The Threat From China - Real or Not?

[a6m5]

You're still on that , it was a suggestion I'm not trying to sell it as if it's true, just something that I wouldn't be surprised at if the CIA tried it or thought of it before. Try to look at the point with depth and not some dry black and white meaning. I'm not trying to gather Data to prove the CIA could make this made up mission work. I'm trying to prove and said it in those post that you were wrong in thinking that those types of uprisings or incidents don't happen all the time in China.



I'm not saying anyone could garuntee it, just saying this is something the CIA and NSA and others think about, such as Mossad and MI-5/MI-6. CIA and Mossad used stuxnet in Iran to cripple them and other incidents through history with nations show that the CIA isn't as weak as you make them out to be and would be used if not already to start the ground work on China if anything were to happen.



If you think it's a waste then why did you reply? I'm just saying it's not impossible for the CIA or any other groups like it to try and manufacture such a mission. It would be counter productive because of where the international economy sits and who is a major player. However, you didn't answer me on other stuff you just say "I've read the contrary" I didn't do a google search I have a lot of article over the years saved becasue I like to debate people on world diplomacy and other political issues. Sorry I'm just weird like that.

When I say it's a waste of time, I'm just saying that there is nothing you or I could dig up that effectively support either position. I think we can both agree that sometimes, very capable group can blow some routine operation, or maybe get some unlucky breaks. Very easily an opposite of that could be true. Smaller, underdog can catch the entire world off-guard once in awhile.

Can CIA(or collection of U.S. Intelligence) cause civil war in China? I say no, not because I disrespect the CIA, or (at least I don't think)because I underestimate them. You have to remember, I'm from a nation United States defeated in the World War II. Ignorant crowd(no disrespect, but most of the U.S. on this particular subject) believes that Japan just attacked Pearl in 1941. History or WWII-buff knows that there were a lot of espionage & political maneuver in the Pacific region by the United States prior to 1941. From Japan's perspective, predecessor of the likes of CIA today, they drew Japan right into a war that was not winnable.

Sorry, I derailed big time. Basically, I'm trying to say that I understand what powerful intelligence organization are capable of. Two reasons why I personally don't believe that likes of CIA would have sizable(as in destroy leadership) success in China: 1) With the economy & Middle East(includes Homeland Security), I believe that their manpower & funds are already stretched thin. 2) Unlike the Imperial Japan, China was smart enough to invest heavily in military & intelligence.

I guess it's not so much I take the Americans lightly, but I do respect the game the Chinese are playing now. I am sorry for any misunderstanding. I hope we can agree to disagree.

 

[LMSCorvetteGT2]

When I say it's a waste of time, I'm just saying that there is nothing you or I could dig up that effectively support either position. I think we can both agree that sometimes, very capable group can blow some routine operation, or maybe get some unlucky breaks. Very easily an opposite of that could be true. Smaller, underdog can catch the entire world off-guard once in awhile.

Can CIA(or collection of U.S. Intelligence) cause civil war in China? I say no, not because I disrespect the CIA, or (at least I don't think)because I underestimate them. You have to remember, I'm from a nation United States defeated in the World War II. Ignorant crowd(no disrespect, but most of the U.S. on this particular subject) believes that Japan just attacked Pearl in 1941. History or WWII-buff knows that there were a lot of espionage & political maneuver in the Pacific region by the United States prior to 1941. From Japan's perspective, predecessor of the likes of CIA today, they drew Japan right into a war that was not winnable.

I know very well what we did their prior to Pearl Harbor, the only people Blind sided by it were those sailors that had nothing to do with what the big wig in D.C. had been playing at in the Pacific.

Sorry, I derailed big time. Basically, I'm trying to say that I understand what powerful intelligence organization are capable of. Two reasons why I personally don't believe that likes of CIA would have sizable(as in destroy leadership) success in China: 1) With the economy & Middle East(includes Homeland Security), I believe that their manpower & funds are already stretched thin. 2) Unlike the Imperial Japan, China was smart enough to invest heavily in military & intelligence.

