2024 US Presidential Election Thread
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DeSantis' ultimate problem is that he wants to be Trump's successor. But Trump is still around.
I think 2024 will be an interesting election. Since 2020, there has been a substantial movement of people from cities to surrounding suburbs, all across the USA. Even in states typically thought of as booming with larges influxes of people (Texas & Florida for instance) in the Covid and Post-Covid years have seen their major urban areas shed residents, mostly to that particular city's suburbs. If you look at each of the major metros on the map, almost all of the out-migration has been to the counties immediately adjacent to them. Only extremely large counties that happen to contain major cities (Clark - Las Vegas, Maricopoa - Phoenix, etc) seem to buck this trend, but on a legislative district level, I'd guess the result is the same. People want more space or more affordable property (or both) but they typically aren't looking to make a huge cross-country change, contrary to some speculation.
This may not mean much from an electoral standpoint in a state like California where any diffusion of Urban votes will just bring down the margins in those districts. But I have to wonder what it will do a region like DFW, which looked like this in 2020:
but has seen Dallas county (the bluest one above) shed a lot of residents to it's neighbors*, as seen below:
Now obviously not all of those that left necessarily adhere to the side that carried Dallas in '20, but anecdotally, I would guess that Dallas suburbs are getting more blue than more red.
*For instance, if you click on Ellis county, the one directly below Dallas, you'll see that most of the new residents there came from Dallas county
Ellis would very likely not swing to a Dem win in '24 due to these factors considering the 2020 results:
...but I think there is a strong possibility that Denton and Collin** (the more pink counties above) could. The thing is, if you look at this across the entire map of the USA, there are similar conditions in nearly every major metro.
**Trump won Collin Co by about 22k votes. 24,000 people moved to Collin from Dallas since then (not to mention the 2500 that moved from LA).
Anyways, I thought I would share. There are some interesting and not-small demographic changes across the whole country since 2020. If the GOP underperformed in the suburbs in 2020 (vs 2016), then I think the map is looking a lot more challenging for them heading into '24, especially if it's Trump waving the banner.
I think 2024 will be an interesting election. Since 2020, there has been a substantial movement of people from cities to surrounding suburbs, all across the USA. Even in states typically thought of as booming with larges influxes of people (Texas & Florida for instance) in the Covid and Post-Covid years have seen their major urban areas shed residents, mostly to that particular city's suburbs. If you look at each of the major metros on the map, almost all of the out-migration has been to the counties immediately adjacent to them. Only extremely large counties that happen to contain major cities (Clark - Las Vegas, Maricopoa - Phoenix, etc) seem to buck this trend, but on a legislative district level, I'd guess the result is the same. People want more space or more affordable property (or both) but they typically aren't looking to make a huge cross-country change, contrary to some speculation.
This may not mean much from an electoral standpoint in a state like California where any diffusion of Urban votes will just bring down the margins in those districts. But I have to wonder what it will do a region like DFW, which looked like this in 2020:
but has seen Dallas county (the bluest one above) shed a lot of residents to it's neighbors*, as seen below:
Now obviously not all of those that left necessarily adhere to the side that carried Dallas in '20, but anecdotally, I would guess that Dallas suburbs are getting more blue than more red.
*For instance, if you click on Ellis county, the one directly below Dallas, you'll see that most of the new residents there came from Dallas county
Ellis would very likely not swing to a Dem win in '24 due to these factors considering the 2020 results:
...but I think there is a strong possibility that Denton and Collin** (the more pink counties above) could. The thing is, if you look at this across the entire map of the USA, there are similar conditions in nearly every major metro.
**Trump won Collin Co by about 22k votes. 24,000 people moved to Collin from Dallas since then (not to mention the 2500 that moved from LA).
Anyways, I thought I would share. There are some interesting and not-small demographic changes across the whole country since 2020. If the GOP underperformed in the suburbs in 2020 (vs 2016), then I think the map is looking a lot more challenging for them heading into '24, especially if it's Trump waving the banner.
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UKMikey
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They say a stopped clock is right twice a day although some conservatives are like one of those old VCRs flashing 88:88. However, Trump may finally have said something I can unironically agree with (2nd tweet below).
I wonder what the next code word for "non-conservative values" will be should "woke" fall out of favour and join "PC" in the used pile. Would that righties'd realise it's the culture war itself that's losing them votes among moderates but I think that war is destined to last as long as the one in Oceania in that Orwell novel that they think they're the heroes of.
I wonder what the next code word for "non-conservative values" will be should "woke" fall out of favour and join "PC" in the used pile. Would that righties'd realise it's the culture war itself that's losing them votes among moderates but I think that war is destined to last as long as the one in Oceania in that Orwell novel that they think they're the heroes of.
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Mike Pence has joi...
Mike Pen...
Mike Pence has...
I'm sorry I can't complete that sentence without laughing.
Mike Pen...
Mike Pence has...
I'm sorry I can't complete that sentence without laughing.
