Vaccinations thread.

  • Thread starter Dennisch
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Imari
That 65 million to 1 is actually a composite of two probabilities, that for vaccinated people and that for unvaccinated people. Both have the same chance of encountering an infection (very low in a highly vaccinated country like the UK), but if they do then the chance of death is way higher for the unvaccinated people.

You should keep in mind as well that your 65 million to one is over a period of six months. Over a period of 80 years, that's more like a 850,000:1 chance. That's still sort of passable I suppose, but it's pretty scary when you think that it's a composite of a high risk group and a low risk group.
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No matter how you slice it, if I'm an anti-vaxxer (sp?) I see 1:65,000,000. Those seem like very good odds to me. Literally every single other way of dying presents a higher risk, like walking down the sidewalk, crossing the street or going into a mall or subway.
 
Johnnypenso
No matter how you slice it, if I'm an anti-vaxxer (sp?) I see 1:65,000,000.
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I'm not totally sure that an anti-vaxxer would be happy taking the numbers from an immunised population. The odds are 1 in 63,000,000 in a population with 90%+ acquired immunity.

Measles has a 90% infection rate amongst a non-immunised population. From 100 people, 10 will be unaffected, 80 will contract and survive measles, 10 will require hospital treatment and 3 of those will have life-changing after effects. Death rates are roughly 3 in 1,000 - though the Welsh outbreak in 2013 was a third of that.

So without immunisation the rates are:
Infection: 90%
Hospitalisation: 10%
Life changing effects: 3%
Death: 0.1%

With immunisation the rates are:
Infection: 0.00002%
Hospitalisation: 1x10^-6%
Life changing effects: 1x10^-7%
Death: 0.6x10^-8%

It's not exactly a poster child for steering clear of the vaccine.
 
http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/ISBN=0471148482/roberttoddcarrolA/

From The New England Journal of Medicine
This book, written entirely by academic psychologists, is a dose of strong medicine. A critical review of the psychoactive-drug literature, it asserts essentially that there is inadequate scientific information to conclude that psychoactive drugs are substantially more effective than placebos. The editors remind us that the interpretation of any research data is likely to reflect the researcher's bias: in this case, a bias toward biologic treatment, the pharmaceutical industry's financial motives, or both.
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This is what I said "Explain to me why you can't buy a placebo pill, even if they are as effective as mainstream medications."

Does this say that placebos are more effective, less effective or the same a mainstream medication ? Obviously they are not all as good as mainstream medicine. I believe placebos work as well as some tablets. Of course, some drugs are enhanced by the placebo effect.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/health/a...improve-recovery-time-sleep-quality-life.html

So doctors are prescribing £61 million on drugs that don't work better than something that's free (on the face of it, there is a hidden cost in placebos, they are not free).

http://www.wired.com/2009/08/ff-placebo-effect/

A stem-cell startup called Osiris Therapeutics got a drubbing on Wall Street in March, when it suspended trials of its pill for Crohn's disease, an intestinal ailment, citing an "unusually high" response to placebo. Two days later, Eli Lilly broke off testing of a much-touted new drug for schizophrenia when volunteers showed double the expected level of placebo response.

I certainly hope you study the clinical trials of all the drugs you take, as well as you study my writing, to make sure that everything is above board.

If placebos are getting to be twice as strong as they used to be, may I suggest that a number of drugs may now be worse than the placebo effect, since they were tested when placebos weren't quite so strong :lol:.
 
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Johnnypenso
No matter how you slice it, if I'm an anti-vaxxer (sp?) I see 1:65,000,000. Those seem like very good odds to me.
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Then so be it. If an anti-vaxxer thinks that that's a valid way of using statistics even after it's been explained how it's wrong, then there's not much that can be done.

I've already ripped into x3ra in this thread for poor math, this is just more of the same. It would seem fairly fundamental to the anti-vaxxer philosophy that they not accurately assess the risks and benefits of a vaccine, because in many cases it's far too clear cut.

