The question is where does RCR get the third charter to run Tyler Reddick next year? I doubt it will be a sale because RCR only needs it for a year...unless Richard Childress is planning on bringing in Ty Dillon for 2024 after putting him in a family Xfinity ride next year. Edit - I forgot that Noah Gragson is driving the 42 next year.
The most-likely (assuming a lease situation) - Rick Ware Racing leases out the 15 charter, especially if that team loses another 5 points to the 77 (I believe the 15 has the tiebreaker, so it's 5, not 4) to drop into the bottom 3. That would make 2 years in a row in the bottom 3 for that charter (both as the 15), and 3 in a row in the bottom 3 allegedly results in NASCAR seizing the charter. That is something RWR avoided this past off-season with some "questionable" management of the 15 team in 2021 to allow Cody Ware and the 51 to finish 7 points ahead of the 15 and avoid having that charter finish 3 years in a row in the bottom 3 (taken back by "partner" Petty and run with a bit more success as the 42 Petty GMS team), and something they avoided for the next off-season by unloading the 53 charter after that team finished 2020 and 2021 in the bottom 3 (more on that former 53 charter in a bit). It likely would be a lease as RWR is going to need that charter to extend Cody Ware's Cup "career" beyond 2024.
The second-most-likely...only if Kurt Busch doesn't come back and it's a lease situation - 23XI leases out the 23 charter (though they would run the 23 with the 45's charter and 2022 points) to RCR. While it would make sense for both RCR and 23XI (which would get another year to get a second pit crew of its own put together), Toyota may well scuttle this as it would bring them back down to 5 TRD teams. Related - I think they could lease out the 45 charter next year; that charter was leased out to StarCom by RCR (specifically the 27) in 2018 before being sold to StarCom in 2019 and 23XI this year after StarCom's aptly-numbered 00 finished 2020 and 2021 in the bottom 3.
The second-most-likely if Busch is back (and the almost-certainty with a sale rather than a lease if the other Dillon is ticketed for a 2024 RCR ride) - Petty GMS leases out or sells the 42 charter. The ride is open next year because Dillon was already given his notice, and Petty GMS gets its engines from RCR (well, ECR, though the "Earnhardt" is essentially ceremonial). There could be some hard feelings over the way the other grandson was pre-dismissed from the ride, and I suspect Petty GMS would rather sell if they're going to cut to 1 team next year. That is also the former 51 charter that was 7 points away from being seized by NASCAR this past off-season, before Petty GMS took back sole ownership/control.
Long-shot part 1 The second-most-likely if Busch is back and it's a lease situation - Kaulig leases out the 16 charter. Kaulig still wants to have 2 full-time teams with 2 full-time drivers, but they won't have anybody to bring up unless AJ Allmendinger wants back in Cup full-time, something he didn't want to do this year. might not deem Noah Gragson ready for prime time, especially since Justin Haley has the rookie driver/rookie team blues. If they don't bring up Gragson, They might decide to focus all their Cup efforts on 1 team for a season as trying 2 teams with a rookie and a rotation didn't exactly work out as planned. Also, they get their engines from RCR/ECR.
Long-shot part 1 (and the leading candidate in a sale situation) - Spire leases out or sells the 77 charter. This presupposes Spire cuts out their "driver-by-committee" team...and that the 7 doesn't lose the 48-point lead it has over the 77 to fall into the bottom 3 (again, more on that in a bit). If Spire goes back to 1 team, I suspect they'd rather sell. Also, there is no engine leverage here - Spire gets their engines from Hendrick.
Long-shot part 2 - RCR wins the NASCAR-run bidding war for the charter currently held by Spire and run as the 7. That's the charter run into the ground by RWR as the 53 team in 2020 and 2021, and Spire hasn't done much better with it as the 7 is only 2 spots and 48 points up on the bottom 3. It likely can't be leased out by Spire as it was leased by RWR (from Front Row) in 2020 before being sold to RWR in 2021. It would take continued horrible luck for the 7, great luck for the 77, and a lack of "questionable" management of the 77 team for NASCAR to seize the 7 charter, and it would be a straight sale after that, not a lease.