Ex-Vice-President Mike Pence joins White House race
Mr Pence, 63, joins a field of Republicans vying to unseat frontrunner Donald Trump, his old boss.
www.bbc.co.uk
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I was up in the north Sierra mountains over the weekend for a bike race. Close to the finish line a home owner had decorated their own house with the largest "**** Joe Biden" banner (flanked by 1 American flag and 1 Confederate flag) I've ever seen. I was in a lot of pain by that point, so I mostly just kind of chuckled through the grimacing. But since then I've had a few questions
1. Did he set up this display explicitly for the race?
The implications are interesting. This either somebody's perennial home décor for virtue signaling to their also-red neighbors or somebody went through a significant amount of effort be unwelcoming to the obviously huge contingent of Joe Biden fanboy* "city folk" who came in for the race - deliberately furthering the stereotypes of rural America
2. And I mean this genuinely - is Joe Biden really that detestable? Even in rural (and frankly racist) parts of Texas, I never saw such explicit condemnation of Barack Obama - you know the famously black guy with an Arabic* name and who was notably a lot more liberal than Joe. The outrage against Joe Biden feels so hyperbolic and kind of half hearted. When I hear **** Joe Biden I don't really get genuine passion, but more of just kind of boiler plate, going through the motion partisanship. "What do I think about Joe Biden? What do I think? **** that guy!....I guess...for, you know....reasons and stuff". EVEN if you are fully aboard the anti-woke train, Joe Biden is not the guy you should be worried about - he is so very boring and middle of the road and oh so ordinarily white. I genuinely wonder how angry these people actually are versus how angry somebody has made them believe they should be.
It all left me with a kind of single thought:
Modern American conservatism has hive-minded itself into this kind of weird and inescapable kayfabe where each individual participant is too afraid to see that all the other participants are faking it too, and so the suspension of disbelief gets more and more ridiculous and detached from reality. I guess that's what happens when your leader's true calling and probably greatest aptitude was in the professional wrestling ring.
*to be clear, this is a ridiculously silly assumption. Joe Biden has no fan boys. Nobody is passionate about Joe Biden. His name is Joe for ****'s sake.
**ish.
1. Did he set up this display explicitly for the race?
The implications are interesting. This either somebody's perennial home décor for virtue signaling to their also-red neighbors or somebody went through a significant amount of effort be unwelcoming to the obviously huge contingent of Joe Biden fanboy* "city folk" who came in for the race - deliberately furthering the stereotypes of rural America
2. And I mean this genuinely - is Joe Biden really that detestable? Even in rural (and frankly racist) parts of Texas, I never saw such explicit condemnation of Barack Obama - you know the famously black guy with an Arabic* name and who was notably a lot more liberal than Joe. The outrage against Joe Biden feels so hyperbolic and kind of half hearted. When I hear **** Joe Biden I don't really get genuine passion, but more of just kind of boiler plate, going through the motion partisanship. "What do I think about Joe Biden? What do I think? **** that guy!....I guess...for, you know....reasons and stuff". EVEN if you are fully aboard the anti-woke train, Joe Biden is not the guy you should be worried about - he is so very boring and middle of the road and oh so ordinarily white. I genuinely wonder how angry these people actually are versus how angry somebody has made them believe they should be.
It all left me with a kind of single thought:
Modern American conservatism has hive-minded itself into this kind of weird and inescapable kayfabe where each individual participant is too afraid to see that all the other participants are faking it too, and so the suspension of disbelief gets more and more ridiculous and detached from reality. I guess that's what happens when your leader's true calling and probably greatest aptitude was in the professional wrestling ring.
*to be clear, this is a ridiculously silly assumption. Joe Biden has no fan boys. Nobody is passionate about Joe Biden. His name is Joe for ****'s sake.
**ish.
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Danoff
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The FJB mantra happened extremely early for his tenure as president. Just over half a year after the start of his presidency the whole "let's go brandon" thing took off as a surrogate for FJB, which dates earlier, but I'm not sure exactly how much earlier. Kamala Harris was similarly vilified prior to even taking office. "Say no to Joe and the Hoe" or somesuch was a slogan during the 2020 campaign.
Joe might have been vilified because of his activity during the Obama admin (not much in between) or things that occurred prior to the Obama administration. But honestly it's nearly impossible for the outrage to actually be based on much of anything. Looking back, the situation was similar with Hillary, and Obama and Bill for that matter. The outrage is just wildly disproportionate to what those politicians actually did. On the other side, I felt like the outrage over Bush Jr. was disproportional, but I do understand that there is more of a debate there. As far as Trump goes, the outrage is probably not even enough.
They're angry about... stuff... and they've been told to direct that anger at Joe Biden, so they have dutifully done so. A good portion of the anger is over stuff that happened during the Trump admin anyway, and they just pretend Joe did it.
The one big thing that I think a lot of anger can be linked specifically to Biden over is the vaccine mandate.