Problem is the CIA doesn't have a budget per say like other portions of military and government. I mean they have many covert and black budget operations that don't show up on the book or are unaccounted for in the fiscal year break downs. Main military I'd agree with you, we're quite stretched, the CIA is different though.

I guess it's not so much I take the Americans lightly, but I do respect the game the Chinese are playing now. I am sorry for any misunderstanding. I hope we can agree to disagree.

I agree I respect the game the Chinese are playing, but one must respect (and be disgusted) at the game the U.S. government plays. A game that is highly covert and in the shadows, we look like a nice guy that shows might on the outside, but on the inside and behind closed doors we're playing everyone but our citizens and others think that isn't so.

 

[a6m5]

I know very well what we did their prior to Pearl Harbor, the only people Blind sided by it were those sailors that had nothing to do with what the big wig in D.C. had been playing at in the Pacific.



Problem is the CIA doesn't have a budget per say like other portions of military and government. I mean they have many covert and black budget operations that don't show up on the book or are unaccounted for in the fiscal year break downs. Main military I'd agree with you, we're quite stretched, the CIA is different though.



I agree I respect the game the Chinese are playing, but one must respect (and be disgusted) at the game the U.S. government plays. A game that is highly covert and in the shadows, we look like a nice guy that shows might on the outside, but on the inside and behind closed doors we're playing everyone but our citizens and others think that isn't so.

Way I see it, it is impossible to truly know, or understand the extent of funding, or capacity of American intelligence agencies. I do admit that I speculate on the funding, because way I see it, when the money's tight, it is tight. Obviously, with top secret projects and operations, we have no way of knowing how much leeway they might actually have.

On the activity and effect by the U.S. Government, I'm usually not quick to judge. I think I'm being fairly realistic when I say propaganda, media control, whether you like it or not, it's just part of life. Every government in the world practice it to certain degree.

I do feel privileged to live under the American rule. While we can go all day long about the evil done in name of this country, I can't help but to compare U.S. with the Imperial Japan, Nazi Germany, or Soviet Union. I know who's umbrella I'd rather be under, and would fight to protect.

For me, the U.S. is simply the lesser evil, and World War II & the Cold War proved, at least to me, that the U.S. is the necessary evil as well.

 

[LMSCorvetteGT2]

Way I see it, it is impossible to truly know, or understand the extent of funding, or capacity of American intelligence agencies. I do admit that I speculate on the funding, because way I see it, when the money's tight, it is tight. Obviously, with top secret projects and operations, we have no way of knowing how much leeway they might actually have.

On the activity and effect by the U.S. Government, I'm usually not quick to judge. I think I'm being fairly realistic when I say propaganda, media control, whether you like it or not, it's just part of life. Every government in the world practice it to certain degree.

Yeah every government does practice it.

I do feel privileged to live under the American rule. While we can go all day long about the evil done in name of this country, I can't help but to compare U.S. with the Imperial Japan, Nazi Germany, or Soviet Union. I know who's umbrella I'd rather be under, and would fight to protect.


For me, the U.S. is simply the lesser evil, and World War II & the Cold War proved, at least to me, that the U.S. is the necessary evil as well.

I see where you're coming from and I can agree to an extent, but the type of control the U.S. practices is one of fear mongering, one where they make you think that big government and tight security is needed or you wont be safe at all. A nation where they say you can demonstrate and protest (as said in first amendment) but uses police or a police like state to shut it down when power and a big push is gaining, something that doesn't benefit the company elite.

The elite also have a power over regular middle to low class citizens that is perpetuated by the Government because those in power gain something from it. The elite are allowed to spend their money and somewhat rig elections to benefit them in short and long term goals which ultimately hurt regular American citizens. We may not be Nazi Germany, Soviet Russia, Communist China, or Mussolini's Italy but with the Patriot Act and the new but worse version who knows what can happen. It really is a brave new world.


WWII I might give you because that Axis was insane to humans as a whole, Cold War not so much especially when you see that covert operations of then have hurt us in today's world. Afghanistan shows that.

