2018 FIFA World Cup Finals
- Thread starter Famine
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- Nelson, England
- GTP_ASH32
Yes Japan was a much better draw for England, there's good chance they'll lose now and even if they do beat Colombia they'd then face another decent team where they would be the favourites to win and get to the Semis, no way they'll deal with that pressure, they'd find a way to lose for sure.
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For a next game, perhaps. Not for the tournament.
England's path to the semi-finals is now:
Columbia -> Sweden/Switzerland -> Spain/Russia or Croatia/Denmark
Belgium's path to the semi-finals is now:
Japan -> Brazil/Mexico -> Uruguay/Portugal or France/Argentina
That's quite a difference - Belgium may have to face Asian champions, then World or CONCACAF champions, then UEFA or CONMEBOL champions, whereas England could reach the final without playing anyone who has ever won anything. Or a Spain semi.
zzz_pt
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- zzz_pt
They must have gotten a word from FIFA during the half time break. There were a lot of whistles and "buuhs" in the first half. England didn't even shot once to the goal during the whole game. ^^
Theoretically England has an easier path to the final.
Theoretically England has an easier path to the final.
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- Nelson, England
- GTP_ASH32
@Famine The main problem with your logical, long term approach, is that England would/will lose one of the next two matches with either draw anyway, everybody knows this, so there's no point getting way ahead of that and one knockout win would be better than none in my book, even if it's all of little importance in the end.
Though I admit had Belgium finished second I'd have fancied them to get to the Final with that path, now it's much more difficult for them.
Though I admit had Belgium finished second I'd have fancied them to get to the Final with that path, now it's much more difficult for them.
zzz_pt
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Wasn't Senegal's penalty a penalty? It looks a penalty to me and the ref decided to revert it after the VAR review.
Tough one for Senegal.
BTW, FIFA have said that the only "gross mistake" with the VAR system during the group phase was the penalty against Portugal (vs Iran).
They are counting only wrong decisions made AFTER watching the VAR images, not decisions made by the VAR refs that thought the main ref in the pitch shouldn't review the images, such as Costa vs Pepe, Boateng vs Berg, the push to Miranda in Brazil vs Switzerland or the tackle on Kane (for penalty).
That sent us to the toughest bracket but I think there were other mistakes.
Tough one for Senegal.
BTW, FIFA have said that the only "gross mistake" with the VAR system during the group phase was the penalty against Portugal (vs Iran).
They are counting only wrong decisions made AFTER watching the VAR images, not decisions made by the VAR refs that thought the main ref in the pitch shouldn't review the images, such as Costa vs Pepe, Boateng vs Berg, the push to Miranda in Brazil vs Switzerland or the tackle on Kane (for penalty).
That sent us to the toughest bracket but I think there were other mistakes.
Last edited:
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https://www.gtplanet.net/forum/threads/2018-fifa-world-cup-finals.370234/#post-12086204
Why?
England lost in the Euros to Iceland, in the most improbable fashion. They'd have no problem losing to Japan.
It's also worth noting that a lot of (although not all of) the World Cup so far has gone to qualification form. Brazil romped through theirs, and are three for three with no goals conceded. Argentina struggled, and only just escaped the group stages. France, Spain, Belgium, Portugal and England all qualified top of their groups - with THREE defeats between them - and are all comfortably in the last 16, along with Switzerland who had the same record as Portugal. Serbia and Poland both conceded more than any other group winner and are out (Poland twice as much as the next winner after Serbia, Iceland, who are also out). None of the African sides won more than four of their six final group games; all are out. Mexico blitzed the CONCACAF qualifiers, and reached the last 16, Costa Rica and Panama qualified late - very late in Panama's case, and only due to some ineptitude from US Soccer - and are out.
The flip side is Denmark, Sweden, Croatia and Switzerland, who all had tough groups and came through the playoffs (although Switzerland outpointed five group winners, including England), now qualified to the last 16. And Iran, who monstered their group, but are out.
Taking that form and looking at the last 16, England's potential opponents were Japan and Colombia.
Japan topped their qualification group - ahead of Saudi Arabia and Australia - scoring the (joint) most and conceding the least. Colombia on the other hand was the lowest ranked automatic qualifier in their region, 4th of four (5th place Peru qualified through the interconfederation playoff with New Zealand), qualifying on the last possible day, with a draw against Peru (having lost the previous week to non-qualifier) Paraguay.
Sure Colombia are ranked higher, but Poland were ranked 8th in the world thanks to manipulating the system (by not playing friendlies) and it did sod all for them. And Japan beat Colombia in the group's first match (with the help of a 6th minute red card and a penalty)!
As far as I'm concerned, the two opponents are broadly similar in difficulty, but have slightly different challenges - I think England would find Japan harder to break down, particularly through midfield, and would need the strikers to bury the chances they get, but will find Colombia more wearing on their own defence and more susceptible to the set-play goals like the ones they scored against Panama. It's much of a muchness to get through.
After that, the winning team would have to face one of two teams that qualified on the last possible day via the UEFA playoffs and have one World Cup final appearance between them. And then probably Spain in the semi-finals, as that four team group is two teams that qualified on the last possible day via UEFA playoffs and have a European Championship and a World Cup third place between them, and the host country which didn't qualify and had the almost the easiest possible draw...
