2024 US Presidential Election Thread

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TexRex
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The argument boils down to "We've spent so much on negative campaigning, so it's unfair that you're now replacing your candidate". I despise all the toxicity that comes with negative campaigning, especially with so many people on social media blindly parroting all the vile garbage the campaign teams and all the various news outlets put out. Had the Trump campaign laid their focus on emphasizing their own candidate's strengths rather than their opponent's weaknesses, they'd have much less to worry about now. Serves them right.
 
Baka_Marimo
The argument boils down to "We've spent so much on negative campaigning, so it's unfair that you're now replacing your candidate". I despise all the toxicity that comes with negative campaigning, especially with so many people on social media blindly parroting all the vile garbage the campaign teams and all the various news outlets put out. Had the Trump campaign laid their focus on emphasizing their own candidate's strengths rather than their opponent's weaknesses, they'd have much less to worry about now. Serves them right.
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Trump's greatest strength is that his followers have the IQ of a turnip which doesn't translate to a campaign ad very well.
 
These people are so infatuated with anything-Epstein that I think they want to sleep with him.
 
During the 2020 primary, Harris was in an awkward position of trying to be progressive but with a history of being a pretty aggressive DA in SF - going to the left didn't really suit her and it wasn't all that believable. During her time as VP, I think she had to basically walk the Biden line and basically be invisible. Maybe it's because I'm a perennial optimist, but perhaps we'll see a more natural version of Kamala now that she has the reigns and can fully lean into being the kind of moderate prosecutor that she was during her pre-VP career. I'm looking forward to seeing her debate Trump.

What about Romney as VP? That would be a head spinner.

It's interesting to see the GOP squirm here...makes them look nervous, which is kind of an own goal in itself. They certainly aren't projecting confidence...
 
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Eunos_Cosmo
During the 2020 primary, Harris was in an awkward position of trying to be progressive but with a history of being a pretty aggressive DA in SF - going to the left didn't really suit her and it wasn't all that believable. During her time as VP, I think she had to basically walk the Biden line and basically be invisible. Maybe it's because I'm a perennial optimist, but perhaps we'll see a more natural version of Kamala now that she has the reigns and can fully lean into being the kind of moderate prosecutor that she was during her pre-VP career. I'm looking forward to seeing her debate Trump.
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Good luck with that. Vance wouldn't debate her as VP and Trump is already making excuses to not debate her, either. He knows she has the capability to call him out on his policies.
Eunos_Cosmo
What about Romney as VP? That would be a head spinner.
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I don't think nominating any Republican is the play there. MAGA will continue to attack him as a "RINO", whilst I think Dem voters don't want anything that promotes a Republican, either.

Romney has said earlier this year he is hoping the Republican Party will return back to pre-Trump, and wants to influence that. He's also said Biden should've pardoned Trump just because it would make him look good even though Trump & his cult wouldn't care.
 
McLaren
Good luck with that. Vance wouldn't debate her as VP and Trump is already making excuses to not debate her, either. He knows she has the capability to call him out on his policies.

I don't think nominating any Republican is the play there. MAGA will continue to attack him as a "RINO", whilst I think Dem voters don't want anything that promotes a Republican, either.

Romney has said earlier this year he is hoping the Republican Party will return back to pre-Trump, and wants to influence that. He's also said Biden should've pardoned Trump just because it would make him look good even though Trump & his cult wouldn't care.
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I'm trying to see the big picture here. Nobody is going to dissuade MAGA voters from turning out or voting for Trump. He will have sky-high turnout of the faithful. The opposition ticket needs to get as many opposition votes as possible, which will be a mix of progressives, liberals, moderates, and disillusioned republicans (which based on Haley's performance in the primary after she dropped out, is substantial). The election is MAGA vs everyone else. What I'm getting at is that Romeny being a "RINO" isn't going to hurt him with the voters who are circumspect or critical of MAGA...they are themselves "RINO" and probably feel pretty left behind by...everyone. The coalition I described is bigger than MAGA, but not nearly as cohesive, so it will be difficult to manage. Harris needs to find a way to get the moderates into the fold and not let the progressives sit at home, and I think she should be coalition building and loudly warning about the danger Trump represents.
 
