Brexit - The UK leaves the EU

[Famine]

How can anything come of it, the negotiations are over and Europe has dismantled its negotiation team? There is nothing to negotiate.

The letter is sensational. He wants a WTO brexit, which is of course doing nothing until October and letting it happen by default. However he also wants to negotiate.

The terms of withdrawal are agreed - we either withdraw with the deal the EU and the UK has agreed (pending it passing parliament; all the other votes on changes to the deal were meaningless as the EU will not change the deal - nor should it) or without a deal.

However, "the deal" is only a basic framework for withdrawal. If we withdraw with the deal, there's a transition period (during which we still pay for it and follow the rules, but don't get any say in it) and about another two years of negotiations to determine the finer points of what will actually happen to the EU-UK relationship after we've left.

 

[Touring Mars]

The Conservative Party leadership contest should become a little bit clearer today as the deadline passes for would-be leaders to register their candidacy and to have secured the backing of at least 8 MPs... that will immediately see off the lesser candidates and narrow the field to approx. 6 candidates.

The two leading candidates are still Johnson and Gove, but Gove has had a terrible week after revelations of his past cocaine use were made public - as a result, Jeremy Hunt has gained support from people that may have otherwise backed Gove. Frankly, it is hard to see how Gove can continue.

 

[Hun200kmh]

Discussing with British friends the newest episodes of this jaw-dropping reality show the UK's political class are playing for all to see and when discussing Gove's chances after last week's revelations one of them replied this (with the conclusion that his chances are none)

The level of Gove's hypocrisy can only be truly understood when you remember it was he that brought in the rule that teachers should be banned for life for a single class A drugs offence.

 

[Famine]

The Conservative Party leadership contest should become a little bit clearer today as the deadline passes for would-be leaders to register their candidacy and to have secured the backing of at least 8 MPs... that will immediately see off the lesser candidates and narrow the field to approx. 6 candidates.

The two leading candidates are still Johnson and Gove, but Gove has had a terrible week after revelations of his past cocaine use were made public - as a result, Jeremy Hunt has gained support from people that may have otherwise backed Gove. Frankly, it is hard to see how Gove can continue.

I did think it was interesting waaaay back in June 2016 when Gove shanked Johnson, and everyone was gloating about how Boris had been outmanoeuvred by a glove puppet... when it seemed more like Gove's ambition for the top job had simply made him play his cards too early while Boris was waiting for a better opportunity. A better opportunity like taking the job after the nightmare had ended rather than in the middle of it, and leading the party up from its lowest possible ebb...

 

[Daz555]

We do not need them, we give them money to tell us what we can and cant do, we let them dictate that others can fish in our waters then sell our own fish back to us.

English and Welsh fishing quotas have been swallowed up (sold for short term profit) by a handful of fishing giants. As is the norm these days these companies, whilst British/English in name are often owned by giant overseas companies (Spanish companies are the biggest owners of British fishing giants).

None of this is the EUs fault and the situation of UK quotas being swallowed up by a small number of giants and then those giants selling out to foreign investors would still be the case if we were outside the EU. Brussels shares some of the blame but it is primarily the fault of generations of UK Governments not adhering to the principles laid down in the EU Common Fisheries Policy. It is the UK Government that has allowed 97% of English and Welsh quotas to be swallowed up by a handful of giants. But then what do we expect from senior British politicians? Profits for their mates in big business is always their top priority.

Brexit will not change this one bit. It will be exactly the same as it is today.

Also I have no idea why Brexiteers bang on about Fishing so much. It accounts for less than 0.1% of the UK economy.

Meanwhile the sector I work within (Financial Services - I'm not in finance myself though) pays close to 10% of the nation's tax bill and contributes 7.5% of GDP. It employs over 7% of the nation's workforce (2.1m people). That workforce contributes 50% more to the economy than the average worker with 2 thirds of that contribution coming from outside London. There are 21 cities in the UK have have at least 10,000 people working in the sector.

It is currently haemorrhaging money overseas as the industry prepares and offsets the risk of a potential no-deal Brexit. We have already seen £1 trillion in assets and funds (a low estimate) being lost to the EU and other nations outside the EU since the real prospect of a no-deal Brexit arose. The company I work for is moving close to £160bn of business to the EU - they are holding off for now but the project to complete this work is already started.

Fishing? It's just a red herring.

Discussing with British friends the newest episodes of this jaw-dropping reality show the UK's political class are playing for all to see and when discussing Gove's chances after last week's revelations one of them replied this (with the conclusion that his chances are none)

The level of Gove's hypocrisy can only be truly understood when you remember it was he that brought in the rule that teachers should be banned for life for a single class A drugs offence.

Yes, utterly staggering levels of hypocrisy.