Ironically, there are cases where it doesn't make sense to give a vaccine, like with the aforementioned case of adult TB. In such cases, it's not given because it would be an unacceptable risk for limited benefits. But that medical professionals do actually assess whether vaccines are helpful or not doesn't suit the anti-vaxxer story.

Literally every single other way of dying presents a higher risk, like walking down the sidewalk, crossing the street or going into a mall or subway.
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Yes, well, that's what happens when you misuse statistics. I mean, they might as well be making up numbers at that point.

I seem to recall pointing out in the terrorism thread that you have a higher chance of dying by falling off a chair in Australia than in a terrorism attack, even if all the foiled attacks had been wildly successful. But that doesn't stop people from thinking that terrorism is one of the greatest and most deadly threats of the modern age.

Stupid people will be stupid, and there's very little you can do to help them at that point.

x3ra
This is what I said "Explain to me why you can't buy a placebo pill, even if they are as effective as mainstream medications."
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I'll say it again. You can buy a placebo pill, and doctors routinely prescribe them.

Does this say that placebos are more effective, less effective or the same a mainstream medication ? Obviously they are not all as good as mainstream medicine. I believe placebos work as well as some tablets. Of course, some drugs are enhanced by the placebo effect.
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Mate, you're just making it startlingly obvious that you have no idea what you're talking about.

I certainly hope you study the clinical trials of all the drugs you take, as well as you study my writing, to make sure that everything is above board.
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I read up on drugs that I take whenever possible. I avoid taking anything that I don't need.

I wouldn't use your opinions of anything that I take, as they appear to be warped. That, and your "understanding" of medical science appears to be well below my own and that of people close to me. I prefer to trust my doctor, who has years of eduction and experience, and has demonstrated that he has my wellbeing as his priority. If I need a second opinion, I have friends who work in medical research who can at least steer me in the right direction.

If placebos are getting to be twice as strong as they used to be, may I suggest that a number of drugs may now be worse than the placebo effect, since they were tested when placebos weren't quite so strong :lol:.
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Startlingly obvious.
 
x3ra
This is what I said "Explain to me why you can't buy a placebo pill, even if they are as effective as mainstream medications."
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This isn't about mainstream medicine. This is about vaccines. The report that you quoted is about psychoactive drugs, which are not vaccines. You have gone from trying to claim that the use of vaccines is questionable because of the FDA's response to an artificial sweetener, to trying to claim that placebos should be widely available for a variety of treatments because of one report questioning the use of psychoactive drugs - and what's more, you based it off an Amazon resder review of the book rather than the content.

Seriously, do you put any thought into what you post, or do you just type the first thing that comes to mind?
 
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/magazine-34572482

Tell me anything I've said that disagrees with what this shows. Before you go all high and mighty again.

Tests reveal that some well-known drugs for depression and anxiety would struggle to pass their clinical trials if they were re-tested in 2015.
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This trend has become a huge concern for the pharmaceutical industry. A slew of drugs have flopped at these final clinical trials, by which time drugs companies have typically spent more than $1bn in research and development.
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Which particular aspect of placebos am I not getting? Someone thinks they are getting real drug, but only get a saline solution(for example), they get better. This is due to the placebo effect. So what have you really got a problem with?

I'll not hold my breath for an apology.
 
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x3ra
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/magazine-34572482

Tell me anything I've said that disagrees with what this shows. Before you go all high and mighty again.
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Did you read it yourself? Placebo effects are getting stronger, particularly in the US. The article actually goes on to explain a couple of good theories covering the idea.

x3ra
Which particular aspect of placebos am I not getting?
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The aspect of them in which they don't work as vaccines?
 
TenEightyOne
Did you read it yourself? Placebo effects are getting stronger, particularly in the US. The article actually goes on to explain a couple of good theories covering the idea.
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Of course I read it. I'm actually a huge fan of the placebo effect. Most people are victims of the nocebo effect.

The aspect of them in which they don't work as vaccines?
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Ah-so! They don't. If the impression I gave you was that, that was what I believed, then I'm glad I pursued you to tell me.