Anyways I have to agree with a lot of what you say, and I too apologize it was late and I think we both had issue deciphering what the other was getting at. Also I tend to argue a lot on the forum with people because too many times I see off the wall BS.

 

[a6m5]

No probs. 👍

While we veered off the topic a little bit, I think it kind of benefited the thread as well. There are many angles to see & judge United States, and this of course extends to China as well. Personally, growing up with this Western bias programmed in my head, it's easy to have tendency to vilify China. I definitely need to look at China more objectively.

 

[LMSCorvetteGT2]

No probs. 👍

While we veered off the topic a little bit, I think it kind of benefited the thread as well. There are many angles to see & judge United States, and this of course extends to China as well. Personally, growing up with this Western bias programmed in my head, it's easy to have tendency to vilify China. I definitely need to look at China more objectively.

Very true, and though I too grew up the same way and am quite critical of my nation due to a life, liberty, and justice standpoint that they should follow, I also have a bias that I can't easily escape. I think the threat from China is authentic, but I think we're a threat to them as well.

 

[Vince_Fiero]

A Chinese threat, when looking around they are here already:
Paris:

Luxembourg:

 

[Dotini]

It can be seen that both China and Japan claim the Diaoyu/Senkaku Islands. Today Obama drew a bold new red line when he,

"...assured Japan that islands at the centre of its territorial dispute with China are covered by a bilateral defence treaty. In an interview ahead of his Asian tour, Mr Obama said the US would oppose any attempt to undermine Japan's control over the islands."
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-27116863#

Doing this at the beginning of his "Asian pivot" road trip is liable to ignite Chinese umbrage and maybe even a North Korean atomic bomb test. Given the surly mood in China over MH370 and escalating tensions with Russia (a Chinese ally) over Ukraine, I would not be surprised at both domestic and international worry over inevitable conflict in both theaters.

Chinese 'air defense zone'

 

[Rage Racer]

I think, China cannot into war. Despite of the efforts of Sun Tzu, Chinese can't fight properly - various parts of China speak different dialects and nobody ever managed to collect all these people into one army - or did, but just for a parade and to show off to Laowais. The only emperor who had collected 5 million soldiers for war with Korea, lost that army on the way because of hunger, diseases and thirst, and meanwhile the China itself was ravaged by revolution becoming an end of his dynasty. Besides, the Great Chinese Wall built to protect from the attacks of nomads, helped China to lose all remains of the war art. The Sino-Japanese wars confirmed it.

The Communist Party is trying to get the situation better, but the conflict on Damanskiy island and the Sino-Vienamese war have shown that it's still bad. Well, they can occupy Tibet with 3.5 monks living there or scare the former Soviet republics (Tajikistan and Kyrgyzia) with a wish to pay them a visit, but nothing more. In all of China's ancient history, it was defeated by anyone who wasn't lazy - from Mongols to Vietnam exhausted by the war with Americans. Japanese were especially often to "visit" and leave "great" memory, heh.

However, there are still more than enough units for a "zerg rush", and the rest is not over yet, too. But, Chinese weapons, even the newest, are still Made In China, and in the age of guided bombs and nuclear warheads, amount of cheap units will only affect the amount of gore around. Quality is a lot more important than quantity in 21st century.

P.S. I think we can have a good "Couch Ops" thread here.

 

[Keef]

A Chinese threat, when looking around they are here already:
Paris:

Luxembourg:

A side effect of tourism, perhaps? The last time I saw anything written in Chinese besides a restaurant menu was China Town in NYC.

 

[Rage Racer]

A Chinese threat, when looking around they are here already:
Paris:

On the first pic, I also see some Korean and Japanese symbols here.

 

[Nish]

They are all info for the business in different languages I think. You can see the same phone number 3 times on the right hand door.

 

[TenEightyOne]

I wouldn't worry about a 'language invasion'; I've always found that Americans seem more sensitive about it because it's unusual for an American to be multilingual when compared to other parts of the world; in the UK its pretty common and across Europe its very common.

