The Middle East

[HenrySwanson]

It's perfectly possible to acknowledge the root cause of something while condemning the outcomes and actions of both sides that have resulted from said root cause.

What would you say about each of these (3) outcomes, in turn:

One white kid called my Malaysian friend a *****.
Some of my classmates danced in the playground on 9/11 and laughed at the liquidation of the ghetto scene in Schindler's List that we had to watch in History class.

I think the world is changing very, very quickly and we need to stay on top instead of falling back on more, outdated(?) thinking.

Note, that's a call for a more holistic, nuanced view rather than West = bad.

For example I'm watching this:



But according to some views, only 1 factor is the real cause, and I don't think many are buying that.

 

[Scaff]

What would you say about each of these (3) outcomes, in turn:


I think the world is changing very, very quickly and we need to stay on top instead of falling back on more, outdated(?) thinking.

Note, that's a call for a more holistic, nuanced view rather than West = bad.

For example I'm watching this:



But according to some views, only 1 factor is the real cause, and I don't think many are buying that.

I'd say exactly the same thing, as I've already quite clearly addressed this.

Oh and root cause doesn't mean the only factor involved, so please don't try and strawman what I was quite clear about.

 

[HenrySwanson]

I'd say exactly the same thing, as I've already quite clearly addressed this.

Oh and root cause doesn't mean the only factor involved, so please don't try and strawman what I was quite clear about.

OK, so what is the root cause in each case?

Please understand it's not a strawman. I believe the root cause for all 3 is tribal/group differences with other and different aggravating factors.

Would your explanation account for this:

Aid to the Church in Need | BURKINA FASO: 100 Christians killed in three months

Islamist extremists have massacred around 100 Christians and kidnapped many more in Burkina Faso in attacks since May.

acnuk.org

This?

Inside Britain's secret far right army

Active Club (AC), whose members praise Adolf Hitler, poses as a UK sports club seeking the self-improvement of young men through weight training and fitness.

www.dailymail.co.uk

 

[Scaff]

OK, so what is the root cause in each case?

Please understand it's not a strawman. I believe the root cause for all 3 is tribal/group differences with other and different aggravating factors.

Would your explanation account for this:

Aid to the Church in Need | BURKINA FASO: 100 Christians killed in three months

Islamist extremists have massacred around 100 Christians and kidnapped many more in Burkina Faso in attacks since May.

acnuk.org

This?

Inside Britain's secret far right army

Active Club (AC), whose members praise Adolf Hitler, poses as a UK sports club seeking the self-improvement of young men through weight training and fitness.

www.dailymail.co.uk

Given that one is in West Africa and the other is in Northern Europe I fail to see what that has to do with the Middle East.

Oh, and you clearly have little experience with root-cause analysis.

 

[HenrySwanson]

 

[Scaff]

Can you give some context, in your own words, rather than just posting a video and nothing else.

 

[Dennisch]

Rebels in Syria have entered Aleppo, and it is reported (rumoured) that Assad fled to Moscow to beg for military aid as his forces are being overrun everywhere.

 

[p78]

I don't think Putin has a lot of troops to spare.
Especially now the Roebel has crashed.

 

[HenrySwanson]

Old but gold:

 

[AlexWilmot]

 

[Eunos_Cosmo]

This development is such bad news for both Russia and Iran that it's hard to believe that the CIA and/or Mossad doesn't have a part to play in it. It will be very difficult for Iran to help Hezbollah regroup if they are also trying to use their limited resources to help Assad, and Russia is obviously already overstretched in Ukraine. But both of them also really can't afford to lose their presence/influence in Syria either. It's been a real bad year for the Iranian government, maybe they should just give up already? Would be a fantastic time for Iranians and Russians to rise up and take back their countries...

 

[Keef]

It's now Friday and the Rebels have taken Aleppo and Hama days ago and are on the doorstep of Homs, literally taking it as we speak.

I found an updated map of the situation. It's easiest to click by date in the "Time" menu and see progress day by day. It appears the rebel offensive started on Nov 26 and has seen incredible progress due to defenses having been dismantled over the past few years. They entered Aleppo on Nov 29, literally three days, and within two more days they'd consolidated that entire area. Also on Nov 29 their expansion toward the south exploded with reports all the way to Hama, a considerable distance south. By Dec 4 the rebels had surrounded the north side of Hama and consolidated huge swaths of rural territory south of Aleppo and east of Hama. They took Hama yesterday, Dec 5, and Salamiyah to its southeast. Today the 6th they've pushed directly south from Hama toward Homs and are fighting in its northern outskirts, and will most certainly push southwest from Salamiyah into Homs to close that triangle.