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Eunos_Cosmo
I'm trying to see the big picture here. Nobody is going to dissuade MAGA voters from turning out or voting for Trump. He will have sky-high turnout of the faithful. The opposition ticket needs to get as many opposition votes as possible, which will be a mix of progressives, liberals, moderates, and disillusioned republicans (which based on Haley's performance in the primary after she dropped out, is substantial). The election is MAGA vs everyone else. What I'm getting at is that Romeny being a "RINO" isn't going to hurt him with the voters who are circumspect or critical of MAGA...they are themselves "RINO" and probably feel pretty left behind by...everyone. The coalition I described is bigger than MAGA, but not nearly as cohesive, so it will be difficult to manage. Harris needs to find a way to get the moderates into the fold and not let the progressives sit at home, and I think she should be coalition building and loudly warning about the danger Trump represents.
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There are a lot of MAGA voters that are, as you say "disillusioned". Some of them were going to come out because the right wing media circus has been spitting so much poison about Biden over the last 4 years that they were really motivated to vote against Biden - despite having real reservations about Trump.

Honestly the longer it takes to come up with a democratic candidate the better. Those people need to stay home. The media is chomping at the bit to attack whoever emerges.
 
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Joey D
Wouldn't Manchin lock up the moderate vote though? Dud's about as moderate as Democrats come and could sway anti-Trump Republicans too.
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Machin is a solid pick, and probably easier to sell to the electorate. If a Harris/Manchin ticket could get a Romney and/or Haley endorsement (unlikely, I know) it would be very strong, IMO.

Danoff
There are a lot of MAGA voters that are, as you say "disillusioned". Some of them were going to come out because the right wing media circus has been spitting so much poison about Biden over the last 4 years that they were really motivated to vote against Biden - despite having real reservations about Trump.

Honestly the longer it takes to come up with an opposing candidate the better. Those people need to stay home.
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I'm using MAGA as shorthand for Trump faithful. By that characterization, they aren't disillusioned and are very motivated, IMO. They just aren't that big of a group compared to everyone else. I walked around my neighborhood the other day in 'tie-dye was invented here, we have how many Zen centers?' Marin County and counted 4 houses with Trump flags raised. Proportionally not a lot, but these people are turning out for sure.
 
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Eunos_Cosmo
Machin is a solid pick, and probably easier to sell to the electorate. If a Harris/Manchin ticket could get a Romney and/or Haley endorsement (unlikely, I know) it would be very strong, IMO.
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Manchin would play well with the right wing but mostly I think it would sacrifice the left too much for the sake of voters that don't care or won't be swayed.
 
Manchin betrayed the whole Democratic party to kill Build Back Better. Progressives hate him.

I don't think Dems generally succeed when they try to move right to appeal to centrists or anti-MAGA conservatives. It just sacrifices turnout among the actual left just to fight over votes that more often than not go to republicans anyway.

Give us candidates we actually want to vote for, who support policies that are actually popular. There's a whole block of progressives who feel neither major party is representing them in this race. They're not voting for Trump, but unless you give them something, they won't vote for a half-hearted Dem ticket either. Many will either sit out or vote third party. Some will be scared enough to vote "lesser of two evils" but that's not enough to get the turnout required to win.
 
Eunos_Cosmo
I'm trying to see the big picture here. Nobody is going to dissuade MAGA voters from turning out or voting for Trump. He will have sky-high turnout of the faithful. The opposition ticket needs to get as many opposition votes as possible, which will be a mix of progressives, liberals, moderates, and disillusioned republicans (which based on Haley's performance in the primary after she dropped out, is substantial). The election is MAGA vs everyone else. What I'm getting at is that Romeny being a "RINO" isn't going to hurt him with the voters who are circumspect or critical of MAGA...they are themselves "RINO" and probably feel pretty left behind by...everyone. The coalition I described is bigger than MAGA, but not nearly as cohesive, so it will be difficult to manage. Harris needs to find a way to get the moderates into the fold and not let the progressives sit at home, and I think she should be coalition building and loudly warning about the danger Trump represents.
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Which is why many think Shapiro/Kelly would play better. Shapiro reportedly polls very well in Pennsylvania, even with its Trump followers.

My thing with Romney is, it's clear he still wants to be a Republican. Him accepting a VP is fine enough if the idea is to siphon Trump votes, but once Trump is gone, he'll go back to the Republican Party. And I think Republicans will hold him accepting VP to a Dem President against him. I don't think he wants that & it looks like he'll just do what he did last time by writing in someone else for President. He's anti-Trump, but not to the point he'll vote for Dems, either.
Joey D
Wouldn't Manchin lock up the moderate vote though? Dude's about as moderate as Democrats come and could sway anti-Trump Republicans too.
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Eunos_Cosmo
Machin is a solid pick, and probably easier to sell to the electorate. If a Harris/Manchin ticket could get a Romney and/or Haley endorsement (unlikely, I know) it would be very strong, IMO.
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Manchin is indicating he wants to be the actual nominee for the President. He won't accept VP & the Dems aren't going to nominate him for either position, anyway. As @dylansan has just pointed out, he has no more standing in the party. The simple fact he is "pro-life" and voted against abortion bills in a time when abortion is a major political topic is enough to invalidate him as a VP candidate. He also stands with Republicans on climate issues.