UK schools normally teach 'easier' languages such as French/German/Spanish which form most of the basis of modern English. They also normally have the option teach Mandarin, Japanese and Russian as, aside from English and Spanish, these are considered to be the most widely used languages in the world. Having multilingual signs therefore isn't unusual (especially in tourist areas) and I don't think we're threatened at all by other languages - given that we speak hundreds of them in such a tiny area we can't really afford to be... providing we're allowed to keep our own, too!

 

[Lizard]

A Chinese threat, when looking around they are here already:
Paris:

Luxembourg:

That is called tourism. The big round sign has something about cameras. (I can read some of the Japanese)

 

[a6m5]

Yeah, that sign on the door is in Korean, Japanese, then Chinese.

It can be seen that both China and Japan claim the Diaoyu/Senkaku Islands.

It's been under Japanese control since the 1800's(administered by U.S. from '45 to '71). Chinese claim to these islands only started around 1970, when oil/natural gas deposits were discovered in the area.

I don't buy these claims arguing historical ownership of territory. Like in the Japan/South Korea territorial dispute over Takeshima. South Koreans took the island, back in the 50's. Japan didn't do anything about it then, you snooze you lose. In the case of Senkaku, we are talking about 19th Century. Give me a break.

Today Obama drew a bold new red line when he,

"...assured Japan that islands at the centre of its territorial dispute with China are covered by a bilateral defence treaty. In an interview ahead of his Asian tour, Mr Obama said the US would oppose any attempt to undermine Japan's control over the islands."
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-27116863#

Doing this at the beginning of his "Asian pivot" road trip is liable to ignite Chinese umbrage and maybe even a North Korean atomic bomb test. Given the surly mood in China over MH370 and escalating tensions with Russia (a Chinese ally) over Ukraine, I would not be surprised at both domestic and international worry over inevitable conflict in both theaters.

Chinese 'air defense zone'

While it has now become official, U.S. had already indicated that Senkaku would be covered under the Japan/U.S. security pact, right around the Chinese Air Defense Identification Zone were put in place.

As for the threat of Chinese invasion, I have read an article that said the U.S. believes that the Chinese have already begun training for marine landing invasion of not just Senkaku, but seemingly aimed at other Japanese islands in the region as well. While that scared the 🤬 out of me, article also mentioned that the Chinese have been training to invade Taiwan for sometime, so it's not like these islands are necessarily in the immediate danger of Chinese military action.

I'm glad that the Obama administration is standing up to lend support for peaceful resolution to this crisis.

 

[Rage Racer]

A month ago, in our "couch military" community, me and my "couch comrades" were discussing the "Chinese threat" and a hypothetic war conflict - Chinese invasion to Russia. One of us analysed the Chinese military, what they consist of, their advantages and disadvantages, and a possible result of the hypothetic Russo-Chinese war. He wrote a good article about that. If you're interested, I can translate it and share here.

 

[DK]

I'd love to read it, so go ahead. 👍

 

[Rage Racer]

Here it goes.

Russia vs China. Part 1.

...I should say first, this war itself is VERY unlikely to happen - 95% of those who talk about the "Chinese threat to Russia" have no idea that China has a lot of territorial conflicts with almost all neighbours... except for Russia; overrate the natural resources of "Mother Russia" (which, as they think, are the main reason why China should attack RF) and highly exaggerate the power of Chinese army, and especially the qualitative level of it. Well, OK, let's assume that a massive epidemic of iditotism has infected China, and they decided to attack Russia.

The main strength of the PLA (People's Liberation Army) is the ground forces. So, let's see the sides' strength in the ground forces first.
On the Far East, Russia has three armies, containing 9 brigades in total. Before 2008, there was the same number of dull divisions, 3,000 men in total. But then, they were reformed to brigades, containing 4,500 men, so the troops of the Far East were de facto reinforced both in quantity and quality. The combined arms include 2 artillery brigades, 1 rocket-artillery and 3 rocket brigades.