Once they get to Homs, that entire western portion of Syria toward the sea will be isolated and should fall in time. After that, it's a considerable distance to Damascus and there isn't much along the way. Another problem is that as they advance to Damascus their frontline along the eastern deserts gets very long and hard to defend.

 

[Eunos_Cosmo]

It's now Friday and the Rebels have taken Aleppo and Hama days ago and are on the doorstep of Homs, literally taking it as we speak.

I found an updated map of the situation. It's easiest to click by date in the "Time" menu and see progress day by day. It appears the rebel offensive started on Nov 26 and has seen incredible progress due to defenses having been dismantled over the past few years. They entered Aleppo on Nov 29, literally three days, and within two more days they'd consolidated that entire area. Also on Nov 29 their expansion toward the south exploded with reports all the way to Hama, a considerable distance south. By Dec 4 the rebels had surrounded the north side of Hama and consolidated huge swaths of rural territory south of Aleppo and east of Hama. They took Hama yesterday, Dec 5, and Salamiyah to its southeast. Today the 6th they've pushed directly south from Hama toward Homs and are fighting in its northern outskirts, and will most certainly push southwest from Salamiyah into Homs to close that triangle.

Once they get to Homs, that entire western portion of Syria toward the sea will be isolated and should fall in time. After that, it's a considerable distance to Damascus and there isn't much along the way. Another problem is that as they advance to Damascus their frontline along the eastern deserts gets very long and hard to defend.

Unless Assad capitulates (which would basically mean Iran & Russia also capitulating) I have a hard time seeing Damascus falling to the rebels...at least not without an Allepo-2012 style disaster. I think the more likely outcome is that Syria splits in two, with Assad controlling the south, and the New Syrian Republic or whatever controlling the north.

edit: Just looked at the map more carefully...I think what I said would only apply to Damascus itself. But at the rate Assad's forces are collapsing now, it could the whole thing.

 

[Keef]

Unless Assad capitulates (which would basically mean Iran & Russia also capitulating) I have a hard time seeing Damascus falling to the rebels...at least not without an Allepo-2012 style disaster. I think the more likely outcome is that Syria splits in two, with Assad controlling the south, and the New Syrian Republic or whatever controlling the north.

edit: Just looked at the map more carefully...I think what I said would only apply to Damascus itself. But at the rate Assad's forces are collapsing now, it could the whole thing.

Assad's forced are collapsing and that's huge because Russia and others basically left the region completely because they thought it was settled. They were wrong. Now that several airfields have been captured, Russia and Iran can't really get any more forces into the area. Assad has to defend with what he's got and he doesn't have much compared to the rebuilt rebels.

The American and Turkish side are effectively looking to create a safe zone to repopulate with refugees. I doubt the rebels are interested in stopping at a partition.

 

[Keef]

According to the map and this source which of course is some random Twitter account, many small towns in the triangle between Hama, Salamiyah, and Homs have been taken by rebels. Of note here is that Russian forces bombed the main bridge over the river between Hama and Homs, but not before some rebels crossed over. That river crossing does not exist between Salamiyah and Homs however, which is why taking Salamiyah was critical. The river in question runs right through the middle of Hama which of course was already taken days before the Russian blew the bridge to Homs. So that Russian bombing did very little to stop the rebels overall because they're advancing at a ridiculous pace.

Also, check the bottom of the map. Just today, over the past 8 hours or so, numerous uprisings and protests have occurred in the southwest of the country, very close to Demascus. The rebels themselves may not even need to reach Demascus if local uprisings expand. It seems most of this action has been reported just in the past few hours, as southern rebel operations have begun today. It appears they may have taken their time to create a Taliban-in-Afghanistan style takeover in very short time.

 

[Keef]

As of a few hours ago, the SDF has taken over Assad government pockets in the northeast of Syria. They've also begun crossing the Euphrates river which was a makeshift border for the past few years.

Russia and Assad are bombing heavily just north of Homs. They want to prevent the rebels from taking it at all costs.

The "Southern Operations Room" of the rebels has stated their destination is Demascus. Another name for these rebels is "Daraa rebels", named after the city and region of Daraa near the southwestern border of Syria. While there are clashes and bombings, it seems Daraa will be in rebel coontrol within a couple days, at which point they'll head north to Damascus.

This whole operation has an Israeli component as well. Israel honestly might have had a lot of say in planning. They've targeted a coastal border station between Syria and Lebanon called Al-Aarida. They've also attacked a couple locations south of Homs, just inside Syria from the Lebanese border.

 

[HenrySwanson]

That post was more about how Lebanon has the opportunity to extricate itself from the clutches of Hezbollah and how we expect certain standards from Israel but not Arab nations. With some Iranians jubilant I hope the Lebanese can realise that they were being held under the thumb of terrorists.