This is the paragraph in question ""Placebos, I get a vaccine and I feel ill because I think it's going to make me ill, or vice versa. It's not rocket science, medical science maybe. Explain to me why you can't buy a placebo pill, even if they are as effective as mainstream medications."

Notice the first sentence - Replace vaccine with pill, and I think you will understand my ramblings better.

My question asking why you can't buy a placebo, was outdated, last time I heard they weren't prescribed legally. And I thought they ought to be.

x3ra said
I believe placebos work as well as some tablets.
teneightyone said
Woooaaahhh.... what do you think a placebo is?


Yes, a placebo can be a tablet(pill). What I should have said is that I believe some placebos work better than mainstream medicine.

http://www.theguardian.com/science/2010/dec/22/placebo-effect-patients-sham-drug

"Patients taking the placebo also doubled their average rate of improvement to that achieved with the most powerful IBS medications."

And onto vaccines. But not tonight.
 
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x3ra
Yes, a placebo can be a tablet(pill). What I should have said is that I believe some placebos work better than mainstream medicine.

http://www.theguardian.com/science/2010/dec/22/placebo-effect-patients-sham-drug

"Patients taking the placebo also doubled their average rate of improvement to that achieved with the most powerful IBS medications."
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It looks like the Guardian drew the wrong conclusion from the research article they quoted. But I can understand their confusion. During the study the patients were allowed to continue IBS medications, but throughout the research article they talk about treatment and no treatment. What they mean is no placebo treatment and open placebo treatment. Nowhere, that I could find, are they comparing the placebo effect with normal medication. I think the Guardian missed the part that patients were allowed to continue their IBS medications.
 
x3ra
The PTB have been doing that for years, it seems to be the best way to get what you want.
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I suppose that all's fair so long as you get what you want. Even if it means endangering the lives of other children with your selfishness.

[/sarcasm]
 
Scaff
Anti-Vax and Anti-GMO, well that's not a surprise at all.
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No. No surprise to me either. Since they can't be proven to my satisfaction that they are all safe.

prisonermonkeys
I suppose that all's fair so long as you get what you want. Even if it means endangering the lives of other children with your selfishness.

[/sarcasm]
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Capitalism runs on selfishness. And we live in a capitalist society.

TenEightyOne
Oh. My. God. That's actually incredible - there's clearly a link to the 2012 GM mosquitoes and the later discovery of Zika in 1947.

1947 is more recent than 2012, right? Maths is teh confuse.
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I never said any such thing. I didn't say that Zika was discovered in 2012. I was wondering how the outbreak started.

And yes it is a tenuous link.

This may be less tenuous.

Two: The TdaP vaccine:

A study posted in the US National Library of Medicine, “Pertussis in young infants: a severe vaccine-preventable disease,” spells it out:

“…in late 2014, the [Brazilian] Ministry of Health announced the introduction of the Tdap vaccine for all pregnant women in Brazil.”

Barbara Loe Fisher, of the National Vaccine Information Center, writes:

“Drug companies did not test the safety and effectiveness of giving influenza or Tdap vaccine to pregnant women before the vaccines were licensed in the U.S and there is almost no data on inflammatory or other biological responses to these vaccines that could affect pregnancy and birth outcomes…The Food and Drug Administration (FDA) lists influenza and Tdap vaccines as either Pregnancy Category B or C biologicals which means that adequate testing has not been done in humans to demonstrate safety for pregnant women and it is not known whether the vaccines can cause fetal harm or affect reproduction capacity. The manufacturers of influenza and Tdap vaccines state that human toxicity and fertility studies are inadequate and warn that the influenza and Tdap vaccines should ‘be given to a pregnant woman only if clearly needed.’”


Defend your corner all you want, but why would you want to?

It's quite obvious that someone in this case, does not follow the guidelines.
 