There are two Chinese military regions bordering with the Russian Far East - Shenyang and Beijing regions, with 3 armies in each. The Shenyang MR (16th, 39th and 40th armies) includes 1 mechanized division, 3 tank brigades, 5 mechanized brigades, 6 motorised infantry and 3 artillery brigades. The Beijing MR (38th, 27th and 65th armies) includes 1 tank division and 3 mechanized divisions, 2 tank, 3 mechanized, 3 motorised infantry and 3 artillery brigades. In total, they have: 1 tank and 4 mechanized divisions, 5 tank, 8 mechanized, 9 moto-infantry and 6 artillery brigades. A Chinese mechanized division consists of 11,000-13,000 men and has 3 tank regiments and 3 mechanized regiments. So, one Chinese division equals to 3 Russian brigades. Thus, speaking about numbers, China beats about 4 times in the combined units. But quantity doesn't mean quality yet.

The combined units of Chinese military are divided in two types: s.c. Rapid Reaction Forces and Defence Forces. The RR Forces are designed for assault actions, they have the best mechs, weapons, equipment, etc. All those photos of "cool" and nicely equipped Chinese soldiers are from the rapid reaction forces.

But, in the scales of Chinese military, there's really little of them.
The Defence Forces, the basis of the PLA Ground Forces, are meant purely for defence of their assigned territories, and they are hardly capable of offensive actions. Those units are far not 100% staffed (ranging from 40% to 100%), the staff is trained poorly and the equipment and weapons are outdated.

In the mentioned Shenyang and Beijing military regions, the only rapid reaction force is the 38th army of Beijing MR.

Regarding the quality level of Chinese military, it is doubtful to be high. Their air force as a system is VERY poor (I'll explain the details later). And I doubt that the Ground Forces are better. The hardware is doubtful to be good, too. When people talk about the "highest quality level of Chinese army", they usually know nothing about the Chinese hardware, but they're sure it's just awesome. For example, let's see the tanks. Many "experts" serously refered to the Type 99 as the "best tank in the world". But in practice, it turned out not so cool. We already have analysed it here [in our community].

If we look more closely at the Chinese fighting vehicles in general, we'll see that they're just getting close to the things that USSR/Russia, USA and Europe had already learned in the late '80s and early '90s. So, there's no need to overrate the qualitative level of the Chinese, and nothing will help to close this gap quickly - neither "communism" nor "trust in Mao ideas" etc.

The advantages of Chinese military are: high strength in numbers, low sensibility to casualties and a large amount of artillery.
But there are a lot more lacks:
- insufficient rate of mechanization. This looks kinda wild in the 21st century. In Soviet Union and the USA, this problem was solved in the '50s, but China still cannot do it. On this table below, you can see the mechanization level of each Chinese army.

So you can see, the only 100% mechanized army (in the regions bordering with RF) is the 38th army of Beijing MR, the rest are about ~50%. One of them (40th) is less than 10% mechanized. Besides, many units are equipped with ancient and dull APCs and IFV's, even duller than the Soviet BMP-1. Due to this, the Chinese military starts a contest for new AFVs, with all design bureaus and a lot of private companies taking part in.
- Low qualitative level of communication units in the troops and almost full lack of EW units.
- Poor system of troops management (worse than in the Russian army).
Thus, even in ground forces, China does not have an overwhelming superiority against the RF troops.

To be continued...
[the article is already complete but I'll translate the next part later]

 

[a6m5]

Very interesting read. While I assume that China very well could be destroyed, or come close to it by picking fight with Russia, it reminded me of this thread. USA versus rest of the world.

While I don't remember this discussion getting into the numbers like you guys have on the China/Russia topic, I remember this one being a very fun discussion, and also having come out of it with much respect(fear) for the power of the U.S. Military. Super. Power. Absolutely.