 

[TenEightyOne]

Also I have no idea why Brexiteers bang on about Fishing so much. It accounts for less than 0.1% of the UK economy.

It's still £1.5 billion of business, 25,000 people in primary jobs followed by those in support industries. Perhaps it's a little nostalgic to add that we've always been a nation built around sea and water industries, fishing is one of those properly British industries/traditions that we should seek to protect.

Real British people living real lives who need real incomes. You can't just write off that many people because they don't form a large enough percentage compared to City financiers.

 

[Daz555]

It's still £1.5 billion of business, 25,000 people in primary jobs followed by those in support industries. Perhaps it's a little nostalgic to add that we've always been a nation built around sea and water industries, fishing is one of those properly British industries/traditions that we should seek to protect.

Real British people living real lives who need real incomes. You can't just write off that many people because they don't form a large enough percentage compared to City financiers.

I didn't write them off. Just don't get why it is important in the Brexit debate given its relative insignificance to other sectors.

Also there is no evidence a no-deal Brexit will help the fishing industry at all. It's all just spin, lies and as I said, fishing is a Brexit red herring to distract from really critical issues.

 

[Robin]

The UK has signed a post Brexit trade deal with South Korea that at the very least maintains the trade we do with them going forward. We export 6bn worth of goods to them and import 4bn.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-48577667

 

[TenEightyOne]

The UK has signed a post Brexit trade deal with South Korea that at the very least maintains the trade we do with them going forward. We export 6bn worth of goods to them and import 4bn.

That's pretty grim reading, we've only got a deal for 1% of our export business? Of course that percentage will rise as 45% of our physical exports (cars) dwindles to virtually nothing over the next two years. It's not making for happy reading, what have we done!?

 

[MatskiMonk]

1 down, 294 to go... then there's the other non-trade-agreements...

From the FT, 2 years ago...

Edit:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-47213842

Just following links on the beeb and there are a few more. I notice we've sorted things with Colombia... so Gove's all sorted.

 

[HenrySwanson]

The level of Gove's hypocrisy can only be truly understood when you remember it was he that brought in the rule that teachers should be banned for life for a single class A drugs offence

To be fair his team have put this out in The Times:

Mr Gove said that he did not believe that he was the one who had brought in the changes, which were overseen by the teaching quango, the National College for Teaching and Leadership. His campaign claimed afterwards that prohibitions on teachers for drug use and possession were in place before he became education secretary.

But yeah, he did still write a piece in The Times at the same time as using drugs so he's definitely a hypocrite

 

[Dennisch]

what have we done!?

You took back control of your country!

 

[TenEightyOne]

You took back control of your country!

We already had it!

Many of the things we were told we can do after Brexit were things we could have done anyway, the main difference is that we go from being part of a huge trade body to being an island that's part of none, and that instead of two elected levels of legal governance we have one elected and one hereditary/gifted.

We lost control to those who stand to make the most from their own control.

 

[PzR Slim]

what have we done!?

Blue Passports?

 

[baldgye]

Blue Passports?

Nah we could have had blue passports within the EU if we wanted.

 

[TenEightyOne]

Blue Passports?

Nah we could have had blue passports within the EU if we wanted.

That's correct, we could have had blue passports at any time we chose. The British Government chose to go with the standard purple.

 

[MatskiMonk]

I'm looking forward to getting my new high quality, French made, blue passport in the coming months. Far better than the current crappy one made up north (in a Leave constituency no less). I'm sure our governments decision to get them made by a French-Dutch company in order to save £140,000,000 will result in lower renewal fees too*

*it won't.

 

[PzR Slim]

Nah we could have had blue passports within the EU if we wanted.

That's correct, we could have had blue passports at any time we chose. The British Government chose to go with the standard purple.

Yes, yes but that doesn’t fit the narrative of Johnny Foreigner not letting us do what we want. Plus with our Blue Passports we’ll be able to rule the waves again with the thousands of ships we’ll be able to build when all the shipyards are open again.

 

[Dave A]

Yes, yes but that doesn’t fit the narrative of Johnny Foreigner not letting us do what we want. Plus with our Blue Passports we’ll be able to rule the waves again with the thousands of ships we’ll be able to build when all the shipyards are open again.

I got a new passport last week, it was red. How do they expect me to conquer foreign nations with a red passport. Pah.

 

[TenEightyOne]

I got a new passport last week, it was red. How do they expect me to conquer foreign nations with a red passport. Pah.

With the navy, duh.

 

[Hun200kmh]

Indeed, time to forget Trevor and morph into "Nelson Fan for Life"

 

[Robin]

The cross party move to allow MP's to block no deal has been defeated, the vote went in favour of the government and they no longer are able to put the bill through. Not that it would have mattered because circumventing parliament to carry out no deal is not illegal and probably would happen anyway if nothing significant changes regarding a deal.

 

[Hun200kmh]

Oh boy Halloween this year won't need Jamie Lee Curtis to be exciting!

 

[baldgye]

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-no-deal-boris-johnson-medicine-supply-drug-stockpile-nhs-a8955021.html


But don't worry chaps, our new PM Bojo will see to it the poor are ****ed and the rich stay safe!

 

[Touring Mars]

The cross party move to allow MP's to block no deal has been defeated, the vote went in favour of the government and they no longer are able to put the bill through. Not that it would have mattered because circumventing parliament to carry out no deal is not illegal and probably would happen anyway if nothing significant changes regarding a deal.

Yes, quite an important result for the government, and it passed by a surprisingly large (albeit only 11) majority, given how some recent/similar votes went.

Not sure that it makes a huge amount of difference just yet - Jeremy Corbyn said something like "You won't be laughing in September", meaning that there will probably be other attempts to stop No Deal from happening when Parliament comes back after the summer break.

It seems kind of crazy that MPs will be off for around 6 weeks, and only come back in September with about 8 weeks before the next Brexit deadline date.

Personally, I can't see Parliament standing for any possible moves that could force No Deal to happen - and as such, the Tory candidates that are saying that the UK will be out of the EU on 31st October may find themselves scuppered... it could be a very short stay in No. 10 for someone...

 

[Hun200kmh]

I'm not sure I understand your last paragraph TM … I guess nothing stops now a "no deal exit" from happening next Halloween. Here's what I think, from all I read and watch from news services in the UK and also in the rest of Europe:

1 - The EU won't grant another extension and won't reopen negotiations.

2 - So, the UK now can only choose one of 3 options (of unilateral action) until the current "Brexit Day":

(i) May's Deal,

(ii) No Brexit, and

(iii) No Deal.


2 - May's deal has been rejected many times, and there's no chance the current HoC will change its mind about it. Farage would love it I'm sure.

3 - No Brexit (revoking Article 50) has also absolutely no chance to happen. Neither by Government decision, nor by Parliament's

4 - So … No Deal it is.



It'll be interesting …

 

[baldgye]

No Brexit (revoking Article 50) has also absolutely no chance to happen.

... you say that, but while no deal is the default... if it benefits who ever and is in power in October, they could in theory push and get 'no brexit' under the guise of the evil eu forcing us to change our position... but we still hate them!! We just need more time to....'plan'!!!!

 

[Touring Mars]

If there is even a chance of the EU getting a more favourable outcome than a No Deal Brexit, then there is always going to be a chance for another extension...

If Parliament continues to block a No Deal exit, then it puts the EU in an impossible position of effectively having to make the decision (to exit without a deal) for us. When push came to shove the last time, it didn't happen - I don't think it will be any different in October.

-

The flip side of the argument, however, is that even if the UK has a majority of MPs who will not support/block a No Deal Brexit, they still have to come up with an alternative plan that can also command a majority, and thus far they have failed to do so.

The question is how long can this impasse continue - my guess is that it could continue for a very long time.

--

In an important development, senior Tories who have spearheaded the campaign to block a No Deal Brexit (Dominic Grieve and Oliver Letwin) have both said today that Parliament has run out of options to avoid a No Deal Brexit...

 

[baldgye]

If there is even a chance of the EU getting a more favourable outcome than a No Deal Brexit, then there is always going to be a chance for another extension...

If Parliament continues to block a No Deal exit, then it puts the EU in an impossible position of effectively having to make the decision (to exit without a deal) for us. When push came to shove the last time, it didn't happen - I don't think it will be any different in October.

-

The flip side of the argument, however, is that even if the UK has a majority of MPs who will not support/block a No Deal Brexit, they still have to come up with an alternative plan that can also command a majority, and thus far they have failed to do so.

The question is how long can this impasse continue - my guess is that it could continue for a very long time.

--

In an important development, senior Tories who have spearheaded the campaign to block a No Deal Brexit (Dominic Grieve and Oliver Letwin) have both said today that Parliament has run out of options to avoid a No Deal Brexit...

If there was another extension it would massively benefit the Brexit party and alike... it would only build pressure on forcing No Deal imo

 

[Dave A]

If there was another extension it would massively benefit the Brexit party and alike... it would only build pressure on forcing No Deal imo

I agree, the longer this impasse goes on the more that the bigger more established parties will lose confidence and then more and more extreme parties will increase in popularity because people will think that at least thier view is clear and they know exactley what they are voting for if they choose one of those. The Brexit party being the prime example of that, capitalising on the the indecisivness of other parties MP's. The whole thing is a shambles.