably rise (which, if your inflation prediction comes true, they probably will) its hard not to see it taking a big chunk out of real estate valuations. I'm trying to make a big move soon...
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My outlook with real estate (and basically all property) is to never plan to sell. That's my solution to the problem of renting a property and not having it destroyed by meth contamination if your renters smoke meth - just don't ever sell it.

Edit:

For clarity on that point, the rules for meth contamination are quite significant. I've been through a round of meth cleaning on a house that had meth contamination and learned a great deal. The house had meth smoked 1 time in it (as determined by the cleaner - it was a construction worker who built the house, the house had just been built), the cleaning method revealed where the smoker was situated when it was smoked. That single smoke put the house to within about half of the legal limit for contamination in Colorado. 2 smokes would have rendered the house a meth lab, and would have involved police tape, and testing. As it was, testing the house was $4000 (cleaning bill was its own thing), and that was for the "not methlab" version of the test.

The point here is that a) meth is terrible. b) meth is everywhere and c) it is extremely easy to detect.

Edit 2:

Once meth is detected above the legal limit (so like... 2 smokes, somewhere in the house), no possessions can be removed, your homowner's insurance is invalid, and cleaning can involve stripping drywall and gutting the HVAC ducting. It can total your house and leave you without insurance.
 
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So with Dems looking to have a decent amount of control moving forward, it certainly appears that congress is going to make it rain with fiscal stimulus. Should the $2,000 checks materialize, I'd hazard a guess that a ton more money is going to be jammed into the stock market. Anyone want to have a little fun and speculate which stocks are gonna balloon even further? Remember, these are not institutional investors with the money, it's a lot of retail investors hive minding.

With that in mind, I'm guessing that Tesla and the FAANG stocks are going to inflate to even more absurd valuations. As soon as the spigot stops...buckle up.
 
10 year bond yields have been creeping up for the last few months and are at a point thats starting to look attractive

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I suspect they will climb to 1.5 at least should team Biden provide $2,000 stimulus checks, with all that money chasing big returns in the stock market
 
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ROAD_DOGG33J
That gamestop tug of war...hedge funds and short sellers are losing a ton of money.
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Stock market is turning into the wild west...even moreso than before.

I just bought a bunch of commodity ETF shares (well, not really a lot, but a pretty wide range anyway). It seems like they are going to be the next thing, particularly if the stocks crash.
 
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@ROAD_DOGG33J and @Eunos_Cosmo

Can somebody explain to me what's happening with Gamestop? It looks to me like large hedge fund manager(s) took a short position on it and... basically internet trolls rallied it up so that the hedge would lose money, and the internet trolls would lose money, and that very little of what actually transpired had to do with Gamestop as a company.

If that's true, does it not make us all think twice about what stock prices really represent today?
 
Danoff
@ROAD_DOGG33J and @Eunos_Cosmo

Can somebody explain to me what's happening with Gamestop? It looks to me like large hedge fund manager(s) took a short position on it and... basically internet trolls rallied it up so that the hedge would lose money, and the internet trolls would lose money, and that very little of what actually transpired had to do with Gamestop as a company.

If that's true, does it not make us all think twice about what stock prices really represent today?
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Absolutely! Go onto that reddit thread, if you dare. The nihilism there reminds me of 4chan 10 years ago.

There is not even a pretense (beyond a vaguely plausible move to e-commerce due to a new investor) of investing in good faith. It's a pile-on to punish a particular hedge fund (I'm not taking a side here) that sure smells and swims like a ponzi scheme to me. I really wonder...do they all (the robinhood bros) think they can cash out with big winnings? Because that ain't gonna happen. I saw that one redditor is up to a $22m position as of this morning, and they are trying to drive his stake up past the net worth of Melvin Capitol's founder or CEO or something.

If this continues, there will be regulation coming because the stock market could be in for systemic risk if this kind of activity continues.

edit: On the other hand, I feel like this is specifically targeted at punishing short investors. Short investors kind of annoy me because it seems to me like a fundamentally unproductive way to use capital. So maybe it's not so bad?
 
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Eunos_Cosmo
Absolutely! Go onto that reddit thread, if you dare. The nihilism there reminds me of 4chan 10 years ago.

There is not even a pretense (beyond a vaguely plausible move to e-commerce due to a new investor) of investing in good faith. It's a pile-on to punish a particular hedge fund (I'm not taking a side here) that sure smells and swims like a ponzi scheme to me. I really wonder...do they all (the robinhood bros) think they can cash out with big winnings? Because that ain't gonna happen. I saw that one redditor is up to a $22m position as of this morning, and they are trying to drive his stake up past the net worth of Melvin Capitol's founder or CEO or something.

If this continues, there will be regulation coming because the stock market could be in for systemic risk if this kind of activity continues.
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Makes me want to take all of the rest of the money I have in the market out. Except that it's the best bet of the last century of course.

Eunos_Cosmo
edit: On the other hand, I feel like this is specifically targeted at punishing short investors. Short investors kind of annoy me because it seems to me like a fundamentally unproductive way to use capital. So maybe it's not so bad?
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Try differentiating between how "productive" buying stock is compared to shorting it. There is a notion that buying stock somehow helps or supports a company, that's only true when companies are diluting stock or during IPO. The rest of the time it's just trading hands based on speculation of future company earnings or the desire to receive profit sharing.
 