 

[TenEightyOne]

I'm going to look into the history of the Senkaku islands, I struggle to agree that territorial claims going back to the 19th century cannot be vaild, @a6m5

@Rage Racer, another great write-up and very interesting indeed. In the event that my American employers ever allow me to Russia I shall buy you beer

EDIT: A machine more dull than the BMP-1? Is it a toaster?

 

[a6m5]

I'm going to look into the history of the Senkaku islands, I struggle to agree that territorial claims going back to the 19th century cannot be vaild, @a6m5

I await to see your take on it then. *shrug* If you go far back enough in history, you could say that Japan does not belong to Japanese people. Historically, we kicked around the natives when we moved in, too.

 

[TenEightyOne]

It looks like the original claim should belong to PRC and from then to ROC. Japan's "secession" (to glibly distil their political history ) gives them the next strongest claim, but that's only my opinion.

America were right to hand the islands back after the war, a cynic might say that they encouraged Japan to exercise continued sovereignty over the oil-rich area. Personally I think that Japan is very energy-hungry anyway (and certainly was by the early 70s) and would have had the idea herself.

 

[Rage Racer]

Russia vs China, Part 2.

Now, let's see the military aspects of the conflict.
As it was told before, the Chinese have 4x numbers advantage in the bordering regions. And the special threat is the Rapid Reaction troops, using the best of Chinese equipment. But we may not expect high fighting efficiency from their Defence Forces, especially from the motorised infantry brigades.

1) Theater of War
The ToW features give advantage to the Russian forces. Far East is a very underpopulated area, with a lot of completely empty territories, and it doesn't have any good road infrastructure. The Chinese offense can be using only a few key roads, besides them, there are only wild forests and hills, so there are no "bypassing manoevers" possible. In Iraq, 1991 and 2003, the Iraqi forces were setting up a "static" defence along the key roads, but the Americans bypassed them easily by simply moving straight through the desert. But in the Far East, this is impossible, because you can't move tanks and cars through deep forests. So, the directions of Chinese attacks will be very predictable, and it won't be hard for Russia to concetrate the troops on these lines.

Unfortunately, the biggest cities of the Russian Far East - Khabarovsk and Vladivostok - are located pretty close to the Chinese border, and the hopes to keep them secured (especially Vladivostok) are weak, so a few millions of civilians will have to be evacuated.
Such a large scale of the theater will cause supply problems to the Chinese, they'll have to supply the army a few times bigger then the Russian.

The China-paranoids often say that the Chinese will cut the Transsiberian Railway and the Russian Far East troops will be cut away from the other part of the country. Yes, the Transsib is situated in 80-100 km from the border, so the Chinese will reach it sooner or later. But everyone usually forgets about the BAM (Baikal-Amur Mainline), which was built right for this occasion. It's located in the depth of Russian territory and invulnerable to the Chinese. So, China will not be able to prevent the deployment of backups from Western and Central Military Districts and the supply of the troops.

2) Air forces
You may ask - what about the aviation? Well, the situation around the air forces is very sad for China. 75% of the Chinese aviation are fighters. Their park of attack aviation is very small and includes only a few tens of "somehow modern" planes. China also has about 120 of H-6 bombers (a Chinese copy of the Soviet Tu-16), but, first - they are ancient like **** of a mammoth, and it's not clear how many of them are really able to fight. And second - they're very slow, and don't employ any somehow modern AGMs (air-to-ground missiles). So, in case of attempt to perform strikes on some objects in the depth of RF territory, they will be highly vunerable and will take large losses without making any serious damage to the Russian troops.
In total, China has about 450 modern fighter jets (Su-30MKK / Su-27SK / J-11A / J-11B / J-10). On the Far East, Russia has 5 squadrons of Su-27SM, one Su-35 squadron, 2 MiG-31 squadrons, 3 Su-25 squadrons, one Su-24 squadron and 3 Su-24M2 squadrons, and 3 squadrons of Su-24MR recon aircrafts.

