2014 NASCAR Thread

[JMoney]

Gotta work next Saturday... I'll have to record it and stay away from the internet until I watch it.

 

[samurai8juice]

Gotta work next Saturday... I'll have to record it and stay away from the internet until I watch it.

You'll have to stay away from everything...

 

[Jahgee]

From /r/NASCAR, next Saturday's clinching scenarios for various drivers making the chase

At this moment, Ryan Newman and Greg Biffle hold the provisional chase positions, Ryan Newman with 747 points and Greg Biffle with 728. The only drivers mathematically eligible to displace Biffle and/or Newman are Clint Bowyer and Kyle Larson.

• Ryan Newman: Eligible to clinch if he wins. Pretty much a shoo-in provided no tragedies at Richmond occur. He can hold onto a spot if a winless driver (with the exception of Matt Kenseth) goes to victory lane and he finishes no worse than 24th if Biffle finishes 2nd with no laps led, 23rd if Biffle leads a lap, 22nd if Biffle leads the most laps. If Greg Biffle wins, Ryan Newman clinches over Clint Bowyer by finishing 42nd or better if Bowyer finishes 2nd, 3rd and leads a lap, or 4th and leads the most laps, or 43rd if Bowyer finishes 2nd and leads a lap or 3rd and leads the most laps. If Kyle Larson finishes 2nd, Ryan Newman can clinch over him by finishing better than 43rd and/or leading a lap.

• Greg Biffle: Eligible to clinch if he wins. If a winless driver that isn't Ryan Newman or Matt Kenseth wins at Richmond, Greg Biffle has to make up 19 points on Ryan Newman (19 points results in a tie, the advantage to Biffle based in 2nd place finishes). If Biffle finished 2nd, to gain 19 points on Newman, Newman would have to finish 21st or worse, 20th if Biffle led a lap, 19th if Biffle led the most laps. If a repeat winner, Kenseth, or Newman wins, Greg Biffle can lose 23 points to Clint Bowyer and 24 to Kyle Larson. If Bowyer finishes 2nd, Greg Biffle can finish no worse than 25th, 26th if Greg leads a lap, 27th if he leads the most laps. If Larson finishes 2nd AND Clint Bowyer is not a factor, Greg Biffle clinches if he finishes no worse than 26th, 27th if Greg leads a lap, 28th if he leads the most laps.

• Clint Bowyer: Eligible to clinch if he wins. If a winless driver that isn't Matt Kenseth or Ryan Newman wins at Richmond, Clint Bowyer has to make up 42 points on Ryan Newman (42 points results in a tie, Bowyer wins the tiebreaker based on most 4th place finishes). The only way this is possible is if Ryan was to have a terminal accident or have a mechanical failure early, as Ryan Newman would have to finish 41st if Bowyer doesn't lead and finishes 2nd, 42nd if Bowyer leads a lap, 43rd if Bowyer leads the most laps AND Greg Biffle can finish no better than 24th, 25th if Biffle leads a lap. If a repeat winner, Matt Kenseth, or Ryan Newman wins at Richmond, Bowyer can displace Greg Biffle from the chase if he gains 24 points on him - if Bowyer finishes 2nd, Greg can finish no better than 26th, 25th if Bowyer leads a lap, 24th if Bowyer leads the most laps. If Bowyer does not win, Greg Biffle finishes in the top 24, and Ryan Newman finishes in the top 42, Clint Bowyer will be eliminated. If Clint Bowyer finishes worse than 19th at Richmond, he will be eliminated.