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It's up 130% today over yesterday's close which was already crazy. Somebody's making money on this, but they have to sell at some point. I'm guessing a lot of this is options?
 
Joey D
The FTC is going to have an absolute field day with this.
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Not the SEC as well? Can't the individuals (since it's on Reddit and there isn't much in terms of identification there) just close shop and restart it elsewhere?
 
Blitz24
Not the SEC as well? Can't the individuals (since it's on Reddit and there isn't much in terms of identification there) just close shop and restart it elsewhere?
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D'oh, that's what I meant, the SEC.

I doubt they'll be looking for the person who bought a handful of shares, but they'll absolutely be questioning the people who dumped a ton of money.
 
Eunos_Cosmo
I really wonder...do they all (the robinhood bros) think they can cash out with big winnings? Because that ain't gonna happen.
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Kinda depends on how you define "big," no? I'm sure a lot of people have made life-changing amounts of money in the last 24-48 hours.
 
huskeR32
Kinda depends on how you define "big," no? I'm sure a lot of people have made life-changing amounts of money in the last 24-48 hours.
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Sure. A few. A few will benefit tremendously, and many will lose money, especially if they were late to the party. Like a Ponzi scheme.
 
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Danoff
If that's true, does it not make us all think twice about what stock prices really represent today?
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I certainly think the idea of stock markets good = economy good needs to be readdressed. There seems to be an incredibly flawed notion, mostly from... um, I don't know the word I'm looking for but I'll say American right-wingers, that if the stock market is fine, then everything else is fine.

It simply is not true. Might be fine for the top percenters but it's not necessarily true for a significant supermajority of the population.
 
This guy is apparently being projected as "God" on Reddit; this is his share as of an hour ago.


This isn't an area I have much knowledge in, but judging by those on wallstreetbets on Reddit, they're telling the SEC or whoever oversees the market to not start looking at introducing regulations because the people who like screwing others over got screwed over this time by the public?
 
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McLaren
This guy is apparently being projected as "God" on Reddit; this is his share as of an hour ago.


This isn't an area I have much knowledge in, but judging by those on wallstreetbets on Reddit, they're telling the SEC or whoever oversees the market to not start looking at introducing regulations because the people who like screwing others over got screwed over this time by the public?
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It's debatable if they can call on the SEC to do anything because nothing they really did was illegal. The issue they might have is getting someone to pay them what the value of the stock is.
 
Surely though the only way you can make money on this is if you sell your shares for... more than you paid for them. Which means someone else will have to buy them.

If they don't (which they won't), the share price will eventually go down until someone will pay you for them - which is likely to be break-even or worse - and those funds that gamble on certain share prices falling will make a hoopload off it. That'll essentially see the status quo restored, with the Redditors evens or down and one fund making more than the other lost.

In either case, Gamestop is now worth so much that if you were to take it to Gamestop, Gamestop would give you $35 for it.
 
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McLaren
This isn't an area I have much knowledge in, but judging by those on wallstreetbets on Reddit, they're telling the SEC or whoever oversees the market to not start looking at introducing regulations because the people who like screwing others over got screwed over this time by the public?
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I've been seeing a simular take on Twitter. What I keep hearing is that this is giving the hedgefunds a taste of their own medicine.

Blitz24
It's debatable if they can call on the SEC to do anything because nothing they really did was illegal. The issue they might have is getting someone to pay them what the value of the stock is.
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Would that not be covered by the closing of the short positions that will close on friday?
 
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Famine
Surely though the only way you can make money on this is if you sell your shares for... more than you paid for them. Which means someone else will have to buy them.

If they don't (which they won't), the share price will eventually go down until someone will pay you for them - which is likely to be break-even or worse - and those funds that gamble on certain share prices falling will make a hoopload off it.

In either case, Gamestop is now worth so much that if you were to take it to Gamestop, Gamestop would give you $35 for it.
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And then turn around and sell it for $57 million, without the box.
 
Famine
Surely though the only way you can make money on this is if you sell your shares for... more than you paid for them. Which means someone else will have to buy them.

If they don't (which they won't), the share price will eventually go down until someone will pay you for them - which is likely to be break-even or worse - and those funds that gamble on certain share prices falling will make a hoopload off it. That'll essentially see the status quo restored, with the Redditors evens or down and one fund making more than the other lost.

In either case, Gamestop is now worth so much that if you were to take it to Gamestop, Gamestop would give you $35 for it.
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This is how I thought it would work, but this guy has been posting his shares every day & people were commenting, "He's not selling!?"

I'm guessing now they're just meme'ing, but I can never tell when r/wallstreetbets is legitimate or not. They walk the line so very well.
 
The bottom half of that screenshot are options. So they have an option to buy the stock at $12/share that expires in April.

I think think they can sell the option or exercise it, in which case the other person either has to hold the shares to transfer them or buy the shares at whatever price they are at.
 
Regulators are circling...

Mass. Secretary of State Bill Galvin calls for 30-day suspension of GameStop stock trading

huskeR32
I don't think I'm following this bit. In what way is this thing playing out like a Ponzi scheme?
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I guess it's more accurate to call it a pump & dump. Market manipulation. The similarity to a Ponzi scheme is that those latest to the party are the ones burned the most - to the benefit of those involved from the beginning, holding the biggest positions.
 
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