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McLaren
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Most likely, but the best outcome for the US is Pence winning the Republican nomination. Trump's old and shouting at the clouds, but would immediately go on a revenge spree in office. DeSantis is a moron who doesn't know what woke means, but is actually managing to get dangerous legislation passed in Florida.
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There's got to be some powers-that-be within the Republican party, and those that fund them, that would like to see a more traditional non-MAGA candidate offered up in opposition to tweedledumb and tweedledee. Surely at this point there has to be some 'never Democrat' voters who don't like Trump or DeSantis either. Like Biden was to the Democrats, Pence is a known quantity, if not especially popular.
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Joey D
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My parents are like this. They'll never vote Democrat, but they refuse to vote for Trump and they think DeSantis is an ass, especially since he's going after Disney which they own a bunch of stock in. They've said if it's either of those two, they just won't vote. But they basically dislike most Republicans who aren't Reagan reincarnated, even if they tolerate some of them.
Honestly, I wish John Kasich would've been better received in 2016. He was a pretty moderate Republican and I think would've fit the overall view of the country fairly well. But since our primary system is garbage, moderates rarely get the nod.
UKMikey
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This is quite possible but I only included the original comment as gallows humour.
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We need open primaries. I think it has helped California (which should be noted was the idea of moderate Republicans in the state, including the Governator) since it has been implemented here. It's not without issues, but it also doesn't guarantee megaphone blowhards from winning their party's nomination like the current closed primary system practically does. An open primary with ranked choice would probably provide the most democratic results. The other thing it does is that it gives everyone a seat at the same table...your preferred candidate might not win, but a Republican in a deeply blue district (or the opposite) has essentially no horse in the race with closed primaries. In an open primary with ranked choice, its plausible that a voter could rank a more palatable candidate from the party more likely to win the election as a second choice, even if it's not the party they support. Increasing enfranchisement is probably the key to bringing the temperature down around the country.
Imagine an open, ranked choice national primary of 5 candidates for US President. It features Biden, DeSantis, Christie, Pence, and Haley.
I'd probably sigh and vote for Biden again, but I would absolutely rank Christie 2nd to avoid the disaster of the other 3. I feel like it should almost be your patriotic duty to select both a progressive and a conservative candidate for president, as the character of the President matters as much as their political positions do, and voting for that half of the office has become pretty lost.
UKMikey
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deleted - moved to America thread
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UKMikey
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DeSantis campaign sheds staff amid cash crunch
Fewer than 10 staffers were let go Thursday, according to a person familiar with the campaign.
www.politico.com
Keef
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Anybody still supporting Trump is just doing the rest of us a favor - as if they hadn't already - by labelling themselves morally corrupt and untrustworthy. They purposely choose to break rules just for the fun of it, just to be a pain in the ass, and unlike some dumb kid they know perfectly well what they're doing and why. And it's not some isolated case like the annoying neighbor down the street, no, it's a nationwide organized movement to just be dickheads, cheaters, and cause other people constant minor annoyances. Kind of impressive honestly.
In my case these areas are almost all in the same county because the Dayton metro is relatively small, but in the cases of Dallas and Houston etc, they're often the next county over. And I'd argue that the people who want both good schools but also to be close enough to downtown or hip areas tend to be fairly liberal and vote blue. In my experience, the more conservative millennials tend to be interested in things like land and small towns which you won't find affordable until a couple counties out in places like Texas and Chicago. That's also where they'll find more country-aligned people who think like them but also well-funded schools. In Dayton this is only one county away and still only ~30 minutes from downtown, but in Dallas these people will almost never go to downtown and hang out in their country ass county instead.
Apparently I never responded to this. Based on my own experience, I'd wager that the vast majority of the people moving to the burbs are of the millennial generation, most of whom are now in our 30s or near 30, often couples newly married, with young kids, both needing and finally able to afford a bigger house and better schools. It's not white flight necessarily, it's just a necessity since these big cities still can't get their crap together on education after all these decades. Every single one of my friends with kids have this exact goal and not a single one of them are willing to move back into the city limits for a relatively affordable first-ring single-family house like myself. I can walk to all the best breweries and bars and restaurants and even distilleries here in Dayton but they don't care because their kids' education opportunities are vastly more important.
In my case these areas are almost all in the same county because the Dayton metro is relatively small, but in the cases of Dallas and Houston etc, they're often the next county over. And I'd argue that the people who want both good schools but also to be close enough to downtown or hip areas tend to be fairly liberal and vote blue. In my experience, the more conservative millennials tend to be interested in things like land and small towns which you won't find affordable until a couple counties out in places like Texas and Chicago. That's also where they'll find more country-aligned people who think like them but also well-funded schools. In Dayton this is only one county away and still only ~30 minutes from downtown, but in Dallas these people will almost never go to downtown and hang out in their country ass county instead.
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Joey D
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It does, it's called cocaine plugging. Rod Stewart famously used cocaine suppositories.
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