• Kyle Larson: Eligible to clinch if he wins, and it would be far more likely than this scenario: If a winless driver that isn't Ryan Newman or Matt Kenseth wins the race, Kyle can displace Ryan Newman if Newman finishes last with no laps led AND Greg Biffle, provided he wasn't the winner, finishes no better than 24th with no laps led, 25th with a lap led, 26th with the most laps led. Clint Bowyer, unless he won, would not be a factor in this situation, as Larson will have gained at least 2 points on Clint Bowyer. In the event of a tie, it is broken by Larson against Newman based on 2nd place finishes, against Biffle based on 3rd place finishes, and against Bowyer based on 2nd place finishes. Kyle Larson cannot mathematically usurp Ryan Newman without winning - only tie, unless for some unforeseen reason Ryan Newman does not start at Richmond, in which Larson can only best him by a single point, and he'd still have to finish 3rd and lead the most laps. If a repeat winner, Matt Kenseth, or Ryan Newman wins the race, Larson can displace Greg Biffle from the chase if he finishes 2nd with no laps led and Greg Biffle finishes no better than 24th, 25th if Biffle leads a lap, 26th if Biffle leads the most laps. Kyle Larson has to gain 1 point on Clint Bowyer to pass him in points and be the first man out of the chase. If Larson finishes 2nd with no laps led, Bowyer must finish worse than 3rd with a lap led or 4th with the most laps led for Larson to overtake him. If Kyle Larson doesn't win, Ryan Newman does not finish last OR leads a lap, Greg Biffle finishes better than 24th, OR Clint Bowyer finishes ahead of Larson (both leading laps) in the event of Greg Biffle finishing worse than 24th-26th (depending on laps led) and Ryan Newman finishing last, Kyle Larson will be eliminated. If Kyle Larson finishes worse than 19th at Richmond, he will be eliminated.

• Paul Menard: Paul Menard must win, else he will be eliminated.

• Austin Dillon: Austin Dillon must win, else he will be eliminated.

• Jamie McMurray: Jamie McMurray must win, else he will be eliminated.

• Brian Vickers: Brian Vickers must win, else he will be eliminated.

• Marcos Ambrose: Marcos Ambrose must win, else he will be eliminated.

• Casey Mears: Casey Mears must win, else he will be eliminated.

• Martin Truex, Jr.: Martin Truex Jr must win, else he will be eliminated.

• Tony Stewart: Tony Stewart must win, else he will be eliminated.

• Ricky Stenhouse, Jr.: Ricky Stenhouse Jr must win, else he will be eliminated.

• Danica Patrick: Danica Patrick must win, else she will be eliminated.

• Justin Allgaier: Justin Allgaier must win, else he will be eliminated.

• Michael Annett: Michael Annett must win, else he will be eliminated.

• David Gilliland: Gilliland trails Annett, who holds the 30th spot, by 1 point. If Gilliland somehow won at Richmond, a win worth 3 points on its own, it would put Gilliland back into the top 30 and into chase contention, even if Annett led the most laps before Gilliland won (Not sure that'll happen though). David Gilliland must win, else he will be eliminated.

• David Ragan: In the unlikely event David Ragan won and led the most laps, Michael Annett must finish no better than 23rd, 24th if he leads a lap, AND David Gilliland must finish no better than 24th, 25th if he leads a lap. David Ragan must win, else he will be eliminated.

• Cole Whitt: If in the highly unlikely event Cole Whitt won and led the most laps, Michael Annett must finish no better than 36th, 37th if he leads a lap, AND David Gilliland must finish no better than 35th, 36th if he leads a lap, AND David Ragan must finish no better than 13th, 14th if he leads a lap. Cole Whitt must win, else he will be eliminated.

 

[cnd01]

Heck of a race! @polarbear345 and I were sitting in the quad oval section right by the pit in. Brad K's crash was right in front of us. The fans were really awesome. Lots of fun and here's the video I got of the start:

 

[meek]

nvm misread the Atlanta results.

 

[GTPorsche]

The 47 was pulled out of the race after 258 laps.

 

[cnd01]

A.J. was super fun to watch during the race. He had literally 4 flat tires in the first 5 tire stints, so he always had fresh tires when the leaders didn't. He was weaving in and out of the field and passing cars left, right, and center. Tough break for him though

 

[Blitz24]

Good job Mr France!
40th #47 AJ Allmendinger

started 23rd
258 laps
0 laps led
-2 places in standings
Vibration
4 points scored
0 bonus

Out after 4 laps... "vibration" is the common excuse for Start and Park teams. I like Dinger but this just shouldn't happen.

FTFY

 

[GTPorsche]

Turner Scott Motorsports #30 CWTS team has been shut down, and 18 people have been laid off as a result.

 

[Ganon83]

Turner Scott Motorsports #30 CWTS team has been shut down, and 18 people have been laid off as a result.

wtg Steve Turner. Keep doing what you've been doing, bud.