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x3ra
Barbara Loe Fisher, of the National Vaccine Information Center, writes:

“Drug companies did not test the safety and effectiveness of giving influenza or Tdap vaccine to pregnant women before the vaccines were licensed in the U.S and there is almost no data on inflammatory or other biological responses to these vaccines that could affect pregnancy and birth outcomes…The Food and Drug Administration (FDA) lists influenza and Tdap vaccines as either Pregnancy Category B or C biologicals which means that adequate testing has not been done in humans to demonstrate safety for pregnant women and it is not known whether the vaccines can cause fetal harm or affect reproduction capacity. The manufacturers of influenza and Tdap vaccines state that human toxicity and fertility studies are inadequate and warn that the influenza and Tdap vaccines should ‘be given to a pregnant woman only if clearly needed.’”


Defend your corner all you want, but why would you want to?
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No defence of a corner - I'm open to sensible, objective evidence at any time. "The National Vaccine Information Center" appears, from your link, to fund itself via anti-vaxxer scare stories and adverts for no-win-no-fee cases. They offer no sources or research to back up their claims. Strange, right?

Fortunately I have a source , it turns out that the document they refer to is from GSK's own clinical trial. That document was produced early in the vaccines life and subsequent research does exist into the safety of the vaccine's administration during pregnancy.

x3ra
“…in late 2014, the [Brazilian] Ministry of Health announced the introduction of the Tdap vaccine for all pregnant women in Brazil
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Correlation is clearly not causation in this case, however selectively you mined your quote. Let's try again;

x3ra
“…in late 2014, the [Brazilian] Ministry of Health announced the introduction of the Tdap vaccine for all pregnant women in Brazil, ...Argentina, Uruguay, Costa Rica, Mexico, Panama, Israel, New Zealand, and Belgium—among other countries—also implemented maternal vaccination programs for pertussis during pregnancy, following the examples from the US and the UK
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Fixed that for you. Why would you have to do that with your quote if you're not trying to press a point that's far from evident?
 
x3ra
No. No surprise to me either. Since they can't be proven to my satisfaction that they are all safe.
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You do know that you have spent your entire life eating food that has been modified on a genetic level, even all the 'organic' stuff?
 
x3ra
Capitalism runs on selfishness. And we live in a capitalist society.
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Please point to the parts of capitalist theory that say it is okay to endanger somebody else's children.
 
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prisonermonkeys
Please point to the parts of capitalist theory that say it is okay to endanger somebody else's children.

If you can't, shut up.
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Please point to the theory that says you must force inject chemicals into your child's bloodstream in a free society. And isn't the danger with those that don't get vaccinated?
 
TenEightyOne
In the case of MMR somebody who isn't vaccinated is far more likely to catch, for example, measles. This proliferation of measles forms a huge risk to children who have not yet been vaccinated as they are too young. So no, the danger isn't only with those who don't get vaccinated.
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As I understand it, the biggest risks are posed by travellers or immigrants from foreign countries. Rather than trying to coerce people to inject their children with chemicals against their will through punitive government policy , why not focus efforts on the majority root causes behind current infections? If you're going to go down the route of coercion, why not make it a requirement to be vaccinated for travelling overseas to countries that do not have widespread vaccination programs. It seems kind of pointless to allow unvaccinated people to travel overseas and bring the disease back, then force the natives at virtual gunpoint to be vaccinated, when you could just deal with the problem more directly.

I'm all for vaccinations, but I have a real problem with government forced injections of children with a slew of chemicals for preventative reasons regardless of how safe they may be. I also have a fundamental objection to holding people hostage to government benefits if you don't vaccinate. We don't force parents to stop feeding their kids and turning them into blimps or force parents to send their kids outside to play instead of sitting in front of the telly all day and night, I don't see why we should be withdrawing government services because parents refuse to inject their children either. You're not too bright if you don't vaccinate your kids, but there are no laws against not being bright either.

Source
Measles is an acute viral disease that may have serious complications. Measles infection used to be very common in childhood. Due to immunisation, measles has been rare in Australia for many years. The measles cases that are now detected in Australia are usually either travelers who were infected overseas or people infected within Australia by travelers.
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I'm pleased for Australia, let's hope the anti-vaxxers don't force them back a step from the 2014 WHO announcement of total eradication. Measles still kills 150,000 a year worldwide though and, with a 90% transmission rate, it's hard to see the logic of those who won't immunise.
 

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