The guy's history of being repeatedly courted by Republicans & even Trump saying Manchin should be welcomed into the party, is enough of a sign that he'd be an awful pick & probably turn away voters. I don't know if it's for certain, but the fact Manchin has said he's not running for re-election this year makes me think he realized he's no longer going to have the same Dem voting base that got him into office.
Blitz24
Neither is Sanders.
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Sanders has favor within' the party, though. He's still respected unlike Manchin.
 
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dylansan
Manchin betrayed the whole Democratic party to kill Build Back Better. Progressives hate him.

I don't think Dems generally succeed when they try to move right to appeal to centrists or anti-MAGA conservatives. It just sacrifices turnout among the actual left just to fight over votes that more often than not go to republicans anyway.

Give us candidates we actually want to vote for, who support policies that are actually popular. There's a whole block of progressives who feel neither major party is representing them in this race. They're not voting for Trump, but unless you give them something, they won't vote for a half-hearted Dem ticket either. Many will either sit out or vote third party. Some will be scared enough to vote "lesser of two evils" but that's not enough to get the turnout required to win.
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I don't even know what's what anymore. Who are these progressives you talk about? Like Berkeley/Brooklyn baristas or blue collar union workers? Because the former probably don't matter and the latter seem to be aligning themselves to the right more and more because of identity politics even if its against their own self interest. I think the truth is that huge swathes of progressive voters simply don't matter and are not worth pursuing because they are concentrated in deeply blue states that aren't in play to begin with, like CA, NY, MA, IL, WA, OR or in deep blue cities within red states that are also not in play, like Austin, Dallas, Houston, Miami, New Orleans, etc. The winner-takes-all system produces distorted results.
 
McLaren
Manchin is indicating he wants to be the actual nominee for the President. He won't accept VP & the Dems aren't going to nominate him for either position, anyway.
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As of a few hours ago, Manchin is not running for any position.

apnews.com

West Virginia Sen. Joe Manchin announces he won't run for president in 2024

West Virginia Sen. Joe Manchin says he is not running for president. Manchin announced his decision in a speech Friday at West Virginia University, saying he didn't want to be a “spoiler.”
apnews.com apnews.com
 
Eunos_Cosmo
I don't even know what's what anymore. Who are these progressives you talk about? Like Berkeley/Brooklyn baristas or blue collar union workers? Because the former probably don't matter and the latter seem to be aligning themselves to the right more and more because of identity politics even if its against their own self interest. I think the truth is that huge swathes of progressive voters simply don't matter and are not worth pursuing because they are concentrated in deeply blue states that aren't in play to begin with, like CA, NY, MA, IL, WA, OR or in deep blue cities within red states that are also not in play, like Austin, Dallas, Houston, Miami, New Orleans, etc. The winner-takes-all system produces distorted results.
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I view it more as a best defense is a good offense strategy. A safe or calculated pick that is designed to calm down right wingers is not going to do anything but play into the hands of republicans, for whom it is never enough. The democrats need a unifying candidate that can energize all of the people left out by Trumpism (which is a lot).
 
dylansan
As of a few hours ago, Manchin is not running for any position.

apnews.com

West Virginia Sen. Joe Manchin announces he won't run for president in 2024

West Virginia Sen. Joe Manchin says he is not running for president. Manchin announced his decision in a speech Friday at West Virginia University, saying he didn't want to be a “spoiler.”
apnews.com apnews.com
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Ah, it's for the best, then. I definitely remember even Fox News running an article that he was considering re-registering as a Dem. to seek nomination.

But, this article seems to answer all our theories.
Well, that was fast. Sen. Joe Manchin’s (I-W.Va.) brief flirtation with a bid for the Democratic nomination for president ended between two cable news interviews Monday morning.
“I am not running for office,” Manchin told “CBS Mornings” Gayle King. About an hour earlier on CNN “This Morning,” he told host Kasie Hunt “people are pushing in that direction” when asked if he was seeking the nomination.
Manchin was adamant about an open nominating process in both interviews, citing former President Barack Obama and former Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s similar wishes. On CBS, he said Vice President Kamala Harris is “absolutely” too far left.
“My main thing is that we have a voice. I want the middle to have a voice,” he said on CNN. “We're not extreme left, we’re not extreme right. I don't run my life that way. Why do I have to only have two choices of a party?”
In May, Manchin left the Democratic Party and became an independent. He said at the time he decided to change his affiliation because of his "commitment to do everything I can to bring our country together."
He was also quick to reject a possible spot on the ticket as vice president. “Trust me, it’s not me,” he said on CBS.
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