So here it is, Hezbollah gutted and looking like the losers they are and support from the international community that could be used to implement Resolution 1701.

As Hezbollah threatens the Lebanese army, ending the war with Israel still faces obstacles

***

www.haaretz.com

I wonder how many wish there was a Black September-like event and the religious maniacs were kicked out once and for all.

 

[Keef]

Maybe somebody can straighten me out but I've got a friend - who for context is an American citizen but Iraqi Kurdish in heritage and very passionate about the Palestinian plight etc etc - who is telling me that the northern rebels in Syria are HTS. Apparently ISW is labelling them as HTS on their maps. However, that live updated map I shared here seems to label these northern rebels as the Free Syria Army, FSA. That name seems to be supported by the various social media posts that they're using to verify the map information. You can choose the date and read every single post that has been included.

So does anybody have a more concrete source on who is who is where beyond the literal social media posts from the people as they happen?

 

[Blitz24]

Based on reports, Damascus has fallen and Assad has either completely left Syria or has been killed in a plane crash trying to flee Damascus.

 

[sirjim73]

Syria latest: Rebels capture Damascus, saying President Assad has fled

Rebels say they have toppled Bashar al-Assad and the prime minister promises to co-operate with them

www.bbc.co.uk

Now we wait... it's telling and worrying that the Taliban are happy - remember the promises that they made in Afghanistan (now all broken). I hope and pray that Syria can have a different, and much better, future now that Assad has gone.

 

[Liquid]

The fall of Assad is a reason to be cheerful but by no means does this mean sunshine and rainbows for Syria or its people. A happy, momentary checkpoint box, however fleeting and sudden it may be, however sour it might go from here.

 

[HenrySwanson]

"All religious stuff aside, the fact is, people who can't kill will always be subject to those who can."

And now we wait to see what the new rulers have in store for the population and if these events contribute to the continuing migrant crisis.

 

[Keef]

Well that was pretty cool. The rebels, effectively HTS lead by al-Sharaa, have taken Demascus. Assad has fled the country. Russians are evacuating from the Med coast. Israel is currently bombing the **** out of the southwest and has send some probing teams into Syria.



Rebel groups have begun pushing west from Hama to Masyaf, nearly halfway through the only remaining Assad region along the coast. They'll surely keep pushing to the coast to push out any loyalists and Russians left.

Edit: I missed the post where rebels had reached Baniyas on the coast. Now the whole western portion of the map is green although rebels presumably haven't actually covered the entire area.

This is how the Buckeyes offense should've overran Michigan. Damn it to high hell.

 

[TexRex]

Assad should've done the Joe Rogan podcast.

 

[Blitz24]

Assad should've done the Joe Rogan podcast.

Imagine if Putin actually helped Assad. This "special operation" might have taken 3 days instead of 10.

 

[Touring Mars]

Assad and his family are in Moscow and have been granted asylum, according to Russian state media.

Good to see Russia doing their bit in taking in asylum seekers from Syria

Meanwhile, Assad's palace(s) have been looted, and he has been forced to leave behind his massive car collection, the highlight of which being a Ferrari F50. Glad that this car will also be liberated from the clutches of a vicious dictator.

 

[Eunos_Cosmo]

Well - I sure was wrong, or at least I didn't expect Russia and Iran to abandon Assad that quickly.. This has all been pretty shocking and lightning fast. Makes you really question Assad's 2021 election win with 95% of the vote - surely that was legit, right?

If it can happen in Syria, why not Iran? The IRGC is spread thin and weakened. The regular army probably has little interest in propping up the Ayatollah and nobody is going to help Iran. Russia can't and China won't.

What concerns me now is the fate of the Kurds. Turkey is very likely to muscle in now that Iran and Russia have been squeezed out and I'm sure their #1 priority will be ethnic cleansing of the Kurds in one fashion or another. The dream scenario I think would be for the Kurds to have their own state in NW Syria, but I have a hard time seeing that happen. The best outcome is probably some form of representative nation with respect for all the ethnic groups.

edit: ****, Iran is probably going to build a nuclear bomb now...they got no other options.

 

[Liquid]

First-world officiality: Syria's Wikipedia page has retconned the Syrian Arab Republic as "the past" with its own page.

Syria (2024-present) (Governmental positions are described as transitional or vacant)
Syria (1963-2024) (Described as a rump state with past tense grammar)

 

[Dennisch]

Let's see if they go for elections or civil war.

 

[TexRex]

Assad and his family are in Moscow and have been granted asylum, according to Russian state media.

Tulsi Gabbard overjoyed that all of her friends are in the same place.