So we can see, China beats in numbers of the fighters. But, first - in case of war, the Russian aviation will most likely be reinforced by aircrafts from other military districts. Second, it's doubtful that China will deploy all of its air force, or even the biggest part. By the way, the J-11B (which is an "independent" Chinese copy of the Su-27) is very doubtful to engage in combat because of incredibly small engine duration - 50 hours. And note that the PLA Air Force do not have any qualitative advantage, no - they completely suck as a system.

Besides, even though the Russian Air Force is not so massive in numbers, it is compensated by extremely powerful anti-aircraft defence. The AA forces even on the Far East alone are very massive, they possess the newest S-400 Triumph SAM systems, let alone the fact that it they can easily be reinforced by backups from other MDs. It should be mentioned that the Russian AA units are designed for effective counteraction to American air forces, which the Chinese are not even close to. The PLA Air Force does not possess any modern attack aircrafts, any precise weapons, they lack not only specific electronic warfare planes, but even attached EW containers. Even with the local Russian AA defense on the Far East, China won't be able to struggle, and any actions of the Chinese aviation on the RF territory will result in unpunished destroying of their aircrafts.
By the way, the Far East AA troops have the best training level in the whole Russia, they carry out 50-60 shooting exercises per year.

Thus, in case of war with Russia, the Chinese air forces will be almost useless, they won't damage the Russian troops much or prevent them from proper supply or backup deployment.
Meanwhile, the Russian Air Force can effectively attack the rear of the Chinese troops, especially the second line. Only the "Rapid Reaction" forces have somehow modern AA units, but the second line almost doesn't (antique AA guns don't count), so in case of war, they'll be easy targets for the Russian aviation, especially the helicopters.

To be continued...
again.

EDIT: A machine more dull than the BMP-1? Is it a toaster?

Something really similar to a toaster. Like this.

 

[a6m5]

It looks like the original claim should belong to PRC and from then to ROC. Japan's "secession" (to glibly distil their political history ) gives them the next strongest claim, but that's only my opinion.

I'm confused. By "original claim", are you suggesting that land should be returned to who was there first? I'm also confused about Japan's secession. Which secession are you referring to, and how does it help Japan? P.S. I'm not being a smart ass.

America were right to hand the islands back after the war, a cynic might say that they encouraged Japan to exercise continued sovereignty over the oil-rich area. Personally I think that Japan is very energy-hungry anyway (and certainly was by the early 70s) and would have had the idea herself.

Energy hungry? Is China not energy hungry? In fact, the very popular theories on why China started their claim for Senkaku Island around 1970, and only then were: 1) Potential oil/natural gas was discovered in the region in 1968, followed by more studies in '69. 2) U.S. was due to return Okinawa back to Japan, prefecture these islands belongs to.

 

[TenEightyOne]

Japanese history is complicated, a situation not helped by an apparent Japanese willingness to rewrite history whenever required, or at least to stick to versions of events that seem to fly in the face of known facts. They're devolved from China and are a country in their own right as recognised by the world. China take a different view. Then there's Taiwan (ROC) which is recognised as a Republic. Except by China. And some of Japan.

Should land go back to the people who were there first? I'd be inclined towards saying yes, but only as a generalisation. In this case I think the islands should be Chinese.

When I called Japan "energy hungry" it might have been better for me to write "energy starved". That's why nuclear power has been so important to them, they have to buy a lot of energy in.

The US did indeed 'take' the land from the Japanese (the whole Pacific agenda of the US/Japan is definitely a whole other topic) during the war and did indeed return it to them. That's not to say that the Japanese should have been there in the first place.

 

[a6m5]

Japanese history is complicated, a situation not helped by an apparent Japanese willingness to rewrite history whenever required, or at least to stick to versions of events that seem to fly in the face of known facts.

I don't see how that's unique in this situation. Isn't China also guilty of this, if not more?

They're devolved from China....

When did this take place?

.... and are a country in their own right as recognised by the world. China take a different view.

What is their view?

Then there's Taiwan (ROC) which is recognised as a Republic. Except by China. And some of Japan.

Some of Japan? U.S. & Japan both switched the official diplomatic recognition of ROC to PRC in '71.