 

[AMPMROCKETFANN]

Turner Scott Motorsports #30 CWTS team has been shut down, and 18 people have been laid off as a result.

wtg Steve Turner. Keep doing what you've been doing, bud.

Utter travesty right here. Guess Hornaday should hit up Thorsport for a 4th truck now.

 

[RACECAR]

Looks like the kids are now fully feeling the effect of this divorce

Gotta work next Saturday... I'll have to record it and stay away from the internet until I watch it.

You better prey no one at your workplace is a huge NASCAR fan (or that the TVs don't have ESPN on) otherwise you aren't safe.

 

[JMoney]

Looks like the kids are now fully feeling the effect of this divorce

You better prey no one at your workplace is a huge NASCAR fan (or that the TVs don't have ESPN on) otherwise you aren't safe.

Naaah. NASCAR fans are much more rare than you would think in Kentucky.

 

[Adamgp]

Anyone else waiting for a last minute addition by Nascar of a fan vote to try and get Danica in the chase?

 

[GTPorsche]

I'll just wait for the "Must have one female racer in the Chase" ruling addition. If they did a fan vote, we'd get Josh Wise instead.

 

[RVDNuT374]

Anyone else waiting for a last minute addition by Nascar of a fan vote to try and get Danica in the chase?

That announcement will cause some object to go flying towards my TV screen at a high velocity.

 

[RACECAR]

That'll be fun to explain how you broke your TV.

As for the chase, I suspect that Danica is no longer popular enough to warrant that. She lost to Josh Wise in the All-star fan vote, think that alone tells you its a wasted effort.

 

[GTPorsche]

Well, there was a massive backing from reddit to put Josh Wise in. Danica got more votes this year than she had last year, so to say she's no longer popular is completely not the case.

 

[Blitz24]

What's next? Will we use fan voting to determine who gets eliminated from the Chase?

 

[Carbonox]

Well, there was a massive backing from reddit to put Josh Wise in. Danica got more votes this year than she had last year, so to say she's no longer popular is completely not the case.

I guess we're in luck with the fact she also happens to be very unpopular, to the point where people have started these massive campaigns to make sure someone else gets in the All-Star Race instead.

 

[RACECAR]

Well, there was a massive backing from reddit to put Josh Wise in. Danica got more votes this year than she had last year, so to say she's no longer popular is completely not the case.

Except that's not what I said:

That'll be fun to explain how you broke your TV.
As for the chase, I suspect that Danica is no longer popular enough to warrant that. She lost to Josh Wise in the All-star fan vote, think that alone tells you its a wasted effort.

No question she is still popular, but not nearly as much when she first came in and when Youtube user Gadgefan48 had enough footage to make a 10 minute video with the amount of times her name was mentioned if he wanted to.

 

[Ganon83]

Even TV has stayed away from her for the most part, unless she's near the front for whatever reason.

 

[JMoney]

I still want to see Petty race her.

 

[GTPorsche]

What's next? Will we use fan voting to determine who gets eliminated from the Chase?

Dale Jr wins every championship ever if that happens.

 

[meek]

Plate races qualifying rules have been revised, in effect at Talladega in October.
Worse than before IMHO, perhaps going back to the old qualifying format would be the best/safest idea?

______________________


Harvick to sport one of the coolest looking car this year at Richmond , reminds me of Hamlin's Autism Speaks scheme, basically just one main color with small white text; very sober yet efficient:

Once again quali doesn't prove anything other than what I said. This has been true for all forms of racing, what would have proved your point is if he didn't pick up where he left off, after his hiatus. Which is bad luck, optimistic looking runs and fans or hopefuls having nothing to show for standing in his corner race weekend. I've always been a fan of Stewart the racer (not the man per say) but nothing coming into this weekend indicated to me that he was going to do anything special.

The point of my other post was he still seemed shaken up and not fully prepared and along with is prior runs before the the incident playing into it. If qualifying is all it takes for you to believe that something good is going to happen, then those in the top 4-5 in points right now at various times this year shouldn't have been on your radar for not even qualifying in the top 15 but finishing better than the top 15.