But then England lost in the Euros against Iceland
Since Colombia won its only Copa America in 2001, Brazil has won two more Copa America titles, a World Cup, three Confederations Cups and the Olympics.
While I don't think anyone say Germany getting dumped out of the World Cup at this stage, there was a general feeling that the German squad was... past it. A lot of people expected Germany to just carry on regardless - it does tend to win things when least expected (I'm not sure anyone expected the 2014 World Cup win either [or Argentina to make the final) - but despite the ranking and easy qualification, Germany wasn't hugely fancies. Eyes were very much on the young side that won the 2017 Confederations Cup and the fact Low named pretty much the same old side (seriously though, no Sane?) made a lot of wrinkled foreheads.
Had they made it through the group stage, I think the bottom half of the draw would be a lot more worrisome than it is!
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Way to move the goalposts.
Brazil last won the World Cup in 2002.
Colombia last won Copa America in 2001.
Not much of a difference if you ask me.
So since you labeled Brazil as World Champions, it's a bit unfair to throw Colombia into the 'teams who have never won anything' pile in the "England could reach the final without playing anyone who has ever won anything" statement. Colombia have won something. Not this squad, but this Brazil has never won a World Cup either, so clearly you're not restricting achievements to recent years.
But, as I stated earlier, it's not of much relevance.
- 29,377
- Glasgow
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So in our World Cup game at work, I correctly predicted 5 of the Last 16 fixtures, while I got 2 half right (Peru and Poland let me down) and one completely wrong (Germany and Serbia) - but this has helped me climb from an embarrassing 55th (out of 61) last week to a respectable 23rd. Unfortunately I have no chance of winning as I predicted Germany to win the tournament, and you score points for every game your chosen winners play in the Last 16, so I'm stuffed. I also correctly predicted all four results yesterday and even got the correct score for Belgium v England...
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It was 'fun' watching the game in a packed Glasgow pub in 30 degree heat last night - there were at least 2 (Scottish) people wearing Belgium tops though there was more people supporting England than there was 'ABE' supporters. Yet it was rather ironic that the ABE crowd were seemingly unaware that they should have been wanting England to win last night, since now they will avoid Brazil in the Quarter Finals, so the joke was really on them.
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It was 'fun' watching the game in a packed Glasgow pub in 30 degree heat last night - there were at least 2 (Scottish) people wearing Belgium tops though there was more people supporting England than there was 'ABE' supporters. Yet it was rather ironic that the ABE crowd were seemingly unaware that they should have been wanting England to win last night, since now they will avoid Brazil in the Quarter Finals, so the joke was really on them.
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Incidentally, my predictions in December were:
If you want to go back far enough, then Denmark won UEFA 92, and Sweden were in a World Cup final in 1958, but it's a bit of a stretch to relate 1992's Denmark to 2018's.
Several (I think seven) members of the last Confederations Cup win and the Olympics win are in the current Brazil World Cup squad. Including Neymar. None of the goalkeepers though, weirdly. I don't think any of Columbia's squad includes 2001 Copa America winners, but I may be wrong.
And the actual 2nd round is
11 of 16, and four of eight ties exactly right30/06/2018 1 -Uruguay -
Portugal
30/06/2018 2 -France -
Argentina
01/07/2018 5 -Spain -
Russia
01/07/2018 6 -Croatia -
Denmark
02/07/2018 3 -Brazil -
Mexico
02/07/2018 4 -Belgium -
Japan
03/07/2018 7 -Sweden -
Switzerland
03/07/2018 8 -Colombia -
England
Not really, no. The point remains that Belgium has Confederation and World champion nations in their way in every round if they want to get to the final, and England does not (aside from Spain).
If you want to go back far enough, then Denmark won UEFA 92, and Sweden were in a World Cup final in 1958, but it's a bit of a stretch to relate 1992's Denmark to 2018's.
To reiterate, since Colombia won Copa in 2001, Brazil has won a World Cup (2002), two more Copa America titles (2004, 2007), three Confederations Cups (2005, 2009, 2013) and the Olympics (2017). Those last four are world events - the Olympics is a world level U-23 tournament (with some older players permitted), and the Confederations Cup is a tournament between the champions of each of the six FIFA confederations, the World Cup winners and the nation hosting the event (usually the nation hosting the next World Cup).
Several (I think seven) members of the last Confederations Cup win and the Olympics win are in the current Brazil World Cup squad. Including Neymar. None of the goalkeepers though, weirdly. I don't think any of Columbia's squad includes 2001 Copa America winners, but I may be wrong.
- 29,377
- Glasgow
- GTP_Mars
Awesome equaliser by Pavard - turning into a brilliant game here!
- 29,377
- Glasgow
- GTP_Mars
France showing great tenacity to come back to lead 3-2...
Gem of a comment from the BBC co-commentator: "The goalkeeper should have done better..." - well duh!
And it's 4-2
Argentina look dead and buried.
Gem of a comment from the BBC co-commentator: "The goalkeeper should have done better..." - well duh!
And it's 4-2
Argentina look dead and buried.
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