I don't normally predict, but I see one of a couple different scenarios this weekend.
IF we still had the double DRS zone, as we did last year, I would predict Mercedes dominance. As it sits, the track still has a lot of straight, full throttle sections and seems to have favored cars with reasonable straightline speed in the past. We've seen McLaren win the last 2 races here, in years when Red Bull was dominant in this stretch at other tracks. They won the 3 before and the race after in 2011, while taking 2 of 3 before and 1 after in 2010. They would have taken all 3 races before in 2010 if not for the Vettel/Webber incident in Turkey.
All of that to say, I don't see this as being a track that suits Red Bull particularly well. And yes, I realize Button had to make a spectacular pass in the rain to win last year, but look where he came from in the field to take that win. I think that's a strong testament to McLaren having the better car (and certainly the better setup) for that weekend.
I think for this weekend, we will likely see -
- Mercedes coming back into qualifying form
- McLaren showing vast improvement over the past few races
- Lotus demonstrating the same strong race pace they have shown for much of the season
If the weather remains coolish and Mercedes has a decent handle on setup for their tires, they are the likely winner.
If McLaren can keep from having qualifying incidents, pit incidents, or mental errors from their drivers, they will likely be toward the front of the field and in contention for the win, should Mercedes have tire issues.
Lotus will be there to capitalize in the even that both Mercedes and McLaren have the issues mentioned.
The way the season has gone, we could easily see a 7th winner in 7 races. Schumacher, Hamilton, Raikkonen, or Grosjean should all be in the hunt.
We could also see our first repeat winner, with Button and Rosberg being strong contenders.