Also it doesn't matter what happened, the pointed shifted to this idea that qualifying is something meaningful anywhere outside of F1. You made it seem that his quali effort was enough of an indicator and you were wrong this time, try again at Richmond.

I watched the race again and Stewart climbed from 12th to 4th in the first 16 laps, I rest my case!

Seeing he won thrice at Richmond, it'll be interesting to see how he fares Saturday and if he can somehow make the Chase.

That's all well and good in the first five laps of a run, but when an entire race is run without green flag pit stops because the tires won't last a full pit cycle, there is a tire problem that isn't caused by initial inflation pressures.

I don't remember it happening this year?

 

[MustangRyan]

I don't remember it happening this year?

California had a caution about every 20-25 laps.
http://www.jayski.com/stats/2014/pdfs/05acs2014racereport.pdf

Martinsville never had a green flag set of stops, but I think more of that was due to accidents. Since I attended that race in person, I don't know if the accidents were tire-related or not.
http://www.jayski.com/stats/2014/pdfs/06mar2014racereport.pdf

Richmond, where we were openly betting on which lap the next tire would explode.
(Start reading here: https://www.gtplanet.net/forum/threads/2014-nascar-thread.290527/page-105#post-9602094)
http://www.jayski.com/stats/2014/pdfs/09rir2014racereport.pdf

Kansas, cautions every 20-40 laps, all for spins.
http://www.jayski.com/stats/2014/pdfs/11kan2014racereport.pdf

Kentucky, caution every 30-50 laps.
http://www.jayski.com/stats/2014/pdfs/17ken2014racereport.pdf

Atlanta, almost every 40 laps, like clockwork.
http://www.jayski.com/stats/2014/pdfs/25ams2014racereport.pdf

 

[RACECAR]

Harvick to sport one of the coolest looking car this year at Richmond , reminds me of Hamlin's Autism Speaks scheme, basically just one main color with small white text; very sober yet efficient:

View attachment 217878

View attachment 217880

Well, its not that simple. A keen eye will spot the beaded water texture as well as the faded Budweiser graphics that lay within the red.

 

[GTPorsche]

Nationwide Series practice was cancelled for today due to a little bit of rain.

Spoiler

 

[meek]

Well, its not that simple. A keen eye will spot the beaded water texture as well as the faded Budweiser graphics that lay within the red.

nice! I saw the water drops but not the faded graphics.
Anyone knows what that AB logo is?

Hamlin's car:


By sober I meant few colors, simple pattern (droplets for #4, names and puzzle pieces for #11)...

California had a caution about every 20-25 laps.
http://www.jayski.com/stats/2014/pdfs/05acs2014racereport.pdf

Martinsville never had a green flag set of stops, but I think more of that was due to accidents. Since I attended that race in person, I don't know if the accidents were tire-related or not.
http://www.jayski.com/stats/2014/pdfs/06mar2014racereport.pdf

Richmond, where we were openly betting on which lap the next tire would explode.
(Start reading here: https://www.gtplanet.net/forum/threads/2014-nascar-thread.290527/page-105#post-9602094)
http://www.jayski.com/stats/2014/pdfs/09rir2014racereport.pdf

Kansas, cautions every 20-40 laps, all for spins.
http://www.jayski.com/stats/2014/pdfs/11kan2014racereport.pdf

Kentucky, caution every 30-50 laps.
http://www.jayski.com/stats/2014/pdfs/17ken2014racereport.pdf

Atlanta, almost every 40 laps, like clockwork.
http://www.jayski.com/stats/2014/pdfs/25ams2014racereport.pdf

seems to me like you're looking at the cautions as always being the result of a tire problem, they aren't.

When they are, 1 car out of 43 having a problem isn't = "Goodyear makes bad tires", it could be the setup, the driving style, driver running over debris, one bad set of tires (out of how many, 430 per weekend, not counting lower Series?), etc... Goodyear is doing an adequate job, you don't regularly beat track records (like drivers have this year, prompting to new 2015 aero rules) with crappy tires. Perfect? sure not.

@GTPorsche
this is from Richmond??

 

[GTPorsche]

Yeah. It's not that deep everywhere inside the track, but that's a lot of water to deal with.

https://twitter.com/MartySmithESPN/status/507636037741330432

In the background you can see that the track itself isn't covered in water.