When I called Japan "energy hungry" it might have been better for me to write "energy starved". That's why nuclear power has been so important to them, they have to buy a lot of energy in.

Let me state this again: China is the one that begun their territorial claim after the energy resources were discovered in the area. For Japan, we simply don't want to give up our territory. Oil, or no oil. It does not matter.

That's not to say that the Japanese should have been there in the first place.

I don't see the point. That would apply to almost any major power ever existed.

 

[TenEightyOne]

Wu clan claim to be descended from Jeijang province, some written evidence seems to support this but it's clear from many similarities that parts of Japanese and Chinese social culture go back a long way and that effectively the Japanese culture is a separation from Chinese culture as recently as 2500 years ago.

I got my PRC/ROC back to front in a moment of elderly confusion; I'll restate. China sees Taiwan as belonging to China, as did the US after the war (stating that it was land 'stolen' from China).

The Senkaku islands were also included in the return treaty but were never handed back. It seems that at some post-war point the US recognised Chinese ownership of the islands. I think you're incorrect about China's territorial claim by about 800 years, but I'm trying to find a better source than my memory of a map I read about twenty years ago

EDIT: I just found a wiki article on the dispute but the English is so bastardised in parts that it's hard to follow some of it. Some of the cits are interesting though.

 

[a6m5]

Wu clan claim to be descended from Jeijang province, some written evidence seems to support this but it's clear from many similarities that parts of Japanese and Chinese social culture go back a long way and that effectively the Japanese culture is a separation from Chinese culture as recently as 2500 years ago.

When you mentioned "secession", I was afraid this was what you were referring to. Couple of thousands ago, countless regime changes ago, I don't think it's relevant to Cold War era territorial dispute, involving current Japanese & Chinese government. We also used to be monkeys, who cares.

I got my PRC/ROC back to front in a moment of elderly confusion; I'll restate. China sees Taiwan as belonging to China, as did the US after the war (stating that it was land 'stolen' from China).

China, yes. U.S., never officially. By "stolen", I assume by the Japanese? By the time Taiwan was returned to the Chinese, ROC, an ally to the U.S. was already in power there.

The Senkaku islands were also included in the return treaty but were never handed back. It seems that at some post-war point the US recognised Chinese ownership of the islands.

By "return treaty", I assume you are referring to Potsdam, Cairo, etc. declarations? Senkaku was a deserted, uninhabited islands stuck in the area between Japan & China when they were annexed by the Japanese. They were not handed back to the Chinese, because they were not taken from the Chinese, certainly not in wars these declarations covered.

I think you're incorrect about China's territorial claim by about 800 years, but I'm trying to find a better source than my memory of a map I read about twenty years ago

But we are not talking about historical territorial claim. For something like the third time, this territorial dispute in discussion did not start until around 1970, when energy was discovered in the region, only then the Chinese begin claiming the islands. Chinese could have owned it 800 years ago, maybe a herd of triceratops before that if you go far enough back in history, but you are talking about ancient history long before the dispute even existed.

 

[Dotini]

Four days ago a Chinese Su-27 fighter intercepted a US Navy P-8 patrol aircraft east of Hainan Island in the South China Sea.

The warplane flew within 10 meters of the US Navy plane, flying above, underneath and alongside it. At one point it performed "a barrel roll" in an apparent display of its weapons.

The Pentagon says the waters are international, but China has proclaimed the waters its territory and set up an Air Defence Identification Zone (ADIZ) in the East China Sea, and saying that aircraft flying through the zone must follow its rules, including filing flight plans.

See map and article.
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-28905504#

The Chinese military has said an ADIZ must be established in the South China Sea.
http://thediplomat.com/2014/02/pla-officer-china-must-establish-south-china-sea-adiz/

 

[ExigeEvan]

This is exactly the same that has been going on above the North Sea and off Alaska for 60 years, it really isn't a big issue.

The Chinese won't start shooting down jets because of an arbitrary zone they've created